1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.7% to 84.6% week - on - week; the downstream alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. The national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 4.93% to 52.54 tons, with production enterprises in North China actively accumulating inventory due to bullish expectations. The prices of caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the chlor - alkali profit increased to 323 yuan/ton. The increase in 50 - alkali exports boosted the spot market atmosphere, but due to the strong liquid chlorine price and the repair of chlor - alkali profit, there were few planned maintenance devices in April, and the improvement of domestic supply - demand was limited. The daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2200 - 2350 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the futures holding volume was 201,115 hands, an increase of 11,137 hands; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was 3,254 hands, an increase of 1,960 hands; the futures trading volume was 427,939 hands, an increase of 106,468 hands. The closing price of the January contract was 2,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 737 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,303 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 37 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 222.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%. From March 21st to 27th, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%; from March 20th to 26th, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. As of March 26th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 525,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 4.93% and a year - on - year increase of 14.28%. The SH2605 contract fell 4.13% to close at 2,250 yuan/ton. Market expectations are that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will ease. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong from March 20th to March 26th was 323 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - duty quotas is likely to benefit US cotton, narrowing the domestic - foreign price difference. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton. Although cotton has declined due to the overall market atmosphere, the decline is expected to be limited [6]. - In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton change little. It is advisable to build long positions on dips rather than chasing highs. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: - CF01 closed at 15,605, down 25; CF05 at 15,150, down 60; CF09 at 15,255, down 50; CY05 at 21,285, down 15; CY09 at 21,250, up 15. CY01 had no trading [2]. - The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed to varying degrees, with significant decreases in the trading volume of CF05 and CF09 [2]. - **Spot Market**: - CCIndex3128B was 16,722 yuan/ton, down 99; CY IndexC32S was 22,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; A (Cot) was 79.35 cents/pound; FCY IndexC33S was 22,628 yuan/ton, up 60 [2]. - The prices of other products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Price Spreads**: - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 455, up 35; 5 - 9 spread was - 105, down 10; 9 - 1 spread was - 350, down 25 [2]. - Cotton - yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 21,285, up 15; 5 - 9 spread was 35, down 30; 9 - 1 spread was 21,250, up 15 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was (15,605), up 25; CY05 - CF05 was 6,135, up 45; CY09 - CF09 was 5,995, up 65 [2]. - Domestic - foreign spreads: The 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,699, down 701; the sliding - duty domestic - foreign cotton spread was - 1,331, down 338; the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 578, down 60 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: - As of March 17, the drought index of the main US cotton - producing areas decreased slightly, but the drought level in the main areas and Texas remained relatively high. Drought is expected to continue from March to June, with intensification in the Midwest and relief in the eastern regions [4]. - On March 23, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton road transportation price index was 0.1553 yuan/ton·km, down 1.46% month - on - month. The index may fluctuate due to energy price changes [4]. - Pakistani yarn mills raised domestic yarn prices due to rising raw material costs and potential increases in energy expenses. Export yarn inquiries increased, and the prices of 20/21 and 30/32 combed yarns rose by 7% and 5% respectively compared to early March. The price of polyester staple fiber rose by 13% [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - duty quotas is likely to benefit US cotton and narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, with limited impact on domestic cotton supply. Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton. Although cotton has declined due to the overall market atmosphere, the decline is expected to be limited [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton change little. It is advisable to build long positions on dips rather than chasing highs [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. - **Cotton - yarn Industry News**: - Spinning enterprises are actively purchasing raw materials. The pure - cotton yarn market has good trading, but downstream orders are weakening. Spinning enterprises are reluctant to lower prices, and the transaction price center has little change [8]. - The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change, with continuous sales. Weaving factories have ongoing orders, mainly for domestic sales. Export inquiries are active, but orders need further confirmation. Fabric prices are stable, and factories are trying to reduce inventory [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price difference, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [9][11][15][16][18][19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish, as the report anticipates significant production cuts due to the impact of the US-Iran conflict [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The