欧元区11月份失业率降至6.3%，预期为6.4%。 欧元区11月份失业率降至6.3%，预期为6.4%。 ...

据Fortune等外媒报道，美元正经历自2017年以来最差的年度表现。截至2025年最后一个交易日，彭博美元现货指数累计下跌约8%，尤其在2025年4月美国 政府推出关税政策后大幅下挫。 在市场已普遍预期2026年美国将至少降息两次的背景下，美国的货币政策路径正与部分发达经济体出现分化，进一步削弱美元的吸引力。欧元兑美元显著 走强，主要由于欧元区通胀温和以及即将到来的国防支出浪潮，使市场对欧元区降息的押注几乎为零。与此同时，利率交易员预计加拿大、瑞典和澳大利 亚等地央行将加息。 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至2025年12月16日当周的数据显示，月内美元曾短暂出现看多仓位，但很快又回到自2025年4月以来占据主导的悲观 立场。 Monex Inc.外汇交易员Andrew Hazlett表示："哈西特作为长期领跑者，基本已被市场消化；但如果是沃什或沃勒，他们可能不会那么快降息，这对美元反 而更有利。" （图片来源：Fortune） 分析人士警告，如果下一任美联储主席如市场预期采取更大幅度的降息措施，美元可能进一步走弱。 野村证券外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi表示："2026年第一季度影响美元的最 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures price of the Container Freight Index (European Line) rose slightly. The main contract EC2602 closed up 1.75%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1510.56, up 1.46 points from last week, a 0.1% increase. The Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and leading shipping companies have successively lowered the container prices, causing the previous price increase to be reversed. The traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected due to high tax rates on exports to the US. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][39] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2512 fell 1.28% (- 21.20), closing at 1630.10; EC2602 rose 1.75% (29.60), closing at 1719.80; EC2604 rose 0.71% (8.00), closing at 1128.80; EC2606 rose 2.16% (27.20), closing at 1288.30; EC2608 rose 1.59% (22.70), closing at 1453.20; EC2610 rose 1.63% (16.80), closing at 1050.30. The SCFIS index rose 0.1% (1.46), closing at 1510.56. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract showed a divergence this week [9][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - China's re - implementation of export license management for steel after 16 years aims to strengthen monitoring, statistics and analysis of steel product exports and track product quality. The EU's FSR investigations on Chinese enterprises are opposed by China. The full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 expanded the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to over 6600 tariff items. The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on fuel - powered vehicles" requirement to a 90% emission reduction. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time. The Fed's Williams said that the US unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025, and inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027 [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week. The export container freight index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, while European - line shipping capacity decreased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [24][27][31] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, the Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and the traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [39][40]

智通财经APP获悉，周三公布的一项调查显示，欧元区 11 月的商业活动以两年半以来的最快速度增 长，强劲的服务业抵消了制造业的疲软态势。由标普全球编制的11月HCOB综合PMI终值上修为52.8， 创下30个月以来的新高，显示私营部门经济增长势头强劲，高于10月的52.4和预期的52.4，这是其连续 第六个月上涨。PMI 指数高于 50.0 表明经济活动呈增长态势，而低于该水平则意味着经济出现收缩。 汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia表示："欧元区的服务业已显示出明显的复苏迹象。服务业 的强劲表现甚至足以抵消制造业的疲弱，这意味着欧元区 11 月的经济产出增速略高于上月。" 欧元区11月服务业 PMI从 10 月的 53.0 升至 53.6，达到自 2023 年 5 月以来的最高水平，新业务量的增 长速度为 18 个月来最快。制造业则显示出疲软的迹象，工厂生产增长降至九个月以来的最低水平，新 订单略有下降。 大多数接受调查的欧元区国家都实现了经济扩张，其中爱尔兰的表现最为突出，其经济增长率达到了三 年半以来的最高水平。西班牙经济尽管增速有所放缓，但仍保持了强劲的增长态势，而意大利则实现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The private sector activity in the Eurozone remains strong in November, indicating potential acceleration in economic growth for the last months of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's November SPGI Composite PMI preliminary value is 52.4, nearly unchanged from October's 52.5, and remains above the critical threshold of 50, with analysts expecting 52.5 [1]. - The services sector achieved its best performance in a year and a half, helping to offset unexpected weakness in the manufacturing sector [3]. - The Eurozone's November SPGI Services PMI preliminary value is 53.1, exceeding market expectations, while the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 49.7, below the expected 50.2 [3]. Group 2: Country-Specific Performance - Germany continues to lead, although its economic expansion has slowed, with the November SPGI Composite PMI falling to 52.1, below expectations [3]. - France's economic performance exceeded expectations with a November SPGI Composite PMI of 49.9, although it remains below the growth threshold, impacted by long-standing budget issues [3]. - The private economy in France showed signs of stabilization in November after a slight decline in October, but the foundation for this stabilization remains unstable due to unresolved budget issues and ongoing political tensions [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The economic expansion in the Eurozone is expected to remain stable, with the services sector's significant share in the overall economy suggesting that growth in the fourth quarter should surpass that of the third quarter [5][6]. - Despite the manufacturing sector's drag on growth, the overall economic performance in Europe is better than expected, with projections indicating growth will remain close to this year's levels through 2026 due to new investments in infrastructure and military [6]. - The current economic conditions are not sufficient for the European Central Bank to further lower interest rates, which have already been halved from a peak of 4%, as inflation rates have rebounded close to the 2% target [6].

