Core Insights - OPEC+ has announced a pause in production growth until Q1 2026, which has prompted Morgan Stanley to adjust its Brent crude oil price forecast from $57.50 to $60 per barrel, signaling a reduction in market volatility [1][2][4] - The pause in production growth is seen as a proactive measure by OPEC+ to stabilize the market, rather than a significant change in actual production levels [2][3] - Morgan Stanley believes that the combination of OPEC+'s intervention and new sanctions on Russian oil by the US and EU will support Brent oil prices in the near term [4][3] OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, consistent with previous months, but will pause growth from January to March due to seasonal demand factors [2] - The decision to pause is typical for the first quarter, which is usually a seasonally weak period for oil demand, reflecting a cautious approach by oil-producing countries [2] Market Dynamics and Price Forecast - Morgan Stanley's analysts assert that the perception of OPEC+ operating in an "autopilot" mode has been disrupted by this pause, indicating that the organization is still responsive to market conditions [3] - The firm anticipates a significant oversupply in the global oil market in 2026, particularly in the first half, but believes OPEC+'s intervention will mitigate downward price risks [3][4] - The forecast suggests that Brent oil prices could rise to $65 per barrel by the second half of 2027 as global demand begins to consume excess inventories [4] Discrepancies in Production Data - There is a notable gap between OPEC+'s production quotas and actual output, with discrepancies reported to exceed 2.5 million barrels per day, complicating the assessment of OPEC+'s effectiveness [6][9] - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that actual production growth has been minimal despite quota increases, suggesting that remaining production capacity may be limited [9][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is dominated by the supply surplus pressure brought by OPEC+ production increase. Although the announced production increase in June is in line with market expectations, the clearer production increase tendency for the future has a greater impact on market sentiment, intensifying the medium - and long - term crude oil surplus expectation. It is expected that oil prices will operate weakly after the holiday [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - From April 28 to May 7, WTI decreased from $62.05 to $58.07, a change of -$1.02; BRENT decreased from $65.86 to $61.12, a change of -$1.03; DUBAI decreased from $67.95 to $61.53, a change of -$0.46 [3] - The OMAN price decreased from $66.66 to $61.48, a change of -$0.64; the domestic gasoline price increased from 7800 to 7600, a change of 20.00 [3] 2. Daily News - Russia is considering tightening budget rules when oil prices fall; Capital Economics has lowered its end - of - year price forecast for Brent crude from $70 to $60 and the 2026 end - of - year forecast from $60 to $50 per barrel [3][4] - Kazakhstan is considering options to fulfill OPEC+ production cut obligations; the European Commission will propose to phase out all remaining Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas imports by the end of 2027 [4] - EIA has lowered its price expectations for WTI and Brent crude for this year and next, while raising this year's global crude oil demand forecast and lowering next year's [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending May 2, US crude oil exports decreased by 11.5万桶/日 to 400.6万桶/日; domestic crude oil production decreased by 9.8万桶 to 1336.7万桶/日 [4] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 203.2万桶 to 4.38 billion barrels, a decrease of 0.46%; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 58.0万桶 to 3.991 billion barrels, an increase of 0.15% [4][5] - In China, from April 24, the main refinery operating rate generally decreased, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate rebounded. Gasoline production decreased and diesel production increased. Gasoline and diesel prices dropped significantly, and middle and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.06% and diesel inventories decreased by 0.69% [5] 4. Weekly View - Saudi Arabia is reluctant to further cut supply to support the oil market and may increase production and expand market share; OPEC+ announced an increase of 41.4万桶/日 in June, and the actual increase in June may be 35.9万桶/日 considering compensation cuts [6] - OPEC+ is preparing to accelerate oil production increase before October and may gradually cancel the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels/日 before November if the production cut situation of member countries does not improve [6]