Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East has significantly impacted the crude oil market, with the interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz being the main factor. The duration of the strait's interruption is the key to determining the future risk premium level of oil prices [74]. - If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the estimated export loss in the Middle East will be 800 - 900 million barrels per day, accounting for about 8% of global total consumption. The major oil - producing countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz for transportation will face varying degrees of production cuts, and OPEC+'s remaining theoretical idle production capacity of about 3 million barrels per day cannot be effectively released [23][36]. - The release of the IEA's strategic petroleum reserve can provide short - term supply buffering, but the inventory distribution is uneven, and different markets have different capabilities to withstand the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz [42]. - In the long - term, the United States has the greatest potential for supply growth, while South America's supply growth potential in 2026 is difficult to increase significantly [62][70]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Middle East Oil Export and Strait of Hormuz Impact - The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 27% of global crude oil and petroleum product exports. In 2025, the daily transportation volume of crude oil and petroleum products through the strait reached 1,491 million barrels and 332 million barrels respectively. The major Middle East oil - producing countries are highly dependent on the strait for oil exports [5][7]. - 83% of the crude oil and petroleum products exported through the Strait of Hormuz flow to Asia. Crude oil exports are concentrated in Asia (86%), while petroleum product exports are relatively more dispersed, with Asia accounting for 61%, and Europe and Africa each accounting for 16% [8][12]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously closed, the estimated export loss in the Middle East will be 800 - 900 million barrels per day, accounting for about 8% of global total consumption. In the four weeks before the conflict, the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was at a low level. In the week of March 29, the crude oil transportation volume through the strait was about 7% of the normal level [23]. Bypass Routes for Oil Export - Some countries can use over - land pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for partial exports. Saudi Arabia's "East - West Oil Pipeline" has a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day after expansion, and the estimated stable loading capacity of Yanbu Port is 4.3 - 4.5 million barrels per day, with a maximum export capacity of 5 - 5.5 million barrels per day. However, the south - bound route of Yanbu Port passes through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, and some oil tankers may face the risk of attack by the Houthi armed forces [15]. - The ADCOP pipeline in the UAE has an estimated capacity of 1.5 - 1.8 million barrels per day. Since 2024, the increase in the pipeline's utilization rate has led to an increase in the crude oil export volume of Fujairah Port to about 1.15 million barrels per day, accounting for about 33% of the UAE's total exports. However, the high utilization rate of the pipeline limits its remaining capacity to divert the transportation volume of the Strait of Hormuz, and Fujairah Port has been reported to have been attacked multiple times since the conflict [15]. - Iraq used to export about 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day through the Ceyhan Port in Turkey, which was once interrupted. Since last October, the export volume has recovered to 150,000 - 200,000 barrels per day. Recently, due to Iraq's production cuts, the loading at the Botas Ceyhan terminal has also been affected [15]. Iran's Oil Export Situation - 94% of Iran's crude oil exports come from Kharg Island. Although the military facilities on the island were attacked by the United States, the export terminal was not damaged, and the loading volume has remained at a normal level since the conflict. Iran's crude oil export volume is expected to remain stable at about 1.6 million barrels per day, and the total amount of Iranian crude oil at sea is 180 million barrels, with the floating storage inventory of those floating for more than 15 days dropping to about 24 million barrels [18]. Impact on Oil Production and Supply - The major oil - producing countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz for transportation will face varying degrees of production cuts due to the depletion of on - land storage capacity. Iraq and Kuwait are the most affected due to the lack of bypass capabilities, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also announced different degrees of production restrictions [36]. - The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz will also result in about 3 million barrels per day of OPEC+'s remaining theoretical idle production capacity being unable to be effectively released to the market, further reducing the supply buffer [36]. Global Oil Inventory and Product Inventory - After the global seaborne crude oil in - transit volume decreases, the consumption of on - land inventory will accelerate. As of the end of March, the total global on - land inventory (excluding countries along the Persian Gulf) was about 2.8 billion barrels, and the overall level of global on - land crude oil inventory is not high [42]. - The gasoline inventory in Europe and the United States is slightly higher than the five - year average, while the diesel inventory level is relatively low. The price of middle distillates has risen more sharply after the conflict, and Europe faces a greater risk of supply shortage due to its relatively high dependence on aviation kerosene and diesel from the Middle East [45]. IEA's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release - As of the end of December 2025, the IEA's government inventory was 1.245 billion barrels, and the industry inventory was 2.826 billion barrels. On March 11, the IEA announced the largest - ever release of strategic petroleum reserves, about 400 million barrels [51]. - The United States plans to release 172 million barrels of crude oil SPR in the form of "swap" within 120 days (1.435 million barrels per day) and requires enterprises to replenish the reserves in full by March 2028. Europe plans to release 34.4 million barrels of crude oil and 73.1 million barrels of petroleum products, and Asia - Pacific countries plan to release 65.2 million barrels of crude oil and 43.4 million barrels of petroleum products [51]. Asian Market and Sanction Oil - Asian countries generally have a high degree of dependence on crude oil imports from the Persian Gulf, and the seaborne import proportion of major consumers is over 40%. In the case of continuous supply interruption in the Middle