Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a cautious approach towards potential interest rate cuts, emphasizing the heightened uncertainty that complicates monetary policy decisions [1][3][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders currently estimate a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to Powell's speech [1]. - The market is pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year [1]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - Powell noted that while the labor market remains robust and the economy shows resilience, downside risks are increasing [3][6]. - He warned that increased tariffs could lead to new inflationary pressures, raising the risk of stagflation, which the Fed aims to avoid [3][6]. Group 3: Policy Framework Review - Powell discussed the Fed's five-year review of its policy framework, acknowledging past mistakes in underestimating inflation, which reached a 40-year high [7]. - The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to a long-term inflation target of 2%, which is seen as crucial for maintaining stable inflation expectations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a more thoughtful selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair, focusing on improving the Fed's overall performance and accountability rather than short-term market considerations [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Challenges - President Trump has called for significant cuts to the federal funds rate to stimulate economic activity, which could lead to excessive inflationary monetary policy and increase borrowing costs for the government, households, and businesses [1]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence in setting monetary policy may undermine confidence in U.S. financial markets and further depress the dollar's value [1]. - The Fed has made mistakes under Powell's leadership, resulting in high inflation and unclear monetary policy strategies [1][2]. Group 2: Key Policy Issues for the Next Chair - The dual mandate of the Fed—ensuring price stability and full employment—has been criticized, particularly regarding the Fed's inflation bias in 2021 and 2022, raising questions about the appropriate weighting of inflation and employment [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet has expanded significantly since the 2008 financial crisis, leading to questions about the necessary size and composition of the balance sheet for effective monetary policy [2]. - Financial regulation reforms are needed to avoid costly pressures in the U.S. Treasury market, and the Fed must distinguish its regulatory activities from monetary policy to maintain independence [2][3]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - The Fed should embrace diverse economic viewpoints to better address the evolving economic landscape and avoid groupthink tendencies that can lead to policy errors [3]. - The selection process for Fed officials should prioritize knowledge and experience diversity rather than political motivations, ensuring a broader range of perspectives [3]. - The next Fed Chair should possess knowledge of monetary policy and financial regulation, independent judgment, and an openness to new ideas that can enhance institutional performance and accountability [3].

这场年度盛会已经成为观察美联储动态的关键夏季节点。对于投资者而言，最值得期待的莫过于星期五（8月22日）美联储主席鲍威尔将发表的讲话。 本周晚些时候，全球目光将再次聚焦美国怀俄明州的小镇杰克逊霍尔，来自世界各地的经济学家、央行行长以及知名企业领袖将汇聚一堂，出席由堪萨斯城 联储主办的年度全球央行会议。 在本周五的演讲中，鲍威尔将面对两难选择：在他任期于明年5月结束前，是继续坚持抗通胀，还是更多关注就业问题。近期美国经济数据呈现出明显的"左 右摇摆"趋势，为鲍威尔的政策决策带来极大不确定性，美联储内部对于通胀和失业哪个风险更大也存在分歧。 市场方面，投资者普遍预计美联储可能在9月政策会议上降息25个基点，但近期批发价格意外走高也令市场对降息的预期略有回落。 然而，是否降息可能并不是最关键的问题，关键在于鲍威尔如何阐述未来的政策路径。前美联储副主席、现Pimco全球经济顾问Richard Clarida表示："我了 解的鲍威尔希望以数据为依托，不会提前做决定。如果9月真的降息，沟通上会非常关键。我们要传递什么信息？这是一系列操作的开始吗？即便他们想降 息，信息传递也可能是个挑战。" 目前，美联储正在重新审视自20 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a regular evaluation of its monetary policy strategy, focusing on two main adjustments: downplaying the controversial inflation target strategy and reforming the policy communication system [1][2] Group 1: Inflation Target Strategy - The Federal Reserve is expected to downplay the "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) policy introduced during the pandemic, returning to a more traditional inflation target setting [2] - Critics argue that the FAIT policy delayed the Fed's response to rising inflation, exacerbating inflationary pressures [2] - Analysts predict that the Fed will shift its focus to responding to deviations in both inflation and employment, rather than solely on employment shortfalls [2] Group 2: Communication Strategy - Upgrading communication tools is a significant aspect of the current evaluation, potentially having a more substantial impact than changes to the monetary policy strategy itself [3] - Proposed reforms aim to enhance policy transparency, helping