US-Iran conflict has disrupted the supply, causing the caustic soda futures to fluctuate and rise. The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy factors of caustic soda, and concludes that there is an expectation of significant production cuts in the future, leading to a bullish investment view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.3 tons to 85 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises was 83.9%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The US - Iran conflict may lead to production cuts in coastal chlor - alkali plants. [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 90.14%, a 0.05% increase from last week. The average operating rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang was 50.83%, a 7.50% increase from the previous data and a 13.34% increase year - on - year. In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda export volume was 309,638.3 tons, a 2.4% increase year - on - year and a 69.3% increase month - on - month; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 3,429,614.7 tons, a 31.6% increase year - on - year. [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a 6.28% decrease from the previous week and a 20.22% increase year - on - year. The inventory ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 28.02%, a 2.39% decrease from the previous week. The inventory ratios in major regions decreased. The sample warehouse inventory in Central China increased by 3.57%, while that in East China decreased by 17.83%. [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 481, with the futures price at a significant premium. [3] - **Profit**: During this period, raw material and energy costs were stable, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased, the price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased significantly, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was adjusted to 150 yuan/ton. [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is neutral, and the main contract is at a large premium. [3] - **Macro - policy**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC, and some chlor - alkali plants are facing shutdown. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies are proposed currently. Key risks to monitor include changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession. [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - This week, the spot price in Shandong slightly increased, while the futures price rose significantly. On the supply side, liquid chlorine rebounded, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was in the red, there was less maintenance, and enterprises reduced production less, resulting in relatively high overall supply. On the demand side, downstream demand was average, with rigid procurement, and traders had a weak willingness to stockpile, but export transactions were good. The inventory accumulation in Shandong was better than expected, with less inventory pressure, and enterprises were more willing to hold prices. However, the US - Iran conflict has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC plants, and some plants are planning to shut down or reduce production, which is expected to lead to a shortage of caustic soda supply in the future. [7] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal prices have stabilized, and electricity prices are fluctuating within a range. [36] - **Upstream Production**: The production capacity utilization rate remained high, and inventory decreased. [39] - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased. [42] - **Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has decreased. [43] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina has declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak. [46] - **Alumina**: The supply - demand balance of alumina has been restored, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has increased, alumina profit is poor but there has been no significant production cut, and the supply is in surplus with a large increase in factory bauxite inventory. [58][66] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum demand is weak, and the operating rate is at a low level. In the printing and dyeing industry, large dyeing factories mainly execute fixed - customer orders, while small and medium - sized dyeing factories rely on scattered small orders, resulting in a weak overall market operating rate. [68] - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: The in - plant inventory and capacity utilization rate data are presented. [77] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The operating rate has rebounded. [78]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of caustic soda futures has been rising, driven by a decline in supply and an increase in exports. The core driving logic is the significant fluctuation of crude oil prices leading to large - scale fluctuations in chemical futures prices, and chemical futures are affected by cost support, supply decline, and export increase. The conflict between the US and Iran has led to difficulties in ethylene exports from the Middle East, causing overseas PVC plants to reduce their loads, and domestic PVC enterprises that purchase ethylene externally have also reduced their loads, resulting in a passive reduction in the load of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, which in turn has led to a significant increase in the export demand for domestic caustic soda. Although the price of high - concentration liquid caustic soda has risen significantly, the price of low - concentration liquid caustic soda remains relatively stable. There is a situation where the downstream has difficulty accepting high prices in chemical futures trading. It is expected that there will be a certain number of warehouse receipts, which will put pressure on the spot and futures markets. In the later stage, the logic of supply shortage and export volume increase still exists, but attention should be paid to the profit - taking of long positions and the basis regression when the overseas caustic soda procurement sentiment fades [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Supply**: In the week of 20260313 - 0319, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. The chlor - alkali load in North China and Central China declined, while in South China, the load increased due to the resumption of some previously overhauled equipment in Guangxi. In Southwest China, the local load declined because two new chlor - alkali equipment were put into trial operation without commercial output. It is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load will remain around 84% next week [5]. - **Demand**: As of March 19, 2026, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 52.57%, a week - on - week increase of 2.42%. The startup rate in Shaoxing was 52.