1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US negotiation has made progress with mutual tariff cuts. There is a 90 - day window period, during which foreign - trade textile enterprises start to rush for export production. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou Cotton will rebound to the previous gap area in the short term, but the selling pressure above increases, and the upward momentum weakens. It will maintain a sideways consolidation in the range of 13200 - 13500 in the short term [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a 90 - day foreign - trade export order - grabbing period, along with the futures price approaching historical lows. Negatives are the overall decline in foreign - trade orders, increased inventory, and the EU's new restrictive legislation [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The Sino - US negotiation has made progress with mutual tariff cuts. The USDA May report shows a decrease in production and an increase in consumption in the 25/26 season, with unchanged ending inventory. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. China's cotton imports in April were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The rural department's April forecast for the 24/25 season is a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.31 million tons. It is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,595, and the basis is 1265 (for the 09 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's April forecast for ending inventory in the 24/25 season is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the mutual tariff cuts in the Sino - US negotiation and a 90 - day window period, foreign - trade textile enterprises start to rush for export production. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou Cotton will rebound to the previous gap area in the short term, but the selling pressure above increases, and the upward momentum weakens. It will maintain a sideways consolidation in the range of 13200 - 13500 in the short term [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (USDA)**: The total global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Imports are expected to be 9.759 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Ending inventory is expected to be 17.065 million tons, with little change year - on - year [10][11]. - **Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 24/25 season (April estimate), production is 5.62 million tons, imports are 3.25 million tons, consumption is 7.69 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.28 million tons. In the 25/26 season (May forecast), production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.53 million tons [18]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is bearish [4].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are neutral due to factors such as production, import, consumption, and inventory data. The basis shows a premium over futures, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, but the main position is bearish and the overall inventory is relatively high. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton's main 09 contract is expected to rebound to the previous gap area, then experience a short - term shock and decline as the upward momentum weakens and selling pressure increases [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period, along with the futures price approaching historical lows. Negative factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and European regulations restricting imports [5]. Section Summaries 1. Previous Day Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the 25/26 annual report of USDA, cotton production decreased while consumption increased, and the ending inventory remained unchanged. In April, China's textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated the 24/25 annual production at 6.16 million tons, imports at 1.5 million tons, consumption at 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.31 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,606 yuan, with a basis of 1221 yuan (for the 09 contract), showing a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The estimated ending inventory in the 24/25 April report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.31 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the mutual tariff reduction in the China - US negotiation and a 90 - day window period, foreign - trade textile enterprises start to rush for export production. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton will rebound to the previous gap area in the short term, but the upward momentum will weaken, and the market will experience a short - term shock and decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: The report provides the USDA's global cotton production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data from 2020/21 to 2025/26, showing the production and consumption trends of major cotton - producing and consuming countries such as China, India, the US, etc. For example, in 2025/26, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.314 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9% [10]. - **China's Cotton Supply and Demand**: The report shows China's cotton supply and demand balance sheet from 2019 to 2024, including harvest area, beginning inventory, production, import, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [13]. - **Short - fiber and Polyester Prices**: It presents the price trends of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber [21]. - **Processing and Spinning Profits**: It shows the daily processing profit of ginneries and the daily spot profit of spinning mills in China [26][29]. - **Import Volume and Operating Rates**: It includes China's monthly import volume of cotton yarn, the weekly operating rate of pure - cotton yarn mills, and the weekly operating rate of weaving mills [34][36][38]. 5. Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, tracking its fundamentals, presenting macro and industry news, and indicating a trend strength of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,415 yuan/ton with a -0.22% daily increase and 13,410 yuan/ton in the night session with a -0.04% increase; CY2507 closed at 19,700 yuan/ton with a -0.38% daily increase and 19,715 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.08% increase; ICE US Cotton 07 closed at 65.49 cents/pound with a -0.09% daily increase [1] - **Transaction and Position Data**: CF2509 had 280,491 transactions, a decrease of 26,087 from the previous day, and a position of 764,431, an increase of 3,176; CY2507 had 6,779 transactions, a decrease of 1,999, and a position of 21,156, an increase of 1,045 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton had 11,546 warehouse receipts, an increase of 60, and 366 valid forecasts, a decrease of 111; cotton yarn had 35 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 0 valid forecasts, an increase of 35 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or -0.21%; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or -0.21%; Shandong was priced at 14,547 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan or 0.32%; Hebei was priced at 14,361 