Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: March 4, 2026 [2] - Report type: Pulp Daily [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The supply - demand pressure of pulp has insufficient improvement, and it is mainly in a low - level wide - range shock adjustment, pending a further decline in overseas market shipments or a continuous improvement in the profitability of the papermaking industry [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures 05 contract: The previous settlement price was 5,244 yuan/ton, the closing price was 5,220 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,700 - 5,550 yuan/ton, and the high - end price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,280 - 5,300 yuan/ton [7] - Pulp futures 09 contract: The price related data shows a decline of 0.42% [7] Industry Data - Asia - Pacific Senbo announced a 150 - yuan increase per ton of hardwood pulp in March [8] - According to the January report released by PPPC, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries in the world decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, softwood pulp decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and hardwood pulp increased by 3.5% year - on - year [8] - According to UTIPULP data, in January 2026, the European wood pulp inventory was 681,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the European wood pulp consumption was 802,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [8] - In December 2025, the total pulp import volume was 3.113 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [8] - As of February 26, the total inventory of major domestic regions and ports was 2.3551 million tons, an increase of 13.3% compared with the week before the holiday, and the overall shipment speed was gradually recovering [8] - Downstream paper enterprises had a process of rigid - demand inquiries, but the overall inventory replenishment rhythm was relatively gentle, and double - offset paper enterprises had a relatively strong willingness to hold prices [8] Group 5: Industry News - On March 3, it was reported that the Jiangxi Hukou High - tech Park was expanding a paper project with a scale of over one million tons. The project planned to produce 400,000 tons of high - grade information paper, 700,000 tons of paper, and 100,000 tons of coated paper annually, without a pulping link, and all the required pulp came from the project's chemimechanical pulp and purchased commercial pulp. Multiple production lines would be newly built [9] Group 6: Data Overview - Multiple figures are presented, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, softwood - hardwood price difference, inter - delivery price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and price differences of coated paper, double - offset paper, white cardboard, and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources mainly from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [15][17][19][24][25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Supply - demand pressure improvement is insufficient, range - bound trading" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Fundamentals**: In the macro - aspect, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegal, and Trump introduced a new 15% tariff using Article 122. The US announced that Trump will visit China from March 31st to April 2nd. In the domestic market, in January, the year - on - year increase in CPI fell to 0.2%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 1.4%. The new social financing in January was 7.2 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year. The RMB exchange rate continued to rise. In February, pulp showed an inverted N - shaped trend, mainly fluctuating with the industrial product sector. On the supply side, the FOB quotes of imported wood pulp were stable and strong, while the continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar weakened the support of import costs. In the European market, the consumption of chemical pulp in January decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the inventory of chemical pulp in January decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. In December, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, among which softwood pulp decreased by 2.3% and hardwood pulp decreased by 0.9%. As of late February, the inventory in major regions and ports increased by 11.09% month - on - month. On the demand side, in February, raw paper enterprises completed their raw material stockpiling, market demand weakened, and the number of accepted orders was insufficient. In the cultural paper market, some production lines were shut down, and the overall shipment became lighter during the month. In the tissue paper market, supply and demand were operating at a low level with limited transactions. In the packaging paper market, some implemented price - protection policies and had weak motivation for price adjustment [7]. - **View**: On the cost side, in February, the quote of Chile's Arauco remained at $710 per ton, and the appreciation of the RMB offset some pressure. It remains to be seen about the subsequent quotes in the pulp week in March. On the supply side, after the Spring Festival, pulp enterprises gradually resumed production, and the import volume may increase, so the total supply is expected to increase. As of the end of February, the overall inventory of pulp in major regions and ports was still at a high level compared to the same period, but the inventory accumulation rate was lower than last year. On the demand side, in March, the operation of downstream paper mills will gradually return to normal, but the second quarter will enter the off - season of papermaking demand, so the total demand will first increase and then decrease. Overall, currently, the supply - demand pressure of pulp has not improved sufficiently, and it is mainly in a wide - range low - level shock adjustment. It awaits a further decrease in overseas market shipment volume or a continuous improvement in the profitability of the papermaking industry [7]. - **Strategy**: Buy low and sell high, conduct range - bound operations [7]. - **Important Variables**: Macroeconomic policies, supply disruptions, and demand performance [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February, pulp prices fluctuated in a low - level range, with a monthly decline of 0.5%. In the macro - aspect, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegal, and Trump introduced a new 15% tariff using Article 122. The US announced that Trump will visit China from March 31st to April 2nd. In the domestic market, in January, the year - on - year increase in CPI fell to 0.2%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 1.4%. The new social financing in January was 7.2 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year. The RMB exchange rate continued to rise. In February 2026, pulp first weakened, then strengthened, and