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.56%. The current dyeing factories are under the pressure of increased dyeing fees, and the downstream weaving's willingness to receive goods has weakened, leading to a market stalemate. The orders of dyeing factories are mainly "short - term and long - term less", and the proportion of long - term foreign trade orders continues to decline. Enterprises generally produce according to orders and stock up cautiously. The domestic market still has a rigid demand for spring and summer fabrics, but due to the high price of weaving raw materials and limited new orders, the bargaining space of dyeing factories has narrowed. It is expected that the startup rate of some small and medium - sized dyeing factories may decline at the end of the month, and the industry differentiation will intensify further [5]. - **Export**: From January to February, the export volume of caustic soda was 626,300 tons, including 480,500 tons of liquid caustic soda and 145,800 tons of flake caustic soda [5]. - **Inventory**: As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.28% and a year - on - year increase of 20.22%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China this week was 28.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.39%. The storage capacity ratios of liquid caustic soda in the Northwest, North China, Central China, East China, and South China regions have all declined [5]. - **Profit**: This Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,153 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was 150 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 206 yuan/ton, which is at a historically low level. The weak performance of both chlorine and caustic soda has led to a low comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali [5]. 2. Price - **Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Price**: The report provides historical price data of Shandong 32% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price, the price difference between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, Shandong liquid chlorine price, and Shandong 50% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price from 2023 to 2026 [7][8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda and Export Caustic Soda Price**: It shows the historical price data of Shandong flake caustic soda from 2023 to 2026 and the FOB price of caustic soda in East China from 2024 to 2026 [10][11]. - **Caustic Soda Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - Month Spread**: The report presents the historical price data of the main caustic soda futures contract, the basis of the main 32% caustic soda contract in Shandong, the basis of the main 50% caustic soda contract in Shandong, and the spread between SH04 - SH05 contracts from 2024 to 2026 [12][13]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Price**: It provides the historical price data of Shandong sea salt market price from 2022 to 2026, Shandong well - mine salt market price from 2024 to 2026, and Qinhuangdao steam coal closing price from 2022 to 2026 [15][16]. 3. Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply**: The report shows the historical data of China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda plant loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production from 2022 to 2026 [18][19]. - **Caustic Soda Overhaul Situation**: This week, Hubei Yihua in Central China, Leshan Fuhua in Southwest China, and Fujian Huanyang in East China are undergoing overhauls. In the future, Kesai Chemical in Central China, Baililian in Central China, Shandong Jinmao in North China, Shanxi Yushe in North China, and Jiangsu Haixing in East China have overhaul plans [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit**: It provides the historical data of China's sample enterprises' liquid caustic soda inventory, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt quantity, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt (dry tons), and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profit from 2022 to 2026 [23][24]. 4. Demand - **Alumina Industry**: The report shows the historical data of China's alumina production, Shandong alumina production, alumina production in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan, alumina spot price in Shandong, Shandong alumina enterprise's liquid caustic soda purchase price, electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, alumina plant's alumina inventory (excluding Xinjiang), and alumina in - transit inventory from 2022 to 2026 [27][28][30][31]. - **Textile Industry**: It presents the historical data of viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, East China viscose staple fiber market price, viscose staple fiber factory inventory, Chinese cotton yarn enterprise's viscose staple fiber inventory available days, Chinese textile enterprise's weekly startup rate, Chinese textile enterprise's order days, Chinese textile enterprise's in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang region's dyeing factory startup rate from 2022 to 2026 [33][34][36][37]. - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: The report shows the historical data of pulp production, paper product production, upstream factory's paper product inventory available days, and China's machine - made paper and cardboard cumulative production from 2021 to 2026 [38][39]. - **Export**: It provides the historical data of China's monthly liquid