自2024年"9·24"行情启动以来，银行股无疑是A股市场上表现最亮眼的板块之一。 Wind数据显示，截至今年9月24日收盘，中证银行指数近一年累计涨幅约为24%。在此轮回调前，中证银行指数节节攀升，一度触及8570.76点新高，较去年 9月24日涨超43%。 其间，银行板块发生了多个标志性事件，其一是银行板块A股市值首次突破10万亿元，其二是农业银行A股市值、总市值先后超过工商银行，登顶"市值之 王"，此后工商银行重回"宇宙行"之位。不过，7月以来，市场交易风格变换，银行股逐渐进入震荡回调阶段，板块自高点跌近13%，同期上证指数涨超 10%。 半数涨幅超30%，"市值之王"完成一轮更迭 去年"9·24"行情启动以来，银行板块整体先升后降，但银行间表现分化明显。近一年A股42只银行股全部飘红，股价涨幅最高接近59%，最低在8%左右。 7月以来，随着市场情绪回升和板块轮动，银行股整体陷入回调，但出现一定分化趋势。 Wind数据显示，7月10日阶段性高点以来，中证银行指数已回调近13%。其中，9月以来，中证银行指数跌幅超过5%。 具体看个股表现，7月10日以来超半数银行回调幅度超过10%，光大银行、北京银行跌幅超 ...

Group 1 - In August, government bond futures prices experienced a general decline, with the T2512 contract price dropping by 0.58%, leading to a rise in the 10-year government bond yield to 1.84%, an increase of 14 basis points from the end of July, marking the highest level since March of this year [1] - Domestic industrial production maintained rapid growth in July, with government bond financing remaining high, contributing to a rebound in social financing growth rate to 9%. Both M1 and M2 growth rates also increased, indicating a significant improvement in fund activation and market expectations for economic growth [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high in mid-August, reflecting a "see-saw effect" between bond and equity markets, as funds flowed from bonds and deposits into higher-yielding non-bank sectors, suppressing bond market sentiment and enhancing market risk appetite [1] Group 2 - In August, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 600 billion yuan in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased operations. Additionally, the PBOC intensified open market operations, resulting in a net injection of 11,464 billion yuan through reverse repos [4] - The PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasized the need for a moderately accommodative monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity in the banking system [4][5] - As of the end of August, the total scale of China's bond market exceeded 191.71 trillion yuan, with a net financing amount of 17,571 billion yuan in August, remaining at a high level despite a slight decrease compared to previous months [7]

Market Overview - The market exhibited a "seesaw" effect with high dividend assets performing actively while technology stocks experienced a pullback, leading to declines in companies within the computing power industry [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.21%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.9% [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector rebounded with notable gains in stocks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [2] - The overall performance of the banking sector's mid-year reports showed improvement, with most banks experiencing a rebound in revenue and profit growth, a stable or declining non-performing loan ratio, and a steady provision coverage ratio [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the banking sector is likely to see a rotation and rebound due to solid fundamentals and previous adjustments, with a focus on regional banks and high-dividend stocks [5] Electricity Sector - The electricity sector showed active performance with significant gains in stocks like Jingyuntong and Huaguang New Energy [6] - In July, the total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kWh, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase, with strong demand for electricity [9] - Analysts recommend focusing on leading companies in renewable energy, regional offshore wind power enterprises, and companies involved in the integration of renewable energy and computing power [9]

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to experience weak fluctuations in the short term due to high market risk appetite and the influence of stock market performance on bond market dynamics [1][4] - Recent policies focus on "anti-involution," promoting consumption, and stabilizing expectations, leading to a strong stock market while the bond market remains weak [1][3] - The "seesaw" effect between stocks and bonds is evident, where optimistic economic expectations lead to increased stock allocation and reduced bond allocation, and vice versa [1][2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that there have been four notable "dual bull" markets in stocks and bonds since 2016, typically lasting less than one month and occurring when economic fundamentals remain stable [2] - The current strong stock market is driven by global liquidity easing and a stable domestic economic and policy environment, attracting steady capital inflow [3][4] - The bond market has shown relative resilience due to stable institutional liabilities and controlled redemption pressures, with a strong demand for government bonds despite rising yields [4]

Market Performance - A-shares led global equity markets with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.49% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.85%[4] - The implied volatility of the 50ETF rose to 19.78%, indicating increased market uncertainty[4] - The Dow Jones reached a new high with a gain of 1.53%, while the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.58%[4] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond futures fell by 1.43%, reflecting significant adjustments in the domestic bond market[4] - The negative correlation between stocks and bonds reached a historical high, highlighting the "see-saw effect" in market dynamics[4] Commodity Trends - International commodities showed strength, with Brent crude oil up by 2.14% and COMEX gold rising by 1.02%, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation hedging[4] - Domestic commodity prices generally declined, with the South China Commodity Index down by 0.44%[4] Currency Movements - The US dollar index decreased by 0.13%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.24%[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - For bonds, focus on high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly in a low-risk environment[5] - In overseas equities, consider opportunities in interest-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar[5] - For A-shares, maintain an overweight position in technology growth sectors, particularly electronics and AI hardware[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6]

