证券研究报告 2025 年 09 月 27 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 房地产行业周报 货币政策将继续支持巩固房地产市场稳定态势 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 央行强调要巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度 1.《周度观点：北上深新房、二手 房成交继续回暖》 2025.9.21 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 0 1 -7 绝对收益 2 17 26 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2024/9/26 2024/11/25 2025/1/24 2025/3/25 2025/5/24 2025/7/23 2025/9/21 沪深300 房地产(申万) 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 根据央行官网 9 月 26 日披露，央行货币政策委员会召开第三季度例会。房 地产方面，央行提出要着力推动已出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量 商品房和 ...

有个记者以"演员"身份参与了一次看房行动。一名链家中介带着记者一天内看了十几套房，他说："我们现在每天需要带15个客户看房，这 是公司的要求。" 最近，中介雇演员看房，跟房东砍价的新闻，大家看到了吗？ 这种为了完成指标和任务的，在市场低迷的时候，故意制造热闹景象的操作，在业内也是比较常见的。 但是没想到还有一些中介（秒卖房），更直接，安排"演员"和房东砍价，话术一套一套的，价格都比最低成交价格还要低，砍的房东心态 都崩了。 这不仅是砍价，更是一场针对房东的"围猎"。 在上海，一套挂牌538万的房子，"演员"买家在中介的授意下，直接从480万的"屠龙刀"开始砍价。漫长的拉锯战中，房东夫妇节节败退，最 终心理防线被击穿，以510万的价格忍痛出手，短短几小时，资产缩水28万。 完成这些"表演"后，记者获得了200元报酬。而中介透露，他们的老板通过这种变相压价的方式，月入超过50万元。 上海链家此前隐藏二手房成交价，一度被市场调侃为"密不发丧"。如今再看，这一动作的深层意图——人为制造信息壁垒，让买卖双方只 能依赖中介提供的片面信息，从而彻底掌握定价主导权。 在楼市持续下行的压力下，中介机构为加速成交、提升佣金收入， ...

每经评论员 陈梦妤 现行法规对"心理战式压价"缺乏明确界定，购房者维权时证据难以固定。更值得警惕的是，一些中介机 构通过大量控制房源，在一定程度上具备了操纵区域房价的能力，这种市场集中度下的"定价权垄断"， 比单次欺诈更具破坏性。 甚至有中介老板透露，通过此类操作月入超50万元，这也解释了此类事件多年常存的原因，其盈利逻辑 已从一般意义上的"促成高价交易"转向"以量换价"。 这种"表演经济学"模式，不仅制造焦虑，也直接扭曲了市场定价机制。房东在"虚假需求"的轰炸下被迫 降价，而真实买家则被误导性报价干扰判断，最终形成"中介定价、市场买单"的畸形格局。 从整体看，当前二手房市场的透明度缺失呈现三重特征：成交价隐匿、信息不对称、监管滞后。 不少普通购房者可能都没意识到，想购买一套二手房，在公开平台往往查询不到其历史成交记录，在买 卖双方都无法获取真实交易参照系的背景下，极易将中介推荐价认同于市场公允价。这给了小部分人极 大的操作空间。前些年，多地曾试点二手房政府指导价，但在实际执行中阻力重重，最终悄然取消。 这两年，二手房交易市场可谓"百花齐放"，不少出身正规中介机构的经纪人，甚至是曾经的房企专业人 士等等都化身 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent incident involving a Shanghai intermediary agency highlights a deeper crisis in the second-hand housing market, characterized by a systemic lack of price transparency and the manipulation of market dynamics by certain intermediaries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Some intermediary agencies are employing tactics such as concealing transaction prices and hiring "actors" to pressure sellers into lowering prices, transforming the information asymmetry between buyers and sellers into an unequal "power game" [1][2]. - The current second-hand housing market exhibits three main characteristics of transparency deficiency: hidden transaction prices, information asymmetry, and lagging regulation [3]. Group 2: Impact on Buyers and Sellers - Buyers, unaware of historical transaction prices, may mistakenly accept intermediary-recommended prices as fair market values, giving a small number of intermediaries significant operational leverage [3]. - The phenomenon of "psychological warfare" in price negotiations lacks clear legal definitions, making it difficult for buyers to gather evidence for claims [3]. Group 3: Complaints and Market Trust - From 2022 to August 2025, over 4,000 complaints related to second-hand housing transactions were filed on the Black Cat Complaints platform, with the total amount in dispute exceeding 500 million yuan, indicating issues such as opaque fees and deposits [4]. - The transformation of property transactions into a stage for intermediaries undermines market order and erodes public trust in asset security, emphasizing the need for a more transparent market rather than smarter intermediaries [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingzheng International predicts that Beike-W (02423) will achieve adjusted net profits of 6.2 billion, 7.4 billion, and 8.6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, highlighting the company's strong alpha attributes and potential beta elasticity from the real estate sector's stabilization, with a buy rating given [1] Group 1 - In Q2 2025, the company's performance met expectations, with total GTV increasing by 4.7% year-on-year to 878.7 billion yuan, driven by a 2.2% increase in second-hand housing GTV to 583.5 billion yuan and an 8.5% increase in new housing GTV to 255.4 billion yuan [2] - The company's revenue grew by 11.3% year-on-year to 26 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with adjusted net profit reaching 1.82 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [2] Group 2 - The Non-GAAP operating expense ratio for Q2 2025 was 16.2%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved management and technology application [3] - The Non-GAAP sales expense ratio also decreased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, suggesting ongoing efficiency improvements [3] Group 3 - The new