caustic soda export volume, monthly flake caustic soda export volume, cumulative caustic soda export volume, and monthly caustic soda export volume from 2021 to 2026 [41][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the caustic soda market prices generally increased, with a slight contraction in supply and a slight decline in demand. Chlor - alkali enterprises' profits turned from profit to loss, and the losses expanded. The prices of Shandong 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and Wuhai 99% flake caustic soda increased by 2.18% and 3.45% respectively. The weekly average prices of low - and high - concentration liquid caustic soda in various regions all rose, and the prices in the main flake caustic soda production areas generally increased, except for a slight decline in Ningxia. The national chlor - alkali enterprise operating load rate dropped to 89.54%, and the caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity decreased to 871,200 tons. The maintenance loss doubled. The liquid caustic soda inventories in Shandong and East China decreased, and the production of flake caustic soda produced by the molten salt method slightly increased. The operating rates of alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.22 and 4.54 percentage points respectively, and the overall downstream demand was tepid. In terms of profitability, enterprises with self - owned power plants in Shandong had an average loss of 7.52 yuan/ton for ECU, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 204.13 yuan/ton, mainly because the decline in liquid chlorine prices exceeded the increase in liquid caustic soda prices. Currently, there are many export inquiries, and there is still room for price increases in 32% caustic soda. With the continuous and escalating overseas conflicts, it is expected that caustic soda will fluctuate next week [4]. - The trading strategies are: for unilateral trading, caustic soda will fluctuate; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Conditions**: This week, the caustic soda market prices generally increased. The supply slightly contracted, and the demand slightly declined. Chlor - alkali enterprises' profits turned from profit to loss, and the losses expanded. The prices of Shandong 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and Wuhai 99% flake caustic soda increased by 2.18% and 3.45% respectively. The weekly average prices of low - and high - concentration liquid caustic soda in various regions all rose, and the prices in the main flake caustic soda production areas generally increased, except for a slight decline in Ningxia [4]. - **Supply**: The national chlor - alkali enterprise operating load rate dropped to 89.54%, and the caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity decreased to 871,200 tons. The maintenance loss doubled. The liquid caustic soda inventories in Shandong and East China decreased, and the production of flake caustic soda produced by the molten salt method slightly increased [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.22 and 4.54 percentage points respectively, and the overall downstream demand was tepid [4]. - **Profitability**: Enterprises with self - owned power plants in Shandong had an average loss of 7.52 yuan/ton for ECU, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 204.13 yuan/ton, mainly because the decline in liquid chlorine prices exceeded the increase in liquid caustic soda prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: caustic soda will fluctuate; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Alumina Market**: This week, the domestic alumina spot prices continued to rise, and the increase expanded. Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the expected tightening of Guinea's ore export policy, the industry is worried about the impact of global inflation expectations and the increase in medium - term alumina production costs, so some downstream enterprises increased their procurement appropriately. This week, the operation of national alumina enterprises was relatively stable, with only normal maintenance of the roasting furnaces of individual southern alumina enterprises. Currently, most alumina enterprises using imported ores use 60 - 62 US dollars per ton of ores. With the support of the rising domestic spot prices, the industry's profits have been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. As of this Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 93.7 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 81.7%. Excluding 10 million tons of zombie production capacity (production capacity that has not been in operation for more than a year), the operating rate this week was 89.7%. Next weekend, one alumina enterprise in Guizhou and one in Guangxi will carry out planned roasting furnace maintenance, with an expected maintenance time of about 10 - 12 days. At the same time, a new alumina project in Guangxi is about to start production, and it is expected that finished products will be produced in mid - to late April. With the co - existence of maintenance and new production in the southern market, there are expectations for adjustments in the market supply situation [18]. - **Caustic Soda Market**: The caustic soda market prices generally increased this week. The supply slightly contracted, and the demand slightly declined. Chlor - alkali enterprises' profits turned from profit to loss, and the losses expanded. With the continuous and escalating overseas conflicts, it is expected that caustic soda will fluctuate next week [4]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 6.28% from the previous week and an increase of 20.22% year - on - year. This week, the inventory - to - capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 28.02%, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous week. The inventory - to - capacity ratios of liquid caustic soda in the northwest, north, central, east, and south regions all declined. In the north region, the overall inventory of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was under no pressure under the drive of export order inquiries and the overall bullish market sentiment. The