then adjusted, mainly fluctuating with the industrial product sector. The FOB quotes of imported wood pulp were stable and strong, while the continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar weakened the support of import costs. In the European market, the consumption of chemical pulp in January decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the inventory of chemical pulp in January decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. In December, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, among which softwood pulp decreased by 2.3% and hardwood pulp decreased by 0.9%. As of late February, the inventory in major regions and ports increased by 11.09% month - on - month. In February, raw paper enterprises completed their raw material stockpiling, market demand weakened, and the number of accepted orders was insufficient. The average monthly price of imported softwood pulp in January decreased by 3.22% compared to the previous month, and the average monthly price of imported hardwood pulp decreased by 1.81% compared to the previous month. In February, the FOB quotes of wood pulp from Chile's Arauco were: softwood pulp Silver Star at $710 per ton; unbleached pulp Venus at $620 per ton; hardwood pulp Star at $600 per ton [9]. 3.2 Global Commodity Pulp Shipment Volume Continues to Decline Year - on - Year - The global commodity pulp shipment volume continues to decline year - on - year. According to PPPC, in December, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries was 1.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.27%; the shipment volume of hardwood pulp was 3.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.91%. In December, the ratio of the global commodity chemical pulp shipment volume to production capacity seasonally rebounded to a neutral level in recent years, an increase of 8.16% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 1.81% compared to the same period last year. In December, the inventory days of softwood pulp for global producers were 47 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the previous month and an increase of 5 days compared to the same period last year; for hardwood pulp, it was 37 days, a decrease of 5 days compared to the previous month and a decrease of 2 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - China's pulp import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year in December. In December, China imported 3.11 million tons of pulp, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to December, the cumulative pulp import was 36.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. By variety, in December, 780,000 tons of softwood pulp were imported, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%; 1.35 million tons of hardwood pulp were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4% [17]. - In February, the inventory in major ports increased significantly month - on - month. As of late February, the inventory in major domestic ports and regions was about 2.3551 million tons, an increase of 11.09% compared to the previous month. Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port increased by 11.17% compared to the previous month, and that in Changshu Port increased by 6.86% compared to the previous month [18]. 3.3 Downstream Market Demand is in the Post - Festival Recovery Stage - China's machine - made paper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In December 2025, the production of machine - made paper and paperboard in China was 14.928 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. From January to December, the cumulative production was 164.0535 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [37]. - The finished product inventory of China's papermaking and paper products industry accumulated again. In December, the inventory of the papermaking and paper products industry increased by 4.6% year - on - year and 2.6% month - on - month; the finished product inventory increased by 8.2% year - on - year and 1.7% month - on - month [37]. - In February, raw paper enterprises completed their raw material stockpiling, and market demand weakened [37]. - **White Cardboard**: As of February 27th, the monthly average price of the white cardboard market was 4,269 yuan per ton, a 0.02% increase compared to the previous month. In February, paper mills mostly adopted a stable - market attitude under cost pressure, and some implemented price - protection policies. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the overall market transactions were limited, and the motivation for price adjustment was weak [37]. - **Tissue Paper**: As of February 27th, the monthly average price of the tissue paper market was 5,850 yuan per ton, a 0.07% increase compared to the previous month. In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the supply and demand of the tissue paper market were operating at a low level with limited transactions, and the paper price basically remained stable [37]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: As of February 27th, the monthly average price of the natural - white double - offset paper market was 4,459 yuan per ton, the same as the previous month. In February, the offers of paper enterprises were basically stable, and the overall shipment became lighter during the month. Some production lines were shut down, and the market supply decreased month - on - month. In the middle and late ten - days, the Spring Festival holiday began one after another, and the purchase of raw paper almost stopped. The post - festival demand recovery was relatively slow [38]. - **Double - Coated Paper**: As of February 27th, the monthly average price of the double - coated paper market was 4,660 yuan per ton, a 0.38% decrease compared to the previous month. In February, the offers of paper mills were basically stable, and the supply of goods was abundant. Before the Spring Festival, the market gradually went on holiday, and logistics stopped operating. The downstream purchasing demand decreased. After the Spring Festival, the market recovery rhythm was inconsistent, and the improvement of trading activity was limited [38]. 3.4 The Gross Margin Trend of Wood - Pulp - Based Paper Products is Slightly Better and Stable - The overall gross margin trend of wood - pulp - based paper products is slightly better and stable. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the operating income of the papermaking and paper products industry was 2.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the total profit was 13.6%, and the overall decline expanded again. In February, the monthly average value of the main raw material cost was weaker than the previous month, and the price adjustment of terminal paper products was limited. The overall gross margin trend fluctuated slightly and recovered slowly. By variety, in January, the gross margin of white cardboard increased by 0.11 percentage points compared to the previous month; the gross margin of tissue paper decreased by 0.06 percentage points compared to the previous month; the gross margin of double - offset paper increased by 0.06 percentage points compared to the previous month; the gross margin of double - coated paper increased by 0.07 percentage points compared to the previous month [49].