来源：证券时报 继有色之后，油气板块延续大宗商品行情，成为最近市场的关注热点。 开年以来，在全球宏观周期转向、地缘风险溢价等因素共同作用下，油气板块持续走强，通源石油大涨 173.01%，洲际油气、招商轮船、中远海能、杰瑞股份等众多个股上涨超50%，中证油气资源指数整体 上涨33.07%，更有超80亿资金通过ETF渠道涌入，成为资金青睐的一大景气方向。 然而，面对种类繁多、差异较大的油气基金，如何避开高溢价的"陷阱"，选择与自己投资逻辑匹配的工 具，成为投资者面临的实际挑战。 超80亿资金借道基金抢筹 2月27日，油气板块再度大涨，和顺石油涨停，杰瑞股份、胜通能源等个股上涨超5%，多只油气ETF上 涨超2%。 拉长时间来看，全球油气板块集体共振，ICE布油从去年末的58.72美元/桶涨至突破70美元/桶，美股的 道琼斯美国石油开发与生产指数年内上涨18.43%，A股的中证油气资源指数上涨33.07%，通源石油、潜 能恒信等个股股价翻倍。 在行情走强的同时，大量资金借道基金抢筹，布局油气板块。wind数据显示，开年以来，超80亿元资金 净流入油气ETF，其中国泰石油ETF、鹏华石油ETF分别获得了29.91亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector has shown strong performance, with multiple oil ETFs leading the market on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, reflecting a significant increase in investor interest and market activity [1][4][10]. ETF Performance Summary - On February 24, a total of 919 ETFs rose, with the highest increase reaching 9.73%. The leading oil ETFs included: - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF (513350) increased by 9.73%, with a trading volume of 1.117 billion and a turnover rate of 152.76% [2][8]. - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF by Harvest Fund (159518) rose by 9.66%, with a trading volume of 1.546 billion and a turnover rate of 99.88% [2][8]. - Other notable increases included the Silverhua Oil & Gas ETF (563150) at 9.53% and the Bosera Oil & Gas ETF (561760) at 8.42% [6][7]. Market Trends - The oil and gas sector's strong performance is attributed to geopolitical risks and a tight supply-demand situation, leading to a significant rise in related stock prices and indices [10]. - The market is currently driven by geopolitical factors rather than supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of high volatility in oil prices in the near term [10]. ETF Index Tracking - There are four main oil and gas indices tracked by ETFs in the domestic market: - CSI Oil and Gas Resource Index (931248) - CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index (H30198) - National Oil and Gas Index (399439) - S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Select Industry Index (SPSIOP) [5][17]. - The ETFs tracking these indices have shown similar performance, with the same fee structure and relatively close year-to-date returns [19]. Investor Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious as the S&P Oil & Gas ETF has issued a premium risk warning, indicating that its market price is significantly higher than its indicative net asset value (IOPV), which could lead to potential losses if investments are made blindly [10].

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector in the A-share market is experiencing upward momentum, with the oil and gas ETF Huatai Fu (159309) showing a nearly 1% increase and achieving a four-day winning streak [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The oil and gas ETF Huatai Fu (159309) has seen significant trading activity, with a transaction volume of 44 million yuan [1]. - Major component stocks of the oil and gas ETF have mostly risen, with notable performances including Haiyou Engineering hitting the daily limit, and Intercontinental Oil and Gas rising over 2% [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation in Iran remains unstable, with the U.S. expressing a desire to reach an agreement with Iran while also issuing warnings to its citizens [4]. - Ongoing tensions in Ukraine, including recent attacks on energy facilities, contribute to the uncertainty in the oil market [4][5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for oil prices is anchored in fundamental factors, with expectations of a continued oversupply due to OPEC+ production increases and developments in American oil fields [5]. - Domestic oil companies are diversifying their operations and reducing reliance on foreign energy sources, which may enhance their resilience against international oil price fluctuations [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The oil and gas ETF Huatai Fu (159309) focuses on the oil and gas industry chain, providing exposure to key sectors such as exploration, equipment, refining, and transportation [6]. - The ETF includes a concentrated selection of leading oil and gas companies, ensuring high purity and quality in its holdings [6]. Group 5: Index Performance - The China Securities Oil and Gas Resource Index has shown strong returns over various periods, with a six-month return of 27.92%, a one-year return of 29.85%, and a three-year return of 50.20% [7].

巴克莱认为，到2028–2030年，非OPEC原油供给的年均新增，可能接近于零。当需求还在、备用产能 却在消失，油价只能向上寻找平衡。 2月2日，黄金白银大跌拖累大宗商品价格，国际油价回落，油气股多数调整。截至10:25，油气ETF汇 添富（159309）跌3.61%，成交额超6200万，盘中逆市再获1.14亿净申购，此前已经连续10日"吸金"合 超4.2亿元。 | | 油气ETF汇添富 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | द्रे 159309 | | | | * 0 + | | マキ | 16.13% 120日 | 34.57% | | 5日 | -0.22% 250日 | 39.19% | | 20日 | 16.43% 52周高 | 1.46 | | 60日 | 21.18% 52周低 | 0.81 | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 应日 | | 筆数 | 3 | 10 | | 金额 | O | O | | 份额 | 9500万 | 1000万 | | 申赎清单 | | | | 最小申赎单位份额 | | 1,000,000 | | 现金替代比例上限 | | 50% | | ...

