智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，首予贝壳-W(02423)买入评级，贝壳作为中国领先的居住服 务平台，凭借独特的ACN合作网络和庞大的"楼盘字典"数据库构筑了坚固的竞争壁垒。公司核心的存量 房和新房业务市占率持续提升，在行业下行期中展现出超额增长。依托强大的平台生态和效率优势，贝 壳在房地产交易服务领域的龙头地位稳固。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 叠加平台覆盖网络扩大，公司GTV实现较行业的超额表现，市占率持续提升。(1)存量房交易服务： 2023/2024/2025H1公司存量房总GTV分别为2/2.2/1.2万亿元，同比分别为28.6%/10.8%/13.7%，2024年市 占率达31.1%，同比提升2.5pct。存量房业务的增长，一方面源于当前房地产行业已步入存量时代，二 手房成交中枢持续上移，奠定公司GTV增长的市场基础;另一方面，公司凭借庞大的人店网络、海量的 房源客源优势，不断吸引新的经纪品牌加入，非链家门店拓展提速，推动市占率稳步提升。(2)新房交 易服务：2023/2024/2025H1公司新房GTV分别为1/0.97/0.49万亿元，同比分别为6.6%/-3.3%/26%，分别 优于全国 ...

Summary of Beike's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Beike (贝壳) - **Industry**: Real Estate Key Points and Arguments 1. **Short-term Performance**: Beike's short-term performance is impacted by the downturn in the real estate industry, but management has provided guidance for a gross operating profit margin of over 7% for the next three years and increased the buyback authorization to $5 billion, ensuring a solid cash reserve for investors [2][4][28]. 2. **Business Segmentation**: Beike's operations are divided into direct operations (Lianjia) and franchise operations (Beilian). The non-Lianjia stores have shown rapid growth, with active stores increasing by 35.8% to over 14,000, and active agents growing by 73,000 [2][5]. 3. **Revenue Sources**: Beike's revenue primarily comes from four segments: existing homes (27.5%), new homes (approximately 34%), home decoration (15%), and rental services (over 20%). The new home segment contributes significantly to revenue, while the rental segment is growing rapidly but has lower utilization, affecting overall profit margins [7][10]. 4. **ACN Network**: The ACN network enhances cooperation among agents, increasing overall revenue and attracting small and medium-sized agencies to the platform, which improves commission rates and expands into the new home market [2][12]. 5. **Data Support**: The "Property Dictionary" provides reliable data support, enhancing customer trust and brand image. Beike has committed to four standards for genuine listings and has compensated over 4.6 billion yuan to reinforce its market position [2][13]. 6. **Market Share**: Beike holds approximately 33%-34% market share in the second-hand housing market and about 13% in the new housing market, positioning it as an industry leader [4][10]. 7. **Profitability Trends**: The company's profit margins have fluctuated due to changes in revenue structure, with the rental business being the fastest-growing but with the lowest utilization, which has negatively impacted overall profit margins [8][9]. 8. **Future Strategy**: Beike aims to explore new avenues such as home decoration and rental services, with expectations of profitability in the home decoration segment by 2026 [10][22]. 9. **Competitive Advantages**: Beike's competitive advantages include both soft and hard moats, such as the ACN network and strategic store layouts in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which solidify its market position [11][15]. 10. **Investment Value**: Beike has a cash reserve of approximately 70 billion yuan, leading to a low valuation with a price-to-earnings ratio slightly above 10. The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of at least 5% [28][29]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Conditions**: The current market environment is challenging, but Beike's stock buyback and dividend strategies provide a stable return for investors [29][30]. 2. **Future Performance Expectations**: Despite short-term pressures, Beike's management is optimistic about future performance, projecting a net profit margin exceeding 7% over the next three years [27]. 3. **Policy Impact**: Any policy adjustments in the fourth quarter could significantly benefit Beike, enhancing its potential for performance recovery [30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10] Core Views - The company's brokerage business has a strong competitive moat that is difficult for competitors to surpass, with its direct brand, Lianjia, occupying a core market position. The company is expanding its market share in lower-tier cities through its platform, Beilian. The second-hand market is improving while the new housing market in lower-tier cities remains sluggish, providing a comfortable operating environment for the company. The second-hand business is expected to increase in volume, while the new housing business is expected to see price increases, leading to continuous performance growth and amplified profit elasticity due to operational leverage. The home decoration and rental businesses may not contribute significantly to profits in the short term but are expected to provide substantial performance growth in the medium term. Given its competitive advantages, relative scarcity, potential performance elasticity, and the influx of incremental funds post-listing, the company is expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium in the short term. From a medium to long-term perspective, there is still room for improvement in brokerage business share, and the home decoration and rental sectors can contribute to potential growth, with data assets holding significant value elasticity, making the company a strategic allocation target [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction and service platform, focusing on digitalizing and smartening the residential service industry. It provides a one-stop, high-quality, and efficient service including second-hand and new housing transactions, rentals, home decoration, and home services. In 2023, the company's total transaction volume (GTV) reached 3.14 trillion yuan, with the proportion of second-hand and new housing brokerage business maintaining over 95% [18][22]. Competitive Moat - The company has built a competitive moat through high and lengthy infrastructure construction, creating a barrier that competitors find hard to cross. The ACN network breaks traditional competitive dilemmas, enabling a win-win cooperation model and expanding single-store economies to regional economies. The company's self-operated brand, Lianjia, has successfully captured customer mindshare through its property dictionary, genuine listings, and