美国多维度就业高频指标低位趋稳 。 ①新增就业： ADP 周度新增就业低位企稳。 ②失业 ： 初请失业金人数回落（降幅好于预期），续请失业金人数回 升（升幅超预期）。 ③职位空缺 ：职位空缺数低位趋稳。 截至 12 月 12 日， INDEED 职位空缺指数为 104.66 ，较前一周环比 -0.2% 。 文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 报告摘要 （一）过去一周重要经济和数据及事件 美国： 多项经济数据超预期，包括 3 季度实际 GDP 环比折年率以及个人消费环比、 11 月工业产出增速、 12 月里士满联储制造业指数。但消费信心以 及耐用品订单增速不及预期。 欧元区 ： 西班牙 11 月同业 PPI 环比低于前值，意大利 11 月 PPI 环比高于前值。 日本 ： 通胀和工业产值低于预期。 （二）未来一周重要经济数据及事件 重点关注 1 月 2 日下午 17:00 公布的 12 月欧元区制造业 PMI ，以及 22:45 公布的 12 月标普全球美国制造业 PMI 。 （三） 周度经济活动指数 美国 ...

Group 1: Key Economic Data Review - In the US, September durable goods orders were revised up to 3% from 2.9%, with a preliminary month-on-month value of 0.5% [12] - September retail sales increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.6% [12] - The Consumer Confidence Index for November was reported at 88.7, significantly lower than the expected 93.3 [12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the year-on-year figure was revised up to 2.7% [12] Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes the November ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 1, and the November ISM Services PMI on December 3 [14] - In the Eurozone, the October unemployment rate and November CPI preliminary value are set to be released on December 2 [14] Group 3: Weekly Economic Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) decreased to 2.1% from 2.33% in the previous week, indicating a slight economic slowdown [17] - Conversely, Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) increased to 0.23%, showing continued economic recovery [17] Group 4: Demand Insights - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth slightly declined to 5.9% from 6.1% in the previous week [20] - Global flight numbers showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, down from 8.5% the previous week [22] - The US mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan decreased to 6.23% from 6.26% [25] Group 5: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 216,000, better than the expected 225,000 [28] - Continuing claims rose to 1.96 million, up from a previous value of 1.953 million [29] Group 6: Price Trends - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1.3% [30] - US gasoline retail prices slightly decreased to $2.94 per gallon, down 0.1% from the previous week [30] Group 7: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.629 [32] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved slightly, with swap points for USD/JPY and USD/EUR increasing [34] - Long-term bond spreads narrowed, with the 10-year bond spread between Italy and Germany decreasing to 71.4 basis points [36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions in the US and Europe, highlighting mixed signals in various economic indicators, with a tightening financial environment and stable consumer demand [2][4]. Economic Activity - The US WEI index shows a decrease, with the latest value at 2, down from 2.27 the previous week [5][15]. - The German WAI index has increased to approximately 0.18, up from 0.08 the previous week [5][15]. Consumer Demand - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth has slightly rebounded to 5.9%, with a four-week moving average of 5.45% [19]. - Mortgage rates in the US remain stable, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.24% [21]. Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index is at 302.35, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous week [25]. - US gasoline prices have rebounded slightly to $2.93 per gallon, up 1% from the previous week [25]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe are tightening, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.511, down from 0.514 the previous week [30]. - Offshore dollar liquidity is tightening, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -25.8 basis points [33]. - Credit spreads for US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds have widened, with high-yield spreads at 2.91 basis points [36]. Interest Rate Spreads - The 10-year US-Japan and US-Europe bond spreads have narrowed, with the US-Japan spread at 240.5 basis points [38]. - The Italian-German bond spread has also narrowed to 75.5 basis points [38].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of recent economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in manufacturing, consumer confidence, and housing sales, which indicate mixed economic signals across these regions [4][10][11]. Group 1: US Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations with a preliminary value of 52.3, compared to an expected 49.9 and a previous value of 50.2 [4][10]. - April existing home sales were below expectations at an annualized rate of 4 million units, while new home sales were better than expected at 743,000 units, revised down from 724,000 units [4][10]. - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for April matched expectations with a month-on-month change of -1%, revised from -0.7% to -0.8% [4][10]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone slightly beat expectations at 49.4, compared to an expected 49.2 and a previous value of 49 [11]. - The consumer confidence index for May recorded -15.2, better than the expected -16 and revised from -16.7 to -16.6 [11]. - April CPI final value met expectations at 2.2% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.7%, revised from a previous value of 2.4% [11]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase to 49, up from a previous value of 48.7, while the services PMI decreased to 50.8 from 52.4 [5]. - Core machinery orders for March significantly exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 13%, compared to an expected decrease of 1.6% [5]. - April CPI was slightly above expectations at 3.6% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.5%, exceeding the expected 3.4% [5]. Group 