Core Insights - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" in China's financial market reflects a significant shift of residents' funds from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions, driven by low deposit interest rates and attractive stock market performance [1][2][5] Group 1: Deposit Migration Dynamics - In July 2025, residents' deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year drop of 780 billion yuan, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 1.39 trillion yuan, marking a near ten-year high [1] - The decline in bank deposit attractiveness is attributed to a continuous drop in interest rates, with many small and medium banks reducing rates by 10 to 40 basis points since April, leading to annualized rates below 2% [1][2] - The stock market's strong performance in July, with over 2 million new stock accounts opened, indicates a growing participation of ordinary citizens in equity investments [2][3] Group 2: Changing Investment Landscape - The diversification and convenience of investment channels have contributed to this trend, with mobile technology enabling easy access to various investment products [2][3] - A shift in the public's financial mindset is evident, as individuals now recognize that idle funds equate to depreciation due to inflation and rising living costs [2][5] - The younger generation, particularly those born after 2000, shows a higher acceptance of investment, actively engaging in the stock market and driving new investment trends [3][5] Group 3: Policy and Economic Implications - Recent monetary policy changes, including a reduction in loan market quotation rates and deposit rates by major banks, have further encouraged the flow of funds into alternative investment channels [3][5] - The "deposit migration" phenomenon is seen as a "seesaw effect" between resident deposits and non-bank deposits, where declining bank deposit yields push funds towards higher-yielding investments [5] - This shift is expected to enhance liquidity in the stock market, expand asset management for fund companies, and increase premium income for insurance firms, indicating a transformative impact on the financial ecosystem [5][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The trend of "deposit migration" is likely to persist in the short term due to ongoing low bank deposit rates and deepening capital market reforms [7] - As the financial market matures, wealth management for residents is anticipated to become more diversified and professional, with bank deposits remaining a key option for risk-averse investors [7][9] - The overall societal impact of this shift is positive, promoting market activity, improving resource allocation efficiency, and creating more wealth opportunities for the public [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the key level of 3674.40 points, reaching a new high since the "9·24" rally last year, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 10% [1] - On August 14, the index continued to rise, surpassing 3700 points, marking the highest level since December 2021, with trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 2.18 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1][2] Equity Market Dynamics - The current rally in the equity market is driven by multiple factors, including improved expectations from "anti-involution" policies, increased participation from retail investors, institutional funds, and foreign capital, as well as resilient macroeconomic fundamentals and proactive fiscal policies [2] - Various sectors are experiencing structural opportunities, with significant gains in securities, semiconductors, and insurance, indicating a shift away from a market dominated solely by bank stocks [2] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a mixed performance, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising from 1.6855% on August 11 to 1.7350% on August 13, reflecting a lack of clear catalysts for bond price increases [1][2] - The bond market is currently influenced by two main factors: the strong performance of the equity market reducing the willingness of bond investors to increase positions, and a divergence in institutional behavior, with funds and brokerages being net sellers while banks and insurance companies are net buyers [3][5] Tax Policy Impact - The recent restoration of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government and local bonds has led to an increase in selling pressure from funds, impacting their future bond allocation strategies [5][6] - Despite the tax changes, the overall impact on the bond market is expected to be limited, as the demand for fixed-income products remains relatively stable [8] Future Outlook - The bond market is perceived to be in a "top and bottom" range, with limited potential for significant yield declines due to the strong equity market and investor risk appetite, while still supported by a loose monetary policy [7] - Analysts suggest that the "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy may continue, but the coexistence of a "dual bull" market for stocks and bonds is also possible as the capital market recovers [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The further decline of US Treasury yields before September may be primarily driven by weaker economic data leading to higher expectations of interest rate cuts, or