service commitments, resulting in significant premium in customer acquisition and commission rates compared to industry averages [6][36]. Market Share and Profit Elasticity - The company’s market share in the second-hand and new housing GTV was 28.6% and 9.7% respectively in 2023. The brokerage business is transitioning from scale victory to efficiency priority, with Lianjia promoting a large store model and leveraging the Beilian platform for continuous expansion. The impact of commission reductions in Beijing is gradually diminishing, and the commission rate for second-hand transactions has shown signs of recovery [7][9]. Business Expansion and Future Growth - The home decoration business has rapidly grown, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2023. The company is shifting focus from blind expansion to solidifying internal capabilities and enhancing management efficiency. The rental business, "Shengxin Rent," has also expanded rapidly, contributing over 15% to rental income, and is expected to maintain good growth momentum. The company is exploring new profit points through its data assets and partnerships with developers [8][9][10]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 77.8 billion yuan in 2023, with the second-hand and new housing businesses accounting for 36% and 39% respectively. The home decoration business saw significant growth, reaching 10.9 billion yuan, while rental income reached 9.8 billion yuan, accounting for 16%. The overall gross margin improved to 27.9%, and the company successfully turned a profit with a net profit of 5.9 billion yuan in 2023 [30][32]. Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns through substantial dividends and buybacks, ensuring a solid bottom-line return for shareholders. The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 8.11 billion, 8.91 billion, and 10.23 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.8, 23.4, and 20.4 times. Given its competitive advantages and potential performance elasticity, the company is expected to enjoy a valuation premium in the short term [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an initial recommendation [9]. Core Viewpoints - The company's brokerage business has a strong competitive moat that is difficult for competitors to surpass, with its direct brand, Lianjia, occupying a core market position. The company is expanding its market share through its platform, Beilian, particularly in lower-tier cities. The second-hand market is improving while the new housing market in lower-tier cities remains sluggish, providing a comfortable operational environment for the company. The second-hand business is expected to increase in volume, while the new housing business is expected to see price increases, leading to continuous performance enhancement and amplified profit elasticity due to operational leverage. Although the home decoration and rental businesses may not contribute significantly to profits in the short term, they are expected to provide substantial performance growth in the medium term. Given its competitive advantages, relative scarcity, potential performance elasticity, and the influx of incremental funds post-listing, the company is expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium in the short term. From a medium to long-term perspective, there is still room for improvement in brokerage business share, and home decoration and rental services can contribute to potential growth, making the company a strategic investment choice [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Beike is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction and service platform, dedicated to advancing the digitalization and intelligence of residential services. The platform offers a one-stop, high-quality, and efficient service that includes second-hand and new housing transactions, rentals, home decoration, and home services. In 2023, the company's Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached 3.14 trillion yuan, with the proportion of second-hand and new housing brokerage business maintaining over 95% of the GTV [17][22]. Competitive Moat - The company has established a competitive moat through high and lengthy infrastructure construction, which is difficult for competitors to overcome. The ACN network breaks the traditional competitive dilemma, enabling a win-win cooperation model and expanding the scale economy from single stores to regional economies. The company has successfully occupied customer mindshare through its self-operated brand, Lianjia, and has achieved significant premium in customer acquisition and commission rates compared to industry averages [5][6]. Market Share and Profit Elasticity - The company’s market share in second-hand and new housing GTV was 28.6% and 9.7% respectively in 2023. The brokerage business is transitioning from scale victory to efficiency priority, with Lianjia promoting a large store model and continuously expanding through the Beilian platform. The overall operational leverage is expected to further amplify profit elasticity [6][8]. Business Expansion - The home decoration business has rapidly grown, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2023. The company is shifting from blind expansion to focusing on regional density, digital systems, and supply chain construction. The rental business, "Shengxin Rent," has also expanded rapidly, contributing over 15% to rental income and is expected to maintain good growth [7][8]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 77.8 billion yuan in 2023, with the second-hand and new housing businesses accounting for 36% and 39% respectively. The home decoration business revenue reached 10.9 billion yuan, contributing 14% to total revenue. The company successfully turned a profit in 2023, achieving a net profit of 5.9 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit reaching 9.8 billion yuan [30][33]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue enjoying a valuation premium due to its competitive advantages and potential performance elasticity. The adjusted net profits for 2024-2026 are projected to be 8.11 billion, 8.91 billion, and 10.23 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.8, 23.4, and 20.4X [8][9].