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan or 0.22%; the 3128B index was priced at 14,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.28% [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The CF9 - 1 price difference was -75 yuan/ton, an increase of 15; the difference between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was increasingly sluggish, and the mainstream basis was stable. Different regions in Southern Xinjiang had different sales basis levels for 2024/25 cotton [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The transaction of pure cotton yarn improved, with 40 - count yarn performing relatively well. Spinning mills continued to raise prices, with an accumulated increase of 300 - 500 yuan/ton, and market confidence improved [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton first fell and then rose. The July contract was weaker than the December contract because the USDA's upward adjustment of old - crop exports was lower than market expectations, weakening the support for old - crop contracts [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is -1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The China-US negotiation has made progress with mutual tariff cuts, and the textile industry's prosperity index in March rebounded above the 52.47% boom-bust line. The ICAC's May report forecasts an increase in production and a slight increase in consumption compared to last month, which is bearish. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. In March, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 81.4%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that in the 24/25 season, production will be 6.16 million tons, imports 1.5 million tons, consumption 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory 8.31 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - The basis of spot 3128b with a national average price of 14,187 has a basis of 947 (for the 09 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of China's ending inventory in the 24/25 season is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - The main positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - In April, textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year, indicating good export performance. With the China - US negotiation's mutual tariff cuts and last week's interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, there are many short - term positives, and the futures have rebounded rapidly. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have a short - term rebound, and a cautious bullish intraday trading strategy is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the given content. 3.2每日提示 - Bullish factors: Futures prices are close to historical lows [6]. - Bearish factors: Decrease in foreign trade orders, increase in inventory, US tariff hikes, stagnant exports to the US, and European regulations restricting imports [6]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the given content. 3.4基本面数据 - **Global Production and Consumption**: In 2024/25 (April forecast), global cotton production is 26.321 million tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 7%. Global consumption is 25.261 million tons, a decrease of 114,000 tons from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 1% [11]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: In 2024/25 (April forecast), China's cotton production is 6.16 million tons, imports are 1.5 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.31 million tons. The estimated average domestic cotton 3128B price is 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is 75 - 100 cents/pound [4][19]. 3.5持仓数据 No information provided in the given content.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to remain the same, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak in the short - term and continue to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Traders can consider shorting on rallies in the short - term [7][12][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: Uncertain weather may affect growth, and increased purchases from countries like Vietnam may have a positive impact. Short - term trend is expected to remain the same [7] - **US Cotton Growth**: As of May 4, the planting rate was 21%, 2% slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The main producing areas are still dry [7] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of May 1, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased, 2025/26 cumulative signing declined, and 2024/25 weekly shipment increased. Pima cotton signing and shipment also increased [7] - **CFTC Position**: As of May 2, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2507 contract decreased, and the total number of unpriced contracts of 24/25 sellers decreased, while the total number of ICE unpriced contracts increased [7] - **Other Countries**: Brazil's Mato Grosso state is expected to have a slight increase in seed cotton production. India's weekly cotton listing volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative listing volume accounted for 91% of the predicted output [7] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated this week. After the release of macro - sentiment, it is expected to be weak in the short - term [12] - **Supply Side**: As of mid - April, China's commercial cotton inventory was 415.26 tons. As of April 15, the national cotton direct - seeding progress was 75%, and Xinjiang's planting intention area increased by 1.8% [12] - **Demand Side**: After "Golden March and Silver April", the market enters the off - season. As of May 8, the mainstream spinning mills' operating rate was 74.4%, and it is expected to decline next week. There are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream sectors [12] Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5156 yesterday, and the implied volatility of some options increased slightly [19] - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: Sell call options [19][21] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, cotton supply is sufficient and demand is average. After "Golden March and Silver April", the market enters the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. In the long - term, the US economy may face recession, and cotton prices are expected to decline [21] - **Specific Strategies**: Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly strong, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - to - long - term. Consider shorting on rallies. Arbitrage: Short September and long January. Option: Sell call options [21] Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Data on internal and external cotton price differences and 9 - 1 - month price difference trends are presented [23][24] - **Mid - end Situation**: Data on the operating rate and inventory days of pure cotton spinning mills and all - cotton fabric mills are shown [26] - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' industrial inventory, and reserve inventory over the years are provided [27] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: Data on the basis of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton are presented [29]