研究员：周儒飞 机构：方正证券 4.3、3.5、2.1 万美元/天，同比+30%、+4%、-11%、-20%，环比-17%、-11%、-16%、+11%。 本轮运价驱动来自于增产+制裁两大可持续逻辑的逐步兑现，需求总量与结构层面均不断迎来边际利 好，供给端合规运力增速受限，同时供应链事件也将带来额外期权，因此我们持续看好VLCC 正规市场 中期景气向上。 1）增产角度：非OPEC 美洲地区（巴西/加拿大/圭亚那等）稳定增产与OPEC+政策性增产形成共振，东 西两边出口同时活跃显著利好VLCC 吨海里需求。考虑补偿性减产与设施限制等，假设OPEC+本轮实 际增产量约为名义配额增量（220+165 万桶/天）的50%，对应原油轮海运需求弹性约4%。 2）制裁角度："双轨制"下伊朗/俄罗斯非合规贸易制裁趋紧利好合规市场份额结构性替代，目前制裁延 伸至原油产业链各环节且边际上影响程度扩大。近期俄罗斯石油巨头与中国重要码头（日照实华）受制 裁等事件催化，进一步加速中国/印度增加采购正规原油、损耗合规VLCC 周转效率。 内、外贸油运毛利同比下滑，外贸期租同/环比降幅明显。测算Q3 内贸油运/外贸油运/LNG 运输收入占 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The completion of the private placement is expected to support the company's development, with a focus on the fundamentals of oil transportation and the strategic value of the company [5] - The recent performance of VLCC freight rates has been strong, driven by increased production from OPEC+ and a favorable supply-demand balance in the oil transportation market [7] - The strategic value of the company is highlighted in the context of the US-China port fee conflict, positioning it advantageously in international shipping competition [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 22,091 million RMB (2023), 23,244 million RMB (2024), 24,918 million RMB (2025E), 28,804 million RMB (2026E), and 29,957 million RMB (2027E), with growth rates of 18.40%, 5.22%, 7.20%, 15.59%, and 4.01% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3,351 million RMB (2023), 4,037 million RMB (2024), 5,397 million RMB (2025E), 8,062 million RMB (2026E), and 8,625 million RMB (2027E), with year-on-year growth rates of 129.91%, 20.47%, 33.70%, 49.39%, and 6.98% respectively [6] - The company's P/E ratios for the years 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 11.07, 7.41, and 6.93 respectively [6] Capital Raising and Strategic Developments - The company has completed a private placement of 694,444,444 shares at an issue price of 11.52 RMB per share, raising approximately 8 billion RMB, which will be used to build new vessels and enhance its fleet structure [7] - The demand for oil transportation is expected to increase due to OPEC+ production cuts and a tightening supply of VLCCs, which will likely improve market conditions [7]

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) shares fell over 4%, currently trading at 8.46 HKD with a transaction volume of 29.839 million HKD, following OPEC+'s announcement of a production increase that was lower than market expectations [1] Group 1: Company Performance - COSCO Shipping Energy's stock dropped by 4.3% [1] - Current share price is 8.46 HKD [1] - Trading volume reached 29.839 million HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Context - On October 5, OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, consistent with the increase in October [1] - This production increase is significantly lower than the previously reported expectation of 500,000 barrels [1] - Huayuan Securities predicts that the oil transportation market may see a notable improvement in Q4 2025 due to the ongoing acceleration of OPEC+ production increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) experienced a decline of over 4%, specifically a drop of 4.3%, trading at HKD 8.46 with a transaction volume of HKD 29.839 million [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The decline in share price is attributed to the announcement from OPEC+ on October 5, stating that eight oil-producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, maintaining the same increase as in October [1] - This production increase is significantly lower than the previously reported potential increase of 500,000 barrels, leading to market concerns regarding oil supply dynamics [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Huayuan Securities has indicated that with the ongoing acceleration of OPEC+ production increases, there may be a notable improvement in the oil transportation market's outlook by Q4 2025 [1]

证券研究报告 中远海能 (1138 HK/600026 CH) 港股通 25 年景气上行，关注地缘事件预期差 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 27 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 水路运输 | 中远海能发布年报，2024 年营收 232.4 亿元（yoy+2.3%）；归母净利 40.4 亿元（yoy+19.4%）；扣非归母净利 39.8 亿元（yoy-3.8%），符合业绩预告。 24 年国际油运市场前高后低，2H24 运价环比下滑，主因全球宏观需求偏弱 以及 OPEC+持续减产影响。公司宣布年末每股派息 0.21 元，对应全年分红 率 50.8%。展望 25 年，我们预计伴随国内需求逐步回暖叠加 OPEC+宣布 自 4 月起增产，我们预计 25 年国际原油及成品油运价同比将增长，推升公 司盈利。另一方面，地缘事件存在较多不确定性，市场预期差大，公司盈利 具有较大弹性。重申"买入"。 根据 OPEC+公告，自 25 年 4 月起逐步增产，我们认为此举将带动原油运 输需求。另一方面，美国加强对伊朗制裁，被制裁油轮有望退出，行 ...