Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic data from the US and Japan, highlighting significant trends in housing sales, employment, and inflation [2][10] - It emphasizes the mixed signals in the US economy, with some indicators showing improvement while others indicate a slowdown [2][4] Group 1: Important Data Review - US January existing home sales fell significantly, with an annualized rate of 3.91 million units, down 8.4% month-over-month, against an expectation of a 4.15 million unit decline [12] - The US non-farm payrolls for January added 130,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 65,000, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.7% year-over-year [12] - Japan's Prime Minister announced plans to implement tax cuts, including a proposal to suspend the consumption tax on food and beverages for two years, potentially reducing tax revenue by approximately 5 trillion yen annually [13] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) rose to 2.70% for the week ending February 7, up from 2.21% the previous week, indicating a rebound in economic activity [15] - Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) also increased to 0.10% for the week ending February 8, compared to 0.02% the prior week [15] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate decreased to 6.5% year-over-year for the week ending February 6, down from 6.7% the previous week [18] - Mortgage rates in the US fell slightly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, down from 6.11% the previous week [23] Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment change showed an increase, with 26,000 jobs added over the four weeks ending January 24, up from 20,000 the previous week [28] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000 for the week ending February 7, down from 232,000 the previous week [31] - The number of job vacancies fell, with the Indeed job vacancy index averaging 103.5, down from 104.2 in December [36] Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 306.54, down 1.0% week-over-week and 4.2% over the past two weeks [6] - US gasoline prices increased to $2.77 per gallon, up 0.8% from the previous week [42] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.537, down from 0.755 the previous week [46] - Offshore dollar liquidity worsened, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -20.1909 basis points, down from -17.9347 basis points the previous week [49] - The 10-year government bond yield spreads narrowed between the US and Eurozone, as well as between the US and Japan [52]

Economic Data and Events - The US manufacturing and services PMI, as well as consumer confidence, exceeded expectations, while employment data was significantly weaker than anticipated [2][14] - In the Eurozone, January manufacturing PMI showed a greater rebound than the initial value, but services PMI and retail sales fell short of expectations; inflation met expectations and remained stable compared to the previous value [2][14] - Japan's manufacturing and services PMI both improved in January [2][14] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key focus on the US non-farm payroll report for January to be released on February 11 and the US CPI data for January to be released on February 13 [3][16] Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 2.13% for the week ending January 31, down from 2.49% the previous week [4][18] - Germany's economic activity index returned to positive territory, with the WAI index at 0.1% for the week ending February 1, compared to -0.01% the previous week [5][18] Demand - US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth rate showed fluctuations, with a reading of 6.7% for the week ending January 30, down from 7.1% the previous week [6][21] - The US mortgage rate stabilized, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.11% on February 5, slightly up from 6.10% the previous week; mortgage applications fell, with the MBA market composite index at 330.8, down 8.9% week-on-week [6][24] Employment - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 for the week ending January 31, up from 209,000 the previous week; continuing claims increased from 1.819 million to 1.844 million for the week ending January 24 [7][27] - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 103.9 as of January 30, slightly lower than the December average of 104.2 [8][29] Prices - Commodity prices experienced a significant pullback, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 3.3% week-on-week as of February 6 [9][34] - US gasoline prices stabilized at $2.75 per gallon for the week ending February 2, showing no change from the previous week [9][36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe showed signs of recovery, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.755 on February 6, up from 0.539 the previous day [10][39] - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with narrow fluctuations in swap basis [11][41] - High-yield dollar bond spreads widened but showed signs of recent recovery, with the spread-to-worst for JPMorgan's global BB-B rated dollar bonds at 256.3 basis points [11][43] - The yield spread between US and Japanese bonds narrowed, while the spread between Italian and German bonds widened [11][46] Fiscal Data - As of February 5, cumulative federal funding expenditures in the US increased by 3.8% year-on-year, totaling approximately $784.5 billion [12][49][52]

Economic Data and Events - US manufacturing and services PMI, along with consumer confidence, exceeded expectations, while employment data was significantly weaker than anticipated[2] - Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI showed a larger-than-expected rebound, but services PMI and retail sales fell short of expectations[2] - Japan's January manufacturing and services PMI both improved[2] Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index stood at 2.13% for the week ending January 31, with a four-week moving average of 2.32%[4] - Germany's WAI index returned to positive territory at 0.1%, with a four-week moving average of 0%[4] Demand Indicators - US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth was 6.7%, with a four-week moving average of 6.25%[5] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US stabilized at 6.11%, with mortgage applications declining by 8.9% week-on-week[5] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, up from 209,000 the previous week[6] - The INDEED job vacancy index was 103.9, slightly down by 0.5% from the previous week[7] Price Trends - The RJ/CRB commodity price index decreased by 3.3% week-on-week, while US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.75 per gallon[8] Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US was 0.755, recovering from 0.539 the previous day[9] - The Eurozone's Financial Conditions Index increased to 1.714 from 1.533 the previous week[9] Fiscal Data - As of February 5, US federal spending was approximately $784.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8%[10]

