美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度会议上发表了备受期待的讲话。他谨慎地释放了未来可能降息 的信号，同时强调高度的不确定性正使货币政策制定变得更加困难。 交易员目前预计9月美联储将降息的概率约为90%，而鲍威尔讲话前这一概率为75%。交易员再次完全定价美联储年底前降息两次。 | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL-CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MEETING DATE | 175-200 | 200-225 | | 225-250 250-275 275-300 | | 300-325 | 325-350 | 350-375 | 375-400 | 400-425 4 | | 2025-09-17 | | | | -- | -- | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 75.5% | | 2025-10-29 | ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a regular evaluation of its monetary policy strategy, focusing on two main adjustments: downplaying the controversial inflation target strategy and reforming the policy communication system [1][2] Group 1: Inflation Target Strategy - The Federal Reserve is expected to downplay the "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) policy introduced during the pandemic, returning to a more traditional inflation target setting [2] - Critics argue that the FAIT policy delayed the Fed's response to rising inflation, exacerbating inflationary pressures [2] - Analysts predict that the Fed will shift its focus to responding to deviations in both inflation and employment, rather than solely on employment shortfalls [2] Group 2: Communication Strategy - Upgrading communication tools is a significant aspect of the current evaluation, potentially having a more substantial impact than changes to the monetary policy strategy itself [3] - Proposed reforms aim to enhance policy transparency, helping investors better understand the Fed's decision-making process [3] - These adjustments are expected to stabilize market expectations and reduce the risk of policy misjudgments in the medium to long term [3] Group 3: Alternative Economic Scenarios - One proposal includes providing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks, which could offer valuable real-time information to investors if linked to interest rate predictions [4] - Another proposal suggests that Federal Open Market Committee members' economic and interest rate forecasts be correlated while maintaining anonymity, allowing investors to understand individual members' perspectives [4]

5月15日，美联储主席鲍威尔公开发声，过去的超低利率、大放水政策彻底落幕，美国正驶入高通胀的"新常 态"车道。 它的核心想法就像高速公路的"区间测速"，短期内通胀超标点没关系，只要拉长看平均值能回到2%附近就 行。 他表示这次不仅是政策上的转向，更是承认了对全球经济底层逻辑的巨变。 要知道，当初零利率仿佛是政策的基准线，美联储为应对低利率、低通胀、低增长那个"三低"世界，专门捣 鼓出了"灵活平均通胀目标"这套导航系统。 鲍威尔的"变天"信号 5月15日，美联储主席鲍威尔放出信号弹，这次他说话的分量可不轻：他承认2020年以来世界变了，变到美联 储那套玩了五年的低利率、大放水政策框架，不得不从根儿上重新审视。 尤其是通胀目标怎么定，以及看就业缺口到底还准不准，这等于直接给过去"印钱万岁"的主旋律投了张不信 任票，他的这次表态也算是间接认了错，他们对通胀长期趋势的判断，确实跑偏了。 可现在鲍威尔现在一句"零利率下限不再是基础情景"，直接宣告旧时代落幕，这不仅仅是换个说法，更是政 策思维的根本性掉头。 如今通胀调整后的实际利率正在悄悄爬升，这可不是经济周期那种偶然反弹，而是地基都在动的信号。 那个可以心安理得享受超 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the weak performance of the U.S. retail market, which raises concerns about economic growth and boosts expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [1] - U.S. retail sales for April showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, surpassing market expectations of 0.0%, while March's data was revised significantly upward to a growth of 1.7% [1] - The control group data, which directly impacts GDP, decreased by 0.2%, contrary to market expectations of a 0.3% increase, casting a shadow over the start of the second quarter [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that "supply shocks" may become the new normal, indicating that higher real interest rates could reflect more volatile inflation in the future [1] - The Fed's 2020 policy framework may shift focus away from employment gaps, as Powell stated that the central bank might not overly prioritize employment in the future [1] - The Fed adopted a "flexible average inflation targeting" approach, allowing inflation to exceed 2% for a period after being below that level for an extended time [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis of gold indicates a potential upward trend, with a recent price increase from 3120.0 to a peak of 3250.0, suggesting a possible shift in market momentum [4] - The trading strategy for gold suggests attempting to buy near 3211.0, with a stop loss at 3203.0 and targets set at 3231.0 and 3265.0 [2] - Silver prices also showed a bullish trend, recovering above the previous low of 31.87 and reaching a high of 32.67, indicating a potential upward movement [6]

SHMET 网讯： 在周四的讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示正在重新评估其货币政策框架的"关键部分"，包括通胀目标和就业"缺口"的处理方式。随着经济和政策不断变 动，长期利率可能会走高。 鲍威尔表示，较高的实际利率可能反映了未来通胀可能比2010年代间歇期更加波动的可能性，称"供应冲击"将"更频繁且可能更持久"，这对经济和央行来说 是一个困难的挑战。然而，华尔街日报知名记者、"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos认为，这实际上与美联储目前设定利率的方式关系不大。 重新评估"缺口"概念：不再过度关注就业 2020年框架已不适用 当地时间周四，鲍威尔在美联储托马斯·劳巴赫(Thomas Laubach)研究会议上表示，美联储正在调整其货币政策框架，以应对2020年疫情后通胀和利率前景的 重大变化。 他表示，2020年制定的政策框架是基于当时持续低利率和低通胀的环境，但当下经济条件已发生显著变化。 我们将确保新的共识声明能够适应广泛的经济环境和发展。 特别值得注意的是，鲍威尔明确指出"零利率下限约束不再是基础情景。"他表示，2020年疫情之后，通胀调整后的"实际"利率上升，可能会影响美联储当前 框架的要素。 ...