随着全球宏观经济与市场动态日益复杂，投资者正面临一系列关键的策略抉择。 高盛Marquee市场团队在其最新分析中指出，尽管部分市场出现了显著波动，但投资者在追逐机会时需保持谨慎。该行认为，当前并非买入印度股票的良机， 日本股市面临短期回调压力，而一个更核心的战略问题是，是否应该开始考虑构建一个低配美国科技股的全球投资组合。 在亚洲市场，高盛对两大热点给出了冷静判断。对于印度市场，尽管自去年10月高盛下调评级以来，MSCI印度指数已大幅跑输全球指数近20%，但该行认为 其估值依然过高，抄底时机未到。同时，创下历史新高的日本东证指数（Topix）技术上已现超买，且面临历史上的季节性疲软，短期回调风险不容忽视。 在美国，一个更具挑战性的问题浮出水面：是否应该低配过去五年主导全球市场的科技巨头？高盛市场团队认为，在市场广度极度收窄的背景下，这是一个所 有投资者都应思考的问题。与此同时，尽管美国经济数据显示出"失速"迹象，但高盛经济学家团队预计美联储将坚持每次降息25个基点的渐进路径，而非市场 部分人士猜测的大幅降息。 印度市场：下跌但非买入时机 高盛Marquee市场团队指出，尽管印度市场看似已接近"恐慌顶点"，但现 ...

Group 1 - The UK economy is currently facing significant challenges, with policymakers struggling between inflation control and stimulating growth [2][3][4] - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in August, reducing the benchmark rate from 4.25% to 4% [2][3] - Persistent inflationary pressures, such as rising average wages and energy prices, complicate the decision-making process for the Bank of England [2][4][6] Group 2 - The fiscal framework established by Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under strain due to high inflation-linked debt interest costs, which are consuming 4.5% of the UK's GDP [19][20] - The government's commitment to not borrowing for day-to-day expenses is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain amid disappointing economic data and low tax revenues [3][21][22] - The potential for tax increases appears to be the only viable option for the government, despite the unpopularity of such measures [3][26][30] Group 3 - The UK economy is experiencing a dual pressure from stubborn inflation and weak growth, with April's economic contraction of 0.4% highlighting the severity of the situation [9][10] - The Bank of England's cautious approach to interest rate cuts reflects a lack of confidence in controlling inflation while supporting economic growth [12][14][44] - The disconnect between monetary policy and fiscal policy is creating a challenging environment, where efforts to stimulate demand through lower interest rates may be offset by fiscal tightening [31][32][33] Group 4 - Structural issues, such as stagnant productivity and low investment, are exacerbating the UK's economic challenges, with long-term solutions needed beyond short-term policy adjustments [39][50] - The reliance on high-end service exports makes the UK economy vulnerable to global trade disruptions, particularly in the context of rising protectionism [42] - The need for significant structural reforms is emphasized, focusing on supply-side improvements to enhance long-term productivity and competitiveness [50][51]