2025年，全球关税摩擦愈演愈烈，美联储年内三度降息累计75个基点，人工智能狂潮席卷全球，地缘紧 张局势加剧，金融市场波动剧烈。 美国股市三大股指均实现两位数的涨幅，连续第三年上涨；美元去年下跌逾9%，录得2017年以来最大年 跌幅；美国10年期收益率自2020年以来首次出现年度下跌，而两年期收益率则有望创下2020年以来的最 大年度跌幅。 大宗商品方面，黄金创下46年来最大年度涨幅，创下有史以来最强劲的年度表现，白银和铂金年度表现 更是创下纪录；LME期铜创下16年来最大年度涨幅，年底再创纪录新高；CBOT大豆录得三年来首个年度 涨幅，由于中国重返美国市场；油价去年大跌近20%，创2020年以来最大年度跌幅。追踪全球大宗商品走 势的CRB指数去年上涨0.69%。 **贵金属成为最大赢家** **美国股市录得两位数涨幅** 美国股市三大股指2025年录得强劲年度涨幅，标普500指数、道琼斯工业指数和纳斯达克指数今年均实现 两位数的涨幅。这标志着三大股指连续第三年上涨，上一次出现这种情况是在2019-2021年。这一年的过 山车式行情主要由特朗普总统的关税不确定性以及围绕人工智能（AI）重点股票的亢奋情绪主导。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping below $4420 per ounce on December 29, with a daily decline of 2.92%, and further falling to $4330 per ounce, expanding the daily loss to 4.93% [1][6] - On December 30, New York gold initially broke above $4360 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.38%, but later fell below $4340 per ounce, resulting in a daily decline of 0.09% [1][6] - Spot gold also showed large fluctuations, falling below $4310 per ounce on December 29, with a daily drop of 5.03%, and then rising above $4340 per ounce on December 30, with a daily increase of 0.21% [1][6] - New York silver similarly experienced a volatile market, dropping below $71 per ounce on December 29, with a daily decline of 8.25%, and rebounding above $72 per ounce on December 30, with a daily increase of 2.20% [1][7] - Spot silver fell below $71 per ounce on December 29, with a daily drop of 10.31% [1][7] - Palladium futures fell below $1700 per ounce on December 29, with a significant drop of 15.98% [2][7] Group 2: Base Metals Futures - Base metals futures faced widespread pressure, with copper futures dropping 4% on December 29, now priced at 96420.00 yuan [3][8] - Tin futures showed extreme volatility, initially dropping 5% (to 325220.00 yuan), then 6% (to 321750.00 yuan), and ultimately closing down 7% at 318370.00 yuan [3][8] Group 3: Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. crude oil futures closed at $58.08 per barrel on December 29, an increase of $1.34, or 2.36% [4][9] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced a delay in the release of the weekly oil status report, with notifications to be provided at least one hour in advance [4][9] - For the week ending December 19, EIA reported a decrease in natural gas inventories by 1660 billion cubic feet, slightly above the expected decrease of 1680 billion cubic feet [4][9] Group 4: Macro and Market Impact - The volatility in precious metals and metal futures may be linked to geopolitical factors and market sentiment [5][10] - U.S. Congressman Green criticized both parties for their roles in the growth of national debt and the depreciation of the dollar, while Trump mentioned considering legal action against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, increasing policy uncertainty and market volatility [5][10] - In the U.S. stock market, the Dow opened down 0.2% on December 29, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the Nasdaq down 0.8%, while silver mining stocks generally declined, with the Invesco Silver Trust down 7.3% [5][10] - On December 30, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow down 0.51%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, and S&P down 0.35% [5][10]

12月4日，黄金消息面解析：周四（北京时间12月4日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4206.67美元/盎司附 近，金价周三持稳，白银则再创历史新高至58.95美元/盎司，受美国疲软的民间就业数据提振市场降息 预期；市场焦点在于，最新公布的ADP就业报告显示美国11月私营部门就业岗位意外减少，这增强了市 场对美联储可能在下周政策会议上降息的预期。根据芝商所FedWatch工具，交易员目前押注下周降息 的概率接近90%。投资者正等待周五将公布的、美联储偏好的关键通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE） 数据，以获取更多政策线索。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 12月4日，黄金消息面解析：周四（北京时间12月4日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4206.67美元/盎司附 近，金价周三持稳，白银则再创历史新高至58.95美元/盎司，受美国疲软的民间就业数据提振市场降息 预期；市场焦点在于，最新公布的ADP就业报告显示美国11月私营部门就业岗位意外减少，这增强了市 场对美联储可能在下周政策会议上降息的预期。根据芝商所FedWatch工具，交易员目前押注下周降息 的概率接近90%。投资者正等待周五将公布的、美联储偏好的关键通胀指标——个人消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in international oil prices due to the potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the resulting oversupply in the oil market, with predictions of further price drops in the coming years [3][4][11]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have been declining, with Brent crude futures around $62 per barrel and U.S. crude futures at approximately $58 per barrel as of November 25 [3]. - The market is experiencing a structural oversupply, shifting from a daily supply shortage of 400,000 barrels to a surplus of 500,000 barrels [8][12]. - Morgan Stanley warns that without intervention, Brent crude could fall to $30-40 per barrel by 2027 due to oversupply [3][11]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The U.S. has proposed a 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led to cautious investor sentiment regarding peace prospects [5]. - If a peace agreement is reached, it could reduce attacks on energy facilities in Ukraine and gradually restore Russian oil supplies [5][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC's November report indicates a forecasted slight oversupply in the oil market by 2026, contrasting previous predictions of prolonged shortages [6][8]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for U.S. oil production, predicting record output this year and continued growth through 2026 [6][8]. - The EIA projects that global oil and liquid fuel supply will reach 106 million barrels per day by 2025, while consumption will be 104.1 million barrels per day, indicating a supply surplus [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain under pressure, with potential for a rebound in the second quarter of 2026 as supply growth slows and inventory accumulation eases [12]. - The article highlights the challenges OPEC+ faces in coordinating production cuts amid internal disagreements and external pressures from U.S. shale oil production [12]. - The anticipated demand from emerging sectors like artificial intelligence may provide some support for the oil market, requiring significant investment in energy resources [9].

