2026 年度策略报告 光期研究 2026 年度宏观金融 策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 2026 年度策略报告 目录 | 宏观：顺势而上 3 | | --- | | 大类资产：财政与货币组合发力 26 | | 国债期货：利空因素渐增，债牛预期松动 44 | | 股指期货：新质生产力仍是核心驱动 66 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 2026 年度策略报告 宏观：顺势而上 研究员：于洁 年报摘要： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 3 ⚫ 经济总量：承上启下，兼顾短期托底和长远规划。考虑到中国经济在未 来十年将面临劳动力供给趋缓、资本边际效率下降以及全要素生产率 （TFP）增速放缓等结构性约束，潜在增长率可能逐年回落。为了更好 的衔接 2035 年远景目标，预计"十五五"开局前三年，GDP 增速目标 设在 5%左右。 ⚫ 经济结构：革故鼎新，提高消费率和科技自立自强。"十五五"《建议》 提出"居民消费率明显提高"目标，针对消费率偏低 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the launch of the SOL China Consumption Trend ETF by Shinhan Asset Management in collaboration with Solactive, aimed at capturing growth in the Chinese consumer market [1][4] - The ETF tracks the Solactive-KEDI China Consumption Trend Index, which focuses on the growth dynamics of the consumer market in mainland China and Hong Kong [1][4] - The index is designed to select and track the top ten consumer or consumer staples companies listed in Hong Kong based on liquidity and growth, with a minimum rolling sales growth rate of 10% [2][3] Group 2 - The index composition includes companies such as 361 Degrees International, Alibaba Pictures, Anta Sports, and others, reflecting a diverse range of sectors including retail, dining, and entertainment [3] - The ETF is set to be listed on the Korean Exchange on November 25, 2025, highlighting the importance of domestic consumption in China's economic transition from export-driven to consumption-driven growth [4][5] - The ETF is positioned as the only "new consumption" ETF in Korea, providing investors with exclusive access to the emerging Chinese consumer market [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - South Korean asset management firm Shinhan Asset Management has launched the SOL China Consumption Trend ETF, which tracks the Solactive-KEDI China Consumption Index to capture growth in the consumer markets of mainland China and Hong Kong [1][5] - The ETF is set to be listed on the Korean Exchange on November 25, 2025, highlighting the importance of domestic consumption in China and the structural shift from export-driven growth to consumption-driven economy [5] Group 2: Index Composition and Methodology - The Solactive-KEDI China Consumption Index selects and tracks the top ten consumer discretionary or staples companies listed in Hong Kong based on liquidity and growth, including sectors like retail, dining, and entertainment [2][3] - Eligible constituents must have a rolling twelve-month sales growth rate of at least 10%, with the scoring based 30% on market capitalization and 70% on sales growth rate [2][3] Group 3: Current Index Constituents - As of now, the index includes companies such as 361 Degrees International Ltd, Alibaba Pictures Group Ltd, Anta Sports Products Ltd, and others, reflecting a diverse range of consumer sectors [4] Group 4: Investment Trends - In the past month, South Korean investors have shown significant interest in Chinese stocks, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and electric vehicles, with net purchases amounting to approximately $46.32 million in the Global X China Semiconductor ETF [6][8] - Cumulatively, since the beginning of 2025, South Korean investors have engaged in transactions totaling $10.32 billion in Hong Kong and A-shares, making China the second most favored overseas market after the United States [8]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as the top priority for the year, aiming to make domestic demand the main driver of economic growth and stability [1]. Policy Framework - A series of important documents have been issued at the national level to provide clear policy guidance for boosting consumption, with the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" being the most significant, outlining seven major actions [2]. - The financial policy aspect includes directives from the National Financial Supervision Administration to develop consumer finance, enhancing financial products and services to support consumption [2][3]. Systematic Layout - The current policy framework for boosting consumption is characterized by three core aspects: the linkage between income growth and consumption boost, the emphasis on coordinated efforts from both supply and demand sides, and the critical role of financial support [3][4]. Economic Significance - From a macroeconomic perspective, consumption is increasingly recognized for its foundational role in economic growth, as highlighted in the 2025 government work report [5]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in China are projected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a significant slowdown compared to pre-pandemic levels [5]. - The transition from investment-driven to consumption-driven economic growth is essential, especially as traditional infrastructure investment peaks [5]. Consumer Demand and Supply - The demand for high-quality consumer products is directly linked to the improvement of living standards, with