Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with short - term disk having no obvious driver and expected to be mainly oscillating [3] Core View - This week, the maintenance of caustic soda decreased, production increased, but the average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak, and the inventory of some sample enterprises increased. The cost of raw materials decreased, energy cost remained flat, and the overall chlor - alkali profit declined. The spot price was at a low level, and the disk price rebounded slightly. The short - term market is expected to be mainly oscillating [3][6] Summary by Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. This week, maintenance decreased and production increased by 0.3 tons to 850,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises was 87.4%, a 0.3% week - on - week decrease. Regionally, the chlor - alkali loads in North, Central, and East China decreased, while the load in Southwest Sichuan increased [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 88.43%, a 3.01% week - on - week increase. The comprehensive start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 60.09%, a 0.72% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Inventory**: Bearish. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 520,300 wet tons, a 2.11% week - on - week increase and a 110.11% year - on - year increase. The storage ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 30.02%, a 1.07% week - on - week increase. The storage ratios in North, Northwest, Central, East, South, Southwest, and Northeast China increased week - on - week. The sample warehouse inventory in Central China decreased by 4.76%, and that in East China decreased by 15.71% [3] - **Basis**: Neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around - 37, with the disk price at a premium [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. This week, the raw material cost decreased, energy cost remained flat, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased slightly, the price of caustic soda continued to decline, the weekly average price of liquid chlorine remained stable, and the overall chlor - alkali profit declined. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased to 100 yuan/ton [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The spot price is at a low level, the absolute disk price is low, and the main contract is at a slight premium [3] - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. There is no relevant policy for the time being [3] - **Investment View**: The short - term disk has no obvious driver and is expected to be mainly oscillating [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended for the time being [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - This week, the Shandong spot price fell, and the futures oscillated. The disk price rebounded slightly. On the supply side, the price of liquid chlorine dropped, the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was in the red, there was less maintenance, and the overall supply was high. On the demand side, it was the seasonal off - peak season, downstream demand was for rigid needs, traders' enthusiasm for stockpiling was weak, and export transactions were average. Shandong faced great inventory accumulation pressure, the spot price was not yet stable. The current trading was a game around cost, and the price of caustic soda was prone to fluctuations. It is recommended that investors stay on the sidelines [6] - The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts increased their positions [25] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - **Electricity Price**: Due to the tight supply of coal, the electricity price increased [33] - **Upstream Production**: The start - up remained at a high level, and inventory was destocked [35] - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [38] - **Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased [39] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42] - **Alumina**: The start - up of alumina recovered, and inventory was accumulated. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, port inventory of bauxite increased, alumina profit was poor but there was no significant production cut, and the supply of bauxite was in surplus [54][62] - **Non - aluminum Demand**: The non - aluminum industry entered the seasonal off - peak season, and the start - up declined. The printing and dyeing market was weak, and the short - term market recovery was weak [63][64] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate rebounded [71]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Some plant recoveries drive the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to increase month - on - month. Alumina's operating rate decreases month - on - month but the overall operating load remains high; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber and the printing and dyeing industry decline. Liquid caustic soda factory inventories accumulate month - on - month, higher than the same period in previous years. Affected by the decline in caustic soda prices, Shandong chlor - alkali profits narrow but remain in a theoretical profit state. In January, the planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali is small, and domestic chlor - alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises remains basically stable, and non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid demand purchases with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda in the spot market is still relatively loose, and the prices of the main purchase price and market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong have recently declined. There are many alumina plants planned to be put into operation in the first half of the year, but the continuous low - profit situation in the industry strengthens the expectation of future production cuts. Shaanxi may implement differential electricity prices in July, and the ECU cost in the northwest region is expected to rise. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support around 2150 and the pressure around 2330 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2261 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan; the main contract position of caustic soda is 162,076 lots, up 2,113 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 15,005 lots, down 458 lots; the main contract trading volume of caustic soda is 513,709 lots, up 169,482 lots; the closing price of the January contract is 1967 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2405 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 780 yuan/ton, unchanged; the converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2150 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the basis of caustic soda is - 111 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 150 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2585 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From December 27th to January 2nd, the capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda was 86.4%, up 0.4% month - on - month; the operating rate of alumina decreased 0.47% month - on - month to 84.67%, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased 1.61% month - on - month to 85.42%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased 0.47% month - on - month to 60.81%. The commodity market atmosphere is warm, and industrial products mainly rose during the day, with SH2603 rising 4.34% to close at 2261 yuan/ton. As of January 2nd, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 485,700 tons (wet tons), up 9.84% month - on - month. From December 25th to January 4th, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 153 yuan/ton, lower than the previous period [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is in a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. In the short - term, SH2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range around 2100 - 2300. Due to relatively loose supply and weak downstream demand, liquid caustic soda factory inventories have accumulated. Although the supply of caustic soda is expected to be high in December, the negative factors cannot be realized in the short - term. The planned commissioning of alumina plants in the first half of 2026 gives some support to the long - term price. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2250 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the main contract position is 159,783 lots, down 5,156 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 19,516 lots, down 4,283 lots; the main contract trading volume is 492,973 lots, up 149,306 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2150 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2358 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 790 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 0 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 247.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 75.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 200 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2,665 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. From December 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 1.11% week - on - week to 85%. From December 12th to 18th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 89.62%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.69% week - on - week to 62.06%. As of December 18th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34%. From December 11th to 18th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 216 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous week [3] 3.7 Outlook - A 300,000 - ton unit in East China will restart this week, and a 160,000 - ton unit in Southwest China will be under maintenance. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda is expected to increase slightly. There are few maintenance plans for chlor - alkali plants in winter, and the supply of caustic soda is expected to be high in December. The winter storage of aluminum plants downstream of alumina has ended and the raw material inventory is high, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry is expected to intensify. However, since enterprises have no large - scale inspection plans, the negative factors for caustic soda cannot be realized in the short - term. There are many alumina plants planned to be commissioned in the first half of 2026, which gives some support to the long - term price. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SH2601 contract of caustic soda is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to the low - level support around 2404 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 2501. The high warehouse receipts still suppress the futures price, and the market sentiment is weak due to the continuous Sino - US trade disputes [3]. - The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories is relatively high during the holiday, but the planned maintenance of North and East China devices this week may partially relieve the supply pressure. The demand for caustic soda from alumina enterprises is expected to remain stable in the short - term, while non - aluminum downstream industries lack demand improvement signals and are expected to maintain rigid procurement. After the holiday, as some non - aluminum industries resume work, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories may ease. There are new alumina device investments from the fourth quarter of this year to early next year, which gives an improvement expectation for the long - term supply and demand [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2428 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May are 2428 yuan/ton and 2533 yuan/ton respectively, down 36 yuan and 30 yuan. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4532 hands, down 3175 hands. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 329012 hands, an increase of 39319 hands, and the position is 111010 hands, an increase of 1784 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, up 31.25 yuan, and the basis is 166 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest are both 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 175 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 0 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali is 341 yuan/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina is 2870 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. As of October 9th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample factories in China was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56% [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% week - on - week to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% week - on - week to 66.63% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic caustic soda plants are still in the recovery phase, with few recent shutdown plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. The expected new production capacity from July to August is relatively high, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. The price of downstream alumina has rebounded, driving an increase in the enthusiasm of enterprises for复产, and there is still some room for the alumina operating rate to rise. The off - season for non - aluminum downstream industries continues, with weak demand. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly. Attention should be paid to the support around 2470 and the pressure around 2700 on the daily K - line of SH2509 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 2593 yuan/ton, and the futures trading volume decreased by 277186 hands to 752433 hands. The contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May decreased by 72 yuan/ton and 77 yuan/ton to 2629 yuan/ton and 2689 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions remained unchanged at 830 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region remained unchanged at 2593.75 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest remained unchanged at 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively. The price of steam coal remained unchanged at 638 yuan/ton [1]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton to - 400 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton [1]. Downstream Situation - The spot prices of viscose staple fiber and alumina remained unchanged at 12940 yuan/ton and 3220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. As of