Group 1 - The oil and gas investment heat is rapidly rising due to multiple favorable factors in the market, including geopolitical tensions and extreme weather in the U.S. that restrict production capacity, alongside OPEC+'s decision to maintain current supply restrictions [1][5][6] - Demand-side factors include the gradual construction of reserve inventories globally and the expected boost in refined oil consumption due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America anticipated to improve [1][6] - The U.S. dollar index recently hit a nearly four-year low, further supporting the rise in oil prices denominated in dollars, as historical trends show an inverse relationship between oil prices and the dollar index [1][6] Group 2 - Huatai Securities indicates that geopolitical premiums have led to a rebound in oil prices during the off-season, with expectations for oil prices to rise in the second to third quarters of 2026 due to demand recovery and global reserve accumulation [2][7] - The Huatai Baichuan oil and gas ETF tracks the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index, which includes 60 fundamentally strong A-share oil and gas companies across various sectors, providing investors with a convenient tool for exposure to the overall A-share oil and gas sector [2][8] - The Huatai Baichuan fund is one of the first ETF managers in China, with a strong presence in broad-based and dividend-themed indices, recently announcing new trading names for five products in its "Dividend Family" series [2][8]

Group 1 - The oil and gas investment heat is rapidly rising due to multiple favorable factors in the market, including geopolitical tensions and extreme weather in the US affecting supply capacity, alongside OPEC+'s decision to maintain supply restrictions [1] - Demand-side factors include the gradual construction of reserve inventories globally and the expected boost in refined oil consumption due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America anticipated to rise [1] - The US dollar index has reached a near four-year low, further supporting the rise in oil prices denominated in dollars, as historical trends show an inverse relationship between oil prices and the dollar index [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities indicates that geopolitical premiums have led to a rebound in oil prices during the off-season, with expectations for oil prices to rise in Q2 to Q3 of 2026 due to demand recovery and global reserve accumulation [1] - The Huatai Baichuan Oil and Gas ETF tracks the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index, which includes 60 fundamentally strong A-share oil and gas companies, providing investors with a convenient tool to access the overall opportunities in the A-share oil and gas sector [1]

1月29日，油气板块早盘高开，油气ETF汇添富（159309）一度涨超5%创上市以来新高；该基金备受资 金青睐，近5日资金净流入超2亿，截至发稿盘中获净申购5300万份，估算资金净流入高达7500万元。 地缘政治风险持续发酵，国际油价升至四个月新高。WTI3月原油期货收于每桶63.21美元，创去年9月 底以来最高，涨幅为1.31%；布伦特3月原油期货收于每桶68.40美元，涨幅为1.23%。 地缘震荡，资源为王！以自身发展确定性应对外部不确定性，油气板块长期配置价值突出。油气ETF汇 添富（159309）聚焦油气产业链上下游，一键布局国家重要支柱产业！油气ETF汇添富（159309）囊括 资源、大宗商品等多条投资主线，是最纯的油气指数，前十大成分股全是油气板块，不含化工和公用事 业板块，高纯度导致高锐度高弹性！ 相关产品： 油气ETF汇添富（159309）联接A 023144 联接C 023145 华泰证券指出，地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹，随着需求回升及全球性储备性累库，2026年二季度 至三季度油价有望见底上探，叠加美联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气上行，上调 2026年布伦特均价。 原油 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects an increase in oil and gas investments in Africa, with oil production expected to remain stable at 7% to 8% of global output by 2035 [1] - Emerging exporting countries like Uganda and Senegal are expected to start production, while Namibia's output is also set to increase [1] - Natural gas production in Algeria and Egypt is currently stable, but Mozambique's LNG project is anticipated to double the country's gas output, contributing to over 5% of global natural gas production by 2035 [1] - Global natural gas demand is expected to continue growing, with increased liquefaction capacity anticipated in the Middle East and Africa by 2030 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has shifted its stance, now indicating that new oil and gas resources must be developed to maintain supply stability due to the accelerated decline in existing oil field production [1] Group 1: Oil and Gas Supply - The IEA's report states that to maintain current production levels, over 45 million barrels of oil and approximately 2 trillion cubic meters of natural gas must be supplied daily from new conventional oil fields by 2050 [1] - Despite several projects being expedited or approved, there remains a significant supply gap that new conventional projects need to fill [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - Nearly 90% of upstream oil and gas investments are currently directed towards compensating for the declining production of existing oil fields [1] - The IEA director, Birol, acknowledges that insufficient investment poses a substantial threat to energy supply, leading to an annual loss in global market supply equivalent to the total production of Brazil and Norway combined [1] - The oil and gas industry must accelerate investments to maintain the current balance in the market [1]

Group 1 - fuboTV Inc. (NYSE: FUBO) shares increased by approximately 5% following the announcement of its second-quarter financial results [1] - The financial results were disclosed before the market opened on August 8th [1] Group 2 - Crude Value Insights provides an investment service focused on oil and natural gas, emphasizing cash flow and companies with growth potential [1] - The service includes a model account with over 50 stocks, detailed cash flow analyses of exploration and production firms, and live sector discussions [2]