格隆汇1月7日｜大马投资银行分析师Gan Huey Ling在报告中指出，在经历了新闻频出的2025年后，马 来西亚电力行业在2026年可能会进入一段较为平静的时期，增长催化剂有限。她预计仅有两项关键进 展，即新燃气发电厂中标名单的公布以及新一轮太阳能招标的启动，这两项预计均将在2026年初发生。 如果能够成功获得燃气项目，杨忠礼电力和马拉科夫等主要公用事业公司可能会将重点转向融资和项目 执行。她补充称，马来西亚碳税的实施可能尚需时日，因为相关细节仍待最终敲定；不过，未来的任何 税收都可能转嫁给公用事业消费者。大马投资银行对马来西亚电力行业维持"中性"评级，并在该板块中 看好杨忠礼电力国际。 ...

大马投资银行分析师Gan Huey Ling在一份报告中称，继消息众多的2025年之后，马来西亚电力行业 2026年可能会较为平静，催化剂有限。她预计，2026年初可能只会有两项关键进展，即公布新天然气发 电厂的中标者和启动新一轮太阳能招标。如果成功获得天然气项目，YTL Power和Malakoff等主要公用 事业公司可能会将重点转向融资和项目执行。她补充说，马来西亚的碳税可能需要时间来实施，因为细 节仍有待敲定，不过任何未来的税收都可能会转嫁给公用事业消费者。大马投资银行维持对马来西亚电 力行业的中性评级，并在该行业中看好YTL Power International。 ...

华通线缆 20251217 摘要 华通线缆安哥拉项目一期预计 2026 年 Q1 达产，二期随后启动，目标 2028 年 Q2 实现 36 万吨总产能。电力供应协议已覆盖大部分需求，新 增产能所需电力正与安哥拉总统商议，采用阶梯电价模式，尽早投产可 享受较低初始电价。 安哥拉项目享有 15 年所得税减免 95%的税收优惠，实际税率约为 1.25%，出口业务增值税可抵扣。预计安哥拉项目每吨盈利比国内高出 三四千元，保守估计每吨净利润 5,000 元，一期年产 10 万吨预计利润 6.5 亿元。 华通线缆利用绿色水电优势，寻求产品溢价，参考俄铝模式，理论上可 获得每吨几十至一百美元的溢价，提升价格竞争力。欧美市场对绿色能 源产品需求增加，欧盟碳税实施后，溢价有望进一步提高。 安哥拉项目二期总投入约 4.5 至 5 亿美元，资金来源包括银团贷款、中 信保业务、股权和债券融资等。公司持有安哥拉基地 100%股权，未来 不排除引入外部股东，但希望保持控股权。 Q&A 华通线缆在安哥拉的项目进展如何？ 安哥拉项目将于 12 月 27 日正式开业，并与安哥拉独立 50 周年庆典一同举行。 该项目是安哥拉迄今为止最大的工业制 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking sector in Albania, but it emphasizes the importance of understanding and managing climate-related financial risks as a foundation for future assessments [12][20]. Core Insights - The report represents the first climate transition risk stress test for the Albanian banking sector, aimed at assessing the impact of transitioning to a low-carbon economy under different climate policy scenarios [12][14]. - It identifies key climate-related risks and transmission mechanisms affecting financial institutions, focusing on how the banking sector can adapt to economic changes brought about by the introduction of carbon taxes [13][20]. - The analysis predicts a moderate negative impact on GDP by 2030 across three climate transition scenarios, with the orderly NDC scenario causing the least disruption [14][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - Climate financial risks pose significant challenges to the financial sector, including both physical risks from climate-related disasters and transition risks from moving to a low-carbon economy [22]. 2. Methodology - The report employs a four-step framework for climate transition risk stress testing, including scenario development, macroeconomic modeling, credit risk assessment, and a stress testing model [39][70]. 3. Low-Carbon Transition Scenarios - Three low-carbon transition scenarios are evaluated, with the orderly NDC scenario projected to achieve a 21% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario [75][80]. 4. Macroeconomic and Sectoral Impacts - The orderly NDC scenario is expected to lead to gradual adoption of carbon taxes, incentivizing low-carbon technologies while causing moderate inflation and slight declines in domestic consumption and exports [14][16]. 5. Impact on the Financial Sector - The banking sector's performance remains robust, with limited increases in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios during orderly transitions, but higher credit risks in sectors like industry and construction during disorderly transitions [16][20]. 6. Conclusions and Policy Implications - The findings highlight the need for enhanced regulatory guidance and alignment with international disclosure standards to effectively manage climate-related risks in the Albanian banking sector [20][36].

Core Insights - Canada's annual inflation rate dropped to 2.2% in October, influenced by falling gasoline prices, a slowdown in food price increases, and mortgage interest rates falling below 3% [1] - The cancellation of the gasoline carbon tax earlier this year has contributed to the sustained suppression of annual price increases [1] - The Bank of Canada signaled a pause in interest rate cuts last month, with stable inflation being a key reason [1] Inflation Details - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year increase in October was 2.7%, down from 2.9% in September when excluding the impact of the carbon tax cancellation [1] - Gasoline prices saw a significant decline, with the annual decrease expanding from 4.1% in September to 9.4% in October, primarily due to the carbon tax cancellation [1] - Food prices contributed to the inflation slowdown, with supermarket food prices rising by 3.4% year-on-year in October, down from 4.0% in September [1]

