1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, but the supply pressure may decrease next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the cost support will strengthen in the short term [9]. - Overall, it is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3489 - 3569 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production is 2.187 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The sample capacity utilization rate is 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80% [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 21.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 0%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 4%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points [9]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97% [9]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3489 - 3569 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Prices**: The prices of various asphalt futures contracts have increased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract increased from 3268 to 3395, an increase of 3.89%; the 06 contract increased from 3372 to 3555, an increase of 5.43% [16]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.096 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93%; the in - plant inventory is 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.34%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 770,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [18]. - **Production and Sales**: The sample enterprise output is 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%; the weekly shipment volume is 130,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report provides the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20][21][23]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2026, which is helpful for spread trading analysis [25][26]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28][29]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profitability of refining [31][32][33]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio**: The report provides the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps in understanding the relative price relationships among different energy products [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for understanding the regional price differences of asphalt [38][39]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt, showing the historical profit situations from 2019 to 2026 [41][44]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss volume, etc., providing a comprehensive view of the asphalt supply situation [47][50][53]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, in - plant inventory inventory ratio, etc., reflecting the inventory status of asphalt [69][73][76]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [79][82][84]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream mechanical demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, roller sales, excavator monthly working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, classified by use), and downstream开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt), which comprehensively reflects the asphalt demand situation [85][87][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [107][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "Valuation Short Allocation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the recovery of production and the alleviation of external trade pressure, the valuation of asphalt is expected to decline. It is recommended to short - allocate the asphalt/crude oil price - to - value ratio [15] - In the medium - term, the downward movement of asphalt valuation is likely. The upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil) and the unilateral price of asphalt will be restricted [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents the recent trend of the asphalt main contract, showing the impact of supply - demand and cost factors [13][14] - **Weekly Assessment**: In terms of supply, the domestic production of heavy - traffic asphalt has entered the traditional peak season, while overseas imports remain relatively low. In terms of demand, the demand for waterproofing membranes is better than expected, and overall demand has slightly recovered compared to previous years. Inventory is affected by trade imports and is better than before, but port arrivals may suppress inventory reduction in the inland. The upward space of the crude oil cost is limited, and OPEC is expected to enter a new cycle of slight production increase [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The previous view was to hold a wait - and - see attitude towards all oil products. The current view is to short - allocate the asphalt/crude oil price - to - value ratio due to the expected decline in asphalt valuation [15] - **Medium - term Factors and Assessment**: In the medium - term, supply, demand, and cost factors are all expected to have a negative impact on asphalt valuation. The upward space of asphalt valuation and the unilateral price of asphalt will be restricted [16] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, East China, Northeast China, and North China [20][21] - **Basis Trend**: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China [27] - **Term Structure**: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts [30] 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, the production profit of Shandong asphalt, and the relationship between asphalt production and profit and crude oil price [35] - **Imports**: It presents the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, import profit, and the cumulative import volume from different countries [37][40] - **Valuation Ratio**: It shows the ratios of fuel oil to asphalt and asphalt to Brent [43] - **Refinery Profit**: It presents the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the production profit and start - up rate of petroleum coke [46][49] 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the inventory of domestic factories, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and the port inventory of diluted asphalt [53] - **Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [57] - **Inventory and Price**: It shows the relationship between inventory and profit, and the relationship between profit and price [61] 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [67] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: It presents the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [74][72] - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative investment in highway construction, the monthly year - on - year change and monthly value of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [77] - **Road - related Machinery**: It presents the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative investment in highway construction [80] - **Related Consumption**: It shows the cumulative year - on - year change of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [83][84] 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It presents the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [90][92] 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It briefly mentions the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [96] - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used for road construction. By use, it can be divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [99]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The overall supply pressure will be reduced in the next week. [8] - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points. [8] - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. [9] - In terms of the basis, on February 4th, the Shandong spot price is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 9 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. It is considered neutral. [9] - Regarding inventory, the social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%; the refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. It is considered bullish. [9] - In terms of the disk, the MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20. It is considered bullish. [9] - Regarding the main positions, the main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is considered bearish. [9] - The overall expectation is that the refinery's recent production plan has been cut, reducing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory continues to decline. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and the asphalt 2701 will fluctuate in the range of 3,327 - 3,395. [9] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support. [11] - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthening expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States. [12] - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the recovery on the demand side is weak. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply side: The domestic refinery asphalt production plan in February 2026 is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production this week, and the supply pressure is expected to be reduced next week. [8] - Demand side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points. The overall demand is lower than the historical average. [8] - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. [9] - Basis: On February 4th, the Shandong spot price is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 9 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. It is considered neutral. [9] - Inventory: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%; the refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. It is considered bullish. [9] - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20. It is considered bullish. [9] - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is considered bearish. [9] - Expectation: The refinery's recent production plan has been cut, reducing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory continues to decline. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and the asphalt 2701 will fluctuate in the range of 3,327 - 3,395. [9] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026. [19][20][21] - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026. [23][24] - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026. [27] - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026. [30][31] - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026. [34] 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the historical price trends of East China and Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2026. [36][37] 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026. [40] - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026. [43][44] - **Supply side**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026. [45][46] - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026. [48][49] - **Production volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2026. [52] - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026. [54][56] - **Refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025. [57][59] - **Capacity utilization rate**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026. [60][61] - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: It shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2026. [63][64] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026. [66][67] - **Social inventory and refinery inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026. [70][71] - **Refinery inventory - to - stock ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026. [74][75] - **Import and export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025. [77][78] - **South Korean asphalt import spread trend**: It shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026. [80][81] - **Demand side**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025. [83][84] - **Apparent consumption**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025. [86][87] - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025. [89][90] - **New local special bonds**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025. [91] - **Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: It shows the historical trends of the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024. [91] - **Downstream machinery demand**: It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025. [93][94][96] - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026. [98][99] - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: It shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026. [101][102] - **Downstream开工率**: It shows the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, TPR for shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026. [104][105][106] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory. [108]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Hold [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium - term, it is likely that the asphalt valuation will decline in the second half of the year. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period are expected to limit the upward space of asphalt valuation. The weak and volatile cost side of crude oil will also restrict the upward space of asphalt's unilateral price [16]. - In the short - term, due to Venezuela's ongoing production increase and the release of its maritime inventory, which will suppress asphalt prices, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt's main contract in recent months is presented, with supply - demand and cost factors marked at different time points [13][14]. - **Medium - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and major refineries are expected to resume some production, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium - term. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of the demand side has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected, and the overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure seasonal peak. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the central range of wide - range fluctuations in oil prices is expected to move down slightly [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: Supply is neutral - bearish as the heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is rising and overall imports remain strong; demand is bearish as the start - up rates of all sub - sectors on the demand side are weak and the downstream shipment is dull; inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced in) as there is a problem of weak de - stocking in the overall inventory and the domestic total inventory exceeds expectations; the cost of crude oil is expected to stop falling and stabilize, entering a weak - fluctuation process [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: The spot price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions are analyzed [20][22][24]. - **Basis Trends**: The basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions are presented [32]. - **Term Structure**: The term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts are analyzed [34]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profits**: The capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit margins of Shandong asphalt are analyzed, along with the relationships between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [41][44][45]. - **Imports**: The import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume of asphalt from different countries are presented, as well as the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil [49][50][53]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent are analyzed [56]. - **Refinery Profits**: The refining profit margins of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit margin of petroleum coke, are analyzed [59][62]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory are analyzed [66][67]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The trends of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main asphalt contract are presented [70]. - **Inventory and Price**: The relationships between inventory, profit, and price are analyzed [72][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: The asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises are analyzed [78][80][83]. - **Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes are analyzed [86][88][92]. - **Highway Investment**: The cumulative investment in highway construction and the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of public fiscal expenditures on transportation are analyzed, as well as the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditures [93][96][100]. - **Road - related Machinery**: The monthly sales volumes and working hours of road - related machinery such as rollers and excavators are analyzed [101][105]. - **Related Consumption**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway, road, and water conservancy industries, as well as the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds, are analyzed [108][109]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Positions, Trading Volumes, and Price Volatility**: The trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures are analyzed [114][117][119]. 3.7 Industry Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industry Chain**: The exploration and production links of the crude oil industry chain are presented [123][124]. - **Asphalt Industry Chain**: The production processes and uses of asphalt are introduced [125][127].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation pattern. On the spot side, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina are stable, and the prices of拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina are also stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. Previously, the disk drive was affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion, and the future domestic consumption potential [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6516, 6543, and 6568 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by 6, 14, and 15 respectively, with daily price changes of -0.09%, -0.21%, and -0.23%. The trading volumes were 74760, 300927, and 6417, and the open interests were 135903, 510143, and 10432, with changes of -14270, 21355, and 1247 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -27, -25, and 52, compared with the previous values of -35, -26, and 61 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6192, 6256, and 6291 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they increased by 14, 2, and 14 respectively, with daily price changes of 0.23%, 0.03%, and 0.22%. The trading volumes were 128985, 303323, and 6466, and the open interests were 195372, 497942, and 26213, with changes of -23998, 11398, and 1729 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -64, -35, and 99, compared with the previous values of -76, -23, and 99 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2131 yuan/ton, 6055 yuan/ton, 594 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, methanol futures increased by 4 yuan/ton, Shandong propylene decreased by 10 yuan/ton, South China propane decreased by 5 dollars/ton, and North China powder materials decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market - Middle Reaches**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6850, 6500 - 6750, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively, remaining the same as the previous values. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6300, 6050 - 6200, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively, also remaining the same as the previous values [2]. News - On Tuesday (December 16), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $55.27 per barrel, down $1.55 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.73%, with a trading range of $54.98 - $56.70. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $58.92 per barrel, down $1.64 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.71%, with a trading range of $58.72 - $60.40 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the asphalt market is that the supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The asphalt 2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 2935 - 2985 [8][9]. - The supply side shows that the planned production volume in December 2025 decreased slightly compared with the previous month, but the production capacity utilization rate increased this week, and the refineries increased production, which may increase the supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average level, with the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related products mostly below the historical average [8]. - The cost side shows that the asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The base - point situation on December 11 shows that the spot price in Shandong is at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish factor [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is in a state of continuous destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are in a state of continuous accumulation, showing a neutral situation [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 30.0815%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The sample enterprises' shipment volume is 280,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.06%, and the output is 502,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 826,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.61%. The refineries increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and the supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.9%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 