Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton industry in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - ICE U.S. cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The main contract 03 settled at 64.66 cents, with a daily decline of 0.08% but a weekly increase of 0.39% supported by the neutral - positive USDA monthly supply - demand report. Zhengzhou cotton rose and then pulled back. Although downstream textile enterprises are facing the Spring Festival holiday, due to the expected limited pull - back during the new capacity release stage and the expectation of tight supply after the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton generally maintains a bullish outlook [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - ICE March contract settled at 64.66, down 5 points; May at 66.23, down 4 points; July at 67.65, down 4 points, with about 33,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 404,268 and an open interest of 1,158,946. The settlement prices were 14,710 for January, 14,640 for May, and 14,790 for September [2]. Important Information - In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a 9.6% increase from October (110,000 tons) and a 4.8% increase year - on - year (116,000 tons). Brazilian cotton accounted for 27% of total imports, West African cotton 26%, and Indian cotton 21% [2]. - As of the week of January 10, Egyptian cotton net export contracts were 3,783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week (1,075 tons). New contracts mainly came from China (2,427 tons) and India (853 tons). The shipment volume was 25 tons, a significant decrease from the previous week (1,651 tons). The average price of Giza 94 new cotton was 146 cents/pound, up 1 cent/pound from the previous week [2]. - Recently, the cotton - growing areas in Pakistan have been cool and dry. The winter rainfall is still below the average. Sporadic seed cotton is continuously transported to ginning mills. The total output of new cotton in Pakistan is expected to be between 1.085 and 1.124 million tons. The price of seed cotton is stable, ranging from 6,500 to 8,200 rupees per 40 kilograms depending on the quality [2]. - According to the USDA's January 2026 U.S. cotton supply - demand forecast report, the planting area in the U.S. in 2025/26 is 56.345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu from the previous month. Due to the abandonment rate dropping to 15.9% (a decrease of 4.8 percentage points), the harvested area increased to 47.376 million mu, an increase of 2.647 million mu from the previous month. The expected yield per mu is 64 kg, a decrease of 5.5 kg from the previous month. The expected output is 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. The expected consumption is 348,000 tons, with a decrease of 5.9% from the previous month. The expected export volume is 2.656 million tons, the same as the previous month. The ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2]. Market Logic - ICE U.S. cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The main 03 contract settled at 64.66 cents, with a daily decline of 0.08% but a weekly increase of 0.39% supported by the neutral - positive USDA monthly supply - demand report. Zhengzhou cotton rose and then pulled back. Although downstream textile enterprises are facing the Spring Festival holiday, due to the expected limited pull - back during the new capacity release stage and the expectation of tight supply after the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton generally maintains a bullish outlook [2]. Trading Strategy - Build long positions for the 05 contract below 14,500 yuan/ton and set a profit - taking target at 15,000 yuan/ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Affected by the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation in the off - season, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has risen significantly. After reaching a high level, the short - term price volatility may increase. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures continued to fluctuate. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract was 64.48 cents/pound, up 0.47 cents/pound from the previous week, a 0.73% increase. The US cotton 3 - 5 spread was - 1.48 cents/pound, down 0.14 cents/pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose first and then fell. The closing price of the May contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.62% increase. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,930 yuan/ton, up 374 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was 1,234 yuan/ton, up 277 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [9] - **Industry Information**: Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, exports to China were 146,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year and 40,000 tons month - on - month. As of the week ending January 1, the US current - year cotton export sales were 23,200 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.5425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 239,100 tons. Among them, exports to China were 3,200 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 71,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,900 tons. As of the week ending January 9, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, unchanged from the previous week and 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons year - on - year [9] - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: Wait for a callback and then go long [9][10][11] 2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report presents the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract through charts [25][26] - **Import Profit**: The report shows the trends of the 1% tariff internal - external price difference and the sliding - scale tariff internal - external price difference through charts [27][28] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The report displays the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 spread and the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread through charts [29][30] - **Production - Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: The report presents the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit through charts [31][32] - **Foreign Market Spread**: The report shows the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff through charts [36][37] 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: The report shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and Xinjiang's seed cotton purchase price through charts [40][41] - **Cotton Import Volume**: The report presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes through charts [42][43] - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: The report shows the trends of the US cumulative and weekly export contract quantities to China through charts [44][45] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: The report presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes through charts [46][47] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The report shows the trends of the spinning mill and weaving mill operating rates through charts [49][50] - **National Sales Progress**: The report presents the trends of the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City through charts [52][53] - **Cotton Inventory**: The report shows the trends of China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly inventory of commercial + industrial through charts [54][55] - **Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: The report presents the trends of the spinning mill's cotton inventory and yarn inventory through charts [56][57] 4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: The report shows the trends of the proportion of US cotton planting areas without drought and the US cotton good - quality rate through charts [60][61] - **US Production Situation**: The report presents the trends of the US cotton bi - weekly processing volume and cumulative processing volume through charts [62][63] - **US Yield and Planting Area**: The report shows the trends of the US cotton yield forecast and planting area through charts [64][66] - **US Export Contract Progress**: The report presents the trends of the US current - year cumulative and weekly export contract quantities through charts [68][69] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: The report shows the trends of the US annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes through charts [70][71] - **US Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The report presents the trends of the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [72] - **Brazil Yield and Planting Area**: The report shows the trends of Brazil's cotton planting area and yield through charts [73][74] - **Brazil Export Volume**: The report presents the trends of Brazil's cotton export volume forecast and monthly export volume through charts [76][77] - **Brazil Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The report shows the trends of Brazil's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [79] - **India Yield and Planting Area**: The report presents the trends of India's cotton planting area and yield through charts [81][82] - **India Consumption and Import - Export**: The report shows the trends of India's cotton consumption, import and export volumes through charts [84][85] - **India Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The report presents the trends of India's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US negotiation has made progress with mutual tariff cuts. There is a 90 - day window period, during which foreign - trade textile enterprises start to rush for export production. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou Cotton will rebound to the previous gap area in the short term, but the selling pressure above increases, and the upward momentum weakens. It will maintain a sideways consolidation in the range of 13200 - 13500 in the short term [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a 90 - day foreign - trade export order - grabbing period, along with the futures price approaching historical lows. Negatives are the overall decline in foreign - trade orders, increased inventory, and the EU's new restrictive legislation [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The Sino - US negotiation has made progress with mutual tariff cuts. The USDA May report shows a decrease in production and an increase in consumption in the 25/26 season, with unchanged ending inventory. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. China's cotton imports in April were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The rural department's April forecast for the 24/25 season is a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.31 million tons. It is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,595, and the basis is 1265 (for the 09 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's April forecast for ending inventory in the 24/25 season is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the mutual tariff cuts in the Sino - US negotiation and a 90 - day window period, foreign - trade textile enterprises start to rush for export production. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou Cotton will rebound to the previous gap area in the short term, but the selling pressure above increases, and the upward momentum weakens. It will maintain a sideways consolidation in the range of 13200 - 13500 in the short term [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (USDA)**: The total global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Imports are expected to be 9.759 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Ending inventory is expected to be 17.065 million tons, with little change year - on - year [10][11]. - **Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 24/25 season (April estimate), production is 5.62 million tons, imports are 3.25 million tons, consumption is 7.69 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.28 million tons. In the 25/26 season (May forecast), production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.53 million tons [18]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is bearish [4].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are neutral due to factors such as production, import, consumption, and inventory data. The basis shows a premium over futures, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, but the main position is bearish and the overall inventory is relatively high. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton's main 09 contract is expected to rebound to the previous gap area, then experience a short - term shock and decline as the upward momentum weakens and selling pressure increases [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period, along with the futures price approaching historical lows. Negative factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and European regulations restricting imports [5]. Section Summaries 1. Previous Day Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the 25/26 annual report of USDA, cotton production decreased while consumption increased, and the ending inventory remained unchanged. In April, China's textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated the 24/25 annual production at 6.16 million tons, imports at 1.5 million tons, consumption at 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.31 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,606 yuan, with a basis of 1221 yuan (for the 09 contract), showing a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The estimated ending inventory in the 24/25 April report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.31 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the mutual tariff reduction in the China - US negotiation and a 90 - day window period, foreign - trade textile enterprises start to rush for export production. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton will rebound to the previous gap area in the short term, but the upward momentum will weaken, and the market will experience a short - term shock and decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: The report provides the USDA's global cotton production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data from 2020/21 to 2025/26, showing the production and consumption trends of major cotton - producing and consuming countries such as China, India, the US, etc. For example, in 2025/26, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.314 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9% [10]. - **China's Cotton Supply and Demand**: The report shows China's cotton supply and demand balance sheet from 2019 to 2024, including harvest area, beginning inventory, production, import, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [13]. - **Short - fiber and Polyester Prices**: It presents the price trends of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber [21]. - **Processing and Spinning Profits**: It shows the daily processing profit of ginneries and the daily spot profit of spinning mills in China [26][29]. - **Import Volume and Operating Rates**: It includes China's monthly import volume of cotton yarn, the weekly operating rate of pure - cotton yarn mills, and the weekly operating rate of weaving mills [34][36][38]. 5. Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, tracking its fundamentals, presenting macro and industry news, and indicating a trend strength of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,415 yuan/ton with a -0.22% daily increase and 13,410 yuan/ton in the night session with a -0.04% increase; CY2507 closed at 19,700 yuan/ton with a -0.38% daily increase and 19,715 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.08% increase; ICE US Cotton 07 closed at 65.49 cents/pound with a -0.09% daily increase [1] - **Transaction and Position Data**: CF2509 had 280,491 transactions, a decrease of 26,087 from the previous day, and a position of 764,431, an increase of 3,176; CY2507 had 6,779 transactions, a decrease of 1,999, and a position of 21,156, an increase of 1,045 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton had 11,546 warehouse receipts, an increase of 60, and 366 valid forecasts, a decrease of 111; cotton yarn had 35 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 0 valid forecasts, an increase of 35 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or -0.21%; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or -0.21%; Shandong was priced at 14,547 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan or 0.32%; Hebei was priced at 14,361 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan or 0.22%; the 3128B index was priced at 14,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.28% [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The CF9 - 1 price difference was -75 yuan/ton, an increase of 15; the difference between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was increasingly sluggish, and the mainstream basis was stable. Different regions in Southern Xinjiang had different sales basis levels for 2024/25 cotton [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The transaction of pure cotton yarn improved, with 40 - count yarn performing relatively well. Spinning mills continued to raise prices, with an accumulated increase of 300 - 500 yuan/ton, and market confidence improved [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton first fell and then rose. The July contract was weaker than the December contract because the USDA's upward adjustment of old - crop exports was lower than market expectations, weakening the support for old - crop contracts [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is -1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The China-US negotiation has made progress with mutual tariff cuts, and the textile industry's prosperity index in March rebounded above the 52.47% boom-bust line. The ICAC's May report forecasts an increase in production and a slight increase in consumption compared to last month, which is bearish. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. In March, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 81.4%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that in the 24/25 season, production will be 6.16 million tons, imports 1.5 million tons, consumption 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory 8.31 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - The basis of spot 3128b with a national average price of 14,187 has a basis of 947 (for the 09 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of China's ending inventory in the 24/25 season is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - The main positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - In April, textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year, indicating good export performance. With the China - US negotiation's mutual tariff cuts and last week's interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, there are many short - term positives, and the futures have rebounded rapidly. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have a short - term rebound, and a cautious bullish intraday trading strategy is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the given content. 3.2每日提示 - Bullish factors: Futures prices are close to historical lows [6]. - Bearish factors: Decrease in foreign trade orders, increase in inventory, US tariff hikes, stagnant exports to the US, and European regulations restricting imports [6]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the given content. 3.4基本面数据 - **Global Production and Consumption**: In 2024/25 (April forecast), global cotton production is 26.321 million tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 7%. Global consumption is 25.261 million tons, a decrease of 114,000 tons from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 1% [11]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: In 2024/25 (April forecast), China's cotton production is 6.16 million tons, imports are 1.5 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.31 million tons. The estimated average domestic cotton 3128B price is 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is 75 - 100 cents/pound [4][19]. 3.5持仓数据 No information provided in the given content.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to remain the same, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak in the short - term and continue to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Traders can consider shorting on rallies in the short - term [7][12][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: Uncertain weather may affect growth, and increased purchases from countries like Vietnam may have a positive impact. Short - term trend is expected to remain the same [7] - **US Cotton Growth**: As of May 4, the planting rate was 21%, 2% slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The main producing areas are still dry [7] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of May 1, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased, 2025/26 cumulative signing declined, and 2024/25 weekly shipment increased. Pima cotton signing and shipment also increased [7] - **CFTC Position**: As of May 2, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2507 contract decreased, and the total number of unpriced contracts of 24/25 sellers decreased, while the total number of ICE unpriced contracts increased [7] - **Other Countries**: Brazil's Mato Grosso state is expected to have a slight increase in seed cotton production. India's weekly cotton listing volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative listing volume accounted for 91% of the predicted output [7] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated this week. After the release of macro - sentiment, it is expected to be weak in the short - term [12] - **Supply Side**: As of mid - April, China's commercial cotton inventory was 415.26 tons. As of April 15, the national cotton direct - seeding progress was 75%, and Xinjiang's planting intention area increased by 1.8% [12] - **Demand Side**: After "Golden March and Silver April", the market enters the off - season. As of May 8, the mainstream spinning mills' operating rate was 74.4%, and it is expected to decline next week. There are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream sectors [12] Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5156 yesterday, and the implied volatility of some options increased slightly [19] - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: Sell call options [19][21] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, cotton supply is sufficient and demand is average. After "Golden March and Silver April", the market enters the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. In the long - term, the US economy may face recession, and cotton prices are expected to decline [21] - **Specific Strategies**: Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly strong, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - to - long - term. Consider shorting on rallies. Arbitrage: Short September and long January. Option: Sell call options [21] Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Data on internal and external cotton price differences and 9 - 1 - month price difference trends are presented [23][24] - **Mid - end Situation**: Data on the operating rate and inventory days of pure cotton spinning mills and all - cotton fabric mills are shown [26] - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' industrial inventory, and reserve inventory over the years are provided [27] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: Data on the basis of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton are presented [29]