July 24th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29% [1]. Viewpoint Summary - The capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda plants is expected to continue to rise. The expected new production capacity from July to August is relatively high, and medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. The alumina operating rate has room to rise, while non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (from July 18 - 24, 2025), the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a 1.4% increase from last week. It is expected that next week's capacity utilization rate will remain around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [5]. - The alumina production in China this week was 1.831 million tons, showing an increase compared to last week's 1.792 million tons. The procurement price of liquid caustic soda by large - scale alumina factories in Shandong remained stable at 770 yuan/ton, with the equivalent 100% caustic soda price at 2,406 yuan/ton [5]. - The production of viscose staple fiber in the current cycle (from July 18 - 24, 2025) was 85,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week. The physical inventory of viscose staple fiber factories decreased by 3,200 tons compared to the previous period but increased by 79,900 tons year - on - year [5]. - As of July 24, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 58.9%, remaining the same as the previous period. The operating rate in the printing and dyeing industry was weak and volatile, and it is expected to remain at a low level in the next period [5]. - In May, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 255,900 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 75,000 tons [5]. - As of July 24, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a 6.38% increase from the previous period and a 4.29% increase year - on - year [5]. - Last Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,594 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was - 350 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 170 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [5]. - Last week, the spot price of caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated weakly. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda was relatively weaker than that of 32% liquid caustic soda. The price of liquid chlorine fluctuated sharply. The futures price of caustic soda first rose significantly and then fell back on Friday night [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises increased in most regions this week, with some regions having new maintenance or production reduction. Next week, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will remain stable around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [5]. - **Demand**: Alumina production increased, viscose staple fiber production increased slightly, the printing and dyeing industry was weak, and the export volume in May was reported. The demand from downstream industries was generally weak [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises increased both compared to the previous period and year - on - year, and the capacity - to - inventory ratio also increased in most regions [5]. - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong last week was at a historically low level [5]. - **Price**: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated weakly last week, and the futures price first rose significantly and then fell back [5]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the historical price trends of Shandong's 32% and 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, as well as the prices of raw salt and coal, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [7][10][13][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical data of China's weekly caustic soda production, operating rate, and device loss volume, as well as the cumulative production and its year - on - year changes [21]. - **Inventory and Profit**: It presents the historical data of the liquid caustic soda inventory of sample enterprises, caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong [24]. - **Maintenance Plan**: Lists the current and future maintenance plans of chlor - alkali devices in various regions [26]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: Displays the production, cash profit, liquid caustic soda procurement price, and inventory data of the alumina industry [29][32]. - **Textile Industry**: Presents the capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, and inventory - available days of viscose staple fiber, as well as the operating rate, order days, and finished - product inventory - available days of textile enterprises, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [35][38]. - **Paper Pulp and Paper Industry**: Shows the production of paper pulp and paper products, the inventory - available days of upstream factories' paper products, and the cumulative production and its year - on - year changes of Chinese machine - made paper and cardboard [41]. - **Export**: Displays the monthly and cumulative export volume data of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda in China [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 fell 2.10% to close at 2466 yuan/ton. The supply - side saw new device overhauls in Central and East China last week and increased load in some devices in South and North China. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.1% to 80.4% with little change. On the demand side, the alumina start - up rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28% last week, and the average profit of alumina was 300.3 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 2.63% to 77.80% last week, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.29% to 59.9%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 37.43 tons last week with little inventory pressure. The planned overhaul capacity of caustic soda in July decreased. Recently, the downstream start - up of liquid chlorine increased, and the inverted situation of liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, which repaired the chlor - alkali profit and opened up the room for the increase of the caustic soda start - up rate. There are many stop and restart devices this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. The non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 2420 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the futures holding volume was 259,807 lots, an increase of 13,653 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 13,152 lots, a decrease of 8,447 lots; the futures trading volume was 762,212 lots, an increase of 243,118 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2451 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was 910 yuan/ton with no change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2625 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal was 636 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was - 49.5 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the spot price of alumina was 3150 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. As of July 10th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.64% compared with the same period last year [3].