烧碱产业日报 2025-11-26 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2229 | -19 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 150260 | 5169 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -19656 | -2067 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 241509 | 79282 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2229 | -19 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2380 | -15 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -19656 | -2067 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 760 | 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日, ...

烧碱 :现货价格阴跌，盘面震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格阴跌，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱期货与32碱价格走势 -400 -200 0 200 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 06/19 07/29 09/07 10/17 基差 32碱-山东（折百） 主力合约 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.6%，较上 周环比+0.5%。分区域来看，华北、东北负荷均有上升，其中东北涨幅最大+2.9%至95.7%；华北+2.1% ...

烧碱产业日报 2025-11-18 利润持续，近期下游主力采购价下调，山东32%液碱市场价承压下跌。目前主力基差仍偏高，反映市场对 后市供需偏弱预期等待验证，关注12月氧化铝是否有集中减产计划。技术上，SH2601关注2250附近支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2286 | -5 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 149936 | -717 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -17632 | 63 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has limited changes and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is in a downward oscillation phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The current and expected supply - demand patterns are significantly different. The upstream has reported production this year, and the demand shows weakness. As winter approaches, the active de - stocking pressure of upstream enterprises may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the rebound of the futures market [2][4]. - It is recommended that production enterprises use options for inventory management, trade enterprises consider building inventory and use options for procurement and inventory management, and terminal customers use options for procurement and inventory management according to their own situations [2]. - Key data to focus on include the commissioning of downstream alumina plants, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the maintenance information of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, and the marginal changes in the inventory of caustic soda plants [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, mainly including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The low - concentration caustic soda market price in the region weakened week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda decreased from 807 yuan/ton (converted to 2521.875 yuan/ton of 100% caustic soda) at the beginning of the week to 801 yuan/ton (converted to 2512.5 yuan/ton of 100% caustic soda) at the end of the week. The supply in Shandong was relatively sufficient, and the demand from alumina enterprises had a certain inhibitory effect on the market [11]. 3.2 Spread 3.2.1 Model Spread - The spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, showed different trends over time [29]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - The regional spreads of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi also had different performance trends [29][33]. 3.3 Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national production capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 877,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 367 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 88.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%. The maintenance arrangements in the chlor - alkali market this week are less, and the supply has increased [40]. 3.3.1 Load and Output - The weekly operating rates and outputs of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda showed different trends over time [41][45]. 3.3.2 Maintenance Situation - Many chlor - alkali enterprises have experienced long - term shutdowns, maintenance, and restarts. This week, the expected impact on the output of 100% caustic soda is 19,420 tons. Some enterprises also have future maintenance plans [48]. 3.3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operating Conditions - The operating conditions of flake caustic soda plants of different manufacturers vary, including normal operation, under - capacity operation, and maintenance [52]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Alumina: The supply decreased slightly this week. As of November 13, the built - in production capacity of alumina in China was 118 million tons, the operating production capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54% [55]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry from November 7 - 13, 2025 was 89.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1% [55]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of November 13, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The overall operating rate of dyeing factories showed differentiation, and the order situation was not good [55]. 3.5 Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants in China was 254,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%, and the inventory of flake caustic soda plants was 37,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The market demand did not improve significantly, and the inventory showed an increasing trend [74]. 3.6 Valuation - Cost side: The price of industrial salt in China remained stable this week, and the price of thermal coal increased slightly. The production cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity, with electricity accounting for about 60% of the total cost [78]. - Profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the spot side weakened week - on - week [79]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report also provided price, operating rate, and profit data of PVC, epoxy propane, and epichlorohydrin, which are chlorine - consuming downstream products [87][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has limited changes and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. The price center of caustic soda is expected to decline in the later stage. The current and expected supply - demand patterns contrast significantly. The upstream has production and inventory strategies. Demand is weakening, and as winter approaches, the upstream's active de - stocking pressure may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the rebound of the futures market [2][4]. - Different market participants are recommended different hedging strategies. For example, producers can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can sell put options and buy call options for procurement and inventory management; end - customers can buy call options to prevent price increases when purchasing and buy put options to protect inventory value [2]. - Key data to monitor include the commissioning of downstream alumina plants, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the maintenance status of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, and the marginal changes in caustic soda factory inventories [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in the region weakened week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda decreased from 807 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2521.875 yuan/dry ton) at the beginning of the week to 801 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2512.5 yuan/dry ton) at the weekend. The supply in Shandong was relatively sufficient, and the demand from alumina enterprises had a suppressing effect on the market [11]. 