2025年9月的联合国安理会会议结束时，德黑兰的夜色格外沉。中俄联手提交的决议想拦住对伊朗制裁的自动恢复，最终还是没能过关。投票结果出来那一 瞬，屏幕上的数字像一记闷棍：赞成的才4个，反对9个，还有2个干脆弃权。那种孤立的感觉，我记得看新闻时都屏住呼吸，好像空气都被挤压着。 看似是一场外交失利，其实更像是镜子，照出了伊朗这些年反复摇摆的战略代价。当中俄还在尽力为它据理力争时，最终却只有巴基斯坦和阿尔及利亚站在 同一阵线。曾经那个雄心万丈、握着霍尔木兹海峡命脉的中东强国，怎么走到被世界冷眼相待的地步？ 说到对东方的态度，我是真觉得伊朗挺拧巴。中国提出"一带一路"那会儿，伊朗地理位置算是黄金节点。中国愿意投基础设施、愿意合作能源、愿意分享技 术，可它总是半推半就。接受投资，却设卡；买无人机，却不愿开放联合研发。 伊朗这个国家，有时候真让人看不透。 我后来想了挺久，可能还是心态出了问题。波斯帝国的辉煌刻在他们的骨子里，这份自豪变成了矛盾：一边想融入西方，一边又瞧不起真正愿意帮它的东方 伙伴。鲁哈尼时代签核协议时那种"终于被国际社会接纳"的宣传口径，现在回看真的有点心酸。协议刚有点成效，特朗普一口翻桌走人，伊朗反应居 ...

Core Insights - The conference at South China University of Technology focused on the theme "Reconstructing Modernization: China and the Global South," discussing the future development of global southern countries through interdisciplinary dialogue [1][3] - Professor Danny Quah emphasized the need for a new adaptive multilateralism that does not require the participation of any specific country, advocating for voluntary alliances and rule reconstruction to achieve "cooperation without malice" [1][4][5] Group 1: Multilateralism and Global Cooperation - The traditional binary thinking of cooperation versus conflict, or North versus South, should be replaced with a more nuanced understanding of international relations [4][5] - An effective international system can function without the necessity of the United States, welcoming any country that wishes to join, including China [5][6] - The concept of a "-1" international system suggests that cooperation can occur even in the absence of major powers, allowing for continued collaboration based on friendly relations [6][9] Group 2: Economic Impacts and Challenges - The "China Shock" refers to the supply-side impact of affordable Chinese products affecting global markets, while the "American Shock" represents the demand-side impact of the U.S. limiting foreign goods [7][14] - The accumulation of unresolved global issues can hinder economic growth, necessitating a focus on development and cooperation to address these challenges [10][11] - The past reliance on developed countries (Global North) as a demand source for products is shifting, leading to concerns about overcapacity and job losses in the U.S. and other countries [14][15] Group 3: New International Order - A new international order should allow for cooperation even amidst tensions between nations, focusing on mutual interests rather than requiring friendly relations [10][16] - The establishment of a new multilateral system is essential to recalibrate and balance the global economic landscape, addressing overcapacity and market competition [15][17] - The potential for a simplified global platform similar to the WTO's MPIA mechanism exists, allowing countries willing to adhere to rules to collaborate effectively [17]

Group 1 - The trade conflict between the US and India has escalated rapidly, leading to significant diplomatic tensions and economic repercussions [3][12] - Trump's decision to increase tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50% is the highest globally, severely impacting India's exports to the US, particularly in jewelry, textiles, and pharmaceuticals [4][6] - India's response includes halting military purchases from the US, imposing retaliatory tariffs on American products, and seeking closer ties with China, indicating a strategic pivot away from reliance on the US [7][9][12] Group 2 - The US military-industrial complex is feeling the impact of India's military purchase cancellations, with companies like Boeing and Lockheed Martin experiencing stock price declines [9] - India's retaliatory measures include a 150% tariff on bourbon whiskey, which is a significant product from Trump's electoral base, causing domestic unrest among American farmers [9][12] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with India moving towards a multipolar world and reducing dependence on US hegemony, as evidenced by its engagement with BRICS nations and the potential for improved relations with China [12][13]

Core Points - The year marks the 50th anniversary of China-Europe diplomatic relations, emphasizing the importance of cooperation and partnership between the two regions [1] - China maintains a stable and continuous policy towards Europe, supporting European integration and strategic autonomy, regardless of the international situation [2] - China contributes approximately 30% to global economic growth annually, highlighting its role as a stabilizing force in the world [2] Group 1 - The trade volume between China and Europe now equals the total trade volume of previous years, indicating significant growth in their economic relationship [1] - The relationship is characterized by a commitment to partnership, cooperation, autonomy, and mutual benefits, aiming for a more resilient and mature future [1] - There are attempts to undermine China-Europe relations, but the overall trajectory is towards continued progress and stability [2] Group 2 - China positions itself as a key stabilizing force in the current chaotic international landscape, advocating for dialogue and political solutions to disputes [2] - The country emphasizes its commitment to non-interference in internal affairs and the protection of the rights of developing countries [2] - China expresses a willingness to collaborate with European nations to share opportunities and address global challenges together [3]