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金信期货纸浆日刊-20250904
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 09:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The pulp price is currently weak due to delivery pressure and a fundamental pattern of weak supply and demand. However, with the pulp price falling to a low level, there are rumors that some enterprises are preparing to take delivery, which may relieve the warehouse receipt pressure. As the port inventory decreases week - on - week and the seasonal peak demand season approaches, paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices, so the pulp price may rebound. The report maintains a view of range - bound trading [3]. - The pulp price in Shandong is stable today, the market shows signs of stopping the decline, but the upward driving force is limited, the trading sentiment is light, and it is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound trading before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The short - selling main force has reduced positions, which is bullish [8]. Summary by Related Content Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the supply of hardwood pulp remains loose, but Brazil has a slight production cut and raised the quotation, basically indicating the confirmation of a phased bottom. The risk of tariffs increases the possibility of production cuts by overseas softwood pulp mills, and the pattern of tight softwood and loose hardwood continues to diverge [3]. - On the demand side, there is an expectation of a recovery, but the spot market has not shown signs of improvement. The "peak season is not prosperous", with basically small fluctuations. Among the four major paper types, the production of offset printing paper and tissue paper increased year - on - year, while the production of white cardboard and coated paper decreased year - on - year. The improvement of raw paper orders is limited, dragging down the pulp market trend [3]. Price and Market Trend - The spot price of softwood pulp in Shandong today continues to remain stable, and the port inventory starts to decline slightly, but it is still higher than the same period last year [3]. - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, the market has signs of stopping the decline, but the upward driving force is limited, and the trading sentiment is light [5]. Market Sentiment and Suggestion - The short - selling main force has reduced positions, which is bullish for the pulp market [8]. - It is expected that the pulp market will remain in a low - level range - bound trading before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, and it is recommended to wait and see [5].