10月10日，国内期市油脂油料板块多数飘绿。其中，菜籽粕期货主力合约开盘报2431.00元/吨，今日盘 中低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，菜籽粕主力最高触及2437.00元，下方探低2384.00元，跌幅达 1.85%。 南华期货（603093）表示，在后续菜系原料到港有限背景下，库存将表现季节性加速去库，中加不断谈 判影响盘面预期，短期内跟随豆粕走势为主，加速做多时机需关注后续仓单变化情况。 大越期货指出，菜粕受加拿大油菜籽反倾销最终裁定尚有变数影响冲高回落，加上近期中加关税有调降 传闻，短期回归震荡格局，关注后续发展。菜粕RM2601：2400至2460区间震荡。 东海期货分析称，进口菜粕受季节性冲击明显收缩，且国内菜籽库存见底，在澳菜籽补充进口到港之 前，菜粕供需双弱，豆粕主导其主要行情。 目前来看，菜籽粕行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于菜籽粕后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-09-29 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10093 | -69 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2416 | 11 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | 503 | -17 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) | 93 | 15 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 331056 | -23209 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 359652 | -11448 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 29336 | -7113 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -58070 | 4493 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 8057 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 9245 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 614.5 | -4.3 期货收盘价( ...

Report Overview - The report is the Rapeseed Industry Daily on September 24, 2025 [1] 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9,921 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; Rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 617.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.1 Canadian dollars; Rapeseed (active contract) was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 484 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; Rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 76 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 306,205 lots, down 21,837 lots; Rapeseed meal was 398,111 lots, down 2,822 lots [2] - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil was 17,791 lots, down 5,331 lots; Rapeseed meal was - 73,204 lots, down 32,651 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt numbers: Rapeseed oil was 8,057 pieces, down 125 pieces; Rapeseed meal was 9,245 pieces, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,970 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; Rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,035 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Imported rapeseed cost price was 7,704.6 yuan/ton, up 65.5 yuan [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio was 3.96, up 0.06; Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 49 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; Rapeseed meal main contract basis was 55 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1,620 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; Rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 950 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; Soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 450 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.58 million tons (monthly, in millions of tons), up 0.04 million tons; Annual rapeseed production forecast was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed imports: Total monthly import volume was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 947 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: Total weekly inventory was 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of related products: Monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; Monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Inventory in coastal areas: Rapeseed oil was 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - Inventory in different regions: In East China, rapeseed oil was 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons; In Guangxi, rapeseed oil was 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; In South China, rapeseed meal was 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil was 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: Monthly feed production was 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; Monthly edible vegetable oil production was 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] - Consumption: Monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4,495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal call option was 18.89%, up 0.09%; Rapeseed meal put option was 18.88%, up 0.07%; Rapeseed oil call option was 14.24%, up 0.09%; Rapeseed oil put option was 14.24%, up 0.11% [2] - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal was 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day rapeseed meal was 24.01%, up 0.41%; 20 - day rapeseed oil was 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day rapeseed oil was 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 2. Industry News - On Tuesday, ICE rapeseed futures rose, ending the recent continuous decline. The November contract closed up 7.20 Canadian dollars at 617.60 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract rose 7.80 Canadian dollars to 631.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - U.S. soybeans entered the harvest season, and the expected high yield continued to restrain the U.S. soybean market price. The call between Chinese and U.S. leaders failed to break the deadlock in Sino - U.S. soybean trade, and the export demand of U.S. soybeans remained highly uncertain. Argentina announced the cancellation of agricultural product export tariffs, which may further intensify international market competition [2] 3. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - International factors: Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest season, and the high - yield is gradually realized. The Canadian Statistics Bureau estimates the rapeseed crop output at 2 million tons, the highest level since 2018, which puts pressure on the price of Canadian rapeseed. The U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, market sentiment has weakened, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export taxes has dragged down the collective decline of the oil and fat market [2] - Domestic factors: The arrival of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, reducing the supply pressure. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken the long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation of rapeseed meal. Frequent trade policy news makes the market trading cautious. In the face of Argentina's tax - free impact, rapeseed meal follows soybean meal to weaken, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 4. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - International factors: The U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, market sentiment has weakened, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export taxes has dragged down the collective decline of the oil and fat market [2] - Domestic factors: This year's festival stockpiling is lower than in previous years, and the overall consumption support is limited. The supply and demand of domestic vegetable oil are still relatively loose, which continues to restrain the short - term market price. However, for rapeseed oil itself, the operating rate of oil mills remains low, the output pressure of rapeseed oil is small. The purchase of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, and the supply - side pressure is low. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, which still restricts purchases. It is expected that the rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter will continue to be tight. Before the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation makes substantial progress, rapeseed oil will generally be supported [2] 5. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate reported by Myagric on Monday and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Sino - U.S. trade relations [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for rapeseed meal futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2530.00 yuan, with a current price of 2525.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.27% [1] - Domestic supply pressure is reduced due to a decrease in the arrival of rapeseed, while seasonal demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing [2][4] - The implementation of temporary anti-dumping measures on rapeseed by China further weakens long-term supply expectations [2] Group 2 - Short-term trends for rapeseed meal are expected to follow soybean meal prices, with limited arrivals of rapeseed impacting inventory levels [3][4] - The current low inventory levels at major domestic ports are attributed to a decrease in the arrival of Canadian rapeseed, although year-on-year levels remain high [4] - The ongoing negotiations between China and Canada regarding tariffs on rapeseed may influence future market conditions, but the impact is considered limited [4]