Core Points - Chile aims to strengthen its position as a regional leader in energy transition by setting ambitious targets at the 30th UN Climate Conference [1] Group 1 - Chile plans to reduce carbon emissions and increase afforestation between 2030 and 2035 [1] - The country targets 80% of its electricity to come from renewable sources by 2030 [1] - Chile intends to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2040 and increase carbon taxes [1]

Core Points - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's approach to international climate agreements, particularly in the shipping industry, highlighting the risks to U.S. long-term influence due to aggressive tactics used to undermine global cooperation [1][7]. Group 1: U.S. Influence and Tactics - The U.S. has been accused of using "bullying tactics" to prevent the adoption of a global shipping emissions framework, which was originally supported by the EU and other nations [1][5]. - Reports indicate that U.S. officials threatened representatives from smaller nations, warning them of potential sanctions and restrictions if they supported the emissions framework [5][8]. - The aggressive negotiation strategy employed by the Trump administration is characterized as a departure from traditional diplomatic norms, which may lead to long-term consequences for U.S. relations with other countries [7][9]. Group 2: Shipping Emissions Framework - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) aimed to establish a legally binding framework to achieve net-zero emissions in the shipping sector by 2050, but the proposal was postponed for 12 months due to significant disagreements among member states [1][4]. - The proposed framework included measures such as gradually reducing reliance on carbon-emitting fuels and implementing a carbon pricing mechanism, which some major economies, including the U.S., opposed due to concerns over increased shipping costs [4][6]. - The framework's delay raises doubts about its future viability, especially under the current U.S. administration, which is unlikely to support such climate policies [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing fiscal sustainability through active fiscal policies and structural adjustments in tax policies to support high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Management - The proposal suggests strengthening fiscal management and resource allocation, focusing on major national strategic tasks and basic livelihood financial support [1]. - It advocates for the deepening of zero-based budgeting reforms and optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures [1]. - The need for a reasonable macro tax burden level is highlighted, with a call for structural adjustments to existing tax reduction policies [1][2]. Group 2: Tax Policy Adjustments - The article outlines three key areas for tax policy adjustments: 1. Cleaning up unnecessary tax incentives and enhancing the precision of tax benefits in critical areas like technological innovation and small enterprises [2]. 2. Adjusting tax burdens in a way that minimally impacts ordinary residents while promoting green development and reducing income inequality [2]. 3. Exploring new tax sources based on economic conditions, such as digital asset taxes and carbon taxes [2]. Group 3: Government Debt Management - A long-term mechanism for government debt management aligned with high-quality development is essential, focusing on establishing hard budget constraints for local governments to mitigate debt risks [2]. - Recommendations include creating a comprehensive local government debt monitoring system and enhancing transparency in debt information [2]. - The article suggests promoting the transformation of local financing platforms and strengthening accountability for illegal financing [2].

Economic Overview - South Africa's economic development is stagnant, but the country has a friendly foreign exchange environment and stable cement demand at around 12 million tons [2] - The financial sector is well-developed, and the country has abundant mineral resources and sufficient foreign exchange reserves [2] Supply and Demand - The supply structure is acceptable, with six major cement companies; PPC holds a 35% market share, while Huaxin Cement ranks fourth with a 13% share [3] - Cement demand has remained stable over the years, with no significant increase in production capacity, and even a decrease in active capacity [3] Import Impact - South Africa's cement imports are significant, projected at 1.69 million tons in 2024, with 88% sourced from Vietnam and 76% entering through Durban [4] Profitability - The ex-factory price of Dangote cement in South Africa is around $65 per ton, with high transportation costs leading to low profitability for PPC and Dangote [5] - There is potential for profitability improvement through policy measures to restrict imports and enhance domestic transportation conditions, as well as technological advancements to reduce costs [5] Carbon Tax Considerations - The imposition of a carbon tax in South Africa necessitates monitoring of its impact on policies and profitability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is considering a global carbon tax framework for the shipping industry, which would impose penalties on ships exceeding carbon emission standards, marking a significant step towards industry-wide carbon pricing and reduction [1][3]. Summary by Sections Carbon Tax Framework - The carbon tax framework was initially voted on in April, with 63 countries supporting it, including major players like China, the EU, Japan, and India, while 16 countries, primarily oil-dependent nations like Saudi Arabia and Russia, opposed it [3]. - The framework mandates a gradual reduction of carbon emissions starting in 2028, aiming for zero emissions by 2050, with penalties for ships over 5,000 tons that exceed emission limits [3][5]. - Revenue from penalties will be allocated to the "IMO Net Zero Fund" to assist developing countries in technological innovation and infrastructure development for emission reduction [3]. U.S. Response - The U.S. response, particularly from former President Trump, reflects concerns over the potential economic impact on American shipping and oil industries, as the U.S. lacks the technology for mass production of green ships [5][6]. - Trump threatened sanctions against countries supporting the carbon tax framework, including port access restrictions and visa limitations, but these threats are seen as ineffective given the strong support for the framework among other nations [5][7]. Support for the Framework - Countries like China support the framework due to its alignment with their environmental goals and the potential to enhance their position in the global green shipping market [6]. - The EU, Japan, and India also back the framework, with various shipping associations representing a quarter of the global fleet advocating for its adoption [6][7]. Implications of the Framework - If implemented, the framework is expected to accelerate the transition from oil-based fuels to cleaner alternatives like methanol and ammonia in the shipping industry by 2027 [10]. - The framework's eventual approval seems likely, as it has already surpassed the two-thirds majority threshold required by the IMO, despite delays caused by U.S. opposition [8][10].