貴金屬基金助捕捉黃金升值紅利----2026 年 3 月 2 日 文匯報 隨着市場對美聯儲主席候選人沃什鷹派立場的降溫，金價開始企穩。現階後金價有三個重要支持位，分別 是每盎司 4,842、4,655 及 4,404 美元。這三組數字是本輪調整開始出現後的上升三角的三個短線底部， 可作金價支持位作參考，若果金價不幸跌破每盎司 4,404 美元，即代表本輪金價反彈完結，金價走勢將會 繼續尋底，投資者要小心衡量風險。 早前美國總統特朗普挑戰最高法院，國際金價上周上漲約 1.1%，重回歷史新高的姿態再度吸引了大量投 資者的目光，我們建立投資者現階段可分批入市，並留意上述金價的重要支持位。特別是，近期市場的技 術面也顯示出金價有走強的趨勢，尤其是突破了多條短天期均線，這對投資者而言是一個相對積極的信 號。 地緣局勢緊張 金價獲支撐 另外，美伊局勢發展仍受市場關注，若果局勢持續升溫，將續拉升市場的緊張情緒，對金價構成支持。展 望未來，金價和白銀價格仍將受到多重因素的影響，包括美國減息政策、國際貿易的變數，以及地緣政治 的影響。若果投資者看好金價走勢，建議可關注富蘭克林黃金及貴金屬基金。 基金採取主動、研究主導的投資策略 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a technical rebound, with SMIC (00981.HK) showing a slight increase in stock price after a period of adjustment, although it still reflects a decline year-to-date, indicating a complex high-level adjustment pattern in the market [1]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels for SMIC are identified at 64.9 HKD and 59.5 HKD, with the former being a critical battleground for buyers and sellers. If this support is breached, the next psychological support level is expected to be 59.5 HKD, which is seen as a "touchstone" for assessing the depth of the current adjustment [2]. - Resistance levels are set at 73.3 HKD and 77.3 HKD, with the former being a significant technical platform and the latter combining the 60-day moving average and previous high points, making a successful breakout crucial for reversing the current adjustment trend [2]. Market Dynamics - The overall sentiment in the semiconductor sector has improved, with signs of bottom-fishing capital entering the market. SMIC reported growth in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, maintaining a solid fundamental position. The company also noted a high capacity utilization rate and an increase in average selling prices due to product mix optimization [5]. Derivative Products and Strategies - A new bull certificate (65935) has been introduced to meet the rising demand for leveraged tools, featuring a buyback price set at 71.3 HKD, providing a safety margin of about 3 HKD from the current stock price, with a potential leverage of approximately 15 times [4]. - For bullish strategies, investors can consider products like HSBC Bull Certificate (60684) and UBS Bull Certificate (60514), which have buyback prices close to the critical support level of 59.5 HKD, offering substantial safety buffers [9]. - For bearish strategies, UBS Put Certificate (15954) and Bank of China Put Certificate (21281) are recommended, with exercise prices slightly below the first support level, making them effective tools for hedging risks or expressing a bearish outlook [16].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining (02899) has shown strong performance with a 4.48% increase on January 6, reaching a recent high of 38.26 HKD, with a trading volume of 38.28 billion HKD, indicating active market engagement [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price of Zijin Mining reached 38.56 HKD as of January 7, showing a slight increase of 0.89% [1] - Resistance levels are identified at 40.4 HKD and 42.3 HKD, while support levels are at 35.4 HKD and 33.9 HKD [1] - The stock is above key moving averages (MA10: 35.6 HKD, MA30: 33.51 HKD, MA60: 32.97 HKD), indicating a strong bullish trend [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The RSI is at 70, indicating an overbought condition, while the Williams indicator and stochastic oscillator are also signaling sell [1] - Despite some sell signals, indicators like ADX, MACD, Bollinger Bands, and Ichimoku Cloud are showing buy signals, reflecting mixed market sentiment [1] Group 3: Product Recommendations - Two high-value products are recommended: - Citigroup Call Warrant (22889) with a leverage of 5.4 times and a strike price of 44.01 HKD, noted for its low premium and volatility [7] - Societe Generale Bull Certificate (63568) with a leverage of 5.8 times and a redemption price of 32.8 HKD, recognized for its responsiveness to stock volatility and liquidity [7] Group 4: Market Trends - Commodity stocks showed overall strength on January 6, contributing to the rise of Zijin Mining and creating a notable sectoral linkage [2] - Recent products related to Zijin Mining have demonstrated significant elasticity, with some bull certificates showing returns of 30% and 24% over two days, outperforming the stock's 3.57% increase [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Chinese brokerage sector, is experiencing a strong rebound driven by positive stimuli, with leading firms like CITIC Securities showing significant price movements [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - CITIC Securities (06030.HK) has seen its stock price rise by 4.64%, currently trading at 28.4 HKD, indicating a potential short-term bullish sentiment [1]. - The stock is currently at a critical technical level, with mixed signals from various indicators suggesting a possible short-term rebound [1][3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current price is slightly above the 10-day moving average (26.81 HKD) but faces resistance from the 30-day (28.43 HKD) and 60-day moving averages (28.88 HKD), indicating that the medium to long-term trend has not fully strengthened [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 26.2 HKD and 25.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 28.3 HKD and 29.4 HKD, providing important reference points for short-term trading [3]. Group 3: Derivative Instruments - Recent performance of related derivative products, such as the Societe Generale call option (16567) and Huatai call option (14122), has shown significant gains of 10% and 9% respectively, highlighting the leverage effect of these instruments [3]. - The Huatai call option (14122) is recommended for investors seeking a balance of cost-effectiveness and stability, with a strike price of 28.33 HKD, close to the first resistance level [5]. - The Morgan Stanley call option (29174) offers high risk and potential reward, with a leverage of 43.36 times, suitable for professional investors looking for short-term speculative opportunities [6].

