1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on weekly technical indicator signals, different sectors of commodity and financial futures show various trends. In the commodity futures, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black and shipping, energy, chemical, and agricultural product sectors have different signals of rising, falling, or oscillation. In the financial futures, stock index futures mostly show bearish signals, while treasury bond futures show an oscillatory trend [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - Precious metals: Gold shows a bearish signal, and silver shows an oscillatory signal. Non - ferrous metals: Zinc, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate show bullish signals, aluminum shows a bearish signal, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a weekly "umbrella line" but no reversal, a shrinking MACD red column, and a narrowing Bollinger Band [9][10][13] 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Hot - rolled coil, coking coal, and manganese silicon show bullish signals, and the rest, including European container shipping, show oscillatory signals. For example, rebar is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a flat weekly line, a MACD death - cross above the zero - axis on the daily line, and the price touching the MA60 [18][19][24] 3.3能源及化工板块 - In the energy sector, crude oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, while fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show oscillatory signals. In the chemical sector, soda ash, 20 - rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, pulp is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bearish monthly line, weakening upward momentum on the weekly line, and a MACD running below the zero - axis on the daily line [31][32][35] 3.4农产品板块 - Soybean oil, sugar, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, and red dates show bullish signals, soybean No. 1, rapeseed meal, and apples show bearish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, corn is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bullish weekly line but a shrinking red column and a MACD green column expanding on the daily line [40][41][45] 3.5股指期货板块 - Shanghai 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 stock index futures all show bearish signals. For example, IC CSI 500 futures and IF SSE 300 futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [50][51][53] 3.6国债期货板块 - 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all show oscillatory signals. For example, the 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [62][63][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rebounded on March 17, with the most actively traded May contract up 26.9 Canadian dollars, or 3.8%, settling at 729.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - Affected by the decline of US soybeans, rapeseed meal has given back some of its previous gains, with large short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to participate in short - term trading [2] - Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has generally remained in a high - level shock, with increased short - term fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures was 9780 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures was 2443 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [2] - The month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 141 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the month - to - month spread of rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was 16 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 229,484 lots, down 4185 lots; the position of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 600,206 lots, down 20,858 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil was - 18,729 lots, up 1557 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal was - 145,326 lots, down 7417 lots [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 905, down 220; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 586, down 1675 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures was 729.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 26.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures was 5778 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,351.25 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 5388.97 yuan/ton, up 169.65 yuan [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.86, up 0.04 [2] - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 590 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 217 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2] - The spot price of grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9860 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 510 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 670 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual global rapeseed output was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual predicted rapeseed output was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The total rapeseed import volume was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 146 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan [2] - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 8%, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 27.65 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 27.65 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi region was 0.5 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2] - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, down 3.19 billion yuan [2] - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 27.48%, down 2.88%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 27.48%, down 2.87% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 28.12%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 20.84%, down 0.01% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 2.88%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 2.88% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.58%, up 0.76%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.83%, down 0.08% [2] 3.8 Industry News - On March 17 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, rebounding from the previous day's decline, with the most actively traded May contract up 26.9 Canadian dollars, or 3.8%, at 729.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Affected by the increase in South American soybean supply and the decline in US soybean export expectations, US soybeans fell sharply, dragging down the domestic rapeseed meal price [2] - China's cancellation of the anti - discrimination tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff will increase the supply pressure in the distant month [2] - The adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with expectations, with limited overall impact [2] - The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres [2] - The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed output in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, boosting the demand expectation of vegetable oil for biodiesel [2] - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in March, while the output increase was limited, and the end - of - month inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on palm oil, and the market expects the export of Indonesian palm oil to tighten [2] - The domestic edible oil spot market has a weak trading atmosphere, and high prices suppress demand [2] - The future import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding supply pressure in the distant month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal price is dragged down by the sharp decline of US soybeans, and the supply pressure in the far - month will increase due to the return of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal to the domestic market. The short - term fluctuation is large, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term. [2] - The rapeseed oil futures price generally maintains a high - level shock recently, and the short - term fluctuation increases. The market is currently trading on the drive of biodiesel demand. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9833 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2485 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. [2] - The 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 134 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of rapeseed meal is 30 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan. [2] - The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 233,669 lots, down 11,060 lots; the position of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 621,064 lots, up 1,213 lots. [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is - 20,286 lots, down 6,825 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 137,909 lots, up 10,052 lots. [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 1,125, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2,261, unchanged. [2] - The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 702.