| | | 烧碱产业日报 2025-08-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) -29 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 2703 | 118465 | -7799 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -4467 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | -5818 | 507419 | -9330 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) -29 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2703 | 2793 | -2 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -4467 | -5818 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 860 | 900 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) 0 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2687.5 | -15 | 29 | | 上游情况 | 原盐:山东:主流价(日,元/吨) 0 原盐 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2732 | -9 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 126264 | 722 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -1351 | 6589 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 516749 | -58894 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2732 | -9 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2795 | -1 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) 6589 | -1351 | | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) 10 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 860 | | 900 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2688 | 32 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | -85 | -23 | | 上游情况 | 原盐:山东:主流价(日,元/吨) | 210 | 0 原盐 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the strong downstream demand for caustic soda drove the continuous rise of caustic soda futures. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted price of caustic soda futures reached 2,756 yuan/ton, a 4.51% increase from the previous week. The favorable fundamentals also led to an increase in both futures and spot prices of caustic soda [6][7][11]. - The caustic soda futures are expected to remain strong. After a pullback, long - position operations should still be considered [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Trend Review - Last week, the caustic soda futures continued to rise due to strong downstream demand. The weighted price of caustic soda futures closed at 2,756 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 4.51% from the previous week. In the spot market, the weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 836 yuan/ton, a 3.98% increase from the previous week [6][11]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Fundamental Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.2%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous week. There were different trends in different regions, such as a 3.9% decrease in the Northwest to 87.1% and a 0.1% increase in Shandong to 88.4% [15]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operation of the main downstream industries of caustic soda was generally stable. The alumina production remained stable, and the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.18% to 86.22% [18]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 396,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.46% decrease from the previous week. Inventory trends varied by region, with most regions experiencing inventory declines, while the inventory in the Northwest increased slightly [21]. - **Profit of Chlor - Alkali Enterprises in Shandong**: Last week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the price of caustic soda increased, and the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased. The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 349 yuan/ton, a 21.18% increase from the previous week [24]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Trend Outlook - **Liquid Caustic Soda**: In East China, major enterprises are expected to undergo maintenance this week, and non - aluminum stocking demand is increasing. The inventory pressure on enterprises is not significant, and the price of liquid caustic soda is expected to rise steadily. The price of liquid caustic soda in eastern Shandong may still increase [28]. - **Flake Caustic Soda**: The market in other domestic regions is mainly consolidating. In Inner Mongolia, the maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the new order quotes of manufacturers are expected to remain stable [9].

| 项目 | 2024年中报 | 2025年中报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 2.84亿 | 1.26亿 | -55.42% | | 归母净利润(元) | -6997.54万 | -8893.17万 | -27.09% | | 扣非净利润(元) | -7112.03万 | -9276.91万 | -30.44% | | 货币资金(元) | 7432.67万 | 5228.72万 | -29.65% | | 应收账款(元) | 1916.08万 | 1701.32万 | -11.21% | | 有息负债 (元) | 3.51亿 | 4.32 Z | 23.22% | | 手利率 | -3.83% | -25.84% | -573.95% | | 净利率 | -27.18% | -72.75% | -167.69% | | 三费占营收比 | 19.89% | 29.86% | 50.16% | | 每股净资产 (元) | 2.19 | 0.92 | -58.22% | | 每股收益(元) | -0.19 | -0.24 | -26.32% | | ...

2025年8月22日 证券研究报告 | 中观高频景气图谱（2025.8） 上游资源行业景气提振 策略研究 · 策略专题 证券分析师：王开 联系人：陈凯畅 021-60933132 021-60375429 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 目录 01 中观超额收益追踪 图1：基础化工行业超额收益与燃料油收盘价 图2：基础化工行业超额收益与甲醇期货收盘价 图3：基础化工行业超额收益与聚氯乙烯期货收盘价 图4：基础化工行业超额收益与国产氯化钾批发价 图5：基础化工行业超额收益与尿素批发价 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 期货收盘 价(连 续):燃料 油:月:平 均值:同 比 期货收盘 价(连 续):甲 醇:月:平 均值:同 比 期货收盘 价(连 续):聚氯 乙 烯 (PVC): 月:平均 值:同比 批发价: 国产氯化 钾:国内: 月:平均 值:同比 批 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 公司代码：600889 公司简称：南京化纤 第一节 重要提示 1.1本半年度报告摘要来自半年度报告全文，为全面了解本公司的经营成果、财务状况及未来发展规 划，投资者应当到www.sse.com.cn网站仔细阅读半年度报告全文。 1.2本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、完整 性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 1.3公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 1.4本半年度报告未经审计。 2.2主要财务数据 单位：元 币种：人民币 ■ 2.3前10名股东持股情况表 单位: 股 1.5董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 无 第二节 公司基本情况 2.1公司简介 ■ ■ 2.4截至报告期末的优先股股东总数、前10名优先股股东情况表 □适用 √不适用 2.5控股股东或实际控制人变更情况 □适用 √不适用 2.6在半年度报告批准报出日存续的债券情况 □适用 √不适用 第三节 重要事项 公司应当根据重要性原则，说明报告期内公司经营情况的重大变化，以及报告期内发生的对公司经营情 况有 ...