East, the problem of supply mismatch in the market segmented by sanctioned oil may become more prominent [56]. - Even if the United States temporarily relaxes sanctions, the settlement problem of sanctioned oil, especially Iranian crude oil, may still limit buyers' purchases. The threat of drone attacks on Russian ports has also increased, and attention should be paid to whether it will affect Russia's export volume [61]. Long - term Supply Growth Potential - In the long - term, the United States has the greatest potential for supply growth. If the long - term oil price center moves up, the growth rate of U.S. production may accelerate. The average oil price required for profitable drilling in the Permian region is 67 US dollars per barrel [67]. - South America's supply growth potential in 2026 is difficult to increase significantly. Brazil's annual crude oil production is expected to rise to 4.2 million barrels per day, with an increase of about 300,000 barrels per day [70]. Oil Price Outlook - The passage of the Strait of Hormuz will be the decisive factor in determining the future risk premium level of oil prices. The interruption of the strait has had a substantial impact on the market supply, and the duration of the interruption is the key to testing energy security [74]. - In the short - term, the oil price may remain highly volatile as the expectations of "progress in negotiations" and "escalation of military operations" alternate. If the conflict ends quickly, the risk premium will significantly decline [74]. - In the long - term, the restoration of supply in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East is expected to be gradual, and the oil price fluctuation range is expected to fall to 80 - 100 US dollars per barrel, with the center higher than the pre - conflict level [74].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have surged to seven-month highs due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran ahead of upcoming nuclear talks, with US crude futures reaching $67.28 per barrel and Brent crude at $72.50 per barrel [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Market Reactions - Traders are pricing in a risk premium for oil due to potential disruptions in global supplies from military conflicts [2]. - Current oil prices are driven more by anticipation of conflict rather than actual supply losses [2]. Group 2: Nuclear Talks and Military Posturing - The US and Iran are scheduled for a third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva, indicating a potential willingness from Iran to negotiate its nuclear program [3]. - Prior to the talks, the US has increased its military presence in the Middle East, including the deployment of aircraft carriers and partial evacuation of its embassy in Beirut due to security concerns [4].

Core Viewpoint - KeyBanc analysts warn that the U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Maduro could trigger larger geopolitical turmoil and significantly increase the risk premium on global oil prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The analysts describe the U.S. action as akin to "stirring a hornet's nest," indicating potential for widespread instability in the region [1] - The repercussions of this event may extend to neighboring countries such as Mexico and Colombia [1] Group 2: Oil Price Implications - The report emphasizes that the current WTI and Brent crude oil prices have not yet reflected this geopolitical shock [1] - Analysts suggest that the situation in Venezuela could push multiple fragile geopolitical situations towards violent conflict, necessitating a higher risk premium in oil prices [1] Group 3: Broader Regional Effects - The U.S. hardline stance may provoke a more aggressive response from Russia regarding the Ukraine situation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The view scores for PX, PTA, and PR are all 0 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On November 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.05 per barrel, up 0.11% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $64.89 per barrel, down 0.28% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $582.38 per ton, up 0.32%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $685 per ton, up 0.96% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $819 per ton, down 0.16%; the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4596 yuan per ton, up 0.22% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE TA main contract was 4606 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the closing price of CZCE TA near - month contract was 4542 yuan per ton, up 0.13% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE TA near - month contract was 4552 yuan per ton, up 0.26%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4532 yuan per ton, up 0.44% [1] - The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4535 yuan per ton, up 0.55%; the CCFEI price index of PTA outer market was $616 per ton, up 0.65% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6640 yuan per ton, up 0.33%; the settlement price of CZCE PX main contract was 6662 yuan per ton, up 0.85% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX near - month contract was 6678 yuan per ton, up 0.85%; the settlement price of CZCE PX near - month contract was 6690 yuan per ton, up 1.55% [1] - The domestic spot price of PX was 6480 yuan per ton, down 0.11%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $821 per ton, unchanged [1] - The spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $796 per ton, unchanged; the PXN spread was $236.63 per ton, down 1.34% [1] - The PX - MX spread was $134 per ton, down 5.52%; the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5674 yuan per ton, up 0.04% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE PR main contract was 5686 yuan per ton, up 0.39%; the closing price of CZCE PR near - month contract was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.63% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE PR near - month contract was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.63%; the market price of polyester bottle chips in East China was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.35% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle chips in South China was 5770 yuan per ton, up 0.35%; the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8500 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [1][2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6825 yuan per ton, up 0.74%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6950 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6700 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6345 yuan per ton, down 0.16% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5600 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.35% [2] Operating Conditions - On November 3, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 79.66%, unchanged [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 89.56%, up 