Group 1 - The article discusses the recent increase in tariffs announced by Trump for 14 countries, effective August 1, which is close to the reciprocal tariffs from early April [1][14] - As of May, the average tariff rate in the U.S. was 7.4%, with specific rates for countries such as China (38.6%), Japan (9.3%), and the UK (6.2%) [2][15] - The U.S. may adopt a strategy of sending tariff increase notifications in batches to exert targeted pressure during negotiations [2][15] Group 2 - Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan have reached a stalemate, particularly over issues related to automobile tariffs, while discussions with Mexico are nearing an agreement [3][16] - The EU aims for a limited framework agreement with the U.S., maintaining a 10% baseline tariff but seeking reductions in tariffs on specific products [3][16] - If all tariffs take effect on August 1, the simple average tariff rate for the U.S. on these 14 countries will rise to 29%, only 4 percentage points lower than the initial reciprocal tariff rate of 33% [5][18] Group 3 - Trump's tariff strategy aims to achieve three goals: industrial protection, addressing twin deficits, and leveraging diplomacy, which may create internal contradictions [4][17] - The concept of reciprocal tariffs is viewed as discriminatory, with trade deficit size being a key consideration for determining baseline tariff levels [4][17] - Approximately 100 economies with smaller trade surpluses with the U.S. may face a 10% tariff, while 18 countries could see higher tariffs ranging from 20% to 70% if no agreements are reached [5][17]

2025 年 07 月 09 日 从对等关税到"歧视性关税" 证券分析师 (8621)23297818× zhaovu2@swsresearch.com 美东时间 7 月 7 日，特朗普向日本、韩国等 14 国发送了上调关税的信件。新关税将于 8 月 1 日生效,税率较为接近 4 月初的对等关税。市场选择"理性忽视",等待后续的数据验证。 一、美国关税执行现状?特朗普推迟关税暂停截至日,或分批发出关税上调信函 截至 5 月,美国平均关税税率 7.4%,加征进度偏慢。截至最新数据,美国对中国税率 38.6%, 对日本 9.3%、对英国 6.2%,对越南 4.8%、对德国 6%。主要产品关税中,汽车进口税率 13.4%, 钢制产品进口税率 29.5%、铝产品 23%，塑料产品 11.3%，电气设备 8.3%。 7 月 7 日，美国宣布提升 14 国关税，生效日期推迟至 8 月 1 日。 4 月 2 日对等关税的市场冲 击超预期，9 日特朗普宣布关税暂缓 90天，仅实施 10%的基准税。7月7日，特朗普宣布提 升 14 国关税,但生效日期推迟至 8月 1 日,或有意向谈判各方施压。 特朗普或选择分批发送关税信函,集 ...

2025 年 07 月 09 日 从对等关税到"歧视性关税" 世 界 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵宇 (8621)23297818× zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 美东时间 7 月 7 日，特朗普向日本、韩国等 14 国发送了上调关税的信件。新关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，税率较为接近 4 月初的对等关税。市场选择"理性忽视"，等待后续的数据验证。 一、美国关税执行现状？特朗普推迟关税暂停截至日，或分批发出关税上调信函 截至 5 月，美国平均关税税率 7.4%，加征进度偏慢。截至最新数据，美国对中国税率 38.6%， 对日本 9.3%、对英国 6.2%，对越南 4.8%、对德国 6%。主要产品关税中，汽车进口税率 13.4%， 钢制产品进口税率 29.5%、铝产品 23%，塑料产品 11.3%，电气设备 8.3%。 7 月 7 日，美国宣布提 ...