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Recently, the supply side of pulp has been disrupted again, but the demand side is weak. Pulp lacks a clear trading logic and is expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On February 4, 2026, the SP2601 futures price was 5520 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day and down 1.15% week - on - week. The SP2609 spot price was 5374 yuan/ton, up 0.94% day - on - day and down 0.85% week - on - week. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.12% week - on - week. The price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.92% week - on - week. The price of broadleaf pulp Gold Fish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [5]. - **External Quotes and Import Costs**: The external quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month. Its import cost was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month. The external quote of Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 3.51% month - on - month, and its import cost was 4830 yuan/ton, up 3.47% month - on - month. The external quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month. The import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month. The shipment volume of pulp to China in November 2025 was 178 (in ten - tons), up 3.00% month - on - month. As of January 29, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 24 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of double - offset paper, coated paper, and day - card paper decreased, while the production of tissue paper increased slightly. The demand for pulp has been stable recently, with a slight increase in tissue paper prices and stable prices for other paper products [5]. - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 216.9 tons, an increase of 10.1 tons from the previous period, a 4.9% increase. The inventory has continued to accumulate in this cycle, and the port sample inventory has shown a trend of accumulation for four consecutive weeks [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: The 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, and the ending stocks increase slightly. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, while in the long - term, it has limited downward space. In China, the supply is abundant in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. However, the improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: The 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the short - term factors support the rebound of raw sugar prices, the upside space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has sufficient short - term supply, but its low valuation restricts the further decline [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European port pulp inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is still insufficient. However, the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize gradually [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,960 yuan/ton yesterday, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price was 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (34.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0% [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply - demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and there is greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term upward driver is not clear. - Domestic: China's cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, but the downstream demand is weak. The improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy Be neutral to bullish, focus on the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,102 yuan/ton yesterday, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 season, the imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugarcane harvest is accelerating, India's exports are difficult to increase in the short - term, and Thailand's sugarcane crushing is delayed. Although the short - term raw sugar price rebounds, the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern restricts its upside space. - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are starting production, with short - term sufficient supply. However, the low valuation restricts its downward space [5]. Strategy Be neutral to bearish. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,500 yuan/ton yesterday, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,095 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total inventory of pulp in 1 region and 8 ports decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, and the decline narrowed by 3.50 percentage points [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar closing the Crofton paper mill and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill having a temporary shutdown. - Demand: The European port pulp inventory in October decreased, showing some improvement in demand. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize [7]. Strategy Be neutral. Although the pulp price has risen strongly recently, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation restricts its upside space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The pulp futures price has significantly increased, with the main contract closing at 5458 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 3.53% [7]. Supply Summary - Recent announcements indicate several overseas pulp mills are undergoing maintenance, including Domtar's permanent closure of the Crofton mill in British Columbia, which had an annual capacity of 380,000 tons of bleached softwood pulp [8]. - Additionally, the Rauma mill of the Finnish group will temporarily halt production of 650,000 tons of softwood pulp starting December 15, with a gradual resumption expected by January 7 [8]. - The CEO of Finnish company Fibria has indicated preparations for significant production cuts at the Joutseno mill in 2026 due to anticipated market instability in early next year [8]. Demand Summary - The latest data shows a noticeable decrease in wood pulp inventory at European ports in October, indicating a slight improvement in demand [3]. - In China, despite the introduction of substantial paper production capacity this year, effective terminal demand remains insufficient, leading to an oversupply of paper and low operating rates at paper mills [3]. - The overall production of finished paper has not seen significant increases, and the excess capacity in the paper sector continues to compress industry profits [3]. - Downstream paper mills are exhibiting cautious procurement attitudes, resulting in historically high pulp