Group 1 - Glyphosate and other pesticide prices continue to rise, with glyphosate price at 26,699 CNY/ton as of August 17, up 300 CNY/ton from the previous week, and gross profit at 3,725.1 CNY/ton, up 317.9 CNY/ton [1][2] - Glyphosate weekly production is 0.7 million tons, down 16.24% from the previous week, and inventory is 28,500 tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons [2] - Prices of R32 and R134a refrigerants are increasing due to steady demand driven by high summer temperatures, with R134a at 51,000 CNY/ton, up 500 CNY/ton, and R32 at 57,500 CNY/ton, up 1,000 CNY/ton [2] Group 2 - Polyester filament and viscose staple fiber prices have slightly rebounded, with polyester POY at 6,775 CNY/ton, up 125 CNY/ton, and FDY at 7,100 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton [3] - Viscose staple fiber price is 12,950 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton, with manufacturers operating at high capacity due to improved demand [3] Group 3 - The civil explosives industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its end, with projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo project expected to boost domestic demand [4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is anticipated to help civil explosive companies expand overseas demand, with companies like Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, and Guangdong Hongda recommended for attention [4] Group 4 - Safety production accidents at key pesticide companies may disrupt industry supply, with companies like Yangnong Chemical and Xingfa Group suggested for monitoring [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the price increases of lithium carbonate and photoinitiators, suggesting a potential recovery in the chemical industry driven by anti-involution trends [1] - The basic chemical sector has shown strong relative performance, with a 39.4% increase over the past 12 months compared to the 25.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [3] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The report notes a decline in the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index to 92.75 as of August 14, 2025, down 0.11 from August 7, 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - Key opportunities identified include: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and others [5] 2. Improvement in industry prosperity for chromium salts, phosphate rock, and various chemical sectors [6] 3. Focus on new materials with high growth potential and low domestic substitution rates [7] 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and Sinopec [8] Price Analysis of Key Products - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 9.93% to 83,000 CNY/ton [10] - Photoinitiator (TPO) price rose by 5.56% to 95 CNY/kg [10] - Polyester filament price increased by 2.16% to 7,100 CNY/ton [10] Company Performance Tracking - Notable companies such as Zhenhua Co. reported a 10.17% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [13] - Wanhua Chemical's pure MDI price was reported at 17,900 CNY/ton, with a slight increase [11] Market Observations - The report indicates a potential inventory replenishment cycle in the chemical sector due to anticipated fiscal policy support in China and the US [29]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to profitability, indicating a potential new cycle as production expansion comes to an end and policies are implemented [1][7]. Industry Challenges - Since 2022, the chemical industry has faced price declines and increased competition, leading to many companies experiencing revenue growth without profit [2]. - Despite domestic demand stabilization from various policies, intensified competition and limited overseas demand have exacerbated price weakness and low capacity utilization, resulting in overall low profit levels [2][3]. Current Industry Position - The bottom position of the industry is considered relatively certain, with high concentration in most sub-industries limiting further optimization through concentration increases [3]. - The driving force of the chemical market is shifting from demand stimulation to supply-side reform, necessitating breakthroughs from the supply side to improve the supply-demand structure and promote high-quality development [3][6]. Self-Regulation and Policy Coordination - The current phase of the chemical industry's anti-involution process is at the initial stage of policy and industry assessment, with industry associations promoting self-regulation among companies [4]. - Historical experiences suggest that self-regulation effects are often short-lived, and temporary production cuts can lead to a rebound in operating rates, returning to a state of oversupply [4]. Specific Industry Insights - The polyester filament industry is entering a period of slow capacity growth, with profitability improvements driven by policies to eliminate about 10% of outdated capacity and joint production cuts by leading companies [5][6]. - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen no new capacity in the past five years, maintaining a stable supply-demand balance, with strict carbon emission policies curbing new capacity as a driving factor [5]. Future Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle as it shifts focus from market share to profit, with measures such as eliminating outdated capacity and enhancing industry self-regulation [7]. - The importance of pricing power is emphasized, as high concentration in many sub-industries means that if leading companies cease harmful competition, prices can stabilize and potentially gain global pricing power [7]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in major sectors like petrochemicals and coal chemicals, with a focus on sub-industries nearing cyclical turning points, such as polyester filament [7][8].

● 刘英杰 谭丁豪 当下化工行业供需错配，价格走弱、盈利承压。不过，开源证券研究所副所长、化工首席分析师金益腾 日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，随着扩产进入尾声、政策逐步落地，化工行业正从"要市占 率"转向"要利润"，有望开启周期新起点。 行业正面临多重挑战 金益腾表示，2022年以来，受供需错配影响，化工品价格持续走弱，竞争加剧导致企业盈利承压，不少 企业陷入"增收不增利"局面。 他表示，今年以来，尽管多项扩内需政策落地有望带动国内需求企稳修复，但供给端竞争进一步加剧、 海外需求提升空间有限，使得产品价格走弱、产能利用率走低问题愈发凸显，导致行业整体利润水平偏 低，多数企业迫切希望改善竞争格局以回归正常盈利水平，在反内卷浪潮下，新一轮供给侧改革势在必 行。 作为典型的周期性行业，化工行业的景气度波动有迹可循。2008年底至2015年，国际金融危机后的需求 刺激计划推动制造业景气度快速回升；2015年底至2020年中，供给侧结构性改革通过"三去一降一补"等 措施，显著提升了工业景气度；2020年底至2023年，我国率先从全球公共卫生事件冲击中恢复生产，叠 加出口需求旺盛、新能源产业高速发展及"双碳"目标推 ...