Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% week-on-week, lower than the same period last year and at a multi - year low. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, with most downstream operating rates rising. The road asphalt operating rate increased 1 percentage point to 10% week - on - week but was still below the end - of - January level. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased 37.6% to 10.99 tons week - on - week. The asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased slightly week - on - week and remained at a multi - year low. The price of asphalt in Shandong increased, but the basis was still low. China's import of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention, and the Middle East raw material supply will be affected by the US - Israel attack on Iran. Although the supply - demand situation of asphalt has improved, due to the uncertain US - Iran negotiations and the unresolved supply - side pressure, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The asphalt 2606 contract rose 4.17% to 4,543 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 4,361 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,599 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest of 34,506 to 275,580 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 4,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract fell to - 213 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 2. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Tahe Petrochemical shut down or reduced their loads, and the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a multi - year low. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets in the road transport industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% in the same period of 2025 but still showing a year - on - year decline. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets for infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant increase from - 2.2% in the same period of 2025. As of the week of March 20, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and most downstream operating rates rose, with the road asphalt operating rate increasing 1 percentage point to 10% week - on - week but still below the end - of - January level [1][4] - Inventory: As of the week of March 20, the asphalt refinery inventory rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 17.6% week - on - week compared with the week of March 13, remaining at a multi - year low [1][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market rebounded after a decline. Although the supply - side pressure has not been substantially alleviated and the Middle East situation is unstable, the asphalt's own supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and participate with caution, while paying attention to the development of the Middle East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 (Market Analysis) - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 10% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January. In the East China region, refinery supply decreased, and high prices suppressed transactions, resulting in a significant decline in shipments. The national shipments decreased by 37.6% to 109,900 tons week - on - week, still at a low level. The asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased slightly week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years. The asphalt price in Shandong region dropped, and the basis fell to a low level again. China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention, and due to the US - Israel attack on Iran, Middle East raw material supply will be affected, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries. Although China's imports of Iranian asphalt are not much, imports from other Middle Eastern countries such as the UAE and Iraq account for about half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared to China's asphalt production. This week, Qilu Petrochemical resumed production, but the main refineries in East and South China reduced their loads. It is expected that the asphalt operating rate will decrease slightly. The Strait of Hormuz is still not navigable, increasing the expectation of refinery production cuts. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover slowly, and the supply - demand situation of asphalt itself will improve. However, there is a possibility of negotiations between Iran and the US, and the Middle East situation is volatile. At the same time, the supply - side pressure of asphalt has not been substantially alleviated [1] 3.2期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market) - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2606 contract fell 1.10% to 4,410 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 4,198 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 4,504 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 610 to 241,074 lots [2] 3.3基差方面 (Basis) - In Shandong region, the mainstream market price dropped to 4,280 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract dropped to - 130 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] 3.4基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking) - Supply side: Refineries such as Tahe Petrochemical suspended production or reduced their loads. The asphalt operating rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% from January to December 2025, but still showing a year - on - year negative growth. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant improvement from - 2.2% from January to December 2025. As of the week of March 20, after the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 10% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January. - Inventory: As of the week of March 20, the asphalt refinery inventory rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 17.6% compared to the week of March 13, still at the lowest level in recent years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The asphalt price is expected to be strong and volatile following the crude oil price in the near future due to improved supply - demand, significant cost support, and concerns over the Middle East situation. Traders should participate with caution and monitor the progress of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week - on - week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 218.7 million tons, a 13.0% increase from February but a 1.9% decrease from the same period last year [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, with most of the asphalt downstream industries' operating rates rising. The road asphalt operating rate increased 1 percentage point to 9% week - on - week but was still lower than the end - of - January level [1] - Last week, refineries in Shandong resumed stable production, and downstream stocking enthusiasm increased after the price rise. The national asphalt shipment volume increased 12.67% week - on - week to 17.61 million tons but remained at a low level [1] - The asphalt plant inventory rate remained flat week - on - week, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate was at the lowest level in recent years. The asphalt price in Shandong followed the increase, but the basis was at a low level [1] - China's import of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. With the US - Israel attack on Iran, Middle East raw material supply will be affected, and there are concerns about a shortage of domestic refinery raw materials in March [1] - China imports little asphalt from Iran. Imports from the UAE and Iraq account for half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% of China's asphalt production [1] - Dongming Petrochemical will resume production this week, slightly increasing the asphalt operating rate. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover, and the asphalt supply - demand situation will improve, with significant cost support [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2606 contract rose 1.73% to 4,409 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 4,285 yuan/ton, and the highest was 4,508 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 5,616 to 252,993 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 4,090 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract fell to - 319 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Ningbo Keyuan and Xinjiang Fakangni stopped asphalt production, causing the asphalt operating rate to drop 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week - on - week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4] - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% in the same period in 2025 but still showing negative year - on - year growth [4] - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant increase from - 2.2% in the same period in 2025 [4] - As of the week of March 13, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, with most of the asphalt downstream industries' operating rates rising. The road asphalt operating rate increased 1 percentage point to 9% week - on - week but was still lower than the end - of - January level [4] - As of the week of March 13, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 17.7% compared to the week of March 6, at the lowest level in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt price is expected to rise following the crude oil price in the near term, with the asphalt's supply and demand both increasing. