s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | | MIS . L . L . L . L . L . | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | 11/26 17 | | 12/22 -રેર | 12/24 -56 | 12/25 -રેર | 12/26 -રેર | 日度变化 0 | 튀 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 47 | | -dr | -116 | -115 | -115 | 0 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | 7 | | -195 | -196 | -195 | -195 | 0 | | | | 01-03 | -12 | | -30 | -34 | -32 | -33 | -1 | | | | 02-03 | -18 | | -12 | -10 | -7 | -7 | 0 | | | | 03-06 | -45 | | -23 | -28 | -30 | -29 | 7 | | | | BU主力合约(02) | 3043 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pessimistic sentiment has been digested, and short - sellers have taken profit and left the market. The main contract has risen significantly. It is recommended to wait and see as the freight rate has no obvious fluctuations [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect. The current core is the direction of the spot freight rate. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - After the rapid recovery of the market, attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and the spot freight rate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 28th, compared with November 24th: The NCFI (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77%; the SCFIS (European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7%; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5%; the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% [1]. - On November 28th: The SCFI announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points; the CCFI (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71%; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1%; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79%; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% [1]. Economic Data of Different Regions - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6); Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was -9.2, forecast value was -8.5 [2]. - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - US October S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. Main Contract Data - On November 28th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1471.9, with a gain of 6.74%, a trading volume of 41,500 lots, and an open interest of 40,100 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to take a light - position long in the EC2602 contract in the range of 1550 - 1600. If the market drops sharply, do not add positions and do not hold on to losing positions. Set a stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, and then wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Rules Adjustments - The daily limit and daily floor for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Western Land - Sea New Corridor - As of November 29th, the Western Land - Sea New Corridor trains have cumulatively sent more than 5 million TEUs of containerized goods since 2017, reaching 5.003 million TEUs. This year alone, the volume has exceeded 1.3 million TEUs, reaching 1.308 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 55.3% [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is stabilizing, with the main contract rising and then falling, and the near - month contract maintaining basis repair. If there is a callback today, adding positions can be considered [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [5]. - Short - term, the market may rebound. Long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [6]. 3. Summary by Content a. Shipping Indexes - On July 21, SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - On July 21, NCFI (composite index) was 1147.96 points, down 5.75% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; NCFI (US West route) was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - On July 21, SCFI (composite index) was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period; SCFI (European route) was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; SCFI (US West route) was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - On July 18, CCFI (composite index) was 1303.54 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; CCFI (US West route) was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3]. b. Market Situation and Influencing Factors - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1 [5]. - The slight decline in SCFIS may be due to doubts about the implementation of the announced freight rate increase in August [5]. - There are geopolitical factors such as the Gaza cease - fire negotiation in Doha and the Iranian - European issue regarding the "rapid restoration of sanctions" [7]. c. Contract Information - On July 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1592.7, down 2.35%, with a trading volume of 69,300 lots and an open interest of 51,200 lots, a decrease of 186 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. d. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long on contract 2510 with a light position below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If there is a further pullback today, adding positions can be considered. Consider shorting contract EC2512 with a light position above 1950 [6]. - Arbitrage: In the context of international situation turmoil, the structure is mainly positive arbitrage, with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [6].