Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract down by 1.91% to 2105.0 CNY/ton as of December 5 [1] Inventory and Production - As of December 4, caustic soda enterprise inventory reached 504,800 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons or 7.45% from the previous week; over the past month, inventory has accumulated an increase of 90,000 tons, representing a 21.70% rise [2] - The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more reached 504,800 tons (wet tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.43% and a year-on-year increase of 79.32% [2] Market Position and Trading - As of December 4, the top 20 futures companies in caustic soda held a total of 196,700 long positions and 227,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.86; the net position was -31,200 contracts, an increase of 2,954 contracts compared to the previous day [2] Industry Insights - According to Ruida Futures, production load in North, Central, and East China has increased, with the average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda rising; however, downstream demand remains weak, leading to high inventory levels compared to previous years [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that the caustic soda market continues to face downward pressure due to high inventory levels and insufficient downstream demand, although there is still some profit in the chlor-alkali sector [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SH2601 contract of caustic soda is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to the low - level support around 2404 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 2501. The high warehouse receipts still suppress the futures price, and the market sentiment is weak due to the continuous Sino - US trade disputes [3]. - The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories is relatively high during the holiday, but the planned maintenance of North and East China devices this week may partially relieve the supply pressure. The demand for caustic soda from alumina enterprises is expected to remain stable in the short - term, while non - aluminum downstream industries lack demand improvement signals and are expected to maintain rigid procurement. After the holiday, as some non - aluminum industries resume work, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories may ease. There are new alumina device investments from the fourth quarter of this year to early next year, which gives an improvement expectation for the long - term supply and demand [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2428 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May are 2428 yuan/ton and 2533 yuan/ton respectively, down 36 yuan and 30 yuan. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4532 hands, down 3175 hands. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 329012 hands, an increase of 39319 hands, and the position is 111010 hands, an increase of 1784 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, up 31.25 yuan, and the basis is 166 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest are both 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 175 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 0 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali is 341 yuan/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina is 2870 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. As of October 9th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample factories in China was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56% [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% week - on - week to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% week - on - week to 66.63% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic caustic soda plants are still in the recovery phase, with few recent shutdown plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. The expected new production capacity from July to August is relatively high, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. The price of downstream alumina has rebounded, driving an increase in the enthusiasm of enterprises for复产, and there is still some room for the alumina operating rate to rise. The off - season for non - aluminum downstream industries continues, with weak demand. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly. Attention should be paid to the support around 2470 and the pressure around 2700 on the daily K - line of SH2509 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 2593 yuan/ton, and the futures trading volume decreased by 277186 hands to 752433 hands. The contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May decreased by 72 yuan/ton and 77 yuan/ton to 2629 yuan/ton and 2689 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions remained unchanged at 830 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region remained unchanged at 2593.75 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest remained unchanged at 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively. The price of steam coal remained unchanged at 638 yuan/ton [1]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton to - 400 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton [1]. Downstream Situation - The spot prices of viscose staple fiber and alumina remained unchanged at 12940 yuan/ton and 3220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. As of July 24th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29% [1]. Viewpoint Summary - The capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda plants is expected to continue to rise. The expected new production capacity from July to August is relatively high, and medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. The alumina operating rate has room to rise, while non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 fell 2.10% to close at 2466 yuan/ton. The supply - side saw new device overhauls in Central and East China last week and increased load in some devices in South and North China. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.1% to 80.4% with little change. On the demand side, the alumina start - up rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28% last week, and the average profit of alumina was 300.3 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 2.63% to 77.80% last week, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.29% to 59.9%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 37.43 tons last week with little inventory pressure. The planned overhaul capacity of caustic soda in July decreased. Recently, the downstream start - up of liquid chlorine increased, and the inverted situation of liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, which repaired the chlor - alkali profit and opened up the room for the increase of the caustic soda start - up rate. There are many stop and restart devices this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. The non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 2420 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the futures holding volume was 259,807 lots, an increase of 13,653 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 13,152 lots, a decrease of 8,447 lots; the futures trading volume was 762,212 lots, an increase of 243,118 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2451 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was 910 yuan/ton with no change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2625 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal was 636 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was - 49.5 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the spot price of alumina was 3150 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. As of July 10th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.64% compared with the same period last year [3].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda saw significant gains, with the main contract opening at 2435.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 2481.0 CNY, marking a 2.14% increase [1] - Weekly production of caustic soda from sample enterprises was approximately 789,800 tons, reflecting a 0.28% decrease week-on-week and a 1.52% decrease year-on-year [1] - Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons, although it remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The caustic soda operating rate was reported at 82.1%, down 0.2% from the previous week [2] - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong dropped by 250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 66.67% compared to earlier periods [2] - Despite a slight reduction in inventory, overall stock levels remain high, with limited increases in downstream delivery volumes [2] Group 3 - The overall supply of caustic soda remains sufficient, with limited demand growth, leading to a weak market outlook [1][2] - Key future considerations include the delivery volume from Weiqiao, inventory reduction, and the impact of aluminum production and exports [1] - The chlor-alkali industry is facing thin profit margins due to declining prices, necessitating caution regarding potential reductions in production [2]