报告摘要 （一）本周和未来一周的海外重要经济数据 文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 核心观点 高频来看，美国初请失业金人数仍处于低位，海外大宗商品价格大幅上涨但周五明显回调，美国汽油零售 价持续反弹，美国信用利差有所扩大。经济数据方面，美国去年12月PPI环比超预期，欧元区四季度GDP好 于预期，日本1月东京CPI低于预期。关注即将公布：美国1月ISM制造业（2/2）、1月非农数据（2/2）、2 月密歇根消费者信心指数（2/6），欧元区1月CPI（2/4）、欧央行利率决议（2/5）。 1 月 26 日 -30 日当周，美国： 去年 11 月耐用品订单环比初值好于预期，去年 12 月 PPI 环比超预期， 1 月世界大型企业研究会消费者信心指数低于预期， 1 月 MNI 芝加哥 PMI 好于预期。 欧元区 ：去年 4 季 度 GDP 好于预期，去年 12 月失业率好于预期。 日本 ： 去年 12 月工业产值好于预期， 1 月东京 CPI 低 于预期，去年 12 月失业率符合预期，去年 12 月零售环比低于预期。 2 月 2 日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. employment indicators are stabilizing at low levels, with various metrics showing signs of steadiness in the labor market [2]. Group 1: Recent Economic Data and Events - Multiple economic data points from the U.S. exceeded expectations, including Q3 GDP growth rate, personal consumption, industrial output growth for November, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for December. However, consumer confidence and durable goods orders growth fell short of expectations [4][18]. - In the Eurozone, Spain's November PPI decreased compared to the previous value, while Italy's November PPI increased [5][18]. - Japan's inflation and industrial output were below expectations [5][18]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key upcoming economic indicators to watch include the Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December, scheduled for release on January 2, and the S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI for December, also set for January 2 [6][20]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The U.S. economic activity index showed a slight rebound, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week ending December 20, compared to 2.31% the previous week [7][22]. - Germany's economic activity index also trended upward, reaching 0.14% for the week ending December 21 [7][22]. Group 4: Demand - U.S. retail sales growth, as measured by the Redbook index, increased year-on-year to 7.2% for the week ending December 19, up from 6.2% the previous week [8][28]. - Mortgage rates in the U.S. remained stable, with a slight decline in mortgage applications [9][30]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly employment figures showed stabilization at low levels, with approximately 46,000 new jobs added in the four weeks ending December 9, down from 70,000 the previous week [9][35]. - Initial jobless claims fell to 214,000 for the week ending December 20, better than expected, while continuing claims rose to 1.923 million, exceeding expectations [10][38]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 104.66 as of December 12, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week [11][41]. Group 6: Prices - Commodity prices rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index increasing by 1.8% week-on-week as of December 26, following a decline of 1.1% the previous week [12][46]. - U.S. gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.72 per gallon for the week ending December 22, down 1.9% from the previous week [12][46]. Group 7: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the Eurozone improved, while U.S. financial conditions remained stable at high levels [13][49]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed slight easing, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -24.1 pips, improving from -25.8 pips the previous week [13][51]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar corporate bonds remained stable at 265.3 basis points as of December 26 [13][54]. - U.S. and Japanese long-term government bond spreads remained stable, with the 10-year U.S.-Japan bond spread at 214.1 basis points [13][57]. Group 8: Fiscal - As of December 24, cumulative federal spending in the U.S. for the year was approximately $7.66 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [15][62].

