报告导读： 本篇是海外水泥国别研究第七篇，详细阐述了刚果（金）经济发展概况、水泥 供需情况、竞争格局、盈利能力及趋势。 刚果（金）是人口众多的资源大国，流通美元。 刚果（金）位于非洲中部，人口过亿，以234.54万平方公里国土面积位居非洲第二。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 虽然刚果（金）经济发展水平较低，人均GDP仅600多美元，但是矿产丰富。 铜的储量7500万吨，占世界的15%；钴的储量450万吨，占世界的50%；钽铌 矿资源3000万吨，占世界总量的80%。 价格高但盈利不易。 刚果（金）水泥价格属于非洲最高的区域之一，市场价格约 170-400 美元 / 吨（价格与距离工厂远近有关）。价格虽高，但 CILU 和 PPC Barnet 等企业却出现亏损，我们认为主要是因为 ...

Economic Overview - Ethiopia, with a population exceeding 130 million, is the second most populous country in Africa and has a rapidly growing economy despite its low development level [1] - The country faces significant investment challenges due to high inflation and severe foreign exchange shortages, with the Ethiopian birr depreciating from 58:1 to 149:1 against the US dollar between July 2024 and October 2025 [1] Cement Supply and Demand - The cement production and sales in Ethiopia are experiencing rapid growth, driven by economic development and population increase [1] - Major cement production facilities include a 1.3 million ton line by West Cement launched in October 2020 and a 5 million ton line by Lemi set to launch in August 2024, which will help alleviate cement shortages [1] Competitive Landscape - The Ethiopian cement market is characterized by five major companies, with West Cement leading at 6.3 million tons of capacity, holding a 43% market share [1] - Other significant players include Dangote and Derba, each with 2.5 million tons of capacity, followed by Messebo and Habesha with 2.1 million and 1.4 million tons, respectively [1] Profitability and Trends - The profitability of the cement sector is under short-term pressure due to multiple factors, including the large-scale production capacity coming online, rapid currency depreciation, and delays in infrastructure projects affecting local demand [2] - Cement prices have dropped sharply from approximately $120 per ton in the first half of 2024 to $50 per ton, impacting profitability [2]

Group 1: Economic Overview - Zimbabwe has a rapidly growing population exceeding 15 million and a significant mineral wealth, including 16.5 million tons of diamond reserves, 13 million tons of gold reserves, 2.8 billion tons of platinum group resources, and 200 million tons of lithium [1] - The economy is highly dollarized, with over 80% of transactions conducted in US dollars due to rapid currency depreciation [1] Group 2: Cement Supply and Demand - There is a severe shortage of cement in Zimbabwe, with a production of 1.35 million tons in 2022 against a demand of 1.86 million tons, necessitating substantial imports from countries like Zambia [2] - The supply structure is simple and stable, with only three clinker plants operating in the country [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - PPC leads the market with a cement production capacity of 1.4 million tons, followed by Khayah (formerly Lafarge) with a capacity of 900,000 tons [3] Group 4: Pricing and Profitability - Due to the cement shortage, prices are high, with the import price of cement in 2023 reaching approximately $111 per ton, primarily sourced from Zambia [4] - High prices have resulted in significant profitability, with an expected EBITDA of $46 per ton for the fiscal year 2025 [4] Group 5: Market Correlation - The market prices in the Central African region, particularly between Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, show strong correlation due to substantial cement exports from Zambia to these countries [5]