Core Insights - The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for November is reported at 25, an increase from the previous value of 22.7 [1] Group 1 - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index reflects a positive outlook among investors regarding the Eurozone's economic conditions [1] - The increase in the index indicates growing confidence in the Eurozone economy compared to the previous month [1]

Core Insights - The Eurozone's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for November is reported at 25, an increase from the previous value of 22.7 [1] Economic Indicators - The current ZEW Economic Sentiment Index reflects a positive shift in economic outlook among investors in the Eurozone [1] - The increase from 22.7 to 25 indicates a growing confidence in the economic recovery within the region [1]

Core Insights - The final manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in September is reported at 49.8, which is above the forecast of 49.5 and matches the previous value of 49.5 [1] Summary by Category - **Manufacturing Sector Performance** - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI indicates a slight improvement, with a final value of 49.8 for September, surpassing the expected 49.5 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a divergence in the Eurozone's economic performance, with services outperforming manufacturing, leading to a mixed economic outlook [1] - The Eurozone's September PMI preliminary value shows a significant split, with services rising to 51.4, surpassing the expected 50.5, while manufacturing fell to 49.5 from 50.7, indicating contraction [1] - Germany's manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5, below the neutral line, while services rebounded to 52.5, reflecting strong domestic demand [1] - France's economic indicators show weakness, with manufacturing PMI declining to 48.1 and services dropping to 48.9, suggesting greater economic pressure [1] - Overall, the Eurozone economy remains on the edge of moderate expansion, with service sector performance offsetting ongoing manufacturing weakness, alleviating some concerns about a deep recession [1] Group 2 - The Euro to USD exchange rate is stabilizing above the simple moving average (SMA) support at around 1.1730, indicating a mild bullish trend [2] - The 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are rising steadily below the short-term averages, aligning with limited demand for the USD [2] - Short-term momentum indicators show a neutral overall trend, with the relative strength index (RSI) slightly retreating to around 53 [2] - The Euro to USD is trading above all moving averages, with the 20-period simple moving average providing intraday support at approximately 1.1770 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the consumer confidence index in the Eurozone has shown an improvement, with the latest value at -14.9, which is better than the previous value of -15.5 and the forecast of -15.3, suggesting a positive outlook for consumer spending and the Euro [1][2] - The consumer confidence index is a leading indicator for consumer spending, and an increase in the index is expected to lead to higher future expenditures, which is favorable for the Euro [1] - The data is released monthly by Eurostat, based on surveys of consumers regarding their financial situation and the national economy, and the next release is scheduled for October 23, 2025 [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows fluctuations in the consumer confidence index, with the most recent values indicating a trend of improvement from -15.5 to -14.9, which has a positive impact on gold, silver, and oil prices, as well as the Euro [2] - The previous months' data indicates a mixed impact on commodities and the Euro, with some months showing a decline in confidence leading to negative effects on gold, silver, and oil [2]