据外媒报道，欧洲植物油和蛋白粕行业组织FEDIOL表示，2025年8月，欧盟27国+英国的油菜籽压榨量 为180万吨，7月为134.8万吨，去年8月为178.5万吨。 机构观点 东吴期货：菜粕短期高库存流通压力也依然存在，然菜籽库存低且远月买船少，政策预期不变，那后期 依然有上行波动基础。 9月17日，菜籽粕期货呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力合约大幅走低2.15%，报2463.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 9月16日，沿海地区普通菜籽粕报价2590~2700元/吨，较前一交易日上涨20~30元/吨，较上周同期上涨 0~20元/吨。 国内油厂菜籽库存继续下降，目前仅8万吨左右。开机率下滑，下游提货表现亦一般，油厂菜粕库存降 至1.7万。 大越期货：菜粕受加拿大油菜籽反倾销最终裁定尚有变数影响冲高回落，加上近期中加关税有调降传 闻，短期回归震荡格局，关注后续发展。菜粕RM2601：2480至2540区间震荡。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA report for 2025/26 shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre is slightly lower than last month but higher than analysts' expectations, with increased production and ending stocks, which is generally bearish. In the Canadian market, the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase, while exports are expected to decline. For domestic rapeseed meal, the short - term supply pressure is reduced due to less near - month arrivals, and the demand is seasonally increasing, but the substitution of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile. For domestic rapeseed oil, the overall supply and demand is loose, but the low oil mill operating rate and limited near - month purchases ease the supply pressure, and the market trend is relatively strong [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 10,053 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2,518 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 632.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5,330 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 467 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 121 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Open interest: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract is 333,040 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract is 376,582 lots, down 17,074 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long positions of rapeseed oil are 26,789 lots, up 8,398 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal are - 14,068 lots, up 15,904 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 8,202, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 10,214, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,940 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,400 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Average price and import cost: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,005 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,899.85 yuan/ton, down 50.05 yuan [2] - Basis and price spreads: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 40 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 102 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 10 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, down 0.27 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 763 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 8.65 tons, down 1.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, down 0.05 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 52.12 tons, down 1.08 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 30 tons, down 1.51 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.1 tons, down 0.45 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20 tons, down 1.3 tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.03 tons, up 0.77 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.74 tons, down 0.15 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2,827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4,504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.96%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.2%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 7.91%, up 0.42 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.74%, down 0.48 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower on Monday. The benchmark contract fell 1.16% due to the rapid progress of rapeseed harvesting in the prairie region and weak rapeseed exports. The decline in the external vegetable oil market also exerted downward pressure [2] - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels, with increased production and ending stocks. The report is generally bearish [2] - The USDA report also shows that the Canadian rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 750,000 tons to 20 million tons, exports are expected to decrease by 900,000 tons to 6.7 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to increase by 500,000 tons to 12 million tons, and ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.34 million tons to 2.954 million tons [2] 3.8 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Bullish factors: Near - month rapeseed arrivals are scarce, reducing supply pressure. The aquaculture season boosts the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. The implementation of temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply [2] - Bearish factors: The good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Minister of Agriculture is considering measures to avoid Chinese tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed is being realized [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Bullish factors: The low operating rate of oil mills eases the production pressure of rapeseed oil. Near - month rapeseed purchases are limited, reducing supply pressure. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, restricting purchases [2] - Bearish factors: The boost from the start of the school term to terminal consumption is limited, and the domestic vegetable oil supply and demand is still loose [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed oil market has a relatively strong trend, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 4, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical products leading the decline [10][12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate later, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate at a low level, and crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate with a weak bias [17][24][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity indices fell and CGB futures rose on September 4. Most commodities declined, with energy and chemical products leading the drop [10][12]. - Among China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were rapeseed, iron ore, and egg; the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, LSFO, and fuel oil [10][11][12]. - In financial futures, IC declined by 2.4% and TL increased by 0.3% [11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Iron Ore**: On September 4, it rose 1.7% to 791.5 yuan/ton. Demand is high, supply and inventory are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate later [15][17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On September 4, it rose 0.2% to 2519 yuan/ton. Protein meal may continue to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to international weather and domestic supply - demand changes [21][24]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On September 4, it decreased by 2.2% to 481 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are likely to fluctuate with a weak bias, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and geopolitical risks [28][30]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Leaders of China and the DPRK will hold talks to strengthen cooperation [35][36]. - The "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, with specific development targets set [35][36]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of July, the number of QFIIs reached 900, with 40 new ones added this year. The CSRC will introduce more reform measures to promote capital market opening [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the supply - side pressure persists due to the expected high yield of US soybeans, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. In China, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals eases supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts rapeseed meal consumption. