美国7月标普全球制造业PM1初值为49.5，预期52.7，前值52.9; 7月标普全球服务业PM1初值为55.2, 预期53, 前值52.9。美国7月Markit综合 PMI初值为54.6，创2024年12月以来新高，好于预期的52.8，前值为52.9。 2025年8月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 多国停发对美包裹，货量逐渐走淡，但主力合约跌幅过大，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。 | 1 | | --- | | 1 1 | | 1 | | 1 | | œ | | 1 | | 11 | | 三个 | | 1 | | 15 1 | | F 20 of Real Property 9 o 1 | | 8月18日 | 8月22日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 2180.17点，较上期下跌2.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1035.79点, 较上期下跌1.59% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1106.29点, 较上期上涨2.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1083 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see. The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. The long - term strategy is to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction. The arbitrage strategy advises waiting and seeing or light - position attempts due to large fluctuations [5][6] - The cease - fire news has limited impact on the market, and the market is volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5] Summary According to Directory Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The July services PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The July composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [3] - In the US, the July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] - The July manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in China was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [4] Market Conditions - On August 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1370.3, a decline of 0.80%, with a trading volume of 27,300 lots and an open interest of 52,800 lots, a decrease of 383 lots from the previous day [5] Geopolitical Situation - On August 18, Hamas announced its agreement to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar, but Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed uninterested, and Israel was advancing its so - called "takeover" of Gaza City [7] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [6] - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group 1. Overall Market Situation - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies slightly lowered freight rates. The futures market fluctuated significantly, with prices rising and then falling. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%, and for the US - West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. 2. Economic Indicators - In the eurozone, the July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index reached 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - In the US, the July Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. 3. Trade Policy and Geopolitical Situation - Trump's administration continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which affected transit trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a 25% small - scale price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties make market trading difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 4. Futures Market Analysis 4.1 Short - term Strategy - The short - term futures market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - short positions were recommended and profit - taking is advised. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and stop - losses should be set [5]. 4.2 Arbitrage Strategy - In the context of international instability, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take light - position attempts [5]. 4.3 Long - term Strategy - For all contracts, it is recommended to take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction before making further decisions [5]. 4.4 Market Data - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. 5. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [5].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the shipping market has high trading risks and large fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Short - term rebounds are possible, and long - term positions should be taken profit when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize before making further decisions [2][5]. Detailed Summaries Market Price Index - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period, and 1130.12 points for the US West route, down 12.0% [3]. - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period, 1372.67 points for the European route, down 3.53%, and 1114.45 points for the US West route, down 0.54% [3]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period, the European line price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%, and the US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% [3]. - On August 1, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period, 1789.50 points for the European route, up 0.1%, and 876.57 points for the US West route, down 0.5% [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month [4]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53. The composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Geopolitical Factors - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market [5]. - On August 5, the Houthi armed forces attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport [5]. - Germany's Deputy Prime Minister called on the EU to take a tougher stance in trade negotiations with the US [6]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: For risk - takers, those who have taken long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 can take partial profits, and those who have short positions in the EC2512 contract can take profits. Set stop - losses and avoid holding losing positions [5]. - Arbitrage: Due to international instability, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take light positions [5]. - Long - term: Take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize before making further decisions [5]. Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On August 5, the main contract 2510 closed at 1413.0, up 0.63%, with a trading volume of 3.06 million lots and an open interest of 5.21 million lots, an increase of 1055 lots from the previous day [5]. Contract Adjustments - For contracts from 2508 to 2606, the daily limit is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit is 100 lots [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment is bearish, with significant declines in commodities and the futures market showing weak oscillations and high volatility. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading environment is complex, and it is advised to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [2]. - In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market News - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, down 4.66%, with a trading volume of 46,300 lots and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term futures market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and partially take profits; they were also advised to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with high volatility. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, it was recommended to take profits when prices rose, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, tariff hikes, and high negotiation difficulty, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract, partially take profits, and take light short positions for the EC2512 contract, paying attention to subsequent market trends and setting stop - losses [4]. - In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take light positions for arbitrage strategies [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [3]. - On July 30, the main contract 2510 closed at 1468.7, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 66,300 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, an increase of 4148 lots from the previous day [4]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, expected to be 49.8, the same as the previous value; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, expected to be 50.5, the same as the previous value; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, expected to be - 6, higher than the previous value of - 8.1 [3]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, back above the critical point [3]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [3]. Policy and Event Impact - Trump continued to impose tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases [4]. - The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been determined, with a slight price increase [4]. - The China - US economic and trade talks ended. It was stated that the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs that had been suspended and China's counter - measures would continue to be extended for 90 days. The overall market sentiment was strong, and the market rose and then fell back [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers are advised to take light long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), partially take profits; take light short positions for the EC2512 contract, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is stabilizing, with the main contract rising and then falling, and the near - month contract maintaining basis repair. If there is a callback today, adding positions can be considered [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [5]. - Short - term, the market may rebound. Long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [6]. 