人民财讯1月11日电，随着商品市场走强，债市增量资金流入正在放缓。当前，市场预期更敏感的30年 期国债期货，主力2603合约价格在过去一周，盘中创下2024年10月份以来最低点。低利率环境下资产配 置结构调整，股市跷跷板效应明显，多家债券私募机构表示，债市增量资金流入或将进一步放缓。 ...

王爷说财经讯：历史级大场面来了！ 最近美元跌得稀里哗啦，黄金、白银、铜、铂金居然全破了历史新高！ 为什么全球资本疯狂抛弃美元？为什么连铜这种工业金属都涨疯了？ 发生了什么？是金融危机前兆，还是财富重新洗牌？ 01、历史第一次！贵金属齐涨！ 咱们先把事儿说清楚，今天全球金融圈彻底炸锅了！ 相反，伦敦现货黄金直接冲破4600美元/盎司，白银飙到74美元/盎司，连工业属性的铜和铂金都跟着刷新纪录，这是历史上第一次四大贵金属同时登顶。 你猜怎么着？咱们国内金店的足金饰品都涨到1420元/克了，前几天买金镯子的朋友，一天就赚了小几千。 02、发生了什么？ 12月26日消息，美元指数单日暴跌2.3%，跌破90关口，创下年内最大跌幅； 更关键的是，大家对美元的信心越来越不足了！ 美国的债务都快压垮自己了，债务占GDP比重突破123%，光利息支出就占财政收入的15%。以前大家觉得美元是硬通货，现在发现它能被随便冻结、随 便印，全球央行都在疯狂买黄金避险，这两年年均增持超1000吨。 最后一个就是地缘冲突了，特别是美国和委内瑞拉的地缘冲突升级，大家更想把钱换成黄金这种"硬疙瘩"保命。 所以啊，这次不是简单的市场波动，而是全球资 ...

今年以来，"宝宝类"基金收益率持续走低。据Wind数据，截至12月16日，941只有统计数据的货币基金 七日年化收益率中位数为1.24%。其中，102只货币基金七日年化跌至1%以下，还有300余只货币基金七 日年化在1%至1.2%之间。 不过，规模最大的天弘余额宝基金仍坚守在1%以上。截至12月16日，天弘余额宝七日年化1.014%，较 上周小幅回升。此前，该基金七日年化一度跌至1.001%，但始终保持在1%以上。 （来源：中证金牛座） 不过，即使货币基金收益率处于长期下行趋势，但受活期存款收益走低、债券及权益市场双双波动等因 素影响，近期货币基金规模不降反增。据基金业协会数据，截至10月底，货币基金总份额为15.05万亿 份，较9月底增长逾3800万份。 责编:陶纪燕 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 此前，天弘余额宝基金经理在季报中表示，存款搬家的现象对银行在资金端的运用和管理上产生了一些 影响，增加了资金流动所产生的摩擦，增加了备付需求，也使得银行在货币市场的基础货币供应实际上 是下降的，加大了在某些关键时点货币市场利率的波动性。债券市场和股票市场出现了一定跷跷板效 应，而债券市场的调整也带动了同业存单的 ...

今年以来，"宝宝类"基金收益率持续走低。据Wind数据，截至12月16日，941只有统计数据的货币基金 七日年化收益率中位数为1.24%。其中，102只货币基金七日年化跌至1%以下，还有300余只货币基金七 日年化在1%至1.2%之间。 此前，天弘余额宝基金经理在季报中表示，存款搬家的现象对银行在资金端的运用和管理上产生了一些 影响，增加了资金流动所产生的摩擦，增加了备付需求，也使得银行在货币市场的基础货币供应实际上 是下降的，加大了在某些关键时点货币市场利率的波动性。债券市场和股票市场出现了一定跷跷板效 应，而债券市场的调整也带动了同业存单的调整。由于银行在负债端的压力不大，同业存单的调整相对 于债券市场是缓慢且有限的，但随着存量资产的陆续到期，整体收益率仍然呈现下降的走势。 不过，即使货币基金收益率处于长期下行趋势，但受活期存款收益走低、债券及权益市场双双波动等因 素影响，近期货币基金规模不降反增。据基金业协会数据，截至10月底，货币基金总份额为15.05万亿 份，较9月底增长逾3800万份。 不过，规模最大的天弘余额宝基金仍坚守在1%以上。截至12月16日，天弘余额宝七日年化1.014%，较 上周小幅回 ...

