CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年10月9日，中国纸浆高栏港库存5.4万吨，较上周上涨1.3万吨，环比上涨31.7%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的趋势。 4.【中国纸浆主流港口样本库存周数据统计】截至2025年10月9日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：207.7万吨，较上期累库4.4万吨，环比上涨2.2%，库存量在本 周期呈现累库的走势。本周期纸浆国内主流港口青岛港库存数量呈现去库走势，节日期间因天气原因，港口卸货速度减缓，导致去库；港外库存数量较港内多，港 内出货速度亦有所减缓。本周期常熟港库存呈现累库的趋势 ...

Core Insights - The construction of the Pinglu Canal in Qinzhou is progressing rapidly, with significant investments and infrastructure developments aimed at enhancing the city's logistics and transportation capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The Pinglu Canal project has seen a total investment of approximately 596.81 billion yuan, accounting for 82.1% of the estimated project cost [1]. - Key infrastructure includes the completion of a 300,000-ton oil terminal, a 200,000-ton navigation channel, and four automated container terminals, adding 16 berths for vessels over 10,000 tons and increasing port throughput capacity by 49.73 million tons and container capacity by 2.63 million TEUs [1]. Group 2: Trade and Logistics Expansion - The port's cargo throughput has surpassed 200 million tons, with container throughput expected to reach 6.96 million TEUs in 2024, marking a 92.4% increase since 2020 [2]. - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor has facilitated over 10,000 sea-rail intermodal trains annually, doubling the volume since 2020 and expanding coverage to 18 provinces and 163 stations [2]. Group 3: Cross-Border Trade and Investment - Qinzhou has established a cross-border logistics network with ASEAN, launching 84 container shipping routes and direct shipping services with Malaysia and Vietnam [3]. - The total foreign trade volume with ASEAN countries is projected to reach 14.69 billion yuan in 2024, a 72.9% increase year-on-year, with ASEAN investments accounting for over one-third of the city's actual foreign capital utilization since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3].

Core Insights - The construction of the Pinglu Canal and its associated infrastructure is a significant opportunity for the city of Qinzhou, enhancing its development as a coastal canal city with high-quality growth and openness [3] Infrastructure Development - The Pinglu Canal project has seen a total investment of approximately 596.81 billion yuan, accounting for 82.1% of the estimated project cost [3] - Key infrastructure includes the completion of a 300,000-ton oil terminal, a 200,000-ton channel, and four automated container terminals, adding 16 berths for vessels over 10,000 tons and increasing port throughput capacity by 49.73 million tons and container capacity by 2.63 million TEUs [3][4] Cargo and Trade Growth - The port's cargo throughput has surpassed 200 million tons, with container throughput expected to reach 6.96 million TEUs in 2024, marking a 92.4% increase since 2020 [4] - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor has seen the annual operation of over 10,000 sea-rail intermodal trains, doubling since 2020, and expanding coverage to 18 provinces, 75 cities, and 163 stations [4] ASEAN Trade and Investment - Qinzhou has established a cross-border industrial chain for products like bird's nest and palm oil, facilitating continuous imports from ASEAN countries [6] - The city has opened 84 container shipping routes, including direct routes to Malaysia and Vietnam, and has seen a 72.9% year-on-year increase in trade with ASEAN countries, with total trade expected to reach 14.69 billion yuan in 2024 [6]

Group 1 - The paper industry chain is expected to see a price recovery due to multiple factors such as the approaching peak season, collaboration among leading companies, and low levels of profitability and inventory [1] - Leading paper manufacturers are anticipated to benefit from higher raw material self-sufficiency and economies of scale [1] - Recommendations include companies with strong operational capabilities such as Sun Paper (002078.SZ) and Nine Dragons Paper (02689), which is accelerating its integrated layout of boxboard and pulp [1] Group 2 - The price of recycled paper has accelerated, with a significant increase in August, where prices for recycled boxboard rose by 125-195 RMB compared to early July, and AA-grade high corrugated prices increased by 165-265 RMB [1] - The company expects continued price increases in August and September, leading to a widening price gap and a recovery in profitability [1] - In the wood pulp sector, domestic prices for hardwood pulp have risen by 150-190 RMB/ton compared to early July, with international prices also increasing [2] - The upcoming peak season is expected to drive further price increases for hardwood pulp as paper manufacturers replenish their stocks [2]

