Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The U.S. does not impose tariffs on electrolytic copper, ending cross - market arbitrage. The traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper tends to rise, so the Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors lightly short the main contract on rallies, and pay attention to certain support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and U.S. copper [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,040, a decrease of 890 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 109,011 hands, a decrease of 119,877 hands compared to the previous day; the open interest was 176,193 hands, an increase of 4,504 hands compared to the previous day; the inventory was 19,622 tons, a decrease of 351 tons compared to the previous day; the average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,565, a decrease of 720 compared to the previous day [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 525, an increase of 170 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount in different regions showed different changes, such as - 20 in Guangzhou, - 110 in North China, and 32 in East China [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 31, 2025 was 9,607, a decrease of 123 compared to the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 138,200 compared to the previous day [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on July 31, 2025 was 4.4305, a decrease of 1.24 compared to the previous day; the total inventory was 257,915, an increase of 4,484 compared to the previous day [2]. News and Events - On July 30, local time, the U.S. White House announced that starting from August 1, it will impose a 20% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and steel - intensive derivative products, while copper input raw materials and copper scrap are not subject to "Section 232" or equivalent tariffs [2]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing the annual rates of consumer - end inflation CPI and PCE in the U.S. to rise in June. The U.S. economy and employment performance are robust, and the inflation pushed up by tariffs may take a long time to show, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and December [2][3]. Production Changes - Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in Chile in 2025 in the second quarter; Newmont's Red Chris copper mine in Canada suspended operations due to an accident; Anglo Asian Mining's Deniri copper mine started trial production; Russia's Nornickel lowered its 2025 copper production forecast; several mines in China and other regions had production - affecting incidents [3]. - Some mines have expansion or new - production plans, such as the second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador under Tongling Nonferrous Metals may be put into production in the second half of 2025; the second - phase expansion project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2025 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Concerns about the rebound in consumer - end inflation have delayed the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts. However, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and geopolitical risks that are difficult to resolve may cause precious metal prices to weaken first and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 773.26 yuan/gram. The trading volume of the active contract was 169,217, and the open interest was 129,822. The inventory was 18,237 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 1.50, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 3.32 [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 8,792.00. The trading volume of the active contract was 469,549, and the open interest was 331,807. The inventory was 37,784,179.63 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price was 3,271.75 dollars/ounce [1]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 954.82, and iShare gold ETF holdings were 441.92 [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8,773.00 (in yuan/ten - gram). The trading volume of the active contract was 469,549, and the open interest was 331,807. The inventory was 1,295,663 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 2.00, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 23.00 [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 36.17. The trading volume of the active contract was 65,468, and the open interest was 24,788. The inventory was - 930,224.12 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price was 37.16 dollars/ounce [1]. - US iShare silver ETF holdings were 14,763, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings were 5,959.97 [1]. Important Information - **Policy and Politics**: - The Trump administration's tax - cut bill was approved by the US Senate. The US House of Representatives' Republican tax bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars and make three corporate tax breaks permanent [1]. - Trump criticized Canada's digital tax, terminated all US - Canada trade negotiations, and threatened to impose new tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary warned of a 301 investigation [1]. - The EU and the US believe they can reach a tariff agreement by the end of July. The US Treasury Secretary hinted that the "tariff deadline" in July might be extended to September 1st [1]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: - The US May consumer - end inflation core PCE annual rate was 2.7%, higher than expected and the previous value. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut times are still in September/October/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects one more rate cut by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May, and the market expects two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of an interest - rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - For investors, it is recommended to mainly lay out long positions on dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 31 - 34 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,300 - 8,500 and the resistance level around 9,500 - 10,000 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to expectations of pre - export rush, and there are disruptions in overseas copper mine production. However, the traditional off - season has weakened downstream demand, causing potential adjustments in Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions when prices rise. Attention should be paid to support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On June 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,610, a decrease of 680 from the previous day; trading volume was 85,090 lots, an increase of 20,954 lots; open interest was 203,273 lots, a decrease of 6,250 lots; inventory was 32,785 tons, a decrease of 588 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 79,075, a decrease of 235 [2] - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 465, an increase of 445; the Guangzhou electrolytic copper spot premium was 60, a decrease of 30; the North China electrolytic copper spot premium was - 150, an increase of 10; the East China electrolytic copper spot premium was - 20, a decrease of 5. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 290, an increase of 210; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 160, an increase of 70; the spread between the second - continuous and the first - continuous contract was 180, a decrease of 10 [2] - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on June 12, 2025, was 9,690.51, an increase of 43.5. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 116,850. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 85.51, an increase of 30.02; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 101.55, an increase of 10.35. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.1121, a decrease of 0.11 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on June 12, 2025, was 4.843, a decrease of 0.051. The total inventory was 193,954 tons, an increase of 3,019 tons [2] 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - The number of new non - farm employment in the US in a certain month was 139,000, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. The annual average hourly wage rate was 3.8%, higher than expected and the previous value. The consumer - end inflation rate in the US in May was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not triggered a rebound in consumer - end inflation, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Ivanhoe Mines' Kanoa - Kakula copper mine's 2025 copper production guidance decreased by 28% to 37 - 420,000 tons due to an earthquake. Multiple mines had production issues, including mechanical failures at Canadian Teds Resources' mines and higher export taxes for Indonesian Freeport. Some mines had planned expansions, such as the second - phase of Tongling Nonferrous' Miraado copper mine and J巨龙 Copper's second - phase expansion. The domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume may increase or decrease in June, and the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume may decrease. Some smelters had production disruptions, while others were expected to resume or start production, which may affect the domestic electrolytic copper production and import volume in June [2][3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper (recycled copper rod) decreased (increased) compared to the previous week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (increased). The production capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of China's copper foil decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. Due to the easing of mutual tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises may change in June [3]