今年以来，"宝宝类"基金收益率持续走低。据Wind数据，截至12月16日，941只有统计数据的货币基金 七日年化收益率中位数为1.24%。其中，102只货币基金七日年化跌至1%以下，还有300余只货币基金七 日年化在1%至1.2%之间。 不过，规模最大的天弘余额宝基金仍坚守在1%以上。截至12月16日，天弘余额宝七日年化1.014%，较 上周小幅回升。此前，该基金七日年化一度跌至1.001%，但始终保持在1%以上。 不过，规模最大的天弘余额宝基金仍坚守在1%以上。截至12月16日，天弘余额宝七日年化1.014%，较 上周小幅回升。此前，该基金七日年化一度跌至1.001%，但始终保持在1%以上。 此前，天弘余额宝基金经理在季报中表示，存款搬家的现象对银行在资金端的运用和管理上产生了一些 影响，增加了资金流动所产生的摩擦，增加了备付需求，也使得银行在货币市场的基础货币供应实际上 是下降的，加大了在某些关键时点货币市场利率的波动性。债券市场和股票市场出现了一定跷跷板效 应，而债券市场的调整也带动了同业存单的调整。由于银行在负债端的压力不大，同业存单的调整相对 于债券市场是缓慢且有限的，但随着存量资产的陆续到期，整体 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% to 3878.00 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, the ChiNext Index down 1.12%, and the STAR Market Index down 0.95% [1][10] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 16699.62 billion yuan, an increase of about 765.32 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10] - The market showed a low risk appetite, with 1443 stocks rising and 3876 stocks falling [1][10] Sector Performance - Dividend sectors performed well today, with transportation, non-ferrous metals, oil, mining, and coal showing positive results [1][10] - High-volatility sectors, including gaming, film and television, new energy vehicles, and computers, underperformed [1][10] - The market style showed that small-cap stocks lagged behind large-cap stocks, and growth stocks underperformed value stocks [1][10] Economic Outlook - The current macroeconomic state is characterized by a transition between old and new growth drivers, with a "K" shaped economic recovery [2][10] - Three sectors with growth potential identified are technology (AI revolution, policy support, overseas mapping), upstream anti-involution (solar, lithium batteries), and exports (global manufacturing recovery, positive overseas fiscal expectations) [2][10] - The technology and upstream sectors are still on an upward trend but carry risks due to previous significant gains [2][10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation strategy, utilizing the "seesaw effect" to hedge daily volatility and optimize holding experiences [10] - Suggested ETFs for potential opportunities include non-ferrous metals 60 ETF (159881), mining ETF (561330), chemical leading ETF (516220), and industrial mother machine ETF (159667) [2][10] - As a hedging option, cash flow ETF (159399) is recommended [2][10] Bond Market Insights - The recent bond market environment shows a divergence between macro conditions and trading sentiment, with a weak nominal growth rate and a low interest rate environment supported by macro realities [7][16] - The People's Bank of China announced the purchase and sale of 50 billion yuan in government bonds, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 2.40 basis points to 2.23% [14][16] - Financial institutions maintain a moderately optimistic outlook for the bond market in December, with a downward trend in funding rates observed since November [16][8]

Summary of Conference Call on Government Bond Trading Resumption Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the government bond market and its dynamics in the context of monetary policy and market expectations. Key Points and Arguments Government Bond Trading Resumption - The resumption of government bond trading in Q4 is not urgently needed as the central bank has other liquidity tools like MLF and OMO available [1][2][4] - The market has already priced in a 5 basis point benefit from the resumption, with actual results expected to be between 4 to 6 basis points [1][6] - The decision to resume trading in Q4 rather than September may be due to uncertainties in policy timing and coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities [4] Market Expectations and Trends - The bond market is expected to exhibit a healthy state of bidirectional fluctuations in 2025, with periods of both increases and decreases [5] - The anticipated yield for the ten-year government bond by the end of the year is around 1.75%, with no-tax bonds expected to be between 1.65% and 1.70% [3][15] - The overall impact of the government bond trading policy is seen as neutral, but it may push the market towards a more favorable trading direction [6] Future Bond Market Dynamics - Over the next few years, the volume of government bond trading is expected to gradually increase, replacing the need for reserve requirement cuts [7] - Large banks are primarily purchasing short-term bonds, with a balanced approach towards medium to long-term bonds [8] - The bond market is predicted to perform better in Q4 compared to Q3, with opportunities for long-duration bond trading [9] Interaction Between Stock and Bond Markets - There exists a certain degree of a seesaw effect between the stock and bond markets, but it is not absolute [10] - The transfer of household deposits to the stock market has limited impact on the bond market, with non-bank investors being the main source of fund diversion [10] Local Government Bond Rates - Future local government bond rates are expected to be around 2.4% to 2.5%, which may exert pressure on the equity market by setting a ceiling on bond yields [11] Fund Redemption Fee Policy - The impact of the fund redemption fee policy is limited, as funds have not truly exited the bond market but have instead been reinvested [12] Trade Friction and Market Impact - Trade friction has been partially priced into the market, and the resumption of government bond trading is seen as a clear trend despite ongoing pressures [14] Predictions for Q4 and Beyond - The bond market is expected to experience a rebound and correction in Q4, with specific yield targets set for various bonds by year-end [15] Other Important Insights - The central bank may take measures to balance liquidity if irrational downward movements occur in the bond market [4] - The transparency of government bond trading operations is expected to lead to more rational market reactions [6]

Group 1 - The public fund report for Q3 2025 shows over 300 bond funds have disclosed their performance, with 157 funds achieving net value growth [1] - The top-performing fund, Taixin Huiying Bond A, recorded a net value growth rate of 28.01%, while its C share only achieved 7.99%, indicating a significant performance disparity [1] - The bond market experienced notable adjustments in Q3 due to factors such as improved risk appetite among investors, stable macroeconomic conditions, and low bond yields reducing the attractiveness of fixed-income products [1] Group 2 - Several convertible bond funds achieved high net value growth rates, with five out of the top seven funds being convertible bond funds, including Rongtong Convertible Bond A and Jianxin Convertible Bond A [2] - The market's risk appetite has significantly increased, leading to a "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds, with convertible bonds benefiting from the rising stock market, particularly in the technology sector [2] - Different fund managers have varied strategies; for instance, Rongtong Convertible Bond actively increased its positions in AI and innovative pharmaceutical sectors, while Changsheng Convertible Bond optimized its industry allocation based on market conditions [2] Group 3 - Wanji Convertible Bond has shifted to a "dual low convertible bond" strategy, maintaining a bond position between 85% and 90%, with plans to increase positions if the market corrects [3] - The bond market is seen as a low-risk option for investors, with recent trends indicating a recovery phase, particularly in the long-term bond segment [3] - Future bond market performance is expected to depend on monetary and fiscal policy combinations, with potential for downward adjustments in interest rates and opportunities in long-term bonds and green bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The high dividend sector in A-shares has shown strong resilience amid market adjustments, indicating a healthy self-regulation mechanism in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since October, the defensive sentiment among market funds has increased significantly, aligning with the performance of high dividend sectors [1] - The "seesaw effect" observed is not a conflict between different sectors but rather a manifestation of healthy market self-regulation, allowing funds to shift reasonably between sectors [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector experienced substantial cumulative gains in the first three quarters, leading to a phase of adjustment in October [1] - The high dividend sector meets the growing demand for defensive investments as the market stabilizes [1]

Core Insights - The recent surge in coal stocks, such as Dayou Energy and Antai Group, is driven by increased heating demand due to a strong cold front, reflecting a broader market trend of "seesaw effect" and "high-cut low" strategies [1][3] - The market operates on three main lines: anti-involution (coal, steel), technology (AI, chips), and infrastructure (new and traditional), with funds rotating between these sectors based on valuation and risk preferences [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "high-cut low" strategy is not conservative but rather an active approach, focusing on reallocating funds to higher value assets [4] - Funds are shifting within sectors, moving from high-valued leaders to low-valued stocks, as seen in the robotics sector where investments are transitioning from core hardware to component manufacturers [6] - Cross-sector switching occurs from high-valuation growth sectors (like semiconductors) to undervalued value sectors (like utilities and energy), with military stocks trading at a 30% discount compared to tech stocks [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Gradual position switching is recommended to avoid volatility, with institutions reducing high-position stocks while gradually increasing low-position stocks [6] - Successful high-low switching relies on proactive positioning rather than reactive following, as evidenced by early investments in coal stocks before the cold front [6] - The emergence of new market leaders often occurs at the intersection of policy direction, fund flow, and market sentiment, as illustrated by the recent interest in cross-strait cooperation stocks [8] Group 3: Risk Management - In the current market environment, a diversified portfolio is crucial, with suggested allocations of 30% in technology, 40% in new energy, and 20% in military sectors to maintain stability during rotations [10] - Strict risk control measures are essential, with guidelines to cut losses if stocks fall below the 120-day moving average or experience a 15% drawdown [10] - The market demonstrates that each adjustment in a bull market presents an opportunity for funds to reposition, emphasizing the importance of strategic entry points rather than chasing hot trends [10]