免责声明 节奏，近月合约预计强于远月合约。技术上，SH2601关注2600附近支撑与2760附近压力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 烧碱产业日报 | | | | 2025-09-02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) -70 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 2665 | | | 110334 | -19229 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -6181 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | -10927 | | | 64 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, industry maintenance and alumina stockpiling support the spot price; in the long - term, with the commissioning of new caustic soda plants from June to July and the release of downstream stockpiling demand, the supply - demand of caustic soda is expected to weaken. The price of SH2509 is low and the basis is high, so short - selling is not advisable [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2308 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the futures holding volume is 271,481 lots, up 28,692 lots; the net holding of the top 20 futures is - 29,043 lots, down 6,350 lots; the futures trading volume is 612,851 lots, up 19,871 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2248 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2307 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 415 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3260 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From May 30th to June 5th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.5%, down 0.6% from the previous period. As of June 5th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 382,100 tons (wet tons), down 2.67% month - on - month and up 5.52% year - on - year [3] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, last week the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased 0.6% to 83.5%, with little change. In June, centralized maintenance has started, but the high profit of chlor - alkali drives the high - load operation of plants, and the reduction in supply may be limited. On the demand side, the alumina production - resuming devices are increasing, and the operating rate is continuously rising; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased 0.04% to 80.56%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased 1.18% to 61.5%. This week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased 2.67% to 382,100 tons, maintaining a destocking trend and at a relatively high level in the same period [3] 3.8 Cost and Price Analysis - Currently, the cost in Shandong is 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the peak season of coal and electricity demand may support the future electricity cost. Some alumina plants in Shandong and Guangxi have raised the purchase price of liquid caustic soda [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Urea - Despite high domestic urea daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline. The release of aid - related export orders from May to June and the upcoming summer top - dressing season are expected to support the market. However, price increases will be cautious, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [5]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. In the short term, after the market digests macro - level positives, it may focus on the impact of geopolitical factors on supply. Oil prices are expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and consider strategies to capture volatility on the options side [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply - demand outlook is improving, but the current spot supply is still loose. Consider opportunities such as long PX05 and short crude oil [18]. - PTA: Supply - demand may gradually weaken, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. TA01 is expected to oscillate between 4800 - 5000 [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply - demand will gradually weaken, and there is pressure on the upside in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to port inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [18]. - Short Fiber: The processing fee is expected to be compressed, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. PF02 is expected to operate between 6800 - 7100 [18]. - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. Consider short - term short - selling strategies [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply is in a concentrated maintenance phase, and the demand from the alumina industry is improving. The spot price is rising, and the futures market is strong. Consider short - term short - selling opportunities near the resistance level of 2550 [26]. - PVC: Although the futures market has strengthened slightly, the supply - demand surplus problem persists. It is recommended to wait and see during price rebounds and consider short - selling in the medium term [26]. Styrene - In the short term, styrene is expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing high prices. The operating range of 06 is expected to move up to 7000 - 7600. Pay attention to the continuity of spot transactions [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - The supply pressure of plastics will gradually decrease in May. The supply pressure of PP will ease slightly in the second quarter. Pay attention to the restocking and export situation of plastic products [32]. Methanol - The inland valuation has downward pressure, and the supply - demand situation is loose. The port has entered a inventory - building period. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high prices [35][37]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - On May 12, the 01 contract closed at 1801 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from May 9; the 05 contract closed at 1925 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the 09 contract closed at 1897 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the methanol main contract closed at 2270 yuan/ton, up 1.93% [1]. Futures Contract Spreads - On May 12, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 124 yuan/ton, up 14.48% from May 9; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 28 yuan/ton, down 33.33% [2]. Upstream Raw Materials - As of May 13, the prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces, steam coal, and synthetic ammonia remained unchanged compared to May 12 [3]. Spot Market Prices - As of May 13, domestic and international spot prices of urea remained unchanged [3]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily data: Domestic urea daily production decreased by 1.20% to 19.72 million tons on May 8 compared to before. - Weekly data: Domestic urea weekly production increased by 0.21% to 139.60 million tons; factory inventory decreased by 10.58% to 106.56 million tons; port inventory increased by 12.71% to 13.30 million tons [5]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On May 13, Brent crude oil was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.64% from May 12; WTI was at 61.96 dollars/barrel, up 0.02%; SC was at 474.80 yuan/barrel, up 1.34% [14]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [18]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On May 12, POY150/48 price was 6675 yuan/ton, up 1.4% from May 9; FDY150/96 price was 6845 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [18]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at 785 dollars/ton on May 12, unchanged from May 9 [18]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4840 yuan/ton on May 12, up 2.7% from May 9 [18]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 12, down 6.8% from May 6 [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Prices - On May 12, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from before; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4660 yuan/ton, unchanged [22]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - FOB East China port caustic soda was at 395 dollars/ton on May 8, down 1.3% from May 1 [22]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.5% on May 9, up 1.3% from May 2; PVC total operating rate was 77.9%, up 1.4% [24]. Styrene Upstream and Related Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [29]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot price was 7530 yuan/ton on May 12, up 5.0% from May 9 [29]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - EPS ordinary material (East China) was at 8250 yuan/ton on May 12, down 1.2% from May 9 [29]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 13.40 million tons on May 7, up 10.7% from April 30; styrene East China port inventory was 6.25 million tons, down 15.3% [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) Prices and Spreads - On May 12, L2505 closed at 7282 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from May 9; PP2505 closed at 7100 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [32]. Operating Rates and Inventory - PE device operating rate was 84.1% on May 12, down 0.91% from before; PP device operating rate was 79.7%, up 7.2% [32]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On May 12, MA2505 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 2.10% from May 9; the spread between MA2505 and MA2509 was 68 yuan/ton, up 7.94% [35]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory was 30.391% on May 12, up 7.26% from before; upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.65%, up 1.64% [35].