Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in various ETFs, particularly in the metals and mining sectors, indicates a recovery in market sentiment following a period of volatility, driven by technical corrections and strategic reserve initiatives by major economies [1][2][4]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs have shown significant gains: - Cathay Metals ETF: +6.23% YTD +16.57% - Mining ETF: +5.80% YTD +18.51% - Cathay Metals LOF: +5.72% YTD +16.21% - Cathay Gold ETF: +5.03% YTD +12.07% - Gold Stocks ETF: +4.24% YTD +29.39% - Cathay Chemical ETF: +4.03% YTD +8.03% - Building Materials ETF: +4.03% YTD +10.91% [1]. Market Dynamics - The rebound in gold prices, reaching a peak of $4,949.99, and silver prices above $87, reflects a shift in market dynamics, with short positions being closed and new buying interest emerging [2]. - The increase in holdings of the iShares Silver Trust by 1,023.23 tons marks the third-largest single-day increase in its history, indicating strong investor interest [3]. Strategic Reserve Initiatives - The Chinese government is exploring the expansion of its copper strategic reserve, which may support copper prices, similar to the U.S. strategic reserve initiatives [3]. - Trump's plan to initiate a $12 billion mineral reserve aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing against supply disruptions, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing security over efficiency in resource management [4]. Future Outlook - The expectation of a resource bull market remains, supported by historical patterns where extreme volatility in gold prices often precedes significant upward trends [5]. - Long-term factors such as monetary easing, the safe-haven appeal of gold, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to sustain gold's upward trajectory [6]. - Investors are advised to adopt differentiated strategies, balancing short-term opportunities with long-term value, while being cautious of market volatility [7]. Related Investment Opportunities - Key ETFs to consider include: - Largest Oil ETF: 561360 - Unique Coal ETF: 515220 - Cathay Chemical ETF: 516220 - Largest Building Materials ETF: 159745 [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant rebound in precious metal prices, with gold surpassing $4,800 per ounce and silver increasing over 10% to exceed $85, driven by strong investor demand and expectations of future price increases [1][2] - The precious metals ETF (512400) rose by 3.23%, with a trading volume of 1.379 billion yuan, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by ongoing demand from central banks and investors [1] Group 2 - Eastern Securities suggests that the market's liquidity expectations are stabilizing, leading to potential recovery opportunities for undervalued assets [2] - The recent nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to support interest rate cuts without aggressive monetary easing, alleviating concerns about the Fed's independence [2] - The industrial metals sector is experiencing a slowdown in inventory accumulation, with downstream processing activity showing signs of recovery, which may enhance price acceptance [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations are rebounding, and there are opportunities for recovery in mispriced assets. The recent nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to significant price fluctuations in metals due to optimistic short-term expectations for precious metals. It is recommended to focus on recovery opportunities for mispriced varieties [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Judgment - The liquidity expectations are rebounding, and there are opportunities for recovery in mispriced assets. The market anticipates that Waller will support interest rate cuts but will not adopt aggressive monetary easing policies. This has alleviated concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to significant price fluctuations in metals. The accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories has slowed, and downstream processing rates are beginning to recover, indicating an increase in acceptance of higher prices [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.37% in the week ending January 30, ranking third among all industries [20][21] 3. Precious Metals - The narrative of monetary easing has faced setbacks, leading to increased short-term volatility in precious metals. For the week ending January 30, SHFE gold rose by 4.10% to 1,161.42 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold fell by 1.14% to 4,879.60 USD per ounce. The total gold reserves of the People's Bank of China increased by 30,000 ounces to 7,415,000 ounces, marking the 14th consecutive month of expansion [14][31] 4. Copper - For the week ending January 30, SHFE copper rose by 2.31% to 103,680 CNY per ton, while LME copper increased by 0.32% to 13,157.5 USD per ton. The supply side remains tight, with ongoing disruptions from strikes in Chile affecting copper concentrate supply. The processing rate for copper rods was 69.54%, reflecting a 1.56 percentage point increase [17][29] 5. Aluminum - For the week ending January 30, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.11% to 24,560 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum fell by 0.79% to 3,144 USD per ton. The average profit per ton of aluminum is approximately 8,548 CNY, supported by rising aluminum prices [16][87]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to potential price fluctuations. As industrial product prices rise, domestic downstream negative feedback is increasing, resulting in accelerated inventory accumulation. Recent margin increases by CME and SHFE for certain products may lead to significant short-term price volatility in industrial metals. However, the overall bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Liquidity expectations are rebounding, which does not hinder the long-term bullish logic. Recent statements from Trump favoring Hassett for the National Economic Council chair have increased market expectations for the next Federal Reserve chair. The probability of a rate cut in April has dropped to 30%. This may lead to price fluctuations in precious metals due to the weakened short-term rate cut narrative. In the industrial sector, as prices rise, negative feedback from domestic downstream is intensifying, and inventory is accumulating rapidly [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.03% in the week ending January 16, ranking third among all industries [18] 3. Precious Metals - Short-term rate cut narratives are challenged, leading to potential price fluctuations in precious metals. For the week ending January 16, SHFE gold rose by 2.57% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 2.62% to 4,590.00 USD per ounce. SHFE silver surged by 20.03% to 22,483.00 CNY per kilogram, and COMEX silver rose by 12.30% to 89.19 USD per ounce [14][15][29] 4. Copper - Negative feedback is intensifying, leading to increased price volatility for copper. For the week ending January 16, SHFE copper fell by 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton, while LME copper decreased by 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton. The supply side remains tight, and the transmission to the smelting end is approaching [17][28] 5. Aluminum - The processing operation remains resilient, and the profit per ton of aluminum is expected to stay high. For the week ending January 16, SHFE aluminum fell by 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum decreased by 0.06% to 3,134 USD per ton. The processing operation rate slightly increased to 60.2%, with overall inventory accumulating [16][89]