交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月28日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税。USDA5月报：25/26年度产量下降，消费增 加，期末库存不变。海关：4月纺织品服装出口241.9亿美元，同比增1.5%。4月份我国 棉花进口6万吨，同比减少82.2%；棉纱进口12万吨，同比减少1.4%。农村部4月24/25 年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14595，基差1265（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏空；偏空。 6：预期：中美谈判互降关税，90天窗口期，外贸纺织企业启动抢出口生产，郑棉主力 09短期反弹至前期缺口附近，上方卖压增加，进一步上冲动力减弱，短期维持13200- 13500区间横盘整理。 大越期货投资咨询部 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税。USDA5月报：25/26年度产量下降，消费增 加，期末库存不变。海关：4月纺织品服装出口241.9亿美元，同比增1.5%。4月份我国 棉花进口6万吨，同比减少82.2%；棉纱进口12万吨，同比减少1.4%。农村部4月24/25 年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14606，基差1221（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空。 4、盘 ...

2025 年 5 月 16 日 棉花：关注整体市场情绪的变化 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 | 元/吨 | 13,415 | -0.22% | 13410 | -0.04% | | | CY2507 | 元/吨 | 19,700 | -0.38% | 19715 | 0.08% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 65.49 | -0.09% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 280,491 | -26,087 | 764,431 | 3,176 | | | CY2507 | 手 | 6,779 | -1,999 | 21,156 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线 上方。ICAC:5月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费略增，偏空。海关：4月纺织品服装出 口241.9亿美元，同比增1.5%。3月份我国棉花进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口 13万吨，同比减少31%。农村部4月24/25年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760 万吨，期末库存831万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14187，基差947（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to remain the same, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak in the short - term and continue to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Traders can consider shorting on rallies in the short - term [7][12][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: Uncertain weather may affect growth, and increased purchases from countries like Vietnam may have a positive impact. Short - term trend is expected to remain the same [7] - **US Cotton Growth**: As of May 4, the planting rate was 21%, 2% slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The main producing areas are still dry [7] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of May 1, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased, 2025/26 cumulative signing declined, and 2024/25 weekly shipment increased. Pima cotton signing and shipment also increased [7] - **CFTC Position**: As of May 2, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2507 contract decreased, and the total number of unpriced contracts of 24/25 sellers decreased, while the total number of ICE unpriced contracts increased [7] - **Other Countries**: Brazil's Mato Grosso state is expected to have a slight increase in seed cotton production. India's weekly cotton listing volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative listing volume accounted for 91% of the predicted output [7] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated this week. After the release of macro - sentiment, it is expected to be weak in the short - term [12] - **Supply Side**: As of mid - April, China's commercial cotton inventory was 415.26 tons. As of April 15, the national cotton direct - seeding progress was 75%, and Xinjiang's planting intention area increased by 1.8% [12] - **Demand Side**: After "Golden March and Silver April", the market enters the off - season. As of May 8, the mainstream spinning mills' operating rate was 74.4%, and it is expected to decline next week. There are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream sectors [12] Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5156 yesterday, and the implied volatility of some options increased slightly [19] - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: Sell call options [19][21] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, cotton supply is sufficient and demand is average. After "Golden March and Silver April", the market enters the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. In the long - term, the US economy may face recession, and cotton prices are expected to decline [21] - **Specific Strategies**: Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly strong, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - to - long - term. Consider shorting on rallies. Arbitrage: Short September and long January. Option: Sell call options [21] Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Data on internal and external cotton price differences and 9 - 1 - month price difference trends are presented [23][24] - **Mid - end Situation**: Data on the operating rate and inventory days of pure cotton spinning mills and all - cotton fabric mills are shown [26] - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' industrial inventory, and reserve inventory over the years are provided [27] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: Data on the basis of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton are presented [29]