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's stock price has shown a strong upward trend, supported by market expectations of new vehicle launches and strong sales data, leading to a 4.56% increase in stock price to 97.55 HKD with a trading volume of 25.33 billion HKD [2]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently in an upward trend, with various technical indicators suggesting potential for further increases in the short term. The RSI is at 50, indicating a balanced market, while the stochastic oscillator shows a buy signal. The MACD and Bollinger Bands also lean towards buy signals [2]. - Key support levels are identified at 92.5 HKD and 90.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 102.1 HKD and 104.7 HKD. The system estimates a 57% chance of price increase, with a recent volatility of 7.3% over the past five days [2]. Derivative Products - For investors looking to capitalize on Li Auto's potential rise, Societe Generale's bull certificate (55164) has a leverage of up to 5 times with a low premium and a redemption price of 84.9 HKD. UBS's bull certificate (54962) offers a similar leverage of 5.1 times with the same redemption price, providing a safety cushion relative to the current stock price [10]. - For bearish investors, JPMorgan's bear certificate (64393) offers a high leverage of 8.2 times with a redemption price of 105 HKD, making it an attractive option for those anticipating a short-term decline [10]. Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment towards Li Auto remains positive, with technical indicators suggesting short-term upward momentum and various derivative products available for both bullish and bearish strategies [14].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is at a critical decision point with its stock price showing mixed signals from various technical indicators, indicating potential volatility in the near term [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently fluctuating around 518.5 HKD, with short-term support at 508.21 HKD (MA10) and 502.79 HKD (MA30), while the medium-term support is at 496.57 HKD (MA60) [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 499 HKD and 483 HKD, while resistance levels are at 531 HKD and 547 HKD [4]. - The stock has shown a volatility of 5.4% over five days, with a narrowing Bollinger Band indicating an impending breakout [4]. Short-term Trading Strategy - If the stock price stabilizes above 515 HKD and breaks through 531 HKD, it may trigger a new upward trend, suggesting the use of high-leverage bull certificates or near-price call options [5]. - Conversely, if the price falls below the 499 HKD support, investors should be cautious of potential pullback risks and consider deploying bear certificates or put options for hedging [5]. Performance of Derivative Products - From June 3 to June 5, Tencent's stock rose by 1.98%, positively impacting related derivative products, with UBS bull certificates surging by 33% and HSBC bull certificates increasing by 30% [6]. - Call options from UBS and JPMorgan also saw significant gains of 18% and 11%, respectively, highlighting the leverage effect of these products in a rising market [6]. Recommended Products - Among the current options, UBS call option 17137 offers a leverage of 11.1 times with a strike price of 563.5 HKD, suitable for bullish investors [7]. - For bearish positions, JPMorgan put option 15137 provides a leverage of 9.7 times with a strike price of 443.33 HKD, presenting a low premium for investors anticipating a downturn [7]. Popular Bull and Bear Certificates - HSBC bull certificates 67818 and 67820 offer leverage of 9.5 times and 8.8 times, respectively, with redemption prices set at 465 HKD and 460 HKD [10]. - For bearish strategies, Societe Generale bear certificate 58795 provides a high leverage of 17.8 times with a redemption price of 546 HKD, while JPMorgan bear certificate 58426 offers an even higher leverage of 20.2 times with a redemption price of 540 HKD [10].

Group 1 - Zhaojin Mining (01818) has shown strong recent performance, with technical indicators suggesting continued upward momentum in the short term. As of 11:30 AM, the latest price was HKD 20.15, up 2.7%, with the 10-day moving average (HKD 18.3) crossing above the 30-day moving average (HKD 18.01), forming a "golden cross" that reflects a positive short-term trend [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 67, nearing the overbought zone but not extreme, while the MACD shows a "buy" signal. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating potential increased volatility. Key support levels are at HKD 18.6 and HKD 17.8, with resistance at HKD 20.9 and HKD 21.7. A breakthrough above HKD 20.9 could challenge higher levels [1] - The leverage effect of warrants has amplified returns, with Zhaojin Mining's stock price rising 8.76% on May 19, leading to significant gains in related warrants. Morgan Stanley's call option (27406) and UBS's call option (27337) recorded increases of 27% and 29%, respectively, exceeding the stock's rise by more than three times [4] Group 2 - Investors optimistic about Zhaojin Mining's potential to break through the HKD 20.9 resistance should consider longer-dated slightly out-of-the-money call options to balance time decay and leverage benefits. Current call options have varied terms, with exercise prices concentrated around HKD 18 and HKD 30. For instance, in-the-money products like Morgan Stanley's call option (27839) and UBS's call option (27337) have a leverage of 2.8 times, while out-of-the-money products have a leverage exceeding 3.3 times, with expiration dates in late November [7] - The market sentiment around Zhaojin Mining is influenced by strong gold prices and a robust technical outlook, although the RSI and Williams indicators are approaching overbought levels, raising questions about potential profit-taking in the short term. Investors are encouraged to share their strategies regarding whether to opt for warrants or directly purchase the underlying stock [10]