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 36.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5,900 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,400 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,680 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,381.25 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5,219.32 yuan/ton, down 236.25 yuan. [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 3.82, down 0.05. [2] - The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 567 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 195 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. [2] - The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,560 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,960 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 440 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is - 45 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan. [2] - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 220,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is - 100 tons, down 500 tons. [2] - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 238,200 tons, up 23,500 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 20,000 tons, up 5,000 tons. [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 276,500 tons, up 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 57,500 tons, down 23,000 tons. [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 5,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 302,000 tons, up 19,000 tons. [2] - The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 52,000 tons, down 70,000 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 104,000 tons, up 50,000 tons. [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3,008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons. [2] - The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan. [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 30.36%, down 4.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 30.35%, down 4.78%. [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 28.16%, up 6.34%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.86%, up 2.12%. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is down 0.5%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 22.78%, up 0.23%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.91%, down 0.5%. [2] 3.8 Industry News - On March 16th, the rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed significantly lower, dragged down by the limit - down of US soybeans and the decline of soybean oil. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract fell 37.30 Canadian dollars or 5.04%, settling at 702.60 Canadian dollars per ton. [2] - The previous market was boosted by the geopolitical conflict, but as the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which frustrates the market's export expectations for US soybeans. [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The cancellation of the anti - discrimination tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. [2] - The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the previous average expectation of 22.3 million acres. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture expects the rapeseed production in 2026/27 to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, and the international oil price has risen significantly, driving the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in March, and the inventory at the end of the month is expected to continue to decline. [2] - The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on specific commodities such as palm oil, and the market expects the export of Indonesian palm oil to tighten, supporting the palm oil market price. [2] - The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been settled, and the import volume is expected to increase significantly in the future, adding supply pressure in the far - month, but the market has already anticipated this, and the impact on the market is limited. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE rapeseed futures rose on March 11 due to the rebound of crude oil prices after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 13.20 Canadian dollars, settling at 733.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The market expects a breakthrough in Sino - US negotiations. The soaring crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical situations will boost the demand for soybean oil through the US soybean biofuel policy. The strong soybean crushing in the US supports the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. It is currently the off - season for aquatic product demand, and the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. However, the adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with market expectations, with limited overall impact. The rapeseed meal continued to rise, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the rise in the international soybean market boosts rapeseed oil. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict leads to a sharp rise in international oil prices, promoting the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. The rise in the peripheral oil market supports the domestic market. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has already anticipated this, with limited impact on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9769 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2492 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 731.8 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 6199 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 102 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 22 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil was 244,974 lots, down 8696 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal was 606,359 lots, down 45,781 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil was - 14,396 lots, down 2196 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal was - 98,903 lots, up 8939 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil was 1125 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal was 2311 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,435 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed was 5445.59 yuan/ton, up 50.16 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio was 3.92, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 632 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 168 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8990 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1570 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9780 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 880 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 8%, up 4.8 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.6 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.5 million tons, up 0.85 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 25.55 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 8.05 million tons, down 1.24 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 28.3 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was - 0.18 million tons, down 0.18 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0.54 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 28.27%, up 5.62 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 28.28%, up 5.63 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 19.98%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 4.96 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 18.78%, up 2.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.53%, up 1.18 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.21%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 20.16%, up 0.02 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On March 11, ICE rapeseed futures rose as crude oil prices rebounded after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 13.20 Canadian dollars, settling at 733.