investors better understand the Fed's decision-making process [3] - These adjustments are expected to stabilize market expectations and reduce the risk of policy misjudgments in the medium to long term [3] Group 3: Alternative Economic Scenarios - One proposal includes providing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks, which could offer valuable real-time information to investors if linked to interest rate predictions [4] - Another proposal suggests that Federal Open Market Committee members' economic and interest rate forecasts be correlated while maintaining anonymity, allowing investors to understand individual members' perspectives [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the era of ultra-low interest rates and aggressive monetary policies is over, as the U.S. enters a "new normal" of high inflation [1][3] - Powell acknowledges a fundamental shift in the global economic landscape since 2020, necessitating a reevaluation of the previous monetary policy framework [3][8] - The previous framework relied on a "flexible average inflation target" to manage short-term inflation spikes, but this approach is now deemed inadequate [6][19] Group 2 - Powell's statement indicates that the zero lower bound on interest rates is no longer a baseline scenario, marking a significant policy shift [8][9] - The actual interest rates adjusted for inflation are rising, signaling deeper economic changes rather than mere cyclical fluctuations [9][11] - The previous reliance on globalization for price stability is diminishing, as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have emerged [11][15] Group 3 - The Fed's tools and methodologies must be rethought in light of the changing economic environment, with a reduced emphasis on traditional employment metrics [15][17] - The "flexible average inflation target" is under review, as it has struggled to cope with the pressures of the pandemic and geopolitical risks [19][21] - Powell emphasizes the importance of maintaining a 2% inflation target as a guiding principle, despite market speculation about potential adjustments [21][27] Group 4 - The central bank's role is evolving to address more frequent and persistent supply shocks, which cannot be managed solely through interest rate adjustments [21][23] - The communication strategy of the Fed is also being reassessed to better convey the complexities of the current economic landscape [25][27] - The global economy may experience a bifurcated state, with Western economies facing high inflation and low growth, while production-oriented economies may struggle with overcapacity and low inflation [27][29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the weak performance of the U.S. retail market, which raises concerns about economic growth and boosts expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [1] - U.S. retail sales for April showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, surpassing market expectations of 0.0%, while March's data was revised significantly upward to a growth of 1.7% [1] - The control group data, which directly impacts GDP, decreased by 0.2%, contrary to market expectations of a 0.3% increase, casting a shadow over the start of the second quarter [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that "supply shocks" may become the new normal, indicating that higher real interest rates could reflect more volatile inflation in the future [1] - The Fed's 2020 policy framework may shift focus away from employment gaps, as Powell stated that the central bank might not overly prioritize employment in the future [1] - The Fed adopted a "flexible average inflation targeting" approach, allowing inflation to exceed 2% for a period after being below that level for an extended time [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis of gold indicates a potential upward trend, with a recent price increase from 3120.0 to a peak of 3250.0, suggesting a possible shift in market momentum [4] - The trading strategy for gold suggests attempting to buy near 3211.0, with a stop loss at 3203.0 and targets set at 3231.0 and 3265.0 [2] - Silver prices also showed a bullish trend, recovering above the previous low of 31.87 and reaching a high of 32.67, indicating a potential upward movement [6]

SHMET 网讯： 在周四的讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示正在重新评估其货币政策框架的"关键部分"，包括通胀目标和就业"缺口"的处理方式。随着经济和政策不断变 动，长期利率可能会走高。 鲍威尔表示，较高的实际利率可能反映了未来通胀可能比2010年代间歇期更加波动的可能性，称"供应冲击"将"更频繁且可能更持久"，这对经济和央行来说 是一个困难的挑战。然而，华尔街日报知名记者、"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos认为，这实际上与美联储目前设定利率的方式关系不大。 重新评估"缺口"概念：不再过度关注就业 2020年框架已不适用 当地时间周四，鲍威尔在美联储托马斯·劳巴赫(Thomas Laubach)研究会议上表示，美联储正在调整其货币政策框架，以应对2020年疫情后通胀和利率前景的 重大变化。 他表示，2020年制定的政策框架是基于当时持续低利率和低通胀的环境，但当下经济条件已发生显著变化。 我们将确保新的共识声明能够适应广泛的经济环境和发展。 特别值得注意的是，鲍威尔明确指出"零利率下限约束不再是基础情景。"他表示，2020年疫情之后，通胀调整后的"实际"利率上升，可能会影响美联储当前 框架的要素。 ...