sales performance of low - concentration caustic soda in each factory varied, but after the price increase stabilized, most of them basically maintained a balance of rigid demand. However, the purchase price of the main downstream has not been adjusted, and after the factory did not have continuous price increases, the mentality of some industry players has changed. But judging from the current inventory - to - capacity ratio of Shandong liquid caustic soda, the inventory pressure is not large. Overall, the inventory in the north region showed a decline. In the east region, due to the continuous positive situation in the high - concentration caustic soda market, the downstream buying sentiment was strong, and the enterprise inventory decreased rapidly, which drove up the price of low - concentration caustic soda, and enterprises appropriately reduced their inventory. Therefore, overall, the inventory in the east region showed a decline after the Spring Festival. In the south region, driven by the rising price of northern caustic soda, with the downstream's buying sentiment, the regional inventory - to - capacity ratio showed a decline. In the central region, with the continuous increase in the price of goods from southwest Shandong, the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, the actual transaction price in Henan increased, and an enterprise in Hubei was under maintenance, resulting in a shortage of liquid caustic soda supply, and the inventory in the central region decreased. In the northwest region, the sales atmosphere of liquid caustic soda was good, the non - aluminum demand increased, the sales of high - concentration caustic soda improved, some enterprises executed previous orders, the price of liquid caustic soda continued to rise, and the liquid caustic soda inventory decreased. In the southwest region, the chlor - alkali profit continued to increase, the enterprise operation rate increased, the impact of external goods decreased, the downstream demand was stable, the price of liquid caustic soda in the southwest region increased, and the liquid caustic soda inventory fluctuated slightly [13]. - **Production**: This week (March 13 - 19, 2026), the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 83.9%, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. During the week, the chlor - alkali loads in the north and central regions declined, while in the south, the load in Guangxi increased due to the resumption of some previously maintained equipment. In the southwest, due to the trial operation of two newly added chlor - alkali equipment without commercial output, the local load declined. Next week, there will be both equipment maintenance and expected partial restart in the north region, and most of the maintenance in other regions is concentrated in April. Therefore, it is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load will remain around 84% next week [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of import processing trade sliding - scale tariff quotas for cotton is likely to be beneficial to US cotton, leading to a narrowing of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton [5]. - In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly, and Zhengzhou cotton shows a strong technical trend. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips instead of chasing high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15,880 with a price increase of 75, and the CY05 contract closed at 21,485 with a price decrease of 80 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn spot products are provided. For instance, the CCIndex3128B was priced at 16,884 yuan/ton with a price increase of 36, and the CY IndexC32S was priced at 22,000 with no price change [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads and their changes in cotton and cotton yarn across different periods and varieties are given. For example, the spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month cotton contracts was 400 with a price increase of 10 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - On March 16, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - bound cotton decreased by 1.69% month - on - month. It is expected to show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term [4]. - From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 8.6079 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products were 283.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [4]. - The total amount of sliding - scale tariff processing trade quotas for cotton imports in 2026 is 300,000 tons, and they are issued on a contract - based application basis [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of sliding - scale tariff quotas is beneficial to US cotton. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton shows a strong technical trend. Consider building long positions on dips instead of chasing high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is good, with high - and medium - count yarns selling well, while low - count yarns and rotor - spun yarns are weak. Downstream fabric mills have few long - term orders, but due to unstable factors such as geopolitical and oil prices, they are more willing to purchase raw materials. The overall price is stable, and inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of orders in April and the trend of Zhengzhou cotton [7]. - The market of all - cotton grey fabrics continues, and the overall quotation is stable. The in - machine orders of fabric mills can be continuously produced, and the order time has been extended. The current operating rate of fabric mills is 60% - 70%, and the inventory of grey fabrics is about 25 days. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease in March, but the decline rate will slow down [7]. Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: The data of several cotton option contracts, including the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, etc., are presented. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC contract closed at 334.00 with a price decrease of 16.9% [9]. - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, and the implied volatilities of several option contracts are also provided [9]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [13][16][20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on caustic soda investment [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the conflict between the United States and Iran, there is an expectation of significant production cuts in the future, leading to a bullish outlook on caustic soda [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance has decreased, and production has increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production has increased by 0.3 tons to 85 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises is 85.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1%. The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded, and coastal chlor - alkali plants are expected to cut production due to raw material issues [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production has declined, and non - aluminum demand is weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 90.14%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang is 50.83%, an increase of 7.50% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 13.34%. In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda exports were 309,638.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3,429,614.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6% [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 534,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 30.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The inventory in the central China sample warehouse has increased by 21.74%, while that in the eastern China sample warehouse has decreased by 12.78% [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 666, and the futures price is at a significant premium [3] - **Profit**: During the week, raw material and auxiliary material costs decreased, energy costs increased slightly, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased significantly, and the overall chlor - alkali profit increased. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been adjusted to 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is neutral, and the main contract is at a significant premium [3] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded, causing a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC, and some chlor - alkali plants are facing shutdown [3] - **Investment View**: Bullish, as the conflict between the United States and Iran is expected to lead to significant production cuts in the future [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended for now [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - This week, the spot price in Shandong has slightly increased, while the futures price has increased significantly. On the supply side, liquid chlorine prices have rebounded, the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is in the red, there is less maintenance, and enterprises have less load reduction, resulting in relatively high overall supply. On the demand side, downstream customers resist high prices and make purchases based on rigid demand. Traders have a weak enthusiasm for stockpiling, but export transactions are good. The inventory accumulation in Shandong is better than expected, the inventory pressure is small, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. However, the conflict between the United States and Iran has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC plants, and some plants are planning to shut down or reduce their loads. As a co - product, caustic soda is also facing shutdown or load reduction, which is expected to lead to a shortage of caustic soda supply in the future [6] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal prices have stabilized, and electricity prices are fluctuating within a range [33] - **Upstream Production**: The production capacity utilization rate remains at a high level, and inventory is being depleted [36] - **Production in Main Production Areas**: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased [39] - **Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [40] - **Downstream Prices**: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [43] - **Alumina**: The supply - demand balance of alumina has been restored, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has increased. Alumina profit is poor, but there has been no significant production cut. The supply is in surplus, and the bauxite inventory of factories has increased significantly [55][61] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the startup rate is at a low level. The printing and dyeing market is weak, and the short - term market recovery is乏力 [62][63] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The startup rate has rebounded [71]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 6.07% this week, indicating strong market performance [10][17] - The prices of chemical products showed mixed trends, with 103 products increasing and 34 decreasing in price over the past week [18] - The U.S. has canceled tariffs on fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs, which may positively impact clothing exports [21] - The U.S. signed an executive order recognizing the strategic value of phosphorus chemical products, potentially leading to a revaluation of their market [5][33] Summary by Sections Chemical Market Tracking and Event Commentary - The chemical industry index rose to 5211.18 points, up 7.15% from the previous week, while the CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) increased by 0.02% to 4041 points [10][17] - A total of 472 out of 545 stocks in the chemical sector saw weekly gains, representing 86.61% of the sector [17] Key Product Tracking - Urea prices increased to an average of 1799 RMB/ton, up 29 RMB/ton (1.64%) from the previous period [38] - Phosphate rock prices remained stable, with 30% grade averaging 1016 RMB/ton [39] - The average price of ammonium phosphate was stable at 6506 RMB/ton [40] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in the chemical sector [7] - Beneficiary stocks include satellite chemical and Dongfang Shenghong [7][