Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2026, with new economic drivers emerging to offset the drag from the real estate sector [217][218]. - Globally, the policy in 2026 will revolve around the shift of policy focus, the return of fiscal expansion, and the maintenance of monetary easing, forming a new pattern of "policy re - balance" [94]. - In the bond market, the bullish expectation is loosening in 2026. With the reasonable and abundant capital, the stable economy, the moderate rise of inflation, and the cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts, the bond market is likely to remain range - bound [176][270][271]. - In the stock index futures market, new quality productive forces will still be the core driver. The technology theme market may continue, and if the PPI turns positive in the second half of 2026, the style switch between large - and small - cap stocks may occur [282]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro: Go with the Trend - **Economic Aggregate**: Considering the structural constraints in the next decade, China's potential economic growth rate may decline year by year. To connect with the 2035 vision, the GDP growth target is expected to be set at around 5% in the first three years of the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][8]. - **Economic Structure** - **Consumption**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate. China's household consumption rate has room for improvement, and the government will take measures such as income increase, burden reduction, and supply - side reform to boost consumption [13][24]. - **Industry**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes enhancing scientific and technological self - reliance. New policies will promote high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and the development of new quality productive forces [30]. - **Demand Growth**: The driving force of economic growth is shifting from investment to consumption. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the central government needs to increase fiscal leverage to solve the problems in real estate inventory reduction. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment need to maintain reasonable growth and improve efficiency [32][35]. - **Inflation**: With demand - side stimulus for consumption, supply - side "anti - involution" to improve efficiency, and the central bank's support for a reasonable rise in prices, inflation is expected to bottom out and rise in 2026 [7][89]. Big - Category Assets: Fiscal and Monetary Combinations Take Effect - **Global Macro Review**: In 2025, the global macro - economy fluctuated sharply under the influence of "Trump Policy 2.0". In 2026, the global policy will focus on the shift of policy focus, fiscal expansion, and monetary easing [95][103]. - **Overseas Outlook** - **United States**: In 2026, the policy focus will shift to domestic issues. The economy is expected to recover moderately, with potential interest - rate cuts. However, fiscal sustainability remains a concern [120][133]. - **Eurozone**: In 2026, the ECB's significant interest - rate cuts may end. The eurozone economy will rely on fiscal expansion and external investment, and the growth rate is expected to be around 1.2% [134][135]. - **Japan**: In 2026, Japan will implement a combination of fiscal expansion and moderate interest - rate hikes. If it can balance fiscal and monetary policies, the economy may achieve a stable growth [140][141]. - **2026 Big - Category Assets Outlook**: In 2026, with the decline of global economic policy uncertainty, the risk appetite of the market is likely to continue to recover. Risk assets such as stocks may rise, while the prices of safe - haven assets may adjust. The demand for commodities will be affected by the inventory cycle and fiscal stimulus [161]. Treasury Bond Futures: Increasingly Negative Factors, Shaky Bullish Expectations - **2025 Market Review**: In 2025, the bond market showed a sideways and volatile trend, influenced by factors such as tight funds, tariff disturbances, the rise of risk appetite due to "anti - involution", and the decline of interest - rate cut expectations [176][183]. - **2026 Market Analysis Logic** - **Capital**: The central bank's liquidity management system will ensure that the capital in 2026 remains reasonably abundant [233][235]. - **Economy**: The macro - policy will continue to support stable growth, and the economy will remain stable [199][270]. - **Inflation**: With the promotion of consumption and "anti - involution" policies, CPI is expected to rise moderately, and the decline of PPI is expected to narrow [262][265]. - **Monetary Policy**: The moderately loose monetary policy will continue, but interest - rate cuts will be more cautious, with an expected cut range of 10 - 20BP in 2026 [242]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will remain active in 2026, with an expected narrow - sense budget deficit rate of around 4% and a broad - sense budget deficit rate of 8.3% [258][259]. - **Market Outlook**: In 2026, the bond market is likely to remain range - bound. The reasonable and abundant capital is a support, while the stable economy, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts pose constraints [271][273]. Stock Index Futures: New Quality Productive Forces Remain the Core Driver - **2025 Market Review**: In 2025, the A - share market rose significantly, mainly driven by the technology theme. The