Core Insights - The article provides an in-depth analysis of the economic development, cement supply and demand situation, competitive landscape, profitability, and trend predictions for Zambia and Malawi [1] Economic Overview - Both Zambia and Malawi have low economic development levels, with Malawi facing a significant cement supply gap that necessitates imports from Zambia and other countries [2] - Zambia has a rich mineral resource base, particularly in copper and cobalt, with favorable foreign exchange conditions, while Malawi has experienced significant currency depreciation and some foreign exchange controls [2] Cement Supply and Demand - Malawi's cement production is insufficient, with an output of less than 500,000 tons against a demand of over 1.7 million tons, indicating a substantial supply gap [2] - Zambia is a dominant player in the local cement market, exporting cement clinker to Malawi and Zimbabwe to address local supply shortages [2][3] Competitive Landscape - Huaxin Cement is the largest cement producer in Zambia, with a production capacity of 1.77 million tons, accounting for approximately one-third of the market share [3] - In Malawi, only two companies are capable of producing cement, with Huaxin Cement expected to lead the market after commissioning its plant in September 2025, contributing 800,000 tons to the local capacity [3] Pricing and Profitability - Cement prices in Malawi are notably high at $200 per ton, positioning it among the highest price regions in sub-Saharan Africa [4] - Zambia's cement prices remain elevated, with Dangote's Q3 factory price nearing $110 per ton, benefiting from stable competition and regional price linkages [4] - Zambia's profitability is robust, with Chilanga expected to achieve over $20 million in net profit from a production capacity of 1.2 million tons in 2024, translating to a net profit of over $20 per ton [5] Future Outlook - The demand for cement in both Zambia and Malawi is expected to rise, while supply remains stable, suggesting that prices are likely to maintain high levels [6] - Huaxin Cement plans to expand its production capacity in both Zambia and Malawi by 2025 [6]

水泥出海国别研究之赞比亚、马拉维 [Table_Industry] 水泥制造业 海外水泥国别研究系列 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | baoyanxin@gtht.com | S0880513070005 | | 申浩(分析师) | 021-23185636 | shenhao2@gtht.com | S0880525040041 | | 花健祎(分析师) | 0755-23976858 | huajianyi@gtht.com | S0880521010001 | | 冯晨阳(分析师) | 021-23183846 | fengchenyang@gtht.com | S0880525040020 | 本报告导读： 本篇是海外水泥国别研究第三篇，详细阐述了赞比亚、马拉维经济发展概况、水泥 供需情况、竞争格局、盈利能力及趋势判断。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 两国经济发展水平低，马拉维水泥缺口较大，需从赞比亚等国进口。 赞比亚、马拉维人口基数 ...

Economic Overview - South Africa's economic development is stagnant, but the country has a friendly foreign exchange environment and stable cement demand at around 12 million tons [2] - The financial sector is well-developed, and the country has abundant mineral resources and sufficient foreign exchange reserves [2] Supply and Demand - The supply structure is acceptable, with six major cement companies; PPC holds a 35% market share, while Huaxin Cement ranks fourth with a 13% share [3] - Cement demand has remained stable over the years, with no significant increase in production capacity, and even a decrease in active capacity [3] Import Impact - South Africa's cement imports are significant, projected at 1.69 million tons in 2024, with 88% sourced from Vietnam and 76% entering through Durban [4] Profitability - The ex-factory price of Dangote cement in South Africa is around $65 per ton, with high transportation costs leading to low profitability for PPC and Dangote [5] - There is potential for profitability improvement through policy measures to restrict imports and enhance domestic transportation conditions, as well as technological advancements to reduce costs [5] Carbon Tax Considerations - The imposition of a carbon tax in South Africa necessitates monitoring of its impact on policies and profitability [6]