Group 1: Key Economic Data Review - In the US, September durable goods orders were revised up to 3% from 2.9%, with a preliminary month-on-month value of 0.5% [12] - September retail sales increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.6% [12] - The Consumer Confidence Index for November was reported at 88.7, significantly lower than the expected 93.3 [12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the year-on-year figure was revised up to 2.7% [12] Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes the November ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 1, and the November ISM Services PMI on December 3 [14] - In the Eurozone, the October unemployment rate and November CPI preliminary value are set to be released on December 2 [14] Group 3: Weekly Economic Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) decreased to 2.1% from 2.33% in the previous week, indicating a slight economic slowdown [17] - Conversely, Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) increased to 0.23%, showing continued economic recovery [17] Group 4: Demand Insights - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth slightly declined to 5.9% from 6.1% in the previous week [20] - Global flight numbers showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, down from 8.5% the previous week [22] - The US mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan decreased to 6.23% from 6.26% [25] Group 5: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 216,000, better than the expected 225,000 [28] - Continuing claims rose to 1.96 million, up from a previous value of 1.953 million [29] Group 6: Price Trends - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1.3% [30] - US gasoline retail prices slightly decreased to $2.94 per gallon, down 0.1% from the previous week [30] Group 7: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.629 [32] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved slightly, with swap points for USD/JPY and USD/EUR increasing [34] - Long-term bond spreads narrowed, with the 10-year bond spread between Italy and Germany decreasing to 71.4 basis points [36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions in the US and Europe, highlighting mixed signals in various economic indicators, with a tightening financial environment and stable consumer demand [2][4]. Economic Activity - The US WEI index shows a decrease, with the latest value at 2, down from 2.27 the previous week [5][15]. - The German WAI index has increased to approximately 0.18, up from 0.08 the previous week [5][15]. Consumer Demand - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth has slightly rebounded to 5.9%, with a four-week moving average of 5.45% [19]. - Mortgage rates in the US remain stable, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.24% [21]. Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index is at 302.35, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous week [25]. - US gasoline prices have rebounded slightly to $2.93 per gallon, up 1% from the previous week [25]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe are tightening, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.511, down from 0.514 the previous week [30]. - Offshore dollar liquidity is tightening, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -25.8 basis points [33]. - Credit spreads for US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds have widened, with high-yield spreads at 2.91 basis points [36]. Interest Rate Spreads - The 10-year US-Japan and US-Europe bond spreads have narrowed, with the US-Japan spread at 240.5 basis points [38]. - The Italian-German bond spread has also narrowed to 75.5 basis points [38].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of recent economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in manufacturing, consumer confidence, and housing sales, which indicate mixed economic signals across these regions [4][10][11]. Group 1: US Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations with a preliminary value of 52.3, compared to an expected 49.9 and a previous value of 50.2 [4][10]. - April existing home sales were below expectations at an annualized rate of 4 million units, while new home sales were better than expected at 743,000 units, revised down from 724,000 units [4][10]. - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for April matched expectations with a month-on-month change of -1%, revised from -0.7% to -0.8% [4][10]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone slightly beat expectations at 49.4, compared to an expected 49.2 and a previous value of 49 [11]. - The consumer confidence index for May recorded -15.2, better than the expected -16 and revised from -16.7 to -16.6 [11]. - April CPI final value met expectations at 2.2% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.7%, revised from a previous value of 2.4% [11]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase to 49, up from a previous value of 48.7, while the services PMI decreased to 50.8 from 52.4 [5]. - Core machinery orders for March significantly exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 13%, compared to an expected decrease of 1.6% [5]. - April CPI was slightly above expectations at 3.6% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.5%, exceeding the expected 3.4% [5]. Group 4: Weekly Economic Indices - The US WEI index fell to 1.9% for the week ending May 17, down from 2.07% and 2.56% in previous weeks [15]. - The German WAI index also declined to -0.29% for the week ending May 18, compared to -0.08% and -0.04% in prior weeks [16]. Group 5: Demand Indicators - US Redbook retail sales showed a slight year-on-year decline to 5.4%, down from 5.8% and 6.9% in previous weeks [17]. - Global flight numbers increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with approximately 236,700 flights executed as of May 23 [20]. - US mortgage rates rose slightly to 6.86% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, up from 6.81% and 6.76% in previous weeks [24]. Group 6: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were slightly better than expected at 227,000, compared to an expectation of 230,000 and a previous value of 229,000 [26]. - Continued claims rose to 1.903 million, up from a previous value of 1.867 million [26]. Group 7: Price Trends - Global commodity prices saw a slight increase, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 0.2% [28]. - US gasoline prices increased to $3.04 per gallon, reflecting a 1.8% rise from the previous week [28]. Group 8: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed a slight tightening, with indices at 0.165 and 1.2 respectively [31]. - The long-term bond yield spread between Italy and Germany narrowed, while the spread between the US and Japan remained stable, and the US and Eurozone spread widened [37].

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of key economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, and inflation metrics, which are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities [5][6][11]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released this week includes the March preliminary PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, as well as various consumer confidence indices and housing data [2][3][4][12][13]. Group 2: Recent Economic Data and Events Review - In the US, the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate, aligning with market expectations, and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction [5][10]. - February retail sales in the US were below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.6% [5][10]. - Industrial production in the US exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [5][10]. - The US housing market showed resilience with February's existing home sales at an annualized rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing the expected 3.95 million [5][10]. - Eurozone's February CPI was slightly below expectations at 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.6% [6][11]. - Japan's CPI for February was higher than expected at 3.7% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [6][11]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Review - The US economic activity index showed a slight decline, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week of March 15, down from 2.59% the previous week [5][13]. - In Germany, the economic activity index improved, with the WAI index rising to 0.3% [5][13]. - Retail sales in the US showed a minor year-on-year decline, with the Redbook retail sales index at 5.2% [7][16]. - Global flight numbers decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in travel demand [7][19]. - The US mortgage rate remained stable at 6.67%, with a slight decline in mortgage application indices [7][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - Initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations at 223,000, indicating stable employment conditions [7][24]. - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1% [7][27]. - US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.94 per gallon, reflecting minimal fluctuations in fuel costs [7][27]. Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with indices rising to 0.301 and 1.381 respectively [7][29][31]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed signs of easing, with slight narrowing in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][32]. - Long-term bond yield spreads indicated a narrowing between US and Japanese bonds, while spreads between US and Eurozone bonds widened [7][35].