Group 1 - Recent geopolitical developments, particularly the renewed hope for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, have led to a significant decline in international oil prices, with Brent crude trading around $62 per barrel and U.S. crude around $58 per barrel [1][2] - The oil market is facing a structural oversupply, with OPEC predicting a slight oversupply in the oil market next year, contrasting previous forecasts that indicated a prolonged supply deficit [3][4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for U.S. oil production, indicating that global oil inventories will continue to rise, putting further pressure on oil prices [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts express a pessimistic outlook for future oil prices, with Morgan Stanley predicting that Brent crude could fall below $60 per barrel in 2026 and potentially drop to the low $30s by the end of 2027 due to oversupply [5][6] - OPEC+ faces internal challenges in coordinating production cuts, as some member countries have exceeded their production quotas, leading to tensions within the organization [5][6] - The U.S. shale oil industry is showing resilience due to technological advancements, which poses a challenge to OPEC+ as competition for market share intensifies [6]

Group 1 - The three major indices in Hong Kong opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.53%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.5%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.82% [1] - Major technology stocks experienced declines, with JD.com down 2.57%, Kuaishou down 2%, Alibaba down 1.85%, Tencent down over 1%, and Baidu and Meituan down 0.79% [1] - OPEC revised its oil market outlook to a surplus, leading to a drop in US crude oil futures by approximately 4.2%, causing a pullback in oil stocks, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation down 2.35% [1] Group 2 - Gold prices remained stable ahead of a potential end to the US government shutdown, resulting in a strong performance from gold stocks, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Lingbao Gold Mining both rising nearly 3% [1] - Other sectors such as automotive and gaming stocks also saw declines, reflecting a broader market trend [1]

Core Insights - U.S. crude futures have eased in early trading on Friday, following a surge from the previous day, but are still on track for a weekly gain due to ongoing supply concerns [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The easing of U.S. crude futures indicates a correction after a significant price increase [1] - Despite the recent decline, the market is positioned for a weekly gain, reflecting underlying strength [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - Fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies have heightened supply concerns in the market [1] - The sanctions are a direct response to the ongoing war in Ukraine, impacting global oil supply dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Allwinner Technology expects a net profit growth of 72.2% to 92.06% year-on-year for the first three quarters [1] - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit increase of 272.54% to 287.34% for the first three quarters [1] - Semiconductor companies like Cambrian and ASML are set to release their earnings reports [1] Group 2 - Qualcomm is under investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for alleged antitrust violations [1] - China is pushing for the establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. in Shanghai [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is conducting commercial trials for satellite IoT services to enhance satellite communication market supply [1] Group 3 - The number of new A-share accounts in September reached 2.9372 million, a year-on-year increase of 60.73% [1] - SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor have seen significant reductions in their margin calculation rates to 70% and 50% respectively [1] - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel have raised rare earth prices, marking the highest month-on-month increase in two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices recording their largest single-day drops since April 10, driven by a provocative statement from former President Trump [1][3]. Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 3.56%, closing at 22,204.43 points, while the S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.71%, ending at 6,552.51 points, marking their largest single-day declines since April 10 [3][4]. - For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased by 2.43%, the largest weekly drop since June, and the Nasdaq Index fell by 2.53%, the largest weekly decline since April [3][4]. Major Stock Movements - Major technology stocks saw significant declines, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index dropping by 3.65%. Notable individual stock performances included: - Tesla down over 5% - Amazon down over 5% - Nvidia down nearly 5% - Apple and Facebook down over 3% - Microsoft down over 2% - Google down nearly 2% [11][12]. Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks also faced substantial losses, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 6.1%. Key declines included: - Alibaba down 8.45% - Bilibili down over 9% - Baidu and Xpeng down over 8% - JD.com down over 6% [13][14]. Commodity Market - International oil prices saw a notable decline, with U.S. crude futures dropping by 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, and Brent crude futures falling by nearly 3.82% to $62.73 per barrel. Gold prices, however, increased by over 1% [16][15].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of spot gold has reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, with a peak at $4036.98 [1] - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy is a significant driver behind the surge in gold prices, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this month and another in December [1] - Traders are increasingly optimistic about gold reaching the $5000 mark, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current strategy for trading gold focuses on identifying entry points rather than predicting price peaks, maintaining a bullish outlook [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3983 and $3975, while resistance is noted at $4060-4070 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - U.S. crude oil prices are rebounding, supported by the American Petroleum Institute's inventory report, which showed a significant increase in crude oil stocks [4] - The report indicates a mismatch in supply and demand, with strong consumption of gasoline and distillates, providing support for oil prices [4] - The oil market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by upcoming EIA data and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term trend for oil prices is downward, with current trading showing a lack of strength in bullish movements [5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels at $63.5-64.5 and support at $61.0-60.0 [5]