overseas and domestic markets both contributed to the rise, but the cycle and consumption sectors were still under pressure [282][283][294]. - **2026 Market Outlook** - **Global Technology Market**: There are debates about whether the current technology market has a bubble. However, the upstream manufacturing enterprises have stable performance expectations, the Fed is likely to continue to cut interest rates in the first quarter, and the Chinese technology industry also has fundamental support [337][346][350]. - **Style Switch**: The style switch from growth to value is not likely to occur in the first half of 2026. If the PPI turns positive in the second half of 2026, the ROE of the stock index may stabilize and rise, and the style switch may happen [358][367][368]. - **Futures and Options Market Features** - **Basis**: The basis of small - cap index futures is at a high level, and the roll - over cost has also increased. The basis of large - cap index futures is mainly affected by dividends [372]. - **Volatility**: The historical and implied volatilities of the index were high in 2025. At the beginning of 2026, strategies for increasing volatility should be considered [383]. - **Market Strategies**: In 2026, the excess returns of index - enhancement and neutral strategies are relatively optimistic, but attention should be paid to the potential beta retracement [389].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the launch of the SOL China Consumption Trend ETF by Shinhan Asset Management in collaboration with Solactive, aimed at capturing growth in the Chinese consumer market [1][4] - The ETF tracks the Solactive-KEDI China Consumption Trend Index, which focuses on the growth dynamics of the consumer market in mainland China and Hong Kong [1][4] - The index is designed to select and track the top ten consumer or consumer staples companies listed in Hong Kong based on liquidity and growth, with a minimum rolling sales growth rate of 10% [2][3] Group 2 - The index composition includes companies such as 361 Degrees International, Alibaba Pictures, Anta Sports, and others, reflecting a diverse range of sectors including retail, dining, and entertainment [3] - The ETF is set to be listed on the Korean Exchange on November 25, 2025, highlighting the importance of domestic consumption in China's economic transition from export-driven to consumption-driven growth [4][5] - The ETF is positioned as the only "new consumption" ETF in Korea, providing investors with exclusive access to the emerging Chinese consumer market [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - South Korean asset management firm Shinhan Asset Management has launched the SOL China Consumption Trend ETF, which tracks the Solactive-KEDI China Consumption Index to capture growth in the consumer markets of mainland China and Hong Kong [1][5] - The ETF is set to be listed on the Korean Exchange on November 25, 2025, highlighting the importance of domestic consumption in China and the structural shift from export-driven growth to consumption-driven economy [5] Group 2: Index Composition and Methodology - The Solactive-KEDI China Consumption Index selects and tracks the top ten consumer discretionary or staples companies listed in Hong Kong based on liquidity and growth, including sectors like retail, dining, and entertainment [2][3] - Eligible constituents must have a rolling twelve-month sales growth rate of at least 10%, with the scoring based 30% on market capitalization and 70% on sales growth rate [2][3] Group 3: Current Index Constituents - As of now, the index includes companies such as 361 Degrees International Ltd, Alibaba Pictures Group Ltd, Anta Sports Products Ltd, and others, reflecting a diverse range of consumer sectors [4] Group 4: Investment Trends - In the past month, South Korean investors have shown significant interest in Chinese stocks, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and electric vehicles, with net purchases amounting to approximately $46.32 million in the Global X China Semiconductor ETF [6][8] - Cumulatively, since the beginning of 2025, South Korean investors have engaged in transactions totaling $10.32 billion in Hong Kong and A-shares, making China the second most favored overseas market after the United States [8]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as the top priority for the year, aiming to make domestic demand the main driver of economic growth and stability [1]. Policy Framework - A series of important documents have been issued at the national level to provide clear policy guidance for boosting consumption, with the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" being the most significant, outlining seven major actions [2]. - The financial policy aspect includes directives from the National Financial Supervision Administration to develop consumer finance, enhancing financial products and services to support consumption [2][3]. Systematic Layout - The current policy framework for boosting consumption is characterized by three core aspects: the linkage between income growth and consumption boost, the emphasis on coordinated efforts from both supply and demand sides, and the critical role of financial support [3][4]. Economic Significance - From a macroeconomic perspective, consumption is increasingly recognized for its foundational role in economic growth, as highlighted in the 2025 government work report [5]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in