Core Insights - The recent focus on cement companies expanding overseas is driven by weak domestic demand and a relatively slow improvement in supply-demand dynamics, making international markets a key growth avenue for leading firms [1] Group 1: African Market Potential - The cement demand in sub-Saharan Africa is significantly lower than the global average, with a per capita consumption of 130 kg in 2023 compared to the global average of 541 kg, indicating substantial growth potential [1] - The market structure in regions like Nigeria, Tanzania, and Malawi is relatively stable, with high concentration among major players such as Dangote and BUA, leading to stable short-term pricing [1] - The revenue growth rates for Dangote, BUA, and Lafarge in Nigeria are projected to be 32%, 43%, and 32% respectively from 2020 to 2024, with EBITDA margins for Dangote and BUA exceeding 50% and 30% [1] Group 2: Central Asia Market Dynamics - In Central Asia, per capita cement consumption is projected to be between 0.4 to 0.5 tons in 2024, slightly below the global average of 0.55 tons, with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan experiencing strong supply-demand conditions [2] - Some regions in Central Asia are facing overcapacity, leading to a focus on exporting to neighboring countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan [2] - Capital expenditures by domestic companies in Central Asia are expected to decrease starting in 2025 [2] Group 3: Expansion Strategies - The overseas expansion strategy for domestic cement companies has shifted from primarily new construction to a combination of new builds and acquisitions since 2020, allowing for reduced local supply burdens [3] - Following a slowdown in domestic demand after 2012, leading firms began large-scale production line constructions in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, establishing early international footprints [3] - Companies like Dangote and Holcim are adjusting their strategies in response to ESG pressures, providing opportunities for Chinese firms in Africa and the Middle East [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1][11][19] Core Views - The company is a leader in overseas cement production, with a strong presence in sub-Saharan Africa, and has initiated its overseas strategy since 2020 [2][11] - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected figures of 1.143 billion, 1.422 billion, and 2.015 billion RMB respectively [19] - The report highlights the company's strategic decision to divest from domestic assets in Xinjiang to alleviate debt pressure and support overseas expansion [11][19] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 9.024 billion RMB in 2023 to 14.146 billion RMB in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 17% [4] - Gross profit is expected to increase from 2.460 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.227 billion RMB in 2027 [4] - Net profit is forecasted to recover from a significant drop in 2023 to 2.015 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [4] Market Position - The company holds the largest market share in Shaanxi province, with a production capacity of 21.7 million tons, leading the local market [21][24] - The company has established a diversified overseas presence in countries such as Mozambique, Congo, Ethiopia, and Uzbekistan, with plans for further expansion [11][66] Overseas Expansion - The company has seen rapid growth in overseas sales, reaching 403 million tons in 2024 and expected to exceed 880 million tons by 2025 [69] - The average selling price of cement in overseas markets is significantly higher than in China, contributing to higher profit margins [72] - The report emphasizes the strong demand for cement in sub-Saharan Africa, driven by population growth and economic development [45][51]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in Hong Kong's building materials and cement stocks, with China National Building Material (CNBM) reaching a new high since April 2023, increasing by 7% [1] - CNBM is expected to report a net profit of 2.95 billion yuan for the first three quarters, marking a turnaround from losses, primarily due to a decrease in sales costs for cement and ready-mixed concrete [1] - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the third quarter is traditionally a slow season for the cement industry, with cement prices expected to peak in 2025 before declining [1] Group 2 - The cement industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with only about 100 capacity replacement projects announced, adding a total of 34.969 million tons while exiting 55.82 million tons, resulting in a net reduction of 20.851 million tons [1] - The ongoing expansion of production capacity by Huaxin Cement and Western Cement is noted, with profitability in African cement operations expected to improve [1] - The article mentions that the policy effects on the cement supply-demand situation have been poor, exacerbating the existing contradictions in the market [1]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The cement industry is accelerating its overseas expansion, particularly in Africa, which is seen as a significant investment opportunity due to its rapid population growth and urbanization [3][20] - The recent performance of the construction materials sector shows a positive trend, with the CITIC construction materials index rising by 2.63% [12] - The report highlights the importance of monetary policy in supporting economic recovery, emphasizing a coordinated approach between monetary and fiscal policies [2][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.95%, while the construction materials sector rose by 2.63% [12] - Notable stock performances include Saitex New Materials (+27.0%) and Guotong Shares (+14.2%) [12] Cement Industry Expansion - Recent data shows a decline in property sales in major cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.14% [2][15] - Companies like Western Cement and Huaxin Cement are making significant moves in Africa, with Western Cement planning to sell assets in Xinjiang to support its expansion [3][20] - Huaxin Cement's new project in Zambia has successfully increased production capacity, indicating a trend of overseas investment in the cement sector [3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies such as China National Materials, Honghe Technology, Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and others, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market dynamics [20][4] - The report suggests that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials are expected to continue their growth trajectory [21]