by the "see - saw effect" triggered by the weakness of other assets. The 10 - year yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 4.00 - 4.30%, but inflation and the "Big and Beautiful" Act may impede the decline of long - term yields [4][14]. - In the two - week period from July 18 to August 1, 2025, affected by the US July non - farm payroll report, global investors' risk - aversion increased, resulting in a double - kill situation in the US stock and bond markets. Different asset classes showed various trends, including significant declines in US and UK government bond yields, a new high in the Japanese stock market, a slump in the US stock market, an upward trend in the coking coal index, a decline in Chicago agricultural product futures prices, and a depreciation of the ruble and the euro [5][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. What Conditions are Needed for the Further Decline of US Treasury Yields? - **Monetary Policy**: At the July FOMC meeting, the interest rate and other monetary policies remained at the June level, in line with market expectations. Waller and Bowman voted against interest rate cuts, citing signs of weakness in the labor market, and Kugler, who was set to leave early, did not attend or vote. Kugler's early departure may increase Trump's influence on the Fed and lead to more divided views within the Fed [1][10]. - **Growth**: Q2 GDP showed a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.0%, but the main drivers were a decline in imports and accelerated consumer spending. Private consumption and investment weakened, with PDFP growing by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter, lower than the 1.9% in Q1 [2][10]. - **Inflation**: In June, inflationary pressures emerged, with CPI at 2.7%, core CPI at 2.9%, PCE at 2.6%, and core PCE at 2.8%, all reaching the highest levels since March [2][10]. - **Employment**: In July, the ADP employment figure rebounded unexpectedly, but the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, which greatly disrupted the interest rate market expectations, causing the 1 - year yield to decline by about 17bp on August 1 [2][11]. - **Policy Stance**: Some Fed presidents still recognize the resilience of the economy and employment and maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, denying the risk of recession and affirming the risk of stagflation [3][12]. 2. Bi - weekly Overseas Macro - analysis - **Interest Rates**: In the past two weeks, US Treasury yields declined significantly, with the 1 - year and 10 - year yields both dropping 21bp to 3.87% and 4.23% respectively. Affected by US Treasuries, UK government bond yields also declined on August 1, increasing investors' risk - aversion [5][16]. - **Equities**: The Japanese stock market reached a new high, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 2.46% in the past two weeks, driven by the US - Japan trade agreement on July 23. However, trading volume was low in July. The US stock market slumped after the release of the July non - farm payroll report, with the Nasdaq index dropping 2.29% on the night of the report release [17]. - **Commodities**: The coking coal index rose 12.07% in the past two weeks after the central government emphasized governance of low - price and disorderly competition in the coal industry. Chicago agricultural product futures prices fell across the board, pressured by high expectations of a bumper US autumn harvest [18]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The ruble depreciated by 3.44% in the past two weeks after the Russian central bank cut interest rates by 200 basis points on July 25. The euro fell 1.24% due to the impact of the US - EU trade agreement and a decline in investor confidence [19]. 3. Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts, including the bi - weekly fluctuations of global major economies' government bond yields, global major stock indices, major commodities, and global major foreign exchange rates (against the RMB), as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, and the yield curves and inflation trends of US, Japanese, and German government bonds [24][28][30][32][35][41][45].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the bond market adjusted continuously. Credit bonds experienced an unexpected "steep decline" with larger drops than interest - rate bonds. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the equity and commodity markets strengthened, causing the bond market to weaken due to the "see - saw" effect. Tightening liquidity in the second half of the week and strong profit - taking in funds and wealth management also contributed to the decline. The central bank's liquidity support on Friday stabilized the bond market temporarily [2][11]. - The adjustment of ultra - long - term credit bonds exceeded that of interest - rate bonds of the same maturity, with the highest adjustment in perpetual and secondary capital (perpetual and Tier 2, "Perp & T2") ultra - long bonds. The yields of AAA/AA + 10Y medium - term notes, AAA/AA + 10Y urban investment bonds, and AAA - 10Y bank Tier 2 capital bonds all increased significantly [3][12]. - The Perp & T2 bond market weakened and showed a "volatility amplifier" characteristic, with the declines of 3Y and above maturities exceeding those of general credit and ultra - long - term credit bonds of the same maturities. The trading sentiment was weak throughout the week, only easing on Friday [4][17]. - The selling intention of ultra - long - term credit bonds was strong, while the buying intention was weak. High - activity trading was mainly concentrated in 3 - 5Y low - quality urban investment bonds and some short - term real estate and financial bonds with flaws [5][22]. - Public funds continued to reduce their credit bond holdings, especially for bonds with maturities over 5 