投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美股下挫，避险需求上升，市场关 注杰克逊霍尔会议 | | 铜 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 国内旺季临近，产业支撑增强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日金价在亚洲盘后持续回升，这很大程度上是由 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight US stocks tumbled and the stock market corrected yesterday, leading to a subdued market sentiment at today's opening. After the mid - session, optimism resurfaced, possibly influenced by some positive interim report data and the expectation of eased Sino - US relations. Short - term market sentiment remains volatile, with shrinking trading volume, indicating that some funds have become cautious. The market is expected to fluctuate near the pressure line for some time, awaiting signals of the Fed's monetary policy adjustment at the Jackson Hole meeting. Currently, maintain positions and be prepared to hedge against downside risks. Given the continuous rise of futures basis boosted by sentiment, using options for hedging may be a better choice [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index rose with shrinking volume, and the small and medium - cap stocks performed relatively strongly, while the gap between large and small - cap stocks narrowed. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 180.1 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues, and the current work is progressing smoothly. - The parade will last about 70 minutes and will showcase some strategic heavy weapons, high - precision strike equipment, and unmanned and anti - unmanned equipment from the land, sea, and air for the first time [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Insurance strategy: Hold spot and buy put options [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 1.16 | 1.08 | 1.40 | 1.23 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.0668 | 6.3114 | 11.9244 | 29.8722 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 2.1399 | 0.0678 | 1.6892 | 6.2534 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.7018 | 10.6633 | 22.8358 | 40.0625 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.8761 | 0.2909 | 0.7608 | 2.3675 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 1.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.89 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 2.35 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2408.234 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | - 180.135 | [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short term, oscillate in the medium term, and show a weak oscillation intraday, with a short - term bearish view. Copper is expected to oscillate in the short and medium terms, show a weak oscillation intraday, and the recommended approach is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term view: Decline; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Intraday view: Weak oscillation; Reference view: Short - term bearish. The core logic is that the improvement in the Russia - Ukraine situation and the rebound of the US dollar index put pressure on the gold price, while the callback of the Nasdaq and the Jackson Hole meeting may provide some support. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the $3300 level of London gold [1][3]. Copper - Short - term view: Oscillation; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Intraday view: Weak oscillation; Reference view: Wait and see. The core logic is that the domestic macro situation has cooled, the US - Russia relationship has improved, the US dollar index has rebounded, and the copper price may continue to be under pressure. The main contract price of Shanghai copper fell to the 78,500 level [1][4].

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI year-on-year is at 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month change is 0.2%, matching expectations[3] - Core CPI year-on-year increased to 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3.0% and up from the previous 2.9%[3] - Food prices year-on-year decreased from 3.0% to 2.9%, with household food prices dropping from 2.4% to 2.2%[6] - Energy prices year-on-year fell from -7.9% to -9.0%, with a month-on-month decline of 1.9%[6] Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock markets rose, while bond yields and the dollar index fell, indicating increased market expectations for interest rate cuts[4] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 94.3% as of August 13[9] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August is critical for assessing the Fed's stance on interest rates based on the inflation data[4] Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation is driven by significant price increases in clothing, new cars, and used cars, with used car prices rising from 2.8% to 4.8% year-on-year[6] - Housing costs continue to be a drag on core services, with rent prices decreasing from 3.8% to 3.5% year-on-year[6] - Medical services saw a notable increase, with prices rising from 3.4% to 4.3% year-on-year, influenced by fiscal reforms and sector layoffs[6]