1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the potential risks and opportunities for the US economy in 2025, as outlined in JPMorgan's mid-year outlook report [3] - The report indicates a significant risk of "stagflation" due to recent trade policies, particularly the increase in tariffs, which could lead to a 40% chance of recession [3] - It is projected that the US GDP growth rate for 2025 will be only 1.3%, a substantial downgrade from the earlier forecast of 2% [3] Group 2 - The increase in tariffs is expected to raise domestic price levels, reigniting inflationary pressures and potentially straining global supply chains [3] - The report warns that if the US economy enters a recession, the spillover effects could impact global markets, especially those reliant on the US market [3] - Short-term analysis of gold futures shows an increase in price, with the latest price at 773.94 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.51% rise [4]

芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比周五向CNBC表示，受总统特朗普最新关税威胁影响，政策环 境更加复杂，美联储可能推迟调整利率。作为2025年联邦公开市场委员会具有投票权的成员，古尔斯比 指出，贸易政策变化频繁，美联储需要观察其对通胀和就业的影响，因此短期内可能维持利率不变。 古尔斯比称，虽然当前政策路径充满不确定性，但他仍希望经济能够恢复到"通胀受控、增长稳定"的环 境。根据FOMC今年3月发布的预测，美联储将在2025年内降息两次。市场普遍预计，首次降息最早可 能在9月进行，但古尔斯比未就具体行动时间做出承诺。 目前，美联储的基准联邦基金利率目标区间为4.25%至4.50%，自2024年12月以来保持不变。联邦基金 实际交易利率最新为4.33%。（国际财闻汇） 尽管一部iPhone价格上涨对整体经济的直接影响可能有限，但这类关税威胁凸显了贸易政策的不确定 性，并成为一个新的市场风险点。当前市场已因财政政策走向不明而波动加剧，长期美债收益率上行明 显。古尔斯比强调，尽管美联储不直接参与财政或贸易政策讨论，但必须评估其带来的经济后果。 在谈及政策前景时，古尔斯比表示，在4月2日特朗普首次宣布关税之前，他仍 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicates that tariffs will continue to exert a stagflationary effect on the economy, suggesting that the temporary nature of agreements will place additional pressure on economic conditions [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are expected to have a lasting stagflationary impact on the economy [1] - The temporary nature of trade agreements is likely to create further economic stress [1]