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The market expects a breakthrough in Sino - US negotiations. The soaring crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical situations will boost the demand for soybean oil through the US soybean biofuel policy. The strong soybean crushing in the US supports the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics survey shows that the total intended planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of Energy said that the country is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel to prevent the impact of the Middle East conflict on crude oil supply [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Rapeseed meal**: With the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and a significant drop in Canadian rapeseed tariffs, Canadian rapeseed and meal will flow back to the domestic market, increasing far - month supply pressure. Currently in the off - season of aquaculture demand, rapeseed meal demand is mainly rigid. Affected by the rise of US soybeans, rapeseed meal has been oscillating strongly recently, suitable for short - term trading [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has already priced it in. Affected by the rise in international oil prices, rapeseed oil futures prices continued to rise and are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9486 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2303 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures (active) were 705.9 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.7 Canadian dollars [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 85 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was - 53 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 277,988 lots, up 5,120 lots; rapeseed meal was 880,720 lots, down 7,478 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil was - 10,896 lots, down 1,705 lots; for rapeseed meal was - 215,678 lots, down 2,532 lots [2]. - **Warehouse receipts**: Rapeseed oil had 625 warehouse receipts, unchanged; rapeseed meal had 1,000 warehouse receipts, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,100 yuan/ton; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,490 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,187.5 yuan/ton, down 168.75 yuan [2]. - **Ratios and spreads**: The oil - meal ratio was 4, down 0.04; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 614 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 187 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1,430 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the rapeseed - palm oil spot spread was 1,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread was 570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: Global rapeseed production was forecasted at 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecasted rapeseed production in Canada (2026/27) was 1.92 million tons, down from the previous year's 2.18 million tons [2]. - **Imports**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 556,000 tons, up 536,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 2.2 million tons, up 500,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 2.382 million tons, up 235,000 tons [2]. - **Inventory and operation rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 2 million tons, up 1.25 million tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 3.2%, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 100,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 65,000 tons, up 5,000 tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 2.61 million tons, up 190,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 929,000 tons, down 6,000 tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 80,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 2.98 million tons, up 230,000 tons [2]. - **Delivery volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was - 18,000 tons, down 18,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 54,000 tons, up 54,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed was 30.086 million tons, up 307,000 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 5.254 million tons, up 606,000 tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Implied volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.52%, up 0.45%; put options was 20.52%, up 0.6%. For rapeseed oil, call options was 17.07%, down 1.12%; put options was 17.04%, down 1.13% [2]. - **Historical volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.76%, down 0.78%; 60 - day was 14.5%, down 0.13%. For rapeseed oil, 20 - day was 16.57%, down 4.55%; 60 - day was 18.18%, up 0.15% [2]. Industry News - On March 3 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures continued to rise as the risk of war in Iran led to a significant increase in the prices of crude oil and related energy commodities. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract rose 8.20 Canadian dollars to 706.60 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture stated at the annual outlook forum that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. South American soybean harvest is progressing, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase [2]. - The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicted that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 1.92 million tons, lower than the previous year's 2.18 million tons, and the ending inventory will be 165,000 tons, lower than the previous year's 275,000 tons [2]. - The USDA Outlook Forum predicted that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in 2025/26 will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026/27 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal, the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs, and the current off - season of aquaculture demand. Despite the short - term strength due to the rise of US soybeans, there is pressure on long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market is boosted by international oil prices and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Although there is long - term supply pressure, it is expected to be strong in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9464 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2310 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 697.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5839 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 54 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 59 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 272,868 hands, up 4058 hands; rapeseed meal is 888,198 hands, down 21,060 hands [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 9191 hands, up 7327 hands; rapeseed meal is - 213,146 hands, up 12,462 hands [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 625 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 1000 sheets, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,250 yuan/ton, average rapeseed oil price is 10,356.25 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed (import) import cost price is 5252.04 yuan/ton, up 394.94 yuan [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 786 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 200 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - Substitute spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8770 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference is 1480 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference is 1250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 570 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Oil - meal ratio: 4.04, up 0.05 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed import quantity: 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is - 78 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 7.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons; weekly import rapeseed startup rate is 3.2%, up 3.2 percentage points [2] - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal: 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 1 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 0.65 million tons, up 0.05 million tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 26.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory: 9.29 million tons, down 0.06 million tons [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 0.8 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory: 29.8 million tons, up 2.3 million tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量: - 0.18 million tons, down 0.18 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量: 0.54 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; edible vegetable oil production: 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2] - Social consumer goods retail sales - catering revenue: 573.8 billion yuan, down 3.19 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Rapeseed meal options: At - the - money call option implied volatility is 20.07%, up 0.91 percentage points; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 19.92%, up 0.77 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 14.54%, down 0.25 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 14.63%, up 0.02 percentage points [2] - Rapeseed oil options: At - the - money call option implied volatility is 18.19%, up 1.69 percentage points; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 18.17%, up 1.67 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 21.12%, up 0.93 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 18.02%, up 0.4 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - On March 2, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher due to the rise in energy prices driven by the Middle East situation. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 10.70 Canadian dollars to 698.