9.2238%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 529.49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1,003.1686 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the crude oil is weakening, with the support expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Base - point**: On December 11, the spot price in Shandong is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%; the factory - level inventory is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 670,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.54%. The social inventory is continuously destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are continuously accumulating, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production arrangements have increased production, increasing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; the inventory is flat; the crude oil is weakening, and the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating between 2935 - 2985 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including price changes, basis changes, and inventory changes compared with the previous period [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spreads between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][43]. - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Output**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The report presents the historical trends of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory - level inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [66][69]. - **Social Inventory and Factory - level Inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and factory - level inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [70][71]. - **Factory - level Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory - level inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation** - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][80]. - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment, New Local Special Bonds, and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [100][101]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2025 [102][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory - level inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the valuation of asphalt may decline in the second half of the year. The current operating rate of independent refineries is at a low level with limited downward space. The combination of the return of major refinery capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period is expected to restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation, and the weak oscillation of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - sided price [15]. - In the short term, the weakness of asphalt persists, but the marginal contradiction between supply and demand has eased, so it is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt main contract from January to December 2025 is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. There are fluctuations such as supply - demand increase, cost decrease, and supply - demand decrease at different times [13][14]. - **Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, major refineries are expected to resume some operations, restricting the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while independent refineries will remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium term. On the demand side, the start - up rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. For the cost factor, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the central oscillation range is expected to move down slightly [15]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: The start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is rising, and overall imports are strong; demand - side sub - items are weak, and downstream shipments are dull; the inventory shows difficulty in destocking; the crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, entering a weak oscillation phase [16]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [19][22][26][30]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2021 to 2025 [32]. - **Term Structure**: It includes the term structure of asphalt, the price differences between different contracts (such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, 03 - 06), and their historical trends from 2022 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the trends of asphalt capacity utilization, production profit in Shandong, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. - **Imports**: It includes the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, import profit from different regions (such as South China - Singapore, East China - South Korea), and the cumulative import volume from different countries (South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia) from 2021 to 2025 [54][56][61]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It presents the trends of the fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent ratios from 2021 to 2025 [64]. - **Refinery Profit**: It shows the refining profit trends of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit trends of petroleum coke from 2021 to 2025 [67][70]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It includes the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [75]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the trends of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main asphalt contract from 2021 to 2025 [78]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: It presents the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [82]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, North China sample enterprises from 2023 to 2025 [86]. - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: It includes the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2025 [97][100]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative highway construction investment, monthly transportation fiscal expenditure, and their relationship with asphalt demand from 2021 to 2025 [102][109]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It includes the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and their relationship with highway construction investment from 2021 to 2025 [114][117]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, as well as the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds from 2021 to 2025 [120][121]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trends of asphalt trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility from 2021 to 2025 [128][129][131]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It involves exploration and extraction links [135][136]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From a production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into five types, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used for road construction. According to its use, it can be divided into three types, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [139].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase in the short - term as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support has strengthened in the short - term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2926 - 2978 [7]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.4823%, a month - on - month increase of 3.056 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 262100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74%, and the sample enterprises' output is 492000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.56%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprises' devices is 866000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.60%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, the same as last month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 10.5658%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 33.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 496.91 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1102.9986 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The processing loss of asphalt has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [7]. - **Basis**: On December 4th, the spot price in Shandong is 2940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 23 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%. The in - factory inventory is 588000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 570000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.75%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - factory inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing. It is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes below the MA20. It is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: There are charts showing the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: There are charts showing the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Cracking Spread**: There are charts showing the cracking spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: There are charts showing the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - There is a chart showing the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: There is a chart showing the asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: There is a chart showing the coking - asphalt profit spread trend from 2020 to 2025 [43]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: There is a chart showing the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: There is a chart showing the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [48]. - **Output**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [51]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: There is a chart showing the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend from 2018 to 2025 [56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: There is a chart showing the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [58]. - **Operating Rate**: There is a chart showing the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: There is a chart showing the estimated maintenance loss volume trend from 2018 to 2025 [64]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: There are charts showing the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [67][68]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [71]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: There is a chart showing the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [74]. - **Import and Export Situation** - There are charts showing the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 to 2025 [77]. - There is a chart showing the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [80]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: There is a chart showing the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: There is a chart showing the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [86]. - **Downstream Demand** - There are charts showing the highway construction transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [89][90]. - There are charts showing the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume, and the roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [93][95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - There is a chart showing the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [98]. - There are charts showing the construction asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [101]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: There are charts showing the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [104][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: There is a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure remains high on the supply - side, and the recovery is weak on the demand - side [12] - The high - priced asphalt has insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11] - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support [10] - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating between 2981 - 3033 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment was 245,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.28%. The sample enterprises' output was 441,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.59%. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8] - **Demand - side**: The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt was 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工率 of construction asphalt was 6%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工率 of modified asphalt was 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 34%, flat month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the开工率 of waterproofing membranes was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - **Cost - side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8] - **Basis**: On November 27, the spot price in Shandong was 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 3 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; factory inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and factory inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate [8] - **Market Chart**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8] - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [8] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's asphalt market, including the prices, changes, and trading volumes of different contracts, as well as inventory, production, and demand indicators [15] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [18][20] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 - 2025 [29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Displays the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [43] - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: Displays the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [46] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 - 2025 [48] - **Production Volume**: Displays the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Shows the historical price trends of Marey crude oil and the monthly production volumes of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [56] - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: Displays the historical production volumes of refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [58] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: Displays the historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [61] - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: Shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [64] - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Displays the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [67][68] - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: Shows the historical social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [71] - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: Displays the historical factory inventory - inventory ratios of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [74] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Displays the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [77] - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: Shows the historical import spread trends of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [80] - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Displays the historical production volumes of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [83] - **Apparent Consumption**: Shows the historical apparent consumption volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [86] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: Displays the historical highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment trends from 2020 - 2025 [89] - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: Shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year completion of infrastructure investment from 2019 - 2025 [90] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Displays the historical sales volumes of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the sales volumes of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2019 - 2025 [93][95] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: Displays the historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [98] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: Shows the historical capacity utilization rates of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: Displays the historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 - 2025 [102][104] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to November 2025, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and production data [107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. [8] - The demand - side indicates that the开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt are generally lower than the historical average, with only the road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane开工率 slightly better. Overall, current demand is below the historical average. [8] - From the cost perspective, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. Asphalt processing losses have increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen. [8] - The basis shows that on November 25, the spot price in Shandong is 3,020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [8] - In terms of inventory, social inventory is 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. [8] - The market trend suggests that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing. Considering the above factors, it is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3,043 - 3,093 in the short term. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side data shows changes in production, capacity utilization, and device maintenance. Demand - side开工率s are generally low. Cost - side processing profits and profit differences have changed, and crude oil is expected to support prices. [8] - **Basis**: The spot in Shandong is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [8] - **Inventory**: Social and factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. [8] - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract closes below it. The main positions are net short. [8] - **Expectation**: The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,043 - 3,093 in the short term. [8] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices. [18][19][20] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis. [22][23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices. [25][26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing refining profits. [28][29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price ratio trends of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can assist in relative - value analysis. [32][34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps understand the price changes in the spot market. [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production. [38][39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the profit relationship between different refining products. [41][42][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which can reflect the sales situation of asphalt. [45][46] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing supply - side inventory changes. [47][48] - **Production Volume**: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help understand the overall supply situation. [50][51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can affect the cost and supply of asphalt. [54][56] - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is an important part of asphalt supply. [57][58] - **开工率**: The historical weekly开工率 of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can reflect the production activity of the asphalt industry. [60][61] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can affect the supply of asphalt. [63][64] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the inventory situation in the futures market. [66][67][68] - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The historical social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are presented, which are important indicators of supply - demand balance. [70][71] - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the inventory management of factories. [73][74] - **Import - Export Situation** - The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can affect the domestic supply - demand balance. [76][77] - The historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing import costs. [80][81] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt in the refining process. [82][83] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can reflect the overall market demand. [85][86] - **Downstream Demand** - **Infrastructure - related**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction. [88][90] - **Mechanical Demand**: The historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the construction activity and demand for asphalt. [92][93][95] - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: The historical开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can reflect the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt. [97][98] - **By - Use Asphalt**: The historical开工率s of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the demand for different types of asphalt. [100] - **Downstream开工情况**: The historical开工率s of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can reflect the demand for asphalt in downstream industries. [101][102][104] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export, import, and production, which can comprehensively reflect the supply - demand relationship of asphalt. [106][107]