1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the recent production arrangement of refineries has increased, raising supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted, and the weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3634 - 3680 [7][9] - The cost side indicates that the loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production is 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 34.2761%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The refineries have increased production recently, raising supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7] - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.8%, the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, the modified asphalt开工率 is 14.5509%, the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 25%, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 28%. Except for a slight increase in the modified asphalt开工率, the others are either flat or decreased [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 524.18 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.60%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 875.78 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3634 - 3680 [9] - **Other Factors**: On July 21, the Shandong spot price is 3855 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 198 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 1319000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. The in - plant inventory is 761000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 210000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 22.22% [10] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base - price Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt base - prices from 2020 to 2025 [19][20] - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32] 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [37][40] - **Supply - side Analysis**: It involves aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Marrow crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume estimation [44][46][49] - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79] - **Demand - side Analysis**: It covers petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand), and asphalt开工率 (by type) [80][83][86] - **Supply - demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows an increase in production by refineries, leading to increased supply pressure. The demand during the peak season has not recovered as expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3603 - 3653 [8][10]. - The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is complex (social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port inventory is increasing), the disk is neutral, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions [8][11]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2539000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 33.9166%, a month - on - month increase of 0.779 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 261200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.91%. The output of sample enterprises is 566000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 582000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51%. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 14.383%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 460.93 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 838.2543 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.69%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short - term [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3603 - 3653 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base Price**: On July 17, the spot price in Shandong was 3820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 192 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1312000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. Factory inventory is 763000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.75% [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long, with an increase in long positions [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The asphalt processing profit has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased [9]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises shows certain trends over time [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory has changed over time [48][49]. - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of asphalt shows different trends in different years [52]. - **Price and Production of Venezuelan Crude Oil**: The price of Merey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil have shown trends over time [55][57]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The production of local refinery asphalt has changed over time [58][59]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt has shown trends over time [61][62]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: The estimated maintenance loss of asphalt has shown trends over time [63][64]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The exchange warehouse receipts (including total, social inventory, and factory inventory) have changed over time [66][69]. - **Social and Factory Inventory**: The social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt have shown trends over time [70][71]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The factory inventory inventory ratio has shown trends over time [73][74]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volume of asphalt has shown trends over time, and the import price difference of South Korean asphalt has also changed [76][77][80]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The petroleum coke production has shown trends over time [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of asphalt has shown trends over time [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand, including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales), has shown trends over time [88][93][95]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: The construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream construction (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane) have shown trends over time [97][100][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt from January 2024 to July 2025 [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, in June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The overall supply pressure is increasing [8]. - From the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - From the cost side, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,539 - 3,603 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The refineries' recent production arrangements have increased, raising the supply pressure. Next week, the supply pressure may further increase [8]. - **Demand**: The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port inventory are all decreasing continuously [11]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,539 - 3,603 [10]. - **Likely positives**: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [13]. - **Likely negatives**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [14]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Presents the price, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts and related indicators, including price changes, inventory changes, production volume changes, etc. For example, the 01 contract price increased by 0.21%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.52% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main contract spread**: Shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Compares the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25][26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Displays the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: Shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - Displays the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price changes in the asphalt spot market [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Displays the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: Displays the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Displays the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production volume**: Displays the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: Displays the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2020 to 2025 [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: Displays the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **开工率**: Displays the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: Displays the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt social inventory and factory inventory from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Factory inventory - inventory ratio**: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: Displays the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: Displays the historical data from 2019 to 2025 [87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: Displays the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, construction asphalt开工率, and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [95][96][98]. - **Downstream开工情况**: Displays the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production increase has raised supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventories are continuously decreasing. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3,528 - 3,596 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: Strengthening crude oil supports prices in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with asphalt 2509 in the 3,528 - 3,596 range [10]. - Factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - Logic: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Various contract data for asphalt are presented, including price changes, inventory changes, and开工率 changes. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.15%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.52% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - Charts show the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China over the years [20] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Mainly presents the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, and their ratio trends, as well as the cracking spread trends of crude oil [25][27][30] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The chart shows the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt over the years [37] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: Includes asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [40][43] - **Supply - side Analysis**: Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, maintenance loss volume estimation [46][48][51] - **Inventory Analysis**: Involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [66][70][73] - **Import and Export Analysis**: Presents the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [76][79][80] - **Demand - side Analysis**: Includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream mechanical demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [107][108]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: June 2, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Crude oil production increase expectations and macro bearish factors weaken cost support. Coupled with weak demand in the off - season and high inventory pressure, fuel oil maintains a pattern where it is easier to fall than to rise [5] Summary by Content Fundamental Information - Fujeirah fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.395 million barrels (a 12.7% decline) weekly, and the start of power generation demand in the Middle East alleviates regional supply pressure [4] - Middle - Eastern countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have increased high - sulfur fuel oil power generation tenders, supporting the fundamentals of the high - sulfur market [4] - Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 0.832 million barrels to 22.338 million barrels (a new high this year), and the inflow of European cargoes intensifies supply looseness [4] - During the off - season of marine fuel consumption and with the expectation of refinery restart, the spot price dropped by 85 yuan/ton weekly; OPEC+ production increase expectations suppress crude oil costs [4] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil M + 2 was at $472.35/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily increase of $6.73 and a weekly decrease of $0.98. Other regions also had corresponding price changes [6] - **Spread Changes**: LU futures M + 3 - Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil M + 2 was at $6.4711/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of $19.6327 and a weekly decrease of $6.7902. Other spreads also had different changes [6] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil M + 1 was at $407.54/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of $3.84 and a weekly decrease of $12.86. Other regions also had price fluctuations [28] - **Spread Changes**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil monthly spread was at 7.45 on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of 7.23 and a weekly decrease of 10.42. Other spreads also changed accordingly [28] Supply and Demand - Related Data - **Supply**: Data on low - sulfur fuel oil exports from Kuwait, Brazil, and Russia, as well as China's bonded port fuel oil monthly supply are presented [15][17][21] - **Demand**: Data on China's low - sulfur fuel oil port actual consumption, Singapore's marine fuel bunkering volume, and high - sulfur fuel oil sales in Singapore and Fujairah are provided [22][29][40] Inventory - Related Data - Inventory data for Singapore's residue, ARA fuel oil, Fujeirah fuel oil, and fuel oil in Zhoushan Port's bonded warehouse are shown [24][25] - Seasonal data on high - sulfur floating storage inventories in Malaysia and Singapore are also presented [48][49] Other Data - Seasonal data on low - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads, monthly spreads, and price differences between different regions are provided [7][9][12] - Seasonal data on high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads, monthly spreads, and price differences between different regions are also included [32][34][37]