Group 1 - The company Yueyang Lin Paper plans to increase its wholly-owned subsidiary Maoyuan Forestry's registered capital by 1.4 billion yuan through debt-to-equity conversion, raising the total from 471 million yuan to 1.871 billion yuan [1] - The total assets of Maoyuan Forestry are reported to be 3.439 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 2.961 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 86% [1] - The capital increase aims to respond to state-owned asset management needs and strategic transformation, as mandated by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1][2] Group 2 - Following the capital increase, Maoyuan Forestry's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to approximately 45%, improving its financial structure and risk resilience [2] - The paper industry has been experiencing a downturn, but Yueyang Lin Paper has managed to turn a profit through asset integration, projecting a net profit of 130 million to 156 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [3] - The company has seen a 60% year-on-year increase in finished paper exports from January to July this year, indicating a successful expansion in market reach [3] Group 3 - The paper industry is currently witnessing a price increase trend, driven by rising raw material costs and improved demand expectations [3][4] - The market for corrugated and boxboard paper has shown signs of easing supply-demand dynamics, with downstream packaging manufacturers increasing their procurement activities [4] - Analysts suggest that the paper industry, characterized by imbalanced supply and demand, is likely to benefit from the current market conditions as it stabilizes at a low profitability level [4]

Group 1 - The SP2509 contract experienced significant volatility in July, rising from 5080 points to a peak of 5560 points, an increase of 9.4%, followed by a decline of 6.1% in the last week [1] - The macroeconomic factors are driving the market more than the fundamentals, as indicated by the stable pulp spot market and weakening basis [1] - Global economic indicators, such as Citigroup's Global Surprise Index, have remained above zero this year, with most data exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, marking seven consecutive months of year-on-year growth, supporting the logic of a strong macroeconomic environment [1] - The supply of hardwood pulp has decreased compared to softwood pulp, while downstream consumption continues to rise, indicating a better fundamental outlook for hardwood pulp [1] - The price spread between hardwood and softwood pulp is expected to narrow from -174 points to -1211 points by the second half of 2024, reflecting an improvement in hardwood pulp fundamentals [1] Group 3 - The softwood pulp supply side is underperforming, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 0.92 in Europe for June, leading to seven consecutive months of inventory accumulation [1] - Domestic imports of softwood wood chips and pulp reached 793,000 tons in June, marking a marginal increase for seven consecutive months, which negatively impacts SP valuations [1] - The domestic paper industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, with total profits decreasing by 21.4% year-on-year in June and total losses increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [1] Group 4 - In May, electricity consumption in the paper industry was 846 million kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, falling below the average of 875 million kilowatt-hours for the previous year [1] - By the end of July, the paper industry issued an anti-involution initiative, aiming to reduce finished paper production, limit wood pulp capacity expansion, and improve the quality of finished paper [1] - Overall, the market fundamentals are considered average [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the "bull market atmosphere" is continuously strengthening, with the main logic of "anti-involution" significantly improving the supply-demand structure for midstream manufacturing in 2026 [6][14] - The report suggests that the conditions for residents to fully allocate equity are still lacking, but the profit effect is accelerating, potentially leading to an earlier time for comprehensive incremental speculation in A-shares [6][14] - The report recommends actively seeking new structural opportunities in the current market phase, which is seen as a transitional stage for the market to find the main structure of the bull market [6][14] Group 2 - The report highlights the "iron triangle" stocks: Ruike Laser, Giant Network, and Heng Rui Medicine, which are expected to perform well due to their strong market positions and growth potential [6][17] - Other recommended stocks include: Pengding Holdings, Yangnong Chemical, Sun Paper, Zhongmin Resources, China Shipbuilding, Maifusi (Hong Kong), and Jianfa International Group (Hong Kong) [6][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology with industrial trend catalysts and midstream manufacturing with improved supply-demand dynamics as key investment themes [6][14] Group 3 - The previous stock combination from July 1 to July 31, 2025, achieved a return of 5.11%, with A-shares averaging a 3.53% increase, while the Hang Seng Index saw an increase of 2.91% [6][2] - Since the first release of the stock combination on March 28, 2017, the cumulative increase has reached 322.85%, with A-shares up 251.34% and Hong Kong stocks up 809.47% [6][2] - The report provides detailed performance metrics for the recommended stocks, including market capitalization and price changes, indicating a strong performance relative to benchmarks [6][15]