Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the USDA report is generally bearish, but domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and aquaculture season boosts demand. However, soybean meal substitution and potential increase in domestic imported soybean supply suppress the market. Today, rapeseed meal saw increased positions and price decline, so short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is up, which exerts pressure on prices. Domestically, terminal consumption boost is limited, and the supply - demand is loose. But low oil mill operating rates and fewer near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure. Affected by the decline of soybean and palm oil, rapeseed oil's upward trend has slowed [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil's active contract closed at 9999 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; rapeseed meal's active contract closed at 2460 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan. ICE rapeseed's active contract closed at 640.5 Canadian dollars/ton, up 7.7 Canadian dollars; rapeseed's active contract closed at 5264 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil's 1 - 5 spread was 466 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; rapeseed meal's 1 - 5 spread was 99 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil's main contract positions were 336743 lots, up 3703 lots; rapeseed meal's were 399317 lots, up 22735 lots [2]. - Top 20 futures positions: Rapeseed oil's net long positions were 22886 lots, down 3903 lots; rapeseed meal's were - 41680 lots, down 27612 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil had 8202 warehouse receipts, unchanged; rapeseed meal had 10104, down 110 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10060 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. Rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil's average price was 10125 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. Imported rapeseed's import cost was 7996.89 yuan/ton, up 97.04 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil's main contract basis was 7 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; rapeseed meal's was 110 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - Substitute product prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1410 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil was 660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Global production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import volume: Total rapeseed import volume for the month was 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import volume for the month was 15 tons, up 4 tons; rapeseed meal import volume for the month was 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 10 tons, unchanged; imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 12.79%, down 0.27% [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed's on - disk pressing profit was 866 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 8.65 tons, down 1.05 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 tons, down 0.05 tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 52.12 tons, down 1.08 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 30 tons, down 1.51 tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 4.1 tons, down 0.45 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 20 tons, down 1.3 tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil's weekly提货量 was 4.33 tons, up 1.3 tons; rapeseed meal's was 3.57 tons, up 0.83 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 476.9 tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales for catering revenue for the month was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal's at - the - money call option implied volatility was 17.57%, down 0.91%; put option was 17.56%, down 0.92%. Rapeseed oil's at - the - money call and put option implied volatility was 14.25%, up 1.76% [2]. - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal's 20 - day historical volatility was 15.96%, up 0.01%; 60 - day was 22.2%, up 0.01%. Rapeseed oil's 20 - day historical volatility was 7.91%, up 0.42%; 60 - day was 12.74%, down 0.48% [2]. Industry News - On Tuesday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.34% supported by the strength of Chicago soybean and soybean oil futures. Futures prices rose 4.9 - 8.5 Canadian dollars, with the November contract up 8.5 Canadian dollars to 640.8 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels, lower than last month's estimate but higher than analysts' average expectation. Production and ending stocks are both up, making the report bearish. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and aquaculture boosts demand, but soybean meal substitution and potential increase in imported soybean supply suppress the market. The rapeseed meal price declined with increased positions today [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The USDA report shows that Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is up 750 thousand tons to 20 million tons, exports are down 900 thousand tons, domestic use is up 500 thousand tons, and ending stocks are up 1.34 million tons. Domestically, terminal consumption boost is limited, and supply - demand is loose, but low operating rates and fewer near - month purchases ease supply pressure. Rapeseed oil's upward trend slowed due to the decline of soybean and palm oil [2][3][5]. Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions from myagric.com on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada and China - US trade policies [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall rapeseed market shows complex trends. In the short - term, the supply of rapeseed products is relatively loose, but there is high long - term uncertainty. For rapeseed meal, the direct import pressure has decreased significantly, but the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure suppress the market price. For rapeseed oil, the cost increase supports the price, but high inventory continues to restrict the market price. Short - term trading is recommended for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9378 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2544 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures is 711.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 12.2 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed futures is 5400 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 178 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 232 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 292,927 lots, down 15,753 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 576,482 lots, up 4096 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 25,914 lots, down 9564 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 37,241 lots, up 6117 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 1707, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 31,218, up 1993 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9480 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2460 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9477.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of rapeseed is 5195.72 yuan/ton, up 61.41 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - **Price Differences**: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 930 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 30 million tons, unchanged; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed is 42.51%, up 17.06 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 14.05 million tons, up 0.55 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.6 million tons, up 2.15 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 65.54 million tons, up 1.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 45.59 million tons, up 0.92 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 6.8 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 23 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 3.83 million tons, up 0.54 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 5.35 million tons, down 0.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.94%, up 0.52 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 22.94%, up 0.43 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.19%, up 0.13 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 16.2%, up 0.16 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.24%, down 1.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 27.24%, down 0.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.68%, down 1.25 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 17.08%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the ICE closed up on Friday, with the benchmark contract up 1.60%. South American bumper harvest is putting pressure on international soybean prices, but the decline in the new - season US soybean planting area may add weather premium expectations. The high - level Sino - US economic and trade talks reached important consensus, boosting the strength of US soybeans. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint - The direct import pressure of rapeseed meal has decreased significantly, and the supply is likely to be tight in the later period. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory are suppressing the market price. The rapeseed meal futures price has been fluctuating narrowly recently, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint - The cost of rapeseed oil has increased due to the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations is beneficial to the oil market, but the palm oil is under pressure due to the seasonal increase in production. The supply - side pressure of rapeseed oil has decreased, and the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil has increased, limiting the later import volume. However, the high inventory continues to restrict the market price. The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated greatly today, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed opening rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, the trends of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report at 0:00 on the 13th [2]