0.22%; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle chip factories was 75.63%, up 2.32% [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester filament was 53.04%, up 9.07% [1] - The sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48.41%, down 1.11%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 68.12%, up 22.49% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (designed capacity) PTA device No. 4 of Dushan Energy was tested on October 25, and after the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News - The market remained cautious about the US attack on Venezuela, and oil prices maintained a certain risk premium. However, OPEC+ decided to increase production in December, which put pressure on oil prices. On November 3, the PX CFR China price was $819 per ton, and the international oil price fluctuated within a range, resulting in limited cost momentum. An expanded device in the Northeast restarted and was in stable production, and the overall demand performance was good [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market was 5680 - 5820 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The positive news was less than expected, the PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated weakly in a narrow range, the overall market atmosphere was weak, and the downstream purchasing willingness was low [2] Long - Short Logic - PX followed the cost and slightly increased. The PX2601 contract closed at 6640 yuan per ton (up 0.51%), with an intraday trading volume of 174,200 lots. Some PX factories' reforming devices were under maintenance or about to be maintained, but with the supplement of toluene and xylene, the market PX supply remained stable. Overseas devices also operated stably, and there were no unexpected new changes. The call for anti - involution in the industry increased, but in the short term, without actual actions, it had limited impact on PX supply and demand. The PX export volume from South Korea to China in October increased compared with September, and the PX profitability fluctuated and remained stable in the short term, and the industry conference had no substantial impact [2] - The production reduction expectation of PTA was not fulfilled. The TA2601 contract closed at 4596 yuan per ton (up 0.31%), with an intraday trading volume of 638,900 lots. The crude oil market fluctuated strongly, providing cost support for PTA, and the PTA market increased slightly. The spot supply was sufficient, and there were no unexpected device overhauls, and the spot basis slightly decreased. A new 2.7 - million - ton PTA device in East China was tested and produced. It was expected that enterprises would start the new device and shut down the old one later. The production reduction expectation on the supply side failed, and it might be difficult to coordinate a new production reduction plan due to the large amount of shutdown capacity of some major suppliers before. Although domestic demand was good and foreign trade orders improved recently, the overall downstream demand was still weak. Terminal customers were waiting and seeing or required a discount on the polyester product price, and the actual trading volume was small, indicating that the market had poor confidence in the subsequent market. Overall, the supply side could not relieve the pressure only through overhauls or shutdowns [2] - PR followed the cost. The PR2601 contract closed at 5674 yuan per ton (up 0.18%), with an intraday trading volume of 31,900 lots. Some devices on the supply side increased their loads, and the overall market supply was loose. The downstream terminal purchasing sentiment was cautious, and the market demand was weak [2] Trading Strategy - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices rose significantly, reaching the largest single - day increase in many years on Friday with an enlarged intraday amplitude. Geopolitical risks soared due to the Israel - Iran conflict, and the risk of an upward oil price trend remains high as Israel has not proposed conditions to end the attacks and Iran has joined the counter - attack. The threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz is the biggest factor affecting crude oil. Although the actual implementation is difficult, Israel started attacking energy facilities over the weekend. The fundamentals support for prices is weaker than during the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the absolute price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From June 9th to 13th, WTI rose by 4.94 to 72.98, BRENT rose by 4.87 to 74.23, and DUBAI rose by 2.52 to 69.93. SC increased by 34.20 to 529.90, and OMAN rose by 3.99 to 72.08. The prices of domestic gasoline increased by 400.00 to 8180, and the difference between domestic gasoline and BRENT increased by 111.00 [3]. 2. Daily News - Germany, France, and the UK are ready to talk with Iran about its nuclear program. Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked Israel. Trump warned Iran and said the US could facilitate an agreement between Iran and Israel. Iran will no longer notify the IAEA in advance about its nuclear activities. Israel's actions against Iran are expected to last for weeks with US acquiescence. The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict may lead to a qualitative change in the Middle East situation if the US intervenes militarily [3][4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 6th, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3644000 barrels to 432 million barrels, a 0.84% decline. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 237000 barrels to 4021 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. US domestic crude oil production increased by 2000 barrels per day to 1342800 barrels per day. The number of oil drilling rigs decreased by 3 to 439 on June 13th, and the number of fracturing wells decreased by 4 to 182. The EIA gasoline inventory in the US for the week ending June 6th increased by 1504000 barrels. This week, the operating rate of major Chinese refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories increased this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [4][5]. 4. Weekly Views - The geopolitical risk has led to a significant increase in oil prices. The core issue is that Israel has deviated from the negotiation framework and has not proposed conditions to end the attacks. The threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz poses a major risk to oil prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are stable, US commercial inventories continue to decline, and refined oil inventories increase. The profits of global refineries have declined this week, and the operating rate of major Chinese refineries has increased significantly. The monthly spreads of the three - market crude oil continue to soar, maintaining the WTI>Brent>Dubai pattern. The fundamentals support for prices is weaker than during the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the absolute price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6].