4: Weekly Economic Indices - The US WEI index fell to 1.9% for the week ending May 17, down from 2.07% and 2.56% in previous weeks [15]. - The German WAI index also declined to -0.29% for the week ending May 18, compared to -0.08% and -0.04% in prior weeks [16]. Group 5: Demand Indicators - US Redbook retail sales showed a slight year-on-year decline to 5.4%, down from 5.8% and 6.9% in previous weeks [17]. - Global flight numbers increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with approximately 236,700 flights executed as of May 23 [20]. - US mortgage rates rose slightly to 6.86% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, up from 6.81% and 6.76% in previous weeks [24]. Group 6: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were slightly better than expected at 227,000, compared to an expectation of 230,000 and a previous value of 229,000 [26]. - Continued claims rose to 1.903 million, up from a previous value of 1.867 million [26]. Group 7: Price Trends - Global commodity prices saw a slight increase, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 0.2% [28]. - US gasoline prices increased to $3.04 per gallon, reflecting a 1.8% rise from the previous week [28]. Group 8: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed a slight tightening, with indices at 0.165 and 1.2 respectively [31]. - The long-term bond yield spread between Italy and Germany narrowed, while the spread between the US and Japan remained stable, and the US and Eurozone spread widened [37].

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of key economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, and inflation metrics, which are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities [5][6][11]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released this week includes the March preliminary PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, as well as various consumer confidence indices and housing data [2][3][4][12][13]. Group 2: Recent Economic Data and Events Review - In the US, the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate, aligning with market expectations, and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction [5][10]. - February retail sales in the US were below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.6% [5][10]. - Industrial production in the US exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [5][10]. - The US housing market showed resilience with February's existing home sales at an annualized rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing the expected 3.95 million [5][10]. - Eurozone's February CPI was slightly below expectations at 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.6% [6][11]. - Japan's CPI for February was higher than expected at 3.7% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [6][11]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Review - The US economic activity index showed a slight decline, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week of March 15, down from 2.59% the previous week [5][13]. - In Germany, the economic activity index improved, with the WAI index rising to 0.3% [5][13]. - Retail sales in the US showed a minor year-on-year decline, with the Redbook retail sales index at 5.2% [7][16]. - Global flight numbers decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in travel demand [7][19]. - The US mortgage rate remained stable at 6.67%, with a slight decline in mortgage application indices [7][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - Initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations at 223,000, indicating stable employment conditions [7][24]. - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1% [7][27]. - US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.94 per gallon, reflecting minimal fluctuations in fuel costs [7][27]. Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with indices rising to 0.301 and 1.381 respectively [7][29][31]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed signs of easing, with slight narrowing in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][32]. - Long-term bond yield spreads indicated a narrowing between US and Japanese bonds, while spreads between US and Eurozone bonds widened [7][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed signals in economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a resilient service sector in the US, while manufacturing shows signs of weakness. Employment data is also showing marginal deterioration, suggesting potential risks in the economic outlook [2][5][6]. Economic Data Review - US service sector remains strong with the S&P Services PMI at 51, exceeding expectations of 49.7, while ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 50.3, below the expected 50.5 [5][14]. - Eurozone manufacturing, inflation, and employment data exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI at 47.6, CPI at 2.4%, and unemployment rate at 6.2% [6][15]. - Japan's unemployment rate rose to 2.5%, higher than expected, but the service sector PMI remains robust at 53.7 [6][15]. High-Frequency Data - US economic activity index declined to 2.24, while Germany's index increased to around 0.41 [7][17]. - US retail sales growth rebounded to 6.6% year-on-year [8][18]. - Mortgage rates in the US decreased to 6.63%, with mortgage applications rebounding by 14.1% [9][19]. - Initial jobless claims in the US increased to 221,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.897 million [10][21]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone are tightening, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.27 [11][23]. - The US high-yield corporate bond spread widened to 2.91 basis points [25]. - The US-Euro bond yield spread narrowed significantly by approximately 44.9 basis points to 134.5 basis points [12][27].