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - The US Department of Agriculture expects the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [2] - The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. The ending inventory is 1.65 million tons, lower than 2.75 million tons in the previous year [2] - The US Department of Agriculture's outlook forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in 2025/26 will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026/27 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal futures closed up today, affected by the strength of US soybeans, and short - term trading is recommended. The supply pressure of rapeseed meal in the far - month will increase due to the return of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal to the domestic market, but the market has already anticipated this [2]. - The rapeseed oil futures closed up today, boosted by the rise in international oil prices, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has already factored this in [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9359 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2295 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - The 5 - 9 month spread of rapeseed oil was 29 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the 5 - 9 month spread of rapeseed meal was - 65 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil was - 16518 lots, up 5021 lots; that of rapeseed meal was - 225608 lots, up 11708 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 625, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal was 1000, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 688.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 3.7 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5918 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 10156.25 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed was 4857.1 yuan/ton, down 3139.96 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.99, up 0.03 [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 691 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 195 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8850 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 148 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 7.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 3.2%, up 3.2% [2]. - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 1 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.65 million tons, up 0.05 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 26.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 9.35 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.8 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 27.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 1.17 million tons, down 1.2 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.48 million tons, up 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.16%, down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.15%, down 0.1% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 14.78%, down 0.22%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 14.61%, up 0.01% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.5%, down 0.15%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 16.5%, down 0.15% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 20.19%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.62%, down 0.07% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - On February 27 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures fell, but rose slightly for the whole week, following the trend of soybean oil. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract fell 5.30 Canadian dollars to 687.70 Canadian dollars per ton. Traders are skeptical about the continuous rise of rapeseed due to lower - than - expected demand from major buyers and sufficient inventory [2]. - The expected high yield of South American soybeans and the increasing supply pressure as the Brazilian harvest progresses. However, the US biofuel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing supports the strength of US soybeans [2]. - The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. The ending inventory is 1.65 million tons, lower than 2.75 million tons in the previous year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture's Outlook Forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in the 2026/27 season [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the rapeseed industry is complex. For rapeseed meal, due to the unclear Sino - Canadian trade situation, the supply - side pressure is limited, but it is in the off - season of aquaculture demand, and the demand is mainly rigid. The overall rapeseed meal has maintained a volatile trend recently, and short - term trading is recommended. For rapeseed oil, the Sino - Canadian trade situation also restricts the commercial purchase of rapeseed, and the supply - side pressure is relatively limited. The rapeseed oil closed lower in shock today, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures closing price (active contract) is 9185 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; rapeseed meal futures closing price (active contract) is 2296 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures closing price (active) is 690.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures closing price (active contract) is 5795 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 21 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 65 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract position is 251806 hands, down 6923 hands; rapeseed meal main contract position is 904520 hands, up 36518 hands [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil net long position is - 20883 hands, down 8971 hands; rapeseed meal net long position is - 223328 hands, down 29725 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipt quantity is 625 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu is 9980 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; rapeseed meal spot price in Nantong is 2510 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. Rapeseed spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10086.25 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The import cost price of imported rapeseed is 8065.45 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 795 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 214 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price spread is 1330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price spread is 1200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price spread is 590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; rapeseed annual forecast production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed import quantity (total) for the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity for the current month is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; rapeseed meal import quantity for the current month is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit and开机率: Imported rapeseed crushing profit per ton is 172 yuan, down 6 yuan; imported rapeseed weekly开机率 is 0%, down 2.67% [2]. - Inventory: Rapeseed inventory in oil mills (total) is 7.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, unchanged; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.6 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory is 24.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 9.35 million tons, unchanged. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, unchanged; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 27.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 1.17 million tons, down 1.2 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 1.48 million tons, down 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the current month is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the current month is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue for the current month is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility is 18.37%, down 1.34%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 18.37%, down 1.34%. Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility is 15.8%, up 0.34%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 15.8%, up 0.34% [2]. - Historical volatility: 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 14.69%, up 0.27%; 60 - day historical volatility is 14.63%, up 0.13%. 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 20.07%, down 0.01%; 60 - day historical volatility is 17.65%, up 0.02% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On February 25 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures showed a divergent trend. US President Trump's speech in the State of the Union did not give clear guidance to the Canadian rapeseed market. The most active May rapeseed contract fell 0.20 Canadian dollars to 691.