Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton Under Pressure, New Cotton Gradually Coming to Market - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: October 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Domestically, after the National Day holiday, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded with fluctuations, reaching a maximum of 13,420 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton increased slightly. As the purchase of seed cotton fully unfolds, the supply pressure gradually increases, and hedging currently has a small profit, significantly suppressing Zhengzhou cotton. Technically, Zhengzhou cotton tried to rebound but was pressured around 13,500 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is support around 13,000 yuan/ton and significant pressure around 13,500 yuan/ton [53]. - Internationally, due to the U.S. government shutdown and data suspension, the market sentiment is cautious, and market fluctuations may be limited before data resumes. Fundamentally, countries such as India, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh face significant resistance in exporting cotton products and clothing to the U.S. due to substantial tariff increases. As a countermeasure, they will increase purchases of Brazilian cotton, and U.S. cotton exports face certain challenges. It is expected that U.S. cotton will be under pressure and remain weak [53]. Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Prices - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. ICE cotton futures continued to be weak, with a weekly decline of 1.45% [9]. Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index increased. The 3128 index rose by 17 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose by 4 yuan/ton [13]. Import Situation - In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons [18]. Inventory Situation - As of the first half of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons compared to the second half of August [19]. Downstream Inventory - In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year-on-year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year-on-year increase of 4.11 days [26]. Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices decreased. The price of 10 - count air - spun cotton yarn decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn decreased by 155 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn decreased by 150 yuan/ton [31]. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 554. The number of warehouse receipts was 3,030, and the valid forecasts were 11, totaling 3,041 [37]. Seed Cotton Purchase - The purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased slightly compared to the previous week [42]. U.S. Cotton Exports - As of September 11, the current - year net export sales of U.S. upland cotton increased by 186,100 bales, and the next - year net export sales were 19,000 bales [44][47]. U.S. Weather - The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 34.2%, with different drought levels having varying proportions [50]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton has support around 13,000 yuan/ton and significant pressure around 13,500 yuan/ton in the short term [53]. - Internationally, the market may have limited fluctuations before data resumes, and U.S. cotton exports face challenges and are expected to remain weak [53].

Report Title - "Fund Game Escalates, Zhengzhou Cotton Accelerates Upward - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [2] Core Views - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton broke through and rose this week. Without additional quotas or state reserve sales, the supply shortage intensified as the basis continued to rise. With rising cotton prices, yarn quotes also increased significantly. Short - term supply shortage is difficult to resolve without external supply increase, and price rise is a reasonable outcome. The upward trend depends on position changes and unexpected policy implementation, and a significant reduction in positions is needed to end the rally [51]. - Internationally, the US initiated a new round of tariff hikes, and negotiations are ongoing. US cotton weekly export data remained weak, with this - year's signing declining seasonally and next - year's signing lackluster. US main growing areas, especially Texas, saw a drop in the drought index and a continuous rise in the good - to - excellent rate. US cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound [51]. Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose strongly this week, with a weekly increase of 2.77%. ICE cotton futures were strong, with a weekly increase of 2.24% [9]. Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 255 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index increased by 242 yuan/ton [14]. Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17]. Inventory Situation - In June, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 443,700 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 903,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,500 tons [25]. Downstream Inventory - In June, the yarn inventory was 27.23 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.71 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.61 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.58 days [30]. Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S increased by 160 yuan/ton, C32S by 240 yuan/ton, and JC40S by 280 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 276. There were 9,585 warehouse receipts and 223 valid forecasts, totaling 9,808 [38]. US Cotton Export - As of July 10, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 5,500 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 73,000 bales [41]. Market Outlook - Domestic: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton depends on position changes and unexpected policy implementation. A significant reduction in positions is needed to end the rally [51]. - International: US cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound [51]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term trading is recommended [52]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Weakening Consumption, Lackluster Rebound of Zhengzhou Cotton - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" and was released on June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Domestically, this week Zhengzhou cotton oscillated within a narrow range, and the market trend was indecisive. The basis in Xinjiang continued to strengthen, with a supply shortage in some areas. Consumption pressure remained high, with a decline in the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises, an accumulation of finished - product inventories, and a lack of new orders. The impact of high - temperature forecasts in southern Xinjiang on cotton growth was expected to be limited. Internationally, in the short term, cotton prices were affected by oil price fluctuations due to the international situation. The war situation would continue to disrupt the market. Fundamentally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Precipitation increased recently, and the drought index in most areas dropped to 0. There were few catalysts for U.S. cotton. China's procurement of U.S. cotton was at a standstill. Overall, there were no major fundamental contradictions, and prices might fluctuate following macro - events [52] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated within a narrow range this week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%. ICE cotton futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.81% [11] Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 59 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 37 yuan/ton [15] Cotton Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17] Cotton Inventory Situation - In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [26] Downstream Inventory Situation - In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [31] Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices remained stable. The prices of OE 10s, Combed 32s, and Combed 40s cotton yarns were the same as last week [34] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 161. There were 10,607 warehouse receipts and 308 valid forecasts, totaling 10,915 [38] U.S. Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of June 5, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current market year increased by 60,200 bales, and the net sales for the next market year were 36,100 bales [41] U.S. Weather Situation - The drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Recently, precipitation increased in the main producing areas, and the drought index in most areas except Texas and Arizona dropped to 0 [52] Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, the market was in a stalemate, with supply shortages in some areas and high consumption pressure. The impact of high - temperature forecasts on cotton growth needed further monitoring. Internationally, the market was affected by the international situation and war. Fundamentally, U.S. cotton lacked catalysts, and China's procurement was at a standstill. Overall, prices might fluctuate with macro - events [52]

研究所 宏观变动脱敏 郑棉转为震荡 ——国信期货棉花周报 2025年4月20日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 2 后市展望 郑棉本周小幅下挫，周度跌幅0.66%。ICE期棉转为震荡，周涨幅0.15%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 1、现货价格 研究所 本周棉花价格指数继续下挫。3128指数较上周下跌59元/吨，2129指数较上周下跌66元/吨。 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 2020年1月 2020年3月 2020年5月 2020年7月 2020年9月 2020年11月 2021年1月 2021年3月 2021年5月 2021年7月 2021年9月 2021年11月 2022年1月 2022年3月 2022年5月 2022年7月 2022年9月 2022年11月 2023年1月 2023年3月 2023年5月 2023年7月 2023年9月 2023年11月 20 ...