专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月5日，ATFX汇市前瞻：本周五21：30，美国劳工统计局将公布美国12月非农就业报告，这是美国政 府停摆以来，第一个不受影响的完整月份非农就业报告，指导意义较强。报告中最受关注的数据是新增 非农就业人口，前值为6.4万人，预期值5.3万人，预期略显悲观。历史数据看，2025年5月份以来，美国 的新增非农就业人口数据一直低位徘徊，某些月份甚至跌入负值区间。从预期对行情的影响来看，非农 数据较差，可能不会显著利空美元指数。但是，非农数据超预期靓丽，极有可能显著提振美指。需要提 醒的是，11月份的数据曾被下修至-10.5万人，如果按照修正后的数据看，5.3万人算是比较乐观的预 期。不过，11月份有一半时间处于美国政府停摆状态，数据可靠性不足，12月份数据与11月份数据对比 产生的利多效应较弱。美国就业市场疲软的事实已经成为共识，只要非农数据不再出现严重的负增长， 公布值在5万人以下的话，预计对美元指数的冲击不会太强。 ▲ATFX图 ▲ATFX图 本周三18：00，欧盟统计局将公布欧元区12月CPI年率，前值为2.1%，预期值2%，预期略微下降。欧元 区12月核心CPI年率，前值为2. ...

支撑黄金高位震荡的关键：美国ADP就业数据疲软、美联储降息预期升温、美元走软。重点关注本周五 PCE通胀数据和下周美联储会议，可能引爆行情，想入手或变现的朋友别错过信号。 国内金价有变动，周大福、潮宏基等品牌金饰克价1328元，周生生跌6元、老凤祥跌2元，菜百1292元、 周六福1289元更划算。黄金回收价937元/克，工行金条972.23元、农行981.35元，实时变动记得盯紧。 12月4日黄金价格。 2025年12月4日黄金小幅回调，今日现货黄金差一度失守4200美元关口，目前现在伦敦现货报4201美元/ 盎司，美黄金4241美元/盎司。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long - term and suggest buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; Glass suggests selling call options [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests exiting long positions at high levels or range short - term trading; Aluminum suggests buying on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver suggest range trading [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade in a range; Soda ash's 01 contract suggests a bearish approach [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is expected to trade at a low level; Apples and jujubes are expected to trade weakly [1] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Pigs and eggs are expected to face resistance in rebounds; Corn is expected to trade weakly; Soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; Oils are expected to trade weakly [1] Core Views - After the end of Sino - US trade negotiations, the third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction, so it will enter a period of consolidation [5] - The main trading line of the Treasury bond market is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, and the motivation for the market to drive yields down continuously is not strong [5] - The coal market shows a pattern of tight supply and demand and rising prices, with a positive sentiment. The supply of coking coal and rebar may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term [8] - The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract [10] - The copper market is affected by macro and fundamental factors. In the short term, it is expected to remain high - level volatile, and long positions should be exited at high levels [11] - The aluminum market may face a correction after the previous over - rise, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions at high levels [12] - The nickel market has an uncertain supply due to new policies, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies moderately [17] - The tin market has an expected improvement in supply and weak downstream consumption. It is recommended to trade in a range [18] - The precious metal market, including gold and silver, is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand, but is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to trade in a range [19] - The PVC, caustic soda, and styrene markets are expected to be weak and volatile, mainly due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports [22][25][26] - The rubber market has insufficient cost support and a bearish sentiment due to inventory accumulation. The price is expected to continue to decline [28] - The urea market has a short - term rising price center due to factors such as reduced supply and increased demand, and it is recommended to trade in a range [30] - The methanol market has a limited rebound space due to factors such as tight local supply, weak downstream demand, and high inventory [32] - The polyolefin market has a certain cost support, but the upward pressure is large due to insufficient supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels [33] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish approach for the 01 contract [37] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to trade in a range due to factors such as increased global production and consumption and a decline in inventory [37] - The PTA market is expected to trade at a low level due to factors such as weak oil prices and supply - demand inventory accumulation [39] - The apple and jujube markets are expected to decline due to factors such as reduced quality and weak consumption [39][40] - The pig market has a high supply in the short - term and is expected to have a high supply in the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust positions according to different contracts [43] - The egg market has a large premium of the futures price over the spot price, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly [44] - The corn market is expected to build a bottom through consolidation, and it is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [47] - The soybean meal market is expected to rebound from a low level, and it is recommended to adjust positions according to price performance [49] - The oil market is expected to be volatile at a low level, with differences in performance among varieties. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and arbitrage opportunities [54] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares opened low and closed high. After the end of major events, the market enters a vacuum period and is expected to trade in a range. It is bullish in the medium to long - term and suggests buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts declined. The market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand and rising prices. The supply may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price is expected to be stable and strong in the short term [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price of rebar declined. The static valuation is neutral to low, and the demand has recovered while the inventory has continued to decline. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract and wait until after the new year to consider the 05 contract [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price reached a record high and then declined. It is affected by macro and fundamental factors. In the short term, it is expected to remain high - level volatile, and long positions should be exited at high levels or trade in a short - term range [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of Guinea's bauxite is stable, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has changed. The demand is weakening, and the inventory is being depleted. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high levels for different products [12] - **Nickel**: Indonesia has adjusted the RKAB policy, which may affect the supply of nickel ore. The supply of refined nickel is in surplus, and the price of nickel iron is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies moderately [17] - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production has decreased, and the supply of tin ore is expected to improve. The downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand [18] - **Silver and Gold**: After the Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut, the precious metal market is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand, but is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to US ADP employment data [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market has high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 4700 level [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is affected by alumina production and inventory. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 2400 level [25] - **Styrene**: The styrene market is affected by factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 6500 level [26] - **Rubber**: The rubber market has insufficient cost support and a bearish sentiment due to inventory accumulation. The price is expected to continue to decline [28] - **Urea**: The urea market has a short - term rising price center due to factors such as reduced supply and increased demand. It is recommended to trade in a range of 1600 - 1700 for the 01 contract [30] - **Methanol**: The methanol market has a limited rebound space due to factors such as tight local supply, weak downstream demand, and high inventory. It is recommended to trade in a range of 2230 - 2330 for the 01 contract [32] - **Polyolefin**: The polyolefin market has a certain cost support, but the upward pressure is large due to insufficient supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the 6900 and 6600 support levels for PE and PP respectively [33] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish approach for the 01 contract [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand have changed, with increased production and consumption and a decline in inventory. The price of seed cotton is high, and it is expected to trade in a range [37] - **PTA**: The PTA market is affected by oil prices and supply - demand inventory accumulation. It is expected to trade in a range of 4400 - 4700 [39] - **Apple and Jujube**: The apple and jujube markets are affected by factors such as reduced quality and weak consumption. The prices are expected to decline [39][40] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: The pig market has a high supply in the short - term and is expected to have a high supply in the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust positions according to different contracts and pay attention to secondary fattening and group enterprise sales [43] - **Eggs**: The egg market has a large premium of the futures price over the spot price, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and weather [44] - **Corn**: The corn market is affected by new grain listing and supply - demand factors. It is expected to build a bottom through consolidation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 2050 - 2170 range and 3 - 5 positive arbitrage [47] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the reduction of US soybean import tariffs and the expected adjustment of the US soybean supply - demand report. It is recommended to adjust positions according to price performance [49] - **Oils**: The oil market is affected by factors such as the supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. It is expected to be volatile at a low level, and it is recommended to pay attention to support levels and arbitrage opportunities [54]

每经AI快讯，9月4日，美国ADP就业数据公布后美元指数涨幅收窄，最新上涨0.08%，报98.221。 ...