housing take rate in Q2 2025 remained high at 3.37%, unchanged year-on-year, with the impact of new housing regulations being limited due to their low market share in most cities [4] Group 4 - In the first half of 2025, the company repurchased shares worth 394 million USD, accounting for approximately 1.7% of the total shares outstanding at the end of 2024, and announced an increase in the existing repurchase plan from 3 billion USD to 5 billion USD, extending the plan until August 31, 2028 [5]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Changes - The company Beike has ceased updating transaction prices for second-hand houses in Hefei, leading to a lack of public visibility on transaction conditions [1] - Previously, Beike had hidden transaction information, but users could still access it through the "Good Selection of Houses" mini-program, which is no longer the case [1] - In Shanghai, Beike's platform has hidden all second-hand house transaction prices since August 14, 2025, to reduce landlord panic and market anxiety caused by price fluctuations [3] Group 2: Information Access and Market Implications - Users can still obtain approximate transaction prices by consulting with corresponding agents or using price filtering methods on the Beike app [3] - Relying on third-party platforms for information may lead to delays or incomplete data [4] - The concealment of transaction prices may increase information asymmetry and transaction costs, prompting buyers to use multiple information channels for cautious decision-making [5] Group 3: Transportation Infrastructure Development - The Hefei New Bridge Airport S1 line has successfully obtained single-vehicle certification, marking a transition from construction to testing phase [7] - The S1 line spans approximately 47.5 kilometers, connecting various regions including Hefei's main urban area and the New Bridge International Airport, characterized by long distances and high speeds (maximum speed of 120 km/h) [9] - The line employs a fully automated operation solution based on train-to-train communication (TACS), enhancing the intelligence and safety of the operation [11] - Future steps include testing TACS functionality and conducting trial runs, which will significantly improve connectivity between major transportation hubs and support urban integration and development [12]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Lianjia's decision to hide historical transaction prices of second-hand homes aims to stabilize market sentiment amid a declining real estate market [1][3] Group 1: Market Context - The second-hand housing market has been sluggish, with significant price declines in certain areas, prompting Lianjia to take action to alleviate seller anxiety [3] - Shanghai joins 15 other cities, including Beijing and Nanjing, in implementing similar measures to conceal transaction prices [1] Group 2: Implications of Price Concealment - The lack of transparent transaction data may lead to prolonged negotiation periods, as buyers and sellers face information asymmetry [5][7] - Buyers may become more cautious and lower their offers due to the absence of clear pricing information, while some sellers may hold firm on high prices [7] - The average negotiation period has increased by 15%-30% in cities where transaction prices are hidden, with a general decline in transaction success rates [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Perception - The removal of publicly available transaction data may fragment market consensus, leading to differing perceptions of "reasonable prices" among buyers and sellers [9] - Sellers may reference peak prices from two years ago, while buyers may look at current new home or rental prices, exacerbating transaction friction [9] Group 4: Information Flow and Accessibility - Despite the concealment of front-end data, intermediaries still possess complete transaction records, indicating that this measure serves more as a psychological intervention rather than a total information blackout [11] - Ordinary buyers face increased costs in obtaining information, often relying on multiple intermediaries or personal connections to ascertain true transaction prices [11] Group 5: Inventory and Future Outlook - As of July 2025, Shanghai's second-hand housing inventory exceeded 180,000 units, with an average absorption period of over 14 months [13] - Future market stabilization may depend on favorable policies such as relaxed purchase restrictions and lower mortgage rates, while ongoing economic uncertainty could hinder recovery efforts [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decision by real estate platforms in Shanghai, including Lianjia and Beike, to remove historical transaction prices for second-hand homes, requiring buyers to inquire directly with agents for specific pricing information [1][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - In July, the Shanghai second-hand housing market saw stable transaction volumes, with 18,515 units sold, and the viewing volume remained unchanged [5]. - The market is characterized by a significant demand from first-time buyers and young families, particularly for properties priced below 3 million yuan, indicating a sensitivity to total price [5]. - The trend of diverse improvement customer groups is emerging, but it has not yet formed a substantial scale effect due to the ongoing popularity of high-end new projects in the new housing market [5]. Group 2: Data Accessibility - As of August 14, platforms like Lianjia and Beike in Shanghai have removed access to historical transaction prices, while Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate still allows users to view historical transaction data, including price, area, and transaction date [1][3]. - Other cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have also restricted access to historical transaction prices on similar platforms, while Dalian continues to display prices prior to July 29 [7]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Analysts suggest that the removal of historical transaction prices may influence buyer behavior differently depending on market conditions; during a rising market, it may encourage buyers to rush in, while in a declining market, it may deter them from entering [6].

Core Insights - Shanghai Lianjia has officially hidden all historical transaction prices for second-hand homes, following similar actions in 15 other cities including Wuhan, Hefei, Nanjing, and Beijing [1] Group 1: Market Changes - The current backend system allows agents to query transaction prices, but users cannot access this information on the front end [1] - In addition to transaction prices being hidden, landlords' price adjustment details are also not visible; users can only see "price change" records without specifics on increases or decreases [11] Group 2: Market Implications - The primary aim of this measure is to alleviate landlords' panic, as seeing neighbors' properties continuously drop in price can create anxiety [11] - However, the lack of transparency may increase transaction costs and exacerbate distrust between buyers and sellers [11] - Future discussions on housing prices will lack fair transaction screenshots as a basis, which is crucial for forming price consensus [11] - Buyers and sellers may have to rely on regional intermediaries for transaction information or repeatedly inquire about prices to facilitate transactions [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decision to remove historical transaction prices of second-hand homes from platforms like Lianjia in Shanghai, raising concerns about transparency in the real estate market [1][6]. Group 1: Market Changes - Starting from August 14, platforms such as Lianjia and Beike have taken down historical transaction prices in the Shanghai area, requiring buyers to inquire with agents for specific prices [1]. - Despite the removal of historical prices on some platforms, Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate still allows users to access historical transaction data, including price, area, and transaction date [1][5]. Group 2: Market Analysis - In July, the Shanghai second-hand housing market saw stable transaction volumes, with 18,515 units sold, and the viewing volume remained unchanged [6]. - The market is characterized by a significant demand from first-time buyers and young families, particularly for properties priced below 3 million yuan, indicating a sensitivity to total price [6]. - The trend of diverse improvement customer groups is emerging but has not yet formed a substantial effect, partly due to the ongoing popularity of high-end new projects in the new housing market [6]. Group 3: Historical Context - The removal of historical transaction prices is not a nationwide policy, as cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have also opted not to display these prices, while Dalian still shows prices prior to July 29 [7]. - Historical data removal has occurred in the past during market upswings, potentially influencing buyer behavior either to rush into the market or to hesitate during downturns [6].