Workflow
滞胀效应
icon
Search documents
贵金属周报:9月降息概率大增,金价重新走强-20250804
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 11:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]
黄金期货沪金保持慢涨 美国经济正在面临挑战
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-26 06:18
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the potential risks and opportunities for the US economy in 2025, as outlined in JPMorgan's mid-year outlook report [3] - The report indicates a significant risk of "stagflation" due to recent trade policies, particularly the increase in tariffs, which could lead to a 40% chance of recession [3] - It is projected that the US GDP growth rate for 2025 will be only 1.3%, a substantial downgrade from the earlier forecast of 2% [3] Group 2 - The increase in tariffs is expected to raise domestic price levels, reigniting inflationary pressures and potentially straining global supply chains [3] - The report warns that if the US economy enters a recession, the spillover effects could impact global markets, especially those reliant on the US market [3] - Short-term analysis of gold futures shows an increase in price, with the latest price at 773.94 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.51% rise [4]
关税政策屡生变数,美联储今年票委发声:降息门槛更高了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 02:04
Group 1 - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee indicated that the policy environment has become more complex due to President Trump's latest tariff threats, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate adjustments [1] - Goolsbee warned that new tariff policies could create "stagflation effects," which would simultaneously raise inflation and suppress economic growth, presenting a challenging situation for the central bank [1] - On the same day, Trump announced a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1 and stated that Apple would face a 25% tariff if it did not manufacture iPhones in the U.S., highlighting the uncertainty in trade policy as a new market risk [1] Group 2 - Goolsbee expressed optimism about the long-term growth prospects of the U.S. economy prior to the announcement of tariffs, believing that if the economy remains on a path of gradually declining inflation and full employment, interest rates could significantly decrease within the next 10 to 16 months [2] - He emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain flexibility and avoid pre-setting paths for upcoming policy meetings, indicating uncertainty in the current policy trajectory [2] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is 4.25% to 4.50%, unchanged since December 2024, with the latest actual trading rate at 4.33% [2]
美联储古尔斯比:关税仍将产生滞胀效应,协议的临时性将对经济造成压力。
news flash· 2025-05-12 18:50
Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicates that tariffs will continue to exert a stagflationary effect on the economy, suggesting that the temporary nature of agreements will place additional pressure on economic conditions [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are expected to have a lasting stagflationary impact on the economy [1] - The temporary nature of trade agreements is likely to create further economic stress [1]