Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the hidden risks in controlling stake acquisitions, particularly focusing on inventory, accounts receivable periods, and free cash flow as significant factors that can derail acquisition plans [1][3][4]. Group 1: Inventory Risks - High inventory levels, particularly when they exceed 50% of current assets, signal potential issues such as unsold products and low turnover efficiency [1]. - A case study involving a solar equipment company revealed that despite appearing profitable, it had two-year-old components in stock, indicating a risk of acquiring outdated inventory [1]. Group 2: Accounts Receivable Risks - Lengthening accounts receivable periods, especially exceeding 90 days, can indicate a company's struggle with cash flow and may lead to a "ticket-for-ticket" survival mode [3]. - An example of a new energy materials company showed an increase in accounts receivable turnover days from 48 to 126 days without a significant rise in sales, raising questions about the sustainability of reported growth [3]. Group 3: Free Cash Flow Risks - Negative free cash flow indicates a company is reliant on external financing, akin to a patient needing blood transfusions to survive [4]. - A real estate industry case highlighted a company with three consecutive years of negative operating cash flow, suggesting deeper operational and financing issues [4]. Group 4: Interconnected Risks - The three identified risks often coalesce, creating a "capital exhaustion flywheel" that can ensnare acquirers, as seen in a case where a large private enterprise faced cash flow issues due to high inventory and extended accounts receivable periods [4]. - The article warns that these risks are frequently overlooked due to the urgency of acquisitions, with acquirers focusing on net profits and valuations rather than cash flow realities [4][6]. Group 5: Recommendations for Mitigation - Goheal suggests a three-step approach to identify and manage these risks: assessing inventory aging and technology depreciation, establishing a linkage model between accounts receivable and sales, and conducting sensitivity tests on free cash flow [4][6]. - It is recommended to include performance guarantees and cash flow targets in acquisition agreements to prevent inflated profits through extended accounts receivable periods [6].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大家五一节快乐～ 今天大盘微涨微跌，截止到收盘，还在5.1星。 沪深300等大盘股略微下跌。 中小盘股上涨。 银行等价值风格下跌较多，成长风格上涨。 港股整体上涨，港股科技股领涨。 港股科技股在春节后一波上涨，回到正常估值。 4月初短期下跌后，回落到低估。 最近两周连续上涨，今天上涨后也回到正常偏低估值了。 1. 港股科技类品种，之前估值比较低，背后公司的盈利增长这几年比较稳定。 从低估上涨也比较快速。 咱们之前说过指数的一个收益公式： 指数基金=估值*盈利+分红。 在当前5点几星，很多品种估值处于低估，向下的空间不大。 特别是今年，每次市场回到5点几星，又出现下跌的时候，就会有国家队等机构投资者大举买入，减少下跌的空间。 不过向上的话，核心动力，来自于上市公司的盈利增长。 2. 那2024年到2025年1季度盈利增长情况如何呢？ 2021年，A股全市场盈利增长比较多，盈利增长20%。 但随后的2022、2023、2024，因为经济低迷周期，A股全市场盈利增长停滞，甚至部分公司盈利下降。 PS :也没有达到金融危机的程度。2008年金融危机的时候，美股盈利出现腰斩级别下 ...