China being the second-largest consumer market globally [6]. - The diversification of consumer needs necessitates an optimized supply side to meet the evolving demands of consumers [7]. Long-term Strategy - The policies aimed at boosting consumption are primarily long-term in nature, focusing on sustainable development rather than short-term spikes in consumption [7]. - A favorable consumption environment is crucial, requiring a reliable consumer protection system, transparent financial support, and diverse supply chains [8][9][10]. Income Growth Mechanism - The "Have Incomes, Have Expenditures" concept emphasizes that consumption growth must be based on income increases, with specific measures to promote wage growth and diversify income sources [11][12]. - The plan includes initiatives to stabilize the stock and real estate markets to enhance household wealth and consumer confidence [12]. - Systematic improvements in rural income are also highlighted as essential for boosting overall consumption [13]. Employment and Social Security - Enhancing employment quality is fundamental to ensuring consumer spending capacity, with various measures proposed to stabilize and increase job opportunities [14]. - Social security improvements are also critical, aiming to reduce household burdens and increase disposable income, particularly for low-income groups [14].

Core Viewpoint - KPMG emphasizes that the innovative vitality of the consumer market is crucial for driving high-quality economic development in China [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - KPMG points out that consumption will be the core driving force for high-quality economic development [1] - With policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, the domestic circulation is continuously addressing bottlenecks, leading to enhanced consumer vitality [1] - The consumer economy is showing a positive trend towards normalization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant issue of insufficient consumption in China, highlighting that household consumption, final consumption, and service consumption as a percentage of GDP are notably lower compared to OECD countries, with a gap of approximately 25% to 33% [3][4][5]. Group 1: Structural Bias in Consumption - China's consumption deficit is characterized as a "structural bias," with actual final consumption as a percentage of GDP being about 20 percentage points lower than the global average [5][6]. - Four main reasons for this structural bias are identified: low overall level of basic public services, lagging urbanization quality, significant income disparity, and the characteristics of the government balance sheet [5][6][7]. Group 2: Causes of Insufficient Consumption - The low level of basic public services, particularly in education, healthcare, and social security, restricts the growth of development-oriented consumption [6][7]. - Urbanization in China is at approximately 67%, which is lower than the 70%-80% seen in OECD countries at similar development stages, impacting service consumption levels [6][7]. - Income inequality, with a Gini coefficient generally above 0.45, limits the consumption capacity of lower-income groups, while the middle-income group is not large enough to drive demand [6][7]. - The government balance sheet shows a high proportion of government wealth compared to total societal wealth, which affects consumption rates negatively [7]. Group 3: Identifying Key Issues in Consumption - The article stresses the need to focus on service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, housing, social security, and pensions, as the main areas of insufficient consumption [10]. - The urban-rural divide is highlighted, with rural residents facing the most significant consumption gaps, particularly among migrant workers [10][11]. - Structural reforms aimed at urbanization and rural integration are necessary to address these consumption issues [10][11]. Group 4: Addressing Consumption Deficits - The article suggests that addressing consumption deficits requires distinguishing between root causes and derived issues, emphasizing the need to focus on the structural underrepresentation of consumption in terminal demand [12][13]. - It argues for a shift in policy focus from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth, which is essential for sustainable economic development [12][13]. Group 5: Recommendations for Pension Reform - The article proposes reforms to rural residents' pension systems as a short-term measure to boost consumption, suggesting the allocation of stimulus funds to increase pension payouts significantly [16][17]. - It discusses the potential for reallocating state-owned capital to enhance pension funds, which could double or even triple pension levels, thereby increasing consumption capacity among low-income groups [17][18]. - The goal is to raise rural pension levels to around 600-1000 yuan over five years, which could lead to substantial increases in direct consumption and overall GDP growth [19][20].