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The implementation of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada and China - US trade negotiations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, concerns about palm oil production and transportation in Indonesia and strong export data of Malaysian palm oil support the palm oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain the price. The low - level operation of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease the supply - side pressure. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also weaken the long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market has been fluctuating narrowly recently, and the focus is on trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil active contract is 9766 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2500 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 4711 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2]. - Monthly spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 169 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 106 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 258,258 lots, down 5291 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 398,350 lots, down 5972 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 1373 lots, down 4424 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 27480 lots, down 5159 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: There are 4487 warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil, up 600; and 6041 for rapeseed meal, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9895 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7868.13 yuan/ton, up 9.98 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.71, down 0.02; the basis of rapeseed oil main contract is 64 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 100 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 million tons; and the import volume of rapeseed meal is - 0.1 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.4 million tons, up 4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.5 million tons, up 0.4 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 55.4 million tons, up 1.8 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 32.86 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 4.85 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 20 million tons, down 1.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.26 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.89 million tons, up 0.1 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal is 19.53%, down 0.11% and 0.12% respectively; that for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 1.29% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.23%, up 0.09%; the 60 - day is 21.87%, up 0.04%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.93%, up 0.49%; the 60 - day is 14.5%, up 0.13% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The rapeseed and related product markets are influenced by international trade relations, with recent market fluctuations increasing. Short - term trading is recommended. The market is also affected by factors such as supply and demand, harvest conditions, and trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the international market, the expected high yield of US soybeans brings supply - side pressure, but the reduction in planting area provides support. Domestically, the decrease in near - month rapeseed arrivals reduces supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts demand. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Internationally, there are supply - side risks in Indonesia and strong export data for Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9801 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2513 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 6041 yuan/ton, down 369 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 166 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 107 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 263,549 lots, down 52 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 404,322 lots, down 9,848 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holding for rapeseed oil is 5,797 lots, down 1,541 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holding for rapeseed meal is - 22,321 lots, down 8,632 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,887 sheets, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 4,750 sheets, up 104 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9945 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7858.15 yuan/ton, down 95.37 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 79 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 87 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Price Differences**: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 600 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast in China is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.05 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.5 million tons, up 0.4 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.6 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 32.86 million tons, down 0.73 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.9 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.4 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 2.81 million tons, down 0.95 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 2.79 million tons, down 0.45 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.64%, up 0.19%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.65%, up 0.21%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 11.83%, up 0.23%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 11.83%, up 0.23% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.15%, down 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.84%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.44%, up 0.57%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.37%, up 0.11% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 29, ICE rapeseed futures fell to a nearly five - month low due to fund long - position liquidation and the start of the Canadian rapeseed harvest. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed down 9.30 Canadian dollars at 626.40 Canadian dollars per ton, hitting a low of 621.70 Canadian dollars since April 7 [2]. - The Pro Farmer report predicts that the average yield of US soybeans will reach a record high of 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total production of 4.246 billion bushels. The deviation from the USDA forecast is small, indicating stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - International supply pressure exists, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. Domestically, the decrease in near - month rapeseed arrivals reduces supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - Internationally, there are supply - side risks in Indonesia and strong export data for Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The implementation of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens long - term supply [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade relations [2].

震荡收低，关注贸易谈判走向。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-08-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9853 | 32 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2501 | -25 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日 ...