回顧近期熱門窩輪表現，2026年1月2日推出的多隻紫金礦業相關產品，在其後兩日都呈現出強勁的彈性。其中法巴牛證（63568）兩日後升幅達30%，同期 正股僅上漲3.57%；法興牛證（60105）兩日後升幅亦有24%，同樣跑贏正股表現。呢兩隻牛證之所以能有如此突出的回報，核心在於正股上漲帶動下，牛證 的槓桿效應充分釋放，放大了正股的漲幅收益，體現出高Delta對正股波動的敏感度。另外，瑞銀認購證（22176）及中銀認購證（15329）兩日後升幅分別 為23%及22%，同樣受惠於正股的上漲走勢，展現出不錯的彈性。 【窩輪透視】紫金窩輪複盤：漲4.48%創近期高位，高彈性標的成獲利首選 紫金礦業（02899）1月6日全日收報38.26元，單日漲4.48%，成交額達38.28億元，表現相當活躍。紫金今日（7日）上午10點45分最新報38.56元，暫微升 0.89%，阻力位在40.4元及42.3元；支持位分別為35.4元及33.9元。MA10、MA30、MA60分別處於35.6元、33.51元、32.97元，正股價格已站穩各主要均線之 上，呈現強勢格局。指標方面，RSI為70，威廉指標顯示超買狀態並發出賣出信號，隨機震 ...

從技術面來看，中信證券當前的多空博弈態勢十分鮮明。價格層面，現價略高於10天平均線（26.81元），但仍受制於30天平均線（28.43元）及60天平均線 （28.88元），中長線趨勢尚未完全轉強。指標信號則呈現分化：一方面，RSI指標處於34的中立區域，MACD信號、保力加通道等仍維持賣出信號；另一方 面，變動率指標（ROC）、牛熊力量指標均發出"買入"或"超跌可能築底"的信號，一目均衡表與心理線指標也明確進入買入區間，與前期"超跌築底"的判斷 形成呼應，暗示短期賣壓可能減弱，存在技術反彈的基礎條件。 清晰的支持與阻力位為短線操作提供了重要參考。支持端形成雙重防線：第一支持位穩固在26.2元，與10日均線距離較近，構成較強技術支撐帶，守住該區 域將大幅提升築底成功概率；第二支持位看向25.4元，可視為短期調整的極限防線。阻力端壓力同樣明確：第一阻力位對應28.3元，既接近30日均線位置， 又與多只窩輪產品的行使價重合，將成為短期反彈的核心考驗；若能成功突破，上方29.4元的第二阻力位才有望打開空間。從數據維度看，5.1%的5日振幅 與56%的短期上升概率，意味著短期存在波動機會，但趨勢尚未明確，操作需保持謹慎 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's stock price has shown a strong upward trend, supported by market expectations of new vehicle launches and strong sales data, leading to a 4.56% increase in stock price to 97.55 HKD with a trading volume of 25.33 billion HKD [2]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently in an upward trend, with various technical indicators suggesting potential for further increases in the short term. The RSI is at 50, indicating a balanced market, while the stochastic oscillator shows a buy signal. The MACD and Bollinger Bands also lean towards buy signals [2]. - Key support levels are identified at 92.5 HKD and 90.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 102.1 HKD and 104.7 HKD. The system estimates a 57% chance of price increase, with a recent volatility of 7.3% over the past five days [2]. Derivative Products - For investors looking to capitalize on Li Auto's potential rise, Societe Generale's bull certificate (55164) has a leverage of up to 5 times with a low premium and a redemption price of 84.9 HKD. UBS's bull certificate (54962) offers a similar leverage of 5.1 times with the same redemption price, providing a safety cushion relative to the current stock price [10]. - For bearish investors, JPMorgan's bear certificate (64393) offers a high leverage of 8.2 times with a redemption price of 105 HKD, making it an attractive option for those anticipating a short-term decline [10]. Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment towards Li Auto remains positive, with technical indicators suggesting short-term upward momentum and various derivative products available for both bullish and bearish strategies [14].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is at a critical decision point with its stock price showing mixed signals from various technical indicators, indicating potential volatility in the near term [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently fluctuating around 518.5 HKD, with short-term support at 508.21 HKD (MA10) and 502.79 HKD (MA30), while the medium-term support is at 496.57 HKD (MA60) [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 499 HKD and 483 HKD, while resistance levels are at 531 HKD and 547 HKD [4]. - The stock has shown a volatility of 5.4% over five days, with a narrowing Bollinger Band indicating an impending breakout [4]. Short-term Trading Strategy - If the stock price stabilizes above 515 HKD and breaks through 531 HKD, it may trigger a new