丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 9 月降息或无疑，四季度仍有降息可能 ——如何理解鲍威尔在全球央行年会上的发言 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上超预期放鸽，对美联储"通胀稳定、充分就业"双重目标 的关注由通胀转为就业。年内来看，由于关税对通胀的影响仍在缓慢传导，8 月料将维持"通 胀温和、就业偏弱"的数据特征，9 月降息或无疑。进入四季度，关税对通胀的影响进一步显 现，但幅度或较为有限；9 月降息、大美丽法案财政支出等对经济虽有托举效果，但或难有效 对冲经济走弱的惯性，四季度仍有可能再降息 1 次以应对潜在的经济下行风险。极端假设下， 关税政策未来或将额外推升通胀 1.2%-1.4%，这或将掣肘明年一季度的降息步伐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 于博 黄帅 敬成宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 9 月降息或无疑，四季度仍 ...

Economic Context - At the 2025 Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September seen as almost certain by the market[4] - The U.S. economy is facing dual challenges: inflation pressures rising due to tariff increases and a weak labor market with synchronized supply and demand softening[4] Inflation and Employment - Core PCE inflation has risen to 2.9%, above last year's level, with significant increases in commodity prices[4] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, non-farm employment growth has sharply slowed, indicating increasing risks to job stability[6] Policy Framework Changes - Powell announced the abandonment of the "compensatory" average inflation targeting introduced in 2020, reverting to a more traditional flexible inflation target[7] - This adjustment reflects a recognition that intentional mild inflation overshooting is not suitable in the current economic context, especially amid severe and persistent inflation shocks[7] Market Reactions - Market expectations for a September rate cut have surged, with over 85% probability indicated in federal funds futures[7] - If the Fed opts for more aggressive easing, such as a 50 basis point cut or a series of cuts, it could lead to significant impacts on risk assets, particularly in the tech sector and emerging markets[8] Dollar and Risk Assets - The dollar faces structural pressures, potentially weakening further if the Fed accelerates rate cuts, which could increase commodity prices and affect capital flows to emerging markets[8] - The stock market may experience a revaluation, with increased risk appetite and capital inflows into high beta assets like tech stocks[8]

据央视新闻消息，当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，当前形势 暗示就业增长面临下行风险，风险平衡点的变化可能要求调整政策。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态 度。 "就业市场风险上升可能使美联储在9月降息" 鲍威尔指出美国经济在高关税与收紧移民政策背景下仍展现韧性，但劳动力市场与经济增长已出现显著 放缓。他表示，尽管通胀仍受关注，但就业市场风险上升可能使美联储在9月降息。他强调，在政策维 持紧缩的背景下，经济前景及风险变化或需调整政策立场。 在通胀方面，鲍威尔指出关税已推高部分商品价格，7月核心PCE物价同比上涨2.9%。他强调，关税效 应可能是一次性冲击，但若通胀预期被推升，风险不可忽视。 在政策立场上，鲍威尔称，美联储利率水平已较去年更接近"中性"，未来将谨慎评估风险，确保不会让 一次性物价上涨演变成长期通胀问题。他重申，美联储将始终在实现最大就业和物价稳定的双重使命间 保持平衡。 当天，美联储还发布了修订后的《长期目标与货币政策战略声明》。修订要点包括取消"平均通胀目标 制"，回归灵活通胀目标等。 编辑：严哲川 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a regular evaluation of its monetary policy strategy, focusing on two main adjustments: downplaying the controversial inflation target strategy and reforming the policy communication system [1][2] Group 1: Inflation Target Strategy - The Federal Reserve is expected to downplay the "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) policy introduced during the pandemic, returning to a more traditional inflation target setting [2] - Critics argue that the FAIT policy delayed the Fed's response to rising inflation, exacerbating inflationary pressures [2] - Analysts predict that the Fed will shift its focus to responding to deviations in both inflation and employment, rather than solely on employment shortfalls [2] Group 2: Communication Strategy - Upgrading communication tools is a significant aspect of the current evaluation, potentially having a more substantial impact than changes to the monetary policy strategy itself [3] - Proposed reforms aim to enhance policy transparency, helping investors better understand the Fed's decision-making process [3] - These adjustments are expected to stabilize market expectations and reduce the risk of policy misjudgments in the medium to long term [3] Group 3: Alternative Economic Scenarios - One proposal includes providing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks, which could offer valuable real-time information to investors if linked to interest rate predictions [4] - Another proposal suggests that Federal Open Market Committee members' economic and interest rate forecasts be correlated while maintaining anonymity, allowing investors to understand individual members' perspectives [4]