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture said at the annual outlook forum that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. South American soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase [2]. - The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. The ending inventory is 1.65 million tons, lower than 2.75 million tons in the previous year [2]. - From February 1 - 20, 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.9% - 12.6% month - on - month. The US Department of Agriculture's outlook forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in 2025/26 will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026/27 [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been extended to March 9 due to the complexity of the case [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - Global and Canadian rapeseed supply - demand patterns are relatively loose, which restricts market prices. The pressure from the US on Canada may affect Canadian rapeseed oil exports, but there are high expectations of improved China - Canada trade relations, which support the Canadian rapeseed market. The US bio - diesel policy may be beneficial, and the supply of Malaysian palm oil is decreasing this month with increased exports. Indian palm oil imports in January are expected to rise significantly [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the policy still has an impact on the rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets. The opening of COFCO's Australian rapeseed production line and the purchase of 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed by Chinese importers are expected to increase supply pressure. After a previous rebound, rapeseed meal has declined again and is in a weak trend [2]. - For rapeseed oil, it is in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, due to the decline of external oils, rapeseed oil has declined recently, and market volatility has increased. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Rapeseed oil futures closing price (active contract): 9215 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; rapeseed meal futures closing price (active contract): 2249 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan. Rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9): 80 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9): - 38 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed oil main contract position: 285363 lots, up 1028 lots; rapeseed meal main contract position: 922401 lots, up 9439 lots. Rapeseed oil net long position of the top 20 futures holders: - 14551 lots, down 2962 lots; rapeseed meal net long position of the top 20 futures holders: - 229177 lots, down 22631 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts: 625 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts: 0 sheets, unchanged. ICE rapeseed futures closing price (active): 645.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2 Canadian dollars; domestic rapeseed futures closing price (active contract): 6007 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu: 9970 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; rapeseed meal spot price in Nantong: 2520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. Average rapeseed oil price: 10076.25 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; import cost of imported rapeseed: 7794.48 yuan/ton, down 84.91 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu: 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged. Oil - meal ratio: 3.93, up 0.02. Rapeseed oil main contract basis: 755 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis: 271 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - Fourth - grade soybean oil spot price in Nanjing: 8640 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference: 1330 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. Palm oil (24 - degree) spot price in Guangdong: 9160 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference: 810 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - Soybean meal spot price in Zhangjiagang: 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference: 580 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; domestic rapeseed production forecast: 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed import volume: 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; imported rapeseed crushing profit: 291 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 0.1 million tons, unchanged; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 0.53%, unchanged. Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; import volume of rapeseed meal: 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 0.2 million tons, unchanged; coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 0.1 million tons, up 0.1 million tons. Rapeseed oil inventory in East China: 24.4 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in East China: 10.1 million tons, down 2 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 0.2 million tons, unchanged; rapeseed meal inventory in South China: 29.2 million tons, up 1.4 million tons. Rapeseed oil weekly提货量: - 0.03 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量: 0.1 million tons, up 0.1 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail: 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. Edible vegetable oil production: 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal: 20.28%, up 1.12%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed meal: 20.28%, up 1.13%. 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 18.11%, up 0.03%; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 13.86%, down 0.02% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed oil: 15.92%, down 0.13%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed oil: 15.93%, down 0.12%. 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 23.61%, up 2.11; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 17.59%, up 0.7 [2]. Industry News - On February 2nd (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures weakened. The most actively traded March rapeseed futures contract fell 3.00 Canadian dollars, settling at 645.00 Canadian dollars per ton. The May rapeseed futures contract fell 2.80 Canadian dollars, settling at 656.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - There are high expectations of a bumper South American soybean harvest, and Brazilian soybeans have entered the early harvest stage, putting continuous pressure on international soybean prices. However, due to the increasing demand for soybean oil in bio - fuels, US soybean crushing remains strong, supporting the US soybean market price [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. Affected by the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation overall [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, the improvement of China-Canada trade relations has increased the long - term supply pressure, causing rapeseed oil to decline in oscillation and increasing short - term volatility [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 8902 yuan/ton, down 161 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was -21 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was -66 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 253,596 lots, down 16,032 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract was 1,013,517 lots, up 95,878 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were -20,757 lots, down 14,342 lots; for rapeseed meal were -272,749 lots, down 31,903 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,942 sheets, down 200 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 637.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,956.25 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,636.99 yuan/ton, up 46.97 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 4.04, up 0.09 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 787 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 820 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast for the year was 13.446 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - The total import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the total import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.24% (17.23% previously), down 0.6%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.23% (17.21% previously), down 0.6% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 16.38%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 13.06%, up 0.24% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 18.03%, up 2.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 14.77%, up 1.07% [2]. Industry News - On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.8%, hitting a six - week high, due to a new trade agreement between Canada and China including a reduction in rapeseed tariffs [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report showed that the U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season was 4.262 billion bushels, higher than last month's forecast and market expectations. The USDA also raised Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts, which was bearish for the market [2]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest on record, which was positive for U.S. soybeans [2].