1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic caustic soda plants are still in the recovery phase, with few recent shutdown plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. The expected new production capacity from July to August is relatively high, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. The price of downstream alumina has rebounded, driving an increase in the enthusiasm of enterprises for复产, and there is still some room for the alumina operating rate to rise. The off - season for non - aluminum downstream industries continues, with weak demand. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly. Attention should be paid to the support around 2470 and the pressure around 2700 on the daily K - line of SH2509 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 2593 yuan/ton, and the futures trading volume decreased by 277186 hands to 752433 hands. The contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May decreased by 72 yuan/ton and 77 yuan/ton to 2629 yuan/ton and 2689 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions remained unchanged at 830 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region remained unchanged at 2593.75 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest remained unchanged at 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively. The price of steam coal remained unchanged at 638 yuan/ton [1]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton to - 400 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton [1]. Downstream Situation - The spot prices of viscose staple fiber and alumina remained unchanged at 12940 yuan/ton and 3220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. As of July 24th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29% [1]. Viewpoint Summary - The capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda plants is expected to continue to rise. The expected new production capacity from July to August is relatively high, and medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. The alumina operating rate has room to rise, while non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 fell 2.10% to close at 2466 yuan/ton. The supply - side saw new device overhauls in Central and East China last week and increased load in some devices in South and North China. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.1% to 80.4% with little change. On the demand side, the alumina start - up rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28% last week, and the average profit of alumina was 300.3 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 2.63% to 77.80% last week, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.29% to 59.9%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 37.43 tons last week with little inventory pressure. The planned overhaul capacity of caustic soda in July decreased. Recently, the downstream start - up of liquid chlorine increased, and the inverted situation of liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, which repaired the chlor - alkali profit and opened up the room for the increase of the caustic soda start - up rate. There are many stop and restart devices this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. The non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 2420 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the futures holding volume was 259,807 lots, an increase of 13,653 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 13,152 lots, a decrease of 8,447 lots; the futures trading volume was 762,212 lots, an increase of 243,118 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2451 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was 910 yuan/ton with no change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2625 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal was 636 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was - 49.5 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the spot price of alumina was 3150 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. As of July 10th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.64% compared with the same period last year [3].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda saw significant gains, with the main contract opening at 2435.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 2481.0 CNY, marking a 2.14% increase [1] - Weekly production of caustic soda from sample enterprises was approximately 789,800 tons, reflecting a 0.28% decrease week-on-week and a 1.52% decrease year-on-year [1] - Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons, although it remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The caustic soda operating rate was reported at 82.1%, down 0.2% from the previous week [2] - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong dropped by 250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 66.67% compared to earlier periods [2] - Despite a slight reduction in inventory, overall stock levels remain high, with limited increases in downstream delivery volumes [2] Group 3 - The overall supply of caustic soda remains sufficient, with limited demand growth, leading to a weak market outlook [1][2] - Key future considerations include the delivery volume from Weiqiao, inventory reduction, and the impact of aluminum production and exports [1] - The chlor-alkali industry is facing thin profit margins due to declining prices, necessitating caution regarding potential reductions in production [2]