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农产品日报:郑棉窄幅震荡,糖价承压运行-20250523
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 05:35
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as "Neutral" [2][5][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, although the market sentiment has improved due to the substantial progress in Sino-US negotiations, the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high, and there are many uncertainties. The global cotton supply and demand balance sheet needs adjustment, and the domestic cotton industry is in the off - season with limited upside potential for cotton prices [1][2] - For sugar, the international market expects a surplus in the 25/26 sugar season. The domestic sugar price is supported in the short - term but faces pressure from potential future imports. The overall trend of Zhengzhou sugar follows the international sugar price [3][4][5] - For pulp, the improvement in macro - sentiment boosts pulp prices, but the off - season is approaching, and the terminal demand is pessimistic. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,539 yuan/ton, a change of + 52 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,621 yuan/ton, a change of + 54 yuan/ton [1] - Retail data: In April 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 108.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.26%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US is still high, and there is tariff policy uncertainty. - International: USDA has adjusted the 25/26 global cotton supply and demand balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties. The drought in the US cotton - producing areas has improved. - Domestic: The cotton - planting area in the new year is stable with a slight increase. The inventory is being depleted, and the demand has not dropped sharply, but it is in the off - season, and the negative impact of tariffs has not been fully reflected [1] Strategy - The short - term cotton price is supported by improved market sentiment but has limited upside potential due to the off - season and high tariffs [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5855 yuan/ton, a change of - 8 yuan/ton (- 0.14%) from the previous day. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6160 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5980 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton [3] - Shipping data: As of the week of May 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased, and the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 372,100 tons (10.57%) compared to the previous week [3] Market Analysis - International: Although the sugar production in the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of April was lower than expected, international institutions are optimistic about the supply in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is under pressure. - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales data are positive, and the short - term import volume is limited, but the long - term import pressure may increase, and the sugar price may follow the international price [4][5] Strategy - The overall trend of Zhengzhou sugar follows the international sugar price, and attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugar production and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract yesterday was 5426 yuan/ton, a change of + 6 yuan/ton (+ 0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6285 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5425 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton [5] - Market price: The spot price of imported wood pulp decreased slightly, and the high - price transactions of imported hardwood pulp were weak [6] Market Analysis - Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy is volatile, but the Sino - US negotiation progress has improved the market sentiment. - Supply: The foreign quotation has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. - Demand: The European demand has not improved significantly, and the domestic downstream demand is weak and may continue to decline in the off - season [7] Strategy - The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation due to the improvement in macro - sentiment and the pessimistic terminal demand [8]
纸浆数据日报-20250428
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 08:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side shows that the export of hardwood pulp from major South American exporting countries increased significantly in March, and the sharp decline in the external market weakened the cost support [1]. - The demand side indicates that the prices and production of major wood - pulp paper decreased this week, and paper mills made rigid - demand purchases of pulp [1]. - The inventory side reveals that the pulp port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a high level overall [1]. - In terms of valuation, the current main pulp futures contract is still at a discount to the Russian needle price, and the futures valuation is low [1]. - The short - term strategy is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data 3.1.1 Futures Prices - On April 25, 2025, SP2505 was 5474, down 0.18% week - on - week and up 1.00% compared to the previous week; SP2507 was 5376, down 0.22% week - on - week and up 0.26% compared to the previous week; SP2509 was 5322, down 0.34% week - on - week and up 0.11% compared to the previous week [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - On April 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6350, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Russian needle coniferous pulp was 5450, unchanged week - on - week; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4350, down 1.14% week - on - week [1]. 3.1.3 Outer - Market Quotes - In April 2025, the outer - market quote of Chilean Silver Star was 770 dollars, down 6.67% month - on - month; the outer - market quote of Brazilian Goldfish was 630 dollars, up 3.28% month - on - month; the outer - market quote of Chilean Venus was 690 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1]. 3.1.4 Import Costs - In April 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 6289, down 6.62% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 5154, up 3.25% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5640, unchanged month - on - month [1]. 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - In March 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 79.8 tons, unchanged month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 147 tons, down 8.47% month - on - month [1]. - The shipment volume of pulp to China in February 2025 was 1502 tons, down 2.66% month - on - month [1]. - On April 24, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 18.17 tons; the production of chemimechanical pulp was 20.29 tons [1]. 3.2.2 Inventory - On April 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 210.6 tons; the delivery warehouse inventory was 32.10 tons [1]. - The inventory of offset paper was 19.10 tons; the inventory of coated paper was 7.80 tons; the inventory of tissue paper was 29.30 tons; the inventory of white cardboard was 30.70 tons [1]. 3.2.3 Demand - On April 24, 2025, the production of offset paper was 19.10 tons; the production of coated paper was 7.80 tons; the production of tissue paper was 29.30 tons; the production of white cardboard was 30.70 tons [1]. 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - On April 25, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 74 with a quantile level of 0.832; the Silver Star basis was 974 with a quantile level of 0.988 [1]. - On April 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 61 with a quantile level of 0.724; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 804 with a quantile level of 0.111 [1].