inventory levels at domestic ports [3]. Market Analysis - Recent price increases in pulp futures are attributed to the market gradually digesting previous bearish factors, alongside short covering and disruptions in overseas supply [3]. - However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply and demand dynamics may limit further price increases [3]. - Attention is also drawn to the remaining issues with the needle warehouse receipts that could impact market conditions [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas new - capacity addition is limited in 2025 - 2026. With major overseas broadleaf pulp mills announcing production cuts and conversions in the second half of this year, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and the growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down. European economic improvement may increase the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition in recent years may bring more supply next year, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [5][50]. - Regarding demand, although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production this year, terminal demand was insufficient, paper was in surplus, and paper mills' operating rates were low. The downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, resulting in high port inventories. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, the demand for cultural paper is not expected to be strong, and packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [5][50]. - Overall, in the short - term, the improvement in pulp supply and demand is insufficient, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the pulp price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to wait for the bottom - building and then consider long - position opportunities when the price is low. The breakthrough from the bottom depends on substantial improvement in supply and demand. Attention should also be paid to the impact of the remaining cloth - needle warehouse receipts on the market [6][51]. Summary by Directory 2025 Pulp Market Review - The pulp price showed a trend of continuous decline followed by wide - range fluctuations at a low level throughout the year. It can be divided into five stages: from January to early February, it fluctuated strongly; from mid - February to early May, it declined continuously; from mid - May to July, it fluctuated widely; from August to early October, it hit a new low again; from mid - October to the present, it consolidated at a low level [12][13]. Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis Global Wood Pulp Supply - In 2025, overseas pulp mills had few large - scale new installations. The capacity ramp - up of Suzano's broadleaf pulp in Brazil was the main source of market pressure. The global broadleaf pulp shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, and the global softwood pulp shipments recovered rapidly in the third quarter. The shipments to Western Europe and North America decreased, while the demand from China increased significantly. In 2025, from January to September, the cumulative global softwood pulp shipments increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative global broadleaf pulp shipments increased by 7.7% year - on - year. In September, pulp mills reduced inventories, but the overall inventory was still at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the softwood pulp inventory pressure was higher than that of broadleaf pulp [16]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the pressure of overseas new - capacity release is expected to ease, and the global broadleaf pulp supply pressure may decrease marginally. The growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down, while the softwood pulp may still see a slight increase in the short - term due to high inventory and rising shipments [17]. European Consumption and Inventory - European demand remained weak. In October, the consumption of softwood pulp in Europe was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%; the consumption of broadleaf pulp was 562,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In October, the inventory days at European pulp mills remained at a historical high, suppressing the pulp price. Most European ports' inventories decreased month - on - month in September, and the total European port inventory decreased by 4.39% month - on - month, but it was still at a relatively high level in recent years [21]. China's Pulp Imports - In 2025, the cumulative global pulp shipments increased slightly year - on - year. Due to weak demand in the European and American markets, China became the main destination for increased shipments. From January to October, China's cumulative pulp imports increased by 4.8% year - on - year. The increase in China's pulp imports mainly came from the rise in broadleaf pulp imports, and the total softwood pulp imports also increased, but the increase was relatively small [24][25]. - In 2026, with the recovery of the European economy, the proportion of trade pulp sent to China may decline. The import pressure of broadleaf pulp may decrease, and the increase in softwood pulp imports is also expected to be limited [25]. China's Port Inventories - In 2025, China's pulp port inventories remained at a high level for a long time, indicating an oversupply in the domestic pulp market. Downstream paper mills had low willingness to replenish raw material inventories and mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In November, the port inventory increased slightly, and the inventory pressure remained. The combined pulp inventory of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Baoding area in late November was about 2.0104 million tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous month [31]. China's Downstream Consumption - In recent years, the large - scale new - capacity addition in the domestic finished paper industry led to over - capacity and insufficient demand, squeezing the paper mills' profits. Some large enterprises limited or stopped production. In 2025, the new - capacity addition of white cardboard and offset paper still put pressure on their profits. Although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the overall paper production did not increase significantly. From January to October, the total output of four major types of paper was 31.02 million tons, almost the same as last year. In the long - term, the planned new - capacity addition of paper is still large, and the pulp demand is expected to increase slightly next year. But if the terminal orders do not improve, the upside of the pulp price will be limited [34][35]. 2026 Pulp Market Outlook - Supply: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe may increase, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition may bring more supply, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [50]. - Demand: Terminal demand is insufficient, and paper mills' operating rates are low. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [50]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the pulp market will fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to long - position opportunities when the price is low [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate. Recent pulp warehouse receipts have seen cancellations and new registrations [6]. - On the supply side, Chile's Arauco Company's October offer for coniferous pulp Silver Star decreased by $20/ton to $680/ton, while the offer for hardwood pulp Star remained flat at $540/ton, and the offer for natural pulp Venus remained unchanged at $590/ton [6]. - On the demand side, recent pulp - using paper products have issued price - increase letters. Only the price increase of white cardboard has been well - implemented, and double - offset paper has issued new price - increase letters, with the implementation to be monitored [6]. - On the inventory side, as of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 217.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from the previous period, a 0.05% month - on - month decrease, showing a slight de - stocking trend [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 27, 2025, SP2601 was 5184 yuan/ton, down 0.46% day - on - day and 2.15% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4670 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day and 3.87% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5234 yuan/ton, down 0.49% day - on - day and 1.99% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.82% week - on - week; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5170 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 3.36% week - on - week; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [6]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was $680/ton, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was $530/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was $590/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5721 yuan/ton, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344 yuan/ton, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, unchanged from September; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 131.8 tons, down from 135.6 tons in September. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in different periods. The pulp port inventory on November 27, 2025, was 217.2 tons, down 0.1 tons from the previous period [6]. - **Demand**: The production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated in different periods. For example, the production of double - offset paper on November 27, 2025, was 20.80 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.2 tons, down 0.1 tons from the previous period, a 0.05% decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 21.1 tons [6]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 500, with a quantile level of 0.952; the Silver Star basis was 730, with a quantile level of 0.926 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 159, with a quantile level of 0.378; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.705 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with limited up and down space. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases. It's advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [1][2] - For sugar, short - term prices have limited downward space and may have a weak rebound, but the medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price trend may not be optimistic next year [3][5] - For pulp, the current fundamental improvement is insufficient, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,625 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. As of October 9, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - signed 1.065 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, accounting for 40.11% of the annual expected exports, and cumulatively shipped 318,000 tons with a shipment rate of 29.89%. China had cumulatively signed 28,000 tons of US cotton imports, accounting for 2.65% of the signed US cotton, and cumulatively shipped 5,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA report significantly increased the global cotton production in 2025/26, and the global cotton ending inventory increased significantly compared to September and shifted from destocking to restocking. The sales pressure of US cotton increased significantly. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. - Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton output decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, pushing up the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, and the expected output in Xinjiang has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,379 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. It is expected that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%, and the sugar output will be 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.9% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, strengthening the surplus expectation. India's sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 25/26 season, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the price. However, the short - term export volume in India is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in Brazil will gradually weaken, so the downward space of raw sugar is limited. - Zhengzhou sugar: The latest announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and the sugar mills in Guangxi have successively started crushing, so the short - term supply pressure is high, and the price has reached a new low [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,208 yuan/ton yesterday, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,465 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,955 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market had some price fluctuations, with some prices of imported softwood pulp falling and some prices of imported hardwood pulp rising [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: In September, the European pulp port inventory decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply remained loose. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large - scale new production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as "Neutral" [2][5][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, although the market sentiment has improved due to the substantial progress in Sino-US negotiations, the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high, and there are many uncertainties. The global cotton supply and demand balance sheet needs adjustment, and the domestic cotton industry is in the off - season with limited upside potential for cotton prices [1][2] - For sugar, the international market expects a surplus in the 25/26 sugar season. The domestic sugar price is supported in the short - term but faces pressure from potential future imports. The overall trend of Zhengzhou sugar follows the international sugar price [3][4][5] - For pulp, the improvement in macro - sentiment boosts pulp prices, but the off - season is approaching, and the terminal demand is pessimistic. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,539 yuan/ton, a change of + 52 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,621 yuan/ton, a change of + 54 yuan/ton [1] - Retail data: In April 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 108.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.26%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US is still high, and there is tariff policy uncertainty. - International: USDA has adjusted the 25/26 global cotton supply and demand balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties. The drought in the US cotton - producing areas has improved. - Domestic: The cotton - planting area in the new year is stable with a slight increase. The inventory is being depleted, and the demand has not dropped sharply, but it is in the off - season, and the negative impact of tariffs has not been fully reflected [1] Strategy - The short - term cotton price is supported by improved market sentiment but has limited upside potential due to the off - season and high tariffs [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5855 yuan/ton, a change of - 8 yuan/ton (- 0.14%) from the previous day. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6160 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5980 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton [3] - Shipping data: As of the week of May 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased, and the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 372,100 tons (10.57%) compared to the previous week [3] Market Analysis - International: Although the sugar production in the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of April was lower than expected, international institutions are optimistic about the supply in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is under pressure. - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales data are positive, and the short - term import volume is limited, but the long - term import pressure may increase, and the sugar price may follow the international price [4][5] Strategy - The overall trend of Zhengzhou sugar follows the international sugar price, and attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugar production and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract yesterday was 5426 yuan/ton, a change of + 6 yuan/ton (+ 0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6285 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5425 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton [5] - Market price: The spot price of imported wood pulp decreased slightly, and the high - price transactions of imported hardwood pulp were weak [6] Market Analysis - Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy is volatile, but the Sino - US negotiation progress has improved the market sentiment. - Supply: The foreign quotation has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. - Demand: The European demand has not improved significantly, and the domestic downstream demand is weak and may continue to decline in the off - season [7] Strategy - The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation due to the improvement in macro - sentiment and the pessimistic terminal demand [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side shows that the export of hardwood pulp from major South American exporting countries increased significantly in March, and the sharp decline in the external market weakened the cost support [1]. - The demand side indicates that the prices and production of major wood - pulp paper decreased this week, and paper mills made rigid - demand purchases of pulp [1]. - The inventory side reveals that the pulp port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a high level overall [1]. - In terms of valuation, the current main pulp futures contract is still at a discount to the Russian needle price, and the futures valuation is low [1]. - The short - term strategy is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data 3.1.1 Futures Prices - On April 25, 2025, SP2505 was 5474, down 0.18% week - on - week and up 1.00% compared to the previous week; SP2507 was 5376, down 0.22% week - on - week and up 0.26% compared to the previous week; SP2509 was 5322, down 0.34% week - on - week and up 0.11% compared to the previous week [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - On April 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6350, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Russian needle coniferous pulp was 5450, unchanged week - on - week; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4350, down 1.14% week - on - week [1]. 3.1.3 Outer - Market Quotes - In April 2025, the outer - market quote of Chilean Silver Star was 770 dollars, down 6.67% month - on - month; the outer - market quote of Brazilian Goldfish was 630 dollars, up 3.28% month - on - month; the outer - market quote of Chilean Venus was 690 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1]. 3.1.4 Import Costs - In April 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 6289, down 6.62% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 5154, up 3.25% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5640, unchanged month - on - month [1]. 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - In March 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 79.8 tons, unchanged month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 147 tons, down 8.47% month - on - month [1]. - The shipment volume of pulp to China in February 2025 was 1502 tons, down 2.66% month - on - month [1]. - On April 24, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 18.17 tons; the production of chemimechanical pulp was 20.29 tons [1]. 3.2.2 Inventory - On April 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 210.6 tons; the delivery warehouse inventory was 32.10 tons [1]. - The inventory of offset paper was 19.10 tons; the inventory of coated paper was 7.80 tons; the inventory of tissue paper was 29.30 tons; the inventory of white cardboard was 30.70 tons [1]. 3.2.3 Demand - On April 24, 2025, the production of offset paper was 19.10 tons; the production of coated paper was 7.80 tons; the production of tissue paper was 29.30 tons; the production of white cardboard was 30.70 tons [1]. 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - On April 25, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 74 with a quantile level of 0.832; the Silver Star basis was 974 with a quantile level of 0.988 [1]. - On April 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 61 with a quantile level of 0.724; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 804 with a quantile level of 0.111 [1].