炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华尔街见闻 北欧主要养老金机构正加速撤离美国市场，以规避日益攀升的美国宏观经济风险、财政不确定性以及地 缘政治压力。 这一趋势已从固定收益领域蔓延至权益资产考量，瑞典与丹麦的大型养老金基金相继披露了针对美国国 债的大规模减持计划，而格陵兰岛的养老基金更是罕见地开始评估是否清仓美国股票，以抗议美国针对 该地区的政治施压。 格陵兰岛养老基金 SISA Pension 首席执行官 Søren Schock Petersen1月22日向彭博透露，该基金董事会正 就全面撤出美国市场展开激烈辩论。尽管尚未做出最终决定，但这标志着地缘政治紧张局势正迫使全球 小型资产持有者重新审视其在美国市场的敞口。与此同时，特朗普政府近期对格陵兰岛的领土主张引发 的局势紧张，已成为触发此次区域性资产配置调整的关键诱因。 在债券市场，撤资行动更为果决。瑞典最大的私人养老金基金 Alecta 与丹麦养老金基金 AkademikerPension 均已采取实质性行动。Alecta 首席投资官 Pablo Bernengo 向彭博证实，机构自 2025 年初以来已抛售 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Bank suggests that due to geopolitical risks, fiscal uncertainties, and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve, gold prices may potentially exceed $4000 per ounce in the short term [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical risks are contributing to the potential rise in gold prices [1] - Fiscal uncertainties are impacting market stability and investor confidence [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are influencing gold market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Congress is facing a government shutdown threat as the Senate did not vote on a temporary budget passed by the House, with the fiscal year ending on September 30 [1][4] - The House, controlled by Republicans, passed a short-term funding bill to maintain current funding levels until November 21, including an additional $8.8 million for security for government officials [4] - Senate Democrats are resistant to the House's funding bill, citing the lack of provisions for critical healthcare needs and seeking to include restrictions on the Trump administration's fiscal powers [4][5] Group 2 - Both parties are reluctant to take responsibility for a government shutdown, with Republicans aiming to blame Democrats while Democrats accuse Republicans of excluding them from the legislative process [5] - Analysts suggest that a "tweaked" short-term funding bill is likely to pass at the last moment to avoid a complete government shutdown, but if both parties maintain their positions, market volatility may increase [5][6] Group 3 - Historical government shutdowns have caused significant economic losses, with the 2018-2019 shutdown resulting in an estimated $11 billion loss, including $3 billion considered permanent [7] - A potential shutdown could lower GDP growth, with estimates suggesting a weekly shutdown could reduce growth by approximately 0.13 percentage points [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of the U.S. stock market, driven by a strong rebound in technology stocks, particularly following Alphabet's legal victory in an antitrust case, which alleviated regulatory concerns and provided new momentum for tech valuations [1][5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 24.58 points, or 0.05%, closing at 45,271.23 points; the S&P 500 rose by 0.51% to 6,448.26 points; and the Nasdaq Composite saw the strongest performance, increasing by 1.03% to 21,497.73 points [1][2]. - Alphabet's stock surged by 9.1%, becoming a key driver of the market rebound, while Apple also benefited, with its stock rising by 3.8% due to its continued partnership with Google [2][5]. Regulatory Environment - A federal judge ruled that Google can retain its Chrome browser status but must not enter into exclusive search agreements and must share some search data, indicating that AI has created more consumer choices and reducing the need for severe regulatory interventions [2][5]. Economic Indicators - Recent job vacancy data showed a decline to a low not seen since 2020, suggesting a potential cooling in the labor market, which heightens the focus on the upcoming non-farm payroll report [5]. - The article notes that September is historically a poor month for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a decline of 0.7% since 1950, and highlights the potential for increased volatility due to economic slowdown and political uncertainties [7]. Debt Market and Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. federal debt currently stands at $37.18 trillion, with concerns about a potential government shutdown due to budget disagreements [9]. - The article mentions a significant issuance of bonds, with 27 companies selling $43.3 billion in debt, marking one of the highest levels of issuance [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts express mixed sentiments about the market's direction, with some remaining optimistic about AI investments, while others caution about the challenges posed by economic conditions and regulatory uncertainties [7][9].

#报告 富国银行：法国的财政不确定性对更广泛的欧元区经济和欧元的影响有限。None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The French government is facing significant political uncertainty as Prime Minister Borne announced a confidence vote in the National Assembly on September 8 to facilitate the 2026 budget process, amid ongoing opposition [1] - The French stock market reacted negatively, with the CAC 40 index opening down 1.51%, reflecting concerns over political and fiscal instability, particularly among major banking stocks [1] - Major banks such as BNP Paribas, Société Générale, and Crédit Agricole saw significant declines in their stock prices, with drops of 6.19%, 6.31%, and 4.51% respectively [1] Group 2 - The French Economy Minister, Eric Lombard, indicated that if the government fails to secure the confidence vote, there is a possibility of intervention from the International Monetary Fund regarding France's finances [2] - Lombard warned of a potential sharp rise in French government bond yields, suggesting that France could become the weakest among EU countries in terms of debt burden [2] - He expressed concern that within two weeks, France's debt load could surpass that of Italy, which would be alarming for the country [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and economic data releases, particularly the upcoming JOLTS report [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Overview - As of June 3, gold prices experienced a decline of 0.57%, settling at $3361.56 per ounce after a significant surge the previous day [1]. - The upcoming JOLTS report from the U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau is anticipated to impact gold prices significantly [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, prompting strong reactions from the EU, which is preparing countermeasures [3]. - The announcement of increased tariffs and geopolitical tensions, such as Ukraine's attacks on Russia, have heightened market volatility and risk aversion, benefiting gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current environment of trade war concerns and financial uncertainty is favorable for gold predictions [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently defending against downward pressure near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3296.00 per ounce, with strong upward momentum in the 100-day and 200-day moving averages [4]. - The 4-hour chart suggests that gold may continue its upward trend, although technical indicators show signs of losing upward strength, indicating potential consolidation before the next directional movement [4].

Group 1 - The main reason for the surge in gold prices is the geopolitical risks heightened by Trump's recent tariff threats and Ukraine's attacks on Russia, which have increased safe-haven demand for gold [3] - Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to a significant drop in the US dollar, indicating a strong correlation between currency performance and gold valuation [3] Group 2 - Following the holiday surge, gold prices reached around 3392, with key resistance levels identified at 3390 and 3350, which are crucial for future market movements [5] - The analysis suggests a bearish outlook with a focus on short-term trading strategies, recommending to sell at 3390 and buy at 3350, while maintaining strict stop-loss levels [7]