China are projected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a significant slowdown compared to pre-pandemic levels [5]. - The transition from investment-driven to consumption-driven economic growth is essential, especially as traditional infrastructure investment peaks [5]. Consumer Demand and Supply - The demand for high-quality consumer products is directly linked to the improvement of living standards, with China being the second-largest consumer market globally [6]. - The diversification of consumer needs necessitates an optimized supply side to meet the evolving demands of consumers [7]. Long-term Strategy - The policies aimed at boosting consumption are primarily long-term in nature, focusing on sustainable development rather than short-term spikes in consumption [7]. - A favorable consumption environment is crucial, requiring a reliable consumer protection system, transparent financial support, and diverse supply chains [8][9][10]. Income Growth Mechanism - The "Have Incomes, Have Expenditures" concept emphasizes that consumption growth must be based on income increases, with specific measures to promote wage growth and diversify income sources [11][12]. - The plan includes initiatives to stabilize the stock and real estate markets to enhance household wealth and consumer confidence [12]. - Systematic improvements in rural income are also highlighted as essential for boosting overall consumption [13]. Employment and Social Security - Enhancing employment quality is fundamental to ensuring consumer spending capacity, with various measures proposed to stabilize and increase job opportunities [14]. - Social security improvements are also critical, aiming to reduce household burdens and increase disposable income, particularly for low-income groups [14].

Core Viewpoint - KPMG emphasizes that the innovative vitality of the consumer market is crucial for driving high-quality economic development in China [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - KPMG points out that consumption will be the core driving force for high-quality economic development [1] - With policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, the domestic circulation is continuously addressing bottlenecks, leading to enhanced consumer vitality [1] - The consumer economy is showing a positive trend towards normalization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant issue of insufficient consumption in China, highlighting that household consumption, final consumption, and service consumption as a percentage of GDP are notably lower compared to OECD countries, with a gap of approximately 25% to 33% [3][4][5]. Group 1: Structural Bias in Consumption - China's consumption deficit is characterized as a "structural bias," with actual final consumption as a percentage of GDP being about 20 percentage points lower than the global average [5][6]. - Four main reasons for this structural bias are identified: low overall level of basic public services, lagging urbanization quality, significant income disparity, and the characteristics of the government balance sheet [5][6][7]. Group 2: Causes of Insufficient Consumption - The low level of basic public services, particularly in education, healthcare, and social security, restricts the growth of development-oriented consumption [6][7]. - Urbanization in China is at approximately 67%, which is lower than the 70%-80% seen in OECD countries at similar development stages, impacting service consumption levels [6][7]. - Income inequality, with a Gini coefficient generally above 0.45, limits the consumption capacity of lower-income groups, while the middle-income group is not large enough to drive demand [6][7]. - The government balance sheet shows a high proportion of government wealth compared to total societal wealth, which affects consumption rates negatively [7]. Group 3: Identifying Key Issues in Consumption - The article stresses the need to focus on service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, housing, social security, and pensions, as the main areas of insufficient consumption [10]. - The urban-rural divide is highlighted, with rural residents facing the most significant consumption gaps, particularly among migrant workers [10][11]. - Structural reforms aimed at urbanization and rural integration are necessary to address these consumption issues [10][11]. Group 4: Addressing Consumption Deficits - The article suggests that addressing consumption deficits requires distinguishing between root causes and derived issues, emphasizing the need to focus on the structural underrepresentation of consumption in terminal demand [12][13]. - It argues for a shift in policy focus from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth, which is essential for sustainable economic development [12][13]. Group 5: Recommendations for Pension Reform - The article proposes reforms to rural residents' pension systems as a short-term measure to boost consumption, suggesting the allocation of stimulus funds to increase pension payouts significantly [16][17]. - It discusses the potential for reallocating state-owned capital to enhance pension funds, which could double or even triple pension levels, thereby increasing consumption capacity among low-income groups [17][18]. - The goal is to raise rural pension levels to around 600-1000 yuan over five years, which could lead to substantial increases in direct consumption and overall GDP growth [19][20].