2. Price Difference 2.1 Model Price Difference - The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi, as well as between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, showed different trends. The data showed fluctuations over time [29]. 2.2 Regional Price Difference - The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions (such as Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong) were presented, and the data updated daily [29][33][39]. 3. Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national production capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 877,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 367 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 88.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%. There were fewer maintenance arrangements in the chlor - alkali market this week, and the overall supply increased [40]. - The operating rates and outputs of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda were presented with weekly data. Some chlor - alkali enterprises had maintenance, resumption, or planned maintenance, which affected the production volume. For example, some enterprises in Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, etc. had maintenance or resumed production, and some enterprises in Xinjiang, Shandong had planned maintenance [41][45][48]. 4. Downstream Demand - Alumina: The supply of alumina decreased slightly this week due to maintenance in Guangxi and Shanxi. As of November 13, China's alumina production capacity was 118 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54% [55]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry from November 7 - 13, 2025, was 89.50%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to last week [55]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of November 13, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The overall operating rate of dyeing factories was polarized, with large - scale factories maintaining over 60% and small - and medium - sized factories generally dropping to around 50%. Orders were insufficient [55]. 5. Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 254,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 37,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The market demand did not improve significantly, and the inventory of some factories increased [74]. 6. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market price remained stable this week, and the thermal coal market price increased slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market weakened compared to last week [78][79]. 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - Information on the prices, capacity utilization rates, and production profits of PVC, propylene oxide, and epichlorohydrin was presented, including their historical data and update frequencies [87][96].

资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1468.28万元，特大单买入692.30万元，占比6.57%，卖出1910.21万元， 占比18.13%；大单买入1878.14万元，占比17.82%，卖出2128.51万元，占比20.20%。 吉林化纤今年以来股价涨16.34%，近5个交易日跌0.94%，近20日涨4.48%，近60日涨1.94%。 今年以来吉林化纤已经2次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为5月19日，当日龙虎榜净买入1.36亿元； 买入总计2.78亿元 ，占总成交额比10.86%；卖出总计1.43亿元 ，占总成交额比5.57%。 11月14日，吉林化纤盘中下跌2.10%，截至09:54，报4.20元/股，成交1.05亿元，换手率1.02%，总市值 103.27亿元。 资料显示，吉林化纤股份有限公司位于吉林省吉林市经开区昆仑街216号，成立日期1988年11月9日，上 市日期1996年8月2日，公司主营业务涉及粘胶纤维的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：粘胶长丝 56.30%，粘胶短纤24.55%，碳纤维产品16.83%，其他2.31%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 吉林化纤所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学纤维-粘胶。所属概 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of new cotton is increasing significantly this year, but the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The demand is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, and the previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will likely fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [6]. - The US cotton is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton is also predicted to show a volatile trend. For trading strategies, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 25, 30, and 35 respectively. The trading volume of CF01, CF05, and CF09 decreased by 109,232, 48,335, and 1,748 hands respectively. The open interest of CF01 decreased by 1,984, while that of CF05 increased by 3,646 and CF09 increased by 352. The CY01 contract remained unchanged, and CY05 and CY09 had no trading volume [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The Cot A price was 75.40 cents/pound. The prices of some other products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. had different changes [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 5 (up 5), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 175 (up 5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 180 (down 10). In cotton - yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was 19,790 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 month spread was 0 (unchanged), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 19,790 (unchanged). The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,300 (up 25). The 1% tariff - based internal - external cotton spread was 1,627 (up 37) [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On November 13, 2025, the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, remaining unchanged. On November 12, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.23 yuan/kg (unchanged), and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.87 yuan/kg (down 0.05 yuan/kg). As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5%, with the northern region at 100%, the southern region at 97.5%, and the eastern region at 98.8% [4][5]. - **Trading Logic**: With new cotton hitting the market in large quantities in November, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The demand is in a relatively off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Sino - US trade policies need to be closely monitored [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to move sideways. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. - **Cotton - Yarn Industry News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a bearish trend last night, with high hedging pressure. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, mainly for rigid demand. The downstream orders were decreasing, and most manufacturers lacked confidence in the future. The current operation rate remained stable, and the inventory increased slightly. The all - cotton grey fabric market had a differentiated trading situation, with limited orders and difficulty in price increase [9]. Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: On November 13, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option, the closing price was 168.00 (up 2.4%), the implied volatility (IV) was 7.7%. For the CF601P13000.CZC option, the closing price was 21.00 (down 16.0%), the IV was 10.5%. For the CF601P12400.CZC option, the closing price was 6.00 (down 33.3%), the IV was 15.4% [11]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [9][13]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and cotton inter - period spreads [15][18][22][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that in November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is abundant, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The market is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, and orders have been mediocre recently. However, previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will likely fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. Additionally, upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: In the cotton futures market, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 45, 35, and 30 respectively. The trading volume of CF01 and CF05 increased by 111532 and 52444 hands respectively. In the棉纱 futures market, the CY01 contract decreased by 65, and the CY05 and CY09 contracts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B spot price increased by 7 yuan/ton, while the CY IndexC32S decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of other spot products such as Cot A, FC Index:M: to - port price, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Price Spreads**: In the cotton and棉纱 markets, various price spreads, including inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, showed different degrees of change. For example, the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of cotton decreased by 10, and the CY01 - CF01 spread decreased by 20 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - The Xinjiang cotton road transport price index remained flat on November 12, 2025, with a slight increase in transportation demand and available capacity. It is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - On November 11, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton and hand - picked cotton purchase indices decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang ranges from 5.3 to 6.1 yuan/kg, and the purchase progress in some areas is over 80% [4]. - As of November 10, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 3.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41%. The proportion of cotton from different sources changed, with an increase in Brazilian and Australian cotton and a decrease in US cotton [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply of new cotton is increasing, and although there is a large - scale increase in production this year, the increase may be less than expected. The demand is in the off - season, and orders are mediocre. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate, and Sino - US trade policies need attention [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side Trading**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Previous long positions should take profits [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated weakly, and cotton yarn futures followed the same trend. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened, with new orders insufficient. High - count yarn export orders are better, while domestic orders are average. Spinning mills' yarn prices are stable [9]. - The cotton textile market has not changed much recently, with trading being differentiated. The profit of fabric mills is around the break - even point, and the inventory of all - cotton fabric mills has decreased slightly. Fabric mills purchase cotton yarn according to orders [9]. 3.3 Options - **Option Data**: The report provides data on option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, including contract prices, yields, and Greeks (Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta). The implied volatility of different option contracts varies [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report includes multiple graphs, such as the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The SH2601 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the range estimated to be around 2300 - 2410. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to rise quarter - on - quarter. Although the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories has decreased significantly, the pressure is still relatively high. The cost has increased due to the strong thermal coal price, and the chlor - alkali profit has narrowed. The decline in the alumina plant's operating load is not significant, and the supply of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is relatively loose with a stable market price. The current high basis of the main contract reflects the market's expectation of weak future supply and demand, which awaits verification [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan. The position of the main contract of caustic soda is 136,689 hands, an increase of 742 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 18,733 hands, a decrease of 8,515 hands. The trading volume of the main contract of caustic soda is 363,722 hands, an increase of 5,442 hands. The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan, and the closing price of the May contract is 2505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan, and in Jiangsu is 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2468.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 656 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan, and in Jiangsu is 225 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan, and the spot price of alumina is 2795 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.5% quarter - on - quarter to 84.8%. From November 1 to 7, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.61% quarter - on - quarter to 85.25%. From October 31 to November 6, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.04% quarter - on - quarter to 89.60%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.26% quarter - on - quarter to 68.06%. As of November 6, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 6.29% compared with last week to 414,800 tons. From October 31 to November 6, the weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased to 464 yuan/ton [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格企稳，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-10 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格企稳，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.8%，较上 周环比+0.5%。分区域来看，西北、东北、华南负荷均有上升，其中东北涨幅最大+27.9%至88.9%；华南+5.8%至89.1%。华北、华中有装置检修、减产， | | | | 开工下滑，华北-1.5%至76.5%，华中-3.0%至79.1%，其中山东-1.9%至87.2%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有 ...