upward trend, suggesting the use of high-leverage bull certificates or near-price call options [5]. - Conversely, if the price falls below the 499 HKD support, investors should be cautious of potential pullback risks and consider deploying bear certificates or put options for hedging [5]. Performance of Derivative Products - From June 3 to June 5, Tencent's stock rose by 1.98%, positively impacting related derivative products, with UBS bull certificates surging by 33% and HSBC bull certificates increasing by 30% [6]. - Call options from UBS and JPMorgan also saw significant gains of 18% and 11%, respectively, highlighting the leverage effect of these products in a rising market [6]. Recommended Products - Among the current options, UBS call option 17137 offers a leverage of 11.1 times with a strike price of 563.5 HKD, suitable for bullish investors [7]. - For bearish positions, JPMorgan put option 15137 provides a leverage of 9.7 times with a strike price of 443.33 HKD, presenting a low premium for investors anticipating a downturn [7]. Popular Bull and Bear Certificates - HSBC bull certificates 67818 and 67820 offer leverage of 9.5 times and 8.8 times, respectively, with redemption prices set at 465 HKD and 460 HKD [10]. - For bearish strategies, Societe Generale bear certificate 58795 provides a high leverage of 17.8 times with a redemption price of 546 HKD, while JPMorgan bear certificate 58426 offers an even higher leverage of 20.2 times with a redemption price of 540 HKD [10].

Group 1 - Zhaojin Mining (01818) has shown strong recent performance, with technical indicators suggesting continued upward momentum in the short term. As of 11:30 AM, the latest price was HKD 20.15, up 2.7%, with the 10-day moving average (HKD 18.3) crossing above the 30-day moving average (HKD 18.01), forming a "golden cross" that reflects a positive short-term trend [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 67, nearing the overbought zone but not extreme, while the MACD shows a "buy" signal. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating potential increased volatility. Key support levels are at HKD 18.6 and HKD 17.8, with resistance at HKD 20.9 and HKD 21.7. A breakthrough above HKD 20.9 could challenge higher levels [1] - The leverage effect of warrants has amplified returns, with Zhaojin Mining's stock price rising 8.76% on May 19, leading to significant gains in related warrants. Morgan Stanley's call option (27406) and UBS's call option (27337) recorded increases of 27% and 29%, respectively, exceeding the stock's rise by more than three times [4] Group 2 - Investors optimistic about Zhaojin Mining's potential to break through the HKD 20.9 resistance should consider longer-dated slightly out-of-the-money call options to balance time decay and leverage benefits. Current call options have varied terms, with exercise prices concentrated around HKD 18 and HKD 30. For instance, in-the-money products like Morgan Stanley's call option (27839) and UBS's call option (27337) have a leverage of 2.8 times, while out-of-the-money products have a leverage exceeding 3.3 times, with expiration dates in late November [7] - The market sentiment around Zhaojin Mining is influenced by strong gold prices and a robust technical outlook, although the RSI and Williams indicators are approaching overbought levels, raising questions about potential profit-taking in the short term. Investors are encouraged to share their strategies regarding whether to opt for warrants or directly purchase the underlying stock [10]