Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 Interpretation of EC Contract Rule Adjustments EC 合约规则调整解读 | 武嘉璐 | Wu | Jialu | 从业资格号 | Qualification | No：F03100682 | 投资咨询号 | Consulting No.：Z0021085 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 安崨锐 | An | Jierui | 从业资格号 | Qualification | No：F03117373 | 投资咨询号 | Consulting No.：Z0022651 | | 桂晨曦 | Gui | Chenxi | 从业资格号 | Qualification | No：F3023159 | 投资咨询号 | Consulting No：Z0013632 | Read more English repo ...

期货研究报告|航运专题报告 2026-02-04 蔡劭立 0755-23887993 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 核心观点 能源中心拟修订《上海国际能源交易中心集运指数（欧线）期货标准合约》，具体内容 如下： 一是将合约月份由"2、4、6、8、10、12 月"调整为"最近 1-6 个月为连续月份（2 月除外），以及随后两个季月"。拟挂牌最近 1-6 个月连续月份合约，便于产业客户精 确匹配期货和现货的到期时间、提高套期保值效率；考虑到 2 月（春节假期期间）集 运现货市场较为清淡，拟剔除 2 月合约；同时，为保持挂牌合约覆盖一年期限，6 个月 后拟挂牌 2 个季月合约。调整后，挂牌合约数量将由 6 个增加到 7-8 个。 EC 标准合约修订，合约增加背景下的运价规律 探究 研究院 FICC 组 研究员 高聪 二是将最小变动价位由"0.1 点"调整为"0.5 点"。根据目前集运市场报价情况，拟将 最小变动价位修改为 0.5 点。 在新的合约规则下，上市合约为近 1-6 个月为连续月份（2 月除外），以及随后两个季 月，该背景下需要更为详细探究月度价格的季节性特点，为投资未来的单边以及套 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced revisions to the minimum tick size and contract month terms for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures, aimed at enhancing service to the shipping and foreign trade industries and improving risk management capabilities for market participants [1][2][6]. Summary by Sections Contract Adjustments - The minimum tick size is adjusted to 0.5 points, and the contract months will now include continuous months within the last six months of the year and the following two seasonal months [6][7]. - The implementation dates are set for February 10, 2026, for the contract month adjustments and May 11, 2026, for the minimum tick size changes [6]. Market Response and Functionality - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures have maintained active trading and stable operation since their launch, with domestic and foreign freight forwarding companies and foreign trade enterprises actively using futures for hedging [6][7]. - The revisions are based on feedback from various stakeholders, including index compilers, shipping industry chain enterprises, futures company members, and individual traders, to better meet the needs of industry clients [6][7]. Benefits of the Revisions - The change from bi-monthly to continuous month contracts is expected to narrow basis fluctuations, thereby reducing risks in industry spot and futures trading [7]. - The removal of the February contract reflects seasonal characteristics of the industry while adding nearly six months of continuous contracts to enhance overall market matching [7][8]. - The adjustments are anticipated to improve contract quoting efficiency and market participation depth, attracting a broader range of international participants and enhancing the price discovery function [8]. Future Directions - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to continue optimizing contract rules to better meet market participant needs and promote effective functioning of the futures market, supporting high-quality development in the shipping industry [8].

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has announced revisions to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Index (European Line) futures contract, effective from February 10, 2026 [1] - The contract months will include EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609, while EC2603 will not be added due to the transition of the main contract [1] - The minimum price fluctuation will be adjusted starting May 11, 2026, with specific rules for price adjustments based on the last digit of the contract price [2] Group 2 - The previous settlement price on May 8, 2026, will be used as the front settlement price for May 11, 2026 [2] - Adjusted prices will be applied to limit price movements and margin calculations, with updates reflected in trading systems and market information [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The online quotes of shipping lines such as MSC and Maersk increased in the second half of January, causing the valuation of the 02 contract to rise continuously [1][4][5]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract," including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [4]. - The far - month contracts are under pressure from the resumption of the Suez Canal, and their valuations may be revised downward, but there is still uncertainty in the adjustment space. Contracts in June and August, which are relatively peak seasons, still face uncertainty [6]. - The 02 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the unilateral strategy, and there is no recommendation for the arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 4, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 54,478 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 26,823 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1801.30, 1166.00, 1367.90, 1500.00, 1060.00, and 1297.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - Shipping lines' online quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route changed in January. For example, Maersk's quote in the second week of January was 1600/2580, and in the third week it was 1625/2610; HPL's quote in the first half of January was 1835/3035, and in the second half it was 2135/3535. MSC's price in the first half of January was 1700/2840, and in the second half it was 1880/3140 [1]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 26 was 1690 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2188 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3033 dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 29 was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1301.41 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply Static Supply - As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU [2]. - For ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, the expected delivery in 2026 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, the expected delivery in 2026 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029 [2]. Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, with capacities of 355,600, 309,400, 330,700, and 278,700 TEU in Weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. In February, the average weekly capacity was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 272,400 TEU [3]. - There were 3 blank sailings (2 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (1 by the OA Alliance) in January, 7 TBNs (4 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 4 blank sailings in February, and 3 blank sailings and 7 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) has fully resumed operation since January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single - trial operation. Maersk's container ship "Maersk Sebarok" completed its first Red Sea voyage since its withdrawal in January 2024 on December 19, 2025 [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy No relevant detailed analysis content provided in the text.

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the shipping index futures contract to better meet the needs of industrial clients and enhance service quality in shipping and foreign trade [1] Group 1: Contract Adjustments - The contract months will be adjusted from "February, April, June, August, October, December" to "the most recent 1-6 months as consecutive months (excluding February), and the following two seasonal months" [1] - The number of listed contracts will increase from 6 to 7-8, allowing for better alignment of futures and spot contract expiration dates for industrial clients [1] Group 2: Minimum Price Fluctuation - The minimum price fluctuation will be changed from "0.1 points" to "0.5 points" based on the current shipping market quotation situation [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the Shanghai International Energy Exchange Shipping Index (European Line) futures standard contract and is seeking public feedback [1] - The contract months will be adjusted from "February, April, June, August, October, December" to "the most recent 1-6 months as consecutive months (excluding February), and the following two seasonal months" [1] - The number of listed contracts will increase from 6 to 7-8, allowing for better alignment of futures and spot expiration dates for industry clients and improving hedging efficiency [1] Group 2 - The minimum price fluctuation will be changed from "0.1 points" to "0.5 points" based on current shipping market pricing conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the 20th rubber futures contract and delivery rules to enhance the global resource allocation capability and better serve the real economy [1] Group 1: Contract Revisions - The exchange intends to add alternative products for the 20th rubber futures, which can be used for physical delivery [1] - The revision will include an update to the contract's annex, establishing quality standards for the alternative products in addition to the existing "standard product" quality standards [1] Group 2: Delivery Rules Updates - The delivery rules will be amended to include references to both "standard products" and "alternative products" in Chapter 13 [1] - Updates will also be made regarding the thickness of rubber film to better align with changes in national standards [1]