3. Summary by Content a. Shipping Indexes - On July 21, SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - On July 21, NCFI (composite index) was 1147.96 points, down 5.75% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; NCFI (US West route) was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - On July 21, SCFI (composite index) was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period; SCFI (European route) was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; SCFI (US West route) was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - On July 18, CCFI (composite index) was 1303.54 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; CCFI (US West route) was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3]. b. Market Situation and Influencing Factors - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1 [5]. - The slight decline in SCFIS may be due to doubts about the implementation of the announced freight rate increase in August [5]. - There are geopolitical factors such as the Gaza cease - fire negotiation in Doha and the Iranian - European issue regarding the "rapid restoration of sanctions" [7]. c. Contract Information - On July 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1592.7, down 2.35%, with a trading volume of 69,300 lots and an open interest of 51,200 lots, a decrease of 186 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. d. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long on contract 2510 with a light position below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If there is a further pullback today, adding positions can be considered. Consider shorting contract EC2512 with a light position above 1950 [6]. - Arbitrage: In the context of international situation turmoil, the structure is mainly positive arbitrage, with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The far - month basis has been repaired, meeting the daily report's expectations. With the US Treasury Secretary stating that China - US negotiations are in a "good situation", investors can consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3]. - The short - term market is expected to rebound. Risk - takers who went long on the 2510 contract below 1300 can consider partial profit - taking if it continues to rise today, and it is recommended to short the EC2512 contract lightly above 1650 (with a stop - loss if participating). In the context of international situation turmoil, the structure is mainly in positive carry, with large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [4]. Summary by Related Content Shipping Indexes - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1266.59 points, down 18.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% from the previous period [2]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [2]. - In the US, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. Market and Policy - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market, with a slight rebound in the market [3]. - On July 15, the main contract 2510 closed at 1655.6, up 15.38%, with a trading volume of 107,800 lots and an open interest of 46,600 lots, an increase of 13,685 lots from the previous day [3]. - The sharp rise in the SCFIS for the European route drove bullish sentiment. With the roll - over of the main contract and the basis repair logic, the 2510 contract rose significantly. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Trade Tensions - The EU is prepared to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth about 84 billion US dollars if the US - EU trade negotiation fails. Trump announced on July 12 that he would impose a 30% tariff on some EU imports starting from August 1 [5]. - A US Republican senator threatened countries including China with a 500% tariff if they continue to trade with Russia. China firmly opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions and long - arm jurisdiction and hopes for peaceful solutions to the Ukraine crisis [5]. Trading Regulations - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading in the shipping market is challenging. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Trump plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% or 20% on almost all remaining trading partners, targeting Southeast Asian countries to crack down on re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1st, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The spot market price range is set, with small price hikes to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the market [2][4]. - The cease - fire in Gaza cannot be reached immediately, and the Houthi rebels continue to attack Israeli - related ships. Spot freight rates are stable, and the market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing the market to fluctuate widely [2]. - On July 11, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.6, down 0.71%, with a trading volume of 34,600 lots and an open interest of 30,900 lots, a decrease of 403 lots from the previous day [2]. Freight Rate Index - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. The preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high, with an expected value of 50 and a previous value of 49.7. The preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected value of 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected value of 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected value of 52.1, a two - month low [1]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market is likely to rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking when the market rallies today. For the EC2512 contract, a light short position is recommended above 1650, with stop - loss and take - profit levels set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international instability, the market shows a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light - position attempt [3]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, take profit when the price rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, the difficulty of trading is high. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has been passed, and attention should be paid to whether US terminal consumption is boosted. With large fluctuations in commodities recently, the European line has strong macro - attributes, and the difficulty of trading is high. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price support. The Trump administration does not plan to extend the tariff negotiation period, and the spot market price range is set, with small price increases to test the market and a small rebound in the futures market. The Middle East situation shows signs of easing, the spot freight rate changes slightly, and the market is full of mixed long - and short - term information, with intense trading and wide - range fluctuations in the futures market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period. On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In June, the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous value 49.4), the added value of the service - industry PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7), the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous value 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous value - 8.1) [2]. - **China**: The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [2]. - **US**: In June, the preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February); the preliminary value of the service - industry PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. 3.3 Futures Market - **July 3, 2508 Contract**: The closing price was 1896.9, with a gain of 0.11%, the trading volume was 28,500 lots, and the open interest was 35,900 lots, a decrease of 388 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term futures market is expected to rebound. It is recommended to lightly short the 2508 contract when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points), and consider taking profits on short positions. For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly go long on the 2510 contract below 1300, and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. - **Circuit Breaker and Margin Adjustment**: The circuit breaker for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, and the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].