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle - East situation and the raw material shortage of domestic refineries [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week - on - week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%) [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4 percentage points to 8% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January [1] - This week, refineries in Shandong resumed production, and the continuous price increase boosted downstream stocking sentiment. The national shipment volume increased by 19.86% to 156,300 tons, at a relatively low level [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries have not fully resumed production, and the asphalt refinery inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1] - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. There are signs that the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but the imports are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. The attack on Iran by the US and Israel may affect the raw material supply, and the market is worried about the raw material shortage of domestic refineries in March [1] - Henan Fengli plans to resume production next week, the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover, and the asphalt's supply and demand will both increase [1] 3.2期现行情 - Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract rose 3.34% to 3,771 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,656 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,834 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 2,388 to 85,886 lots [2] 3.3基差方面 - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,570 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract fell to - 201 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.4基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, individual refineries in the north resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week - on - week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative [5] - From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a cumulative year - on - year negative growth situation [5] - From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [5] - As of the week of March 6, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4 percentage points to 8% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January [5] - As of the week of March 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.7% compared with the week of February 27. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries have not fully resumed production, and the asphalt refinery inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the rise of crude oil price in the near future, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle - East situation [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%) [1] - Demand side: After the Spring Festival holiday last week, downstream industries resumed work slowly, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week. The national shipment volume decreased by 0.99% to 130,400 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low level [1] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival holiday, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong region increased, but the basis is at a relatively low level. The Venezuelan heavy - crude oil flow to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. There are concerns about raw material shortages in domestic refineries in March [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.11% to 3,659 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,563 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,758 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 13,098 to 83,497 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region rose to 3,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to - 109 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some major refineries in the South produce intermittently. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The national highway construction investment from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025, but it is still negative. The actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation from January to December 2025 increased by - 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. The completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 increased by - 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - Demand side: As of the week of February 27, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries resumed work slowly, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week [4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13. During the Spring Festival holiday, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the rise of crude oil prices in the near future, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week-on-week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons or 13.0%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons or 1.9%. After the Spring Festival holiday last week, downstream industries slowly resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 4 percentage points to 4% week-on-week. During the Spring Festival holiday, the supply in Shandong was at a low level, and the logistics was stagnant, resulting in a significant decrease in its shipments. The national shipments decreased by 0.99% to 130,400 tons week-on-week, at a relatively low level [1] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival holiday, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years. As of the week of February 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13 [1][4] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong increased, but the basis dropped to a relatively low level. The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to -130 yuan/ton [1][3] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. There are reports that the large trader Vitol China offers a discount of $5 per barrel for Venezuelan crude oil, which is significantly smaller than the discount of $13 per barrel in December 2025. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but it is expected that the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to the Indian market will increase, and China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. In addition, the current attacks by the US and Israel on Iran will affect the supply of Iranian raw materials, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract rose 2.35% to 3,660 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,570 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,751 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 14,266 to 96,594 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to -130 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On the fundamental side, on the supply side, some main refineries in the south are producing intermittently. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week-on-week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment increased by -5.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with January - October 2025, but it is still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry increased by -6.0% year-on-year, continuing to decline from -4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a situation of cumulative year-on-year negative growth. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from -1.1% from January to November 2025 to -2.2% [4] - Downstream: As of the week of February 27, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries slowly resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 4 percentage points to 4% week-on-week [1][4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13. During the Spring Festival holiday, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [4]