本刊记者/李朝瑞 今年的政府工作报告，把提振消费、扩大内需列为全年十大任务之首，提出要大力提振消费、提高投资 效益，全方位扩大国内需求，还特别强调，要让内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 经济学上常把投资、消费、出口比喻为拉动GDP增长的"三驾马车"，这是对经济增长原理生动形象的表 述。 经济增长的原动力来源于经济中总需求的拉动，其中消费是核心驱动因素。人类历史上，由于对消费水 平不断的期望和追求，刺激了生产力的发展。马克思在分析生产和消费关系时指出，"没有生产，就没 有消费，但是没有消费，也就没有生产，因为没有消费，就没有生产的目的"。而生产又决定消费内容 和形式，例如工业化催生标准化的商品，信息化推动精准、高效的服务，改变人们生活方式和社会文化 形态。"好"的消费，促进"好"的生产，"好"的生产又给消费者带来福祉，可以说消费是经济的"压舱 石"，也是民生福祉的"晴雨表"。在当前经济形势下提振消费又被赋予更加重要的使命，这是由我国经 济进入高质量发展阶段的新形势要求决定的。 首先解读一下关于提振消费的纲领性文件和政策导向。 1. 国家层面出台了一系列重要文件，为提振消费提供了明确的政策指引。2025年3 ...

Core Viewpoint - KPMG emphasizes that the innovative vitality of the consumer market is crucial for driving high-quality economic development in China [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - KPMG points out that consumption will be the core driving force for high-quality economic development [1] - With policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, the domestic circulation is continuously addressing bottlenecks, leading to enhanced consumer vitality [1] - The consumer economy is showing a positive trend towards normalization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant issue of insufficient consumption in China, highlighting that household consumption, final consumption, and service consumption as a percentage of GDP are notably lower compared to OECD countries, with a gap of approximately 25% to 33% [3][4][5]. Group 1: Structural Bias in Consumption - China's consumption deficit is characterized as a "structural bias," with actual final consumption as a percentage of GDP being about 20 percentage points lower than the global average [5][6]. - Four main reasons for this structural bias are identified: low overall level of basic public services, lagging urbanization quality, significant income disparity, and the characteristics of the government balance sheet [5][6][7]. Group 2: Causes of Insufficient Consumption - The low level of basic public services, particularly in education, healthcare, and social security, restricts the growth of development-oriented consumption [6][7]. - Urbanization in China is at approximately 67%, which is lower than the 70%-80% seen in OECD countries at similar development stages, impacting service consumption levels [6][7]. - Income inequality, with a Gini coefficient generally above 0.45, limits the consumption capacity of lower-income groups, while the middle-income group is not large enough to drive demand [6][7]. - The government balance sheet shows a high proportion of government wealth compared to total societal wealth, which affects consumption rates negatively [7]. Group 3: Identifying Key Issues in Consumption - The article stresses the need to focus on service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, housing, social security, and pensions, as the main areas of insufficient consumption [10]. - The urban-rural divide is highlighted, with rural residents facing the most significant consumption gaps, particularly among migrant workers [10][11]. - Structural reforms aimed at urbanization and rural integration are necessary to address these consumption issues [10][11]. Group 4: Addressing Consumption Deficits - The article suggests that addressing consumption deficits requires distinguishing between root causes and derived issues, emphasizing the need to focus on the structural underrepresentation of consumption in terminal demand [12][13]. - It argues for a shift in policy focus from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth, which is essential for sustainable economic development [12][13]. Group 5: Recommendations for Pension Reform - The article proposes reforms to rural residents' pension systems as a short-term measure to boost consumption, suggesting the allocation of stimulus funds to increase pension payouts significantly [16][17]. - It discusses the potential for reallocating state-owned capital to enhance pension funds, which could double or even triple pension levels, thereby increasing consumption capacity among low-income groups [17][18]. - The goal is to raise rural pension levels to around 600-1000 yuan over five years, which could lead to substantial increases in direct consumption and overall GDP growth [19][20].