years. However, the turnover rate of 3 - 5Y Perp & T2 bonds increased significantly, indicating a shift to more liquid varieties. The trading value of credit - market - making ETFs decreased by nearly 4 billion, and the growth rate of the trading value of sci - tech innovation bond ETFs slowed down [5][27]. - In the short term, liquidity is still the key strategy. After the steep decline, 3 - 5Y bank Tier 2 capital bonds present certain investment opportunities, and there are also good opportunities for 1 - 3Y low - quality urban investment bond sinking and riding strategies. It is recommended to wait for better entry points for ultra - long - term bonds [5][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Adjustment and Performance - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the yields of 1Y - 5Y treasury bonds increased by 3.5BP, 5.5BP, 7.3BP, 7.9BP, and 7.9BP respectively, while the yields of the same - maturity AAA and AA + medium - term notes increased more significantly [11]. - The yields of 10Y AAA/AA + medium - term notes, AAA/AA + urban investment bonds, and AAA - 10Y bank Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 11.99BP, 9.99BP, 11.14BP, 10.14BP, and 14.47BP respectively, while the 10Y treasury bond yield only increased by 6.72BP [3][12]. 2. Curve Shape and Credit Spread Analysis - The steepness of the 1 - 2Y all - grade and 2 - 3Y low - grade curves was the highest, and the steepness was basically the same as that at the end of May. Except for the relatively flat short - end (less than 1 year), the rest of the maturities were at the highest steepness since the current bull market [14]. - The 3Y - 5Y credit spread protection cushion has been strengthened. The yields of 1Y - AAA, 3Y - AAA, 5Y - AAA, 1Y - AA +, 3Y - AA +, 5Y - AA +, 1Y - AA, and 3Y - AA medium - term notes were at the 19.89%, 26.02%, 25.25%, 12.75%, 15.05%, 18.62%, 13.77%, and 17.85% levels since 2024 respectively. The historical quantiles of their credit spreads were 11.14%, 24.66%, 28.64%, 6.89%, 13.52%, 21.48%, 7.69%, and 26.79% respectively [16]. 3. Perp & T2 Bond Market Analysis - The Perp & T2 bond market weakened, and the declines of 3Y and above maturities exceeded those of general credit and ultra - long - term credit bonds of the same maturities. The 1 - 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y AAA - bank Tier 2 capital bond yields increased by 6.73BP, 11.11BP, 13.80BP, 15.27BP, 13.67BP, 14.21BP, and 14.47BP respectively [4][17]. - The trading sentiment was weak throughout the week, only easing on Friday. From July 21 to July 25, the low - valuation trading ratios of Perp & T2 bonds were 4.88%, 7.32%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and 100.00% respectively, and the average trading durations were 0.77 years, 0.63 years, 0.53 years, 0.50 years, and 4.05 years respectively [4][19]. 4. Ultra - long - term Credit Bond Market Analysis - The selling intention of ultra - long - term credit bonds was strong, and the discount trading ratios from July 21 to July 25 were 92.68%, 60.98%, 90.24%, 97.56%, and 65.85% respectively. The discount amplitude was also significant, with some trading at over 5BP [5][22]. - The buying intention of ultra - long - term credit bonds was weak. The low - valuation trading ratios from July 21 to July 25 were 29.27%, 4.88%, 2.44%, 2.44%, and 4.88% respectively, and most of the low - valuation trading amplitudes were within 2BP [5][23]. 5. Institutional Behavior and ETF Analysis - Public funds continued to reduce their credit bond holdings, especially for bonds with maturities over 5 years. However, the turnover rate of 3 - 5Y Perp & T2 bonds increased significantly, indicating a shift to more liquid varieties [5][27]. - Affected by the market adjustment, the trading value of credit - market - making ETFs decreased by nearly 4 billion in a week, and the growth rate of the trading value of sci - tech innovation bond ETFs slowed down, with the subsequent increase in ETFs possibly falling short of expectations [5][27].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June, China's new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding the expected 3.71 trillion yuan[2] - New RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan[2] - M2 growth year-on-year was 8.3%, slightly above the expected 8.1%[2] Group 2: Private Sector Dynamics - The willingness of the private sector (both enterprises and households) to expand balance sheets has improved, with social financing growth rising to 8.9% year-on-year[5][9] - In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, with government contributions at 56.3% and credit contributions at 31.6%[5][9] - New loans for enterprises rebounded to historical median levels, with non-financial enterprise loans increasing by 1.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 trillion yuan[11] Group 3: Household Loan Trends - New household loans rose to 597.6 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 26.7 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating improved household willingness to expand[12] - Short-term household loans increased by 262.1 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans rose by 335.3 billion yuan, showing resilience in consumer spending[12] Group 4: Government Financing Impact - Government financing continued to dominate new social financing, with an increase of 1.35 trillion yuan in government debt financing, up 503.2 billion yuan year-on-year[17] - The "seesaw effect" between government financing and enterprise loans has weakened, leading to improved enterprise loan growth[11][20] Group 5: Monetary Indicators - Total deposits increased by 3.21 trillion yuan, with M2 growth rebounding to 8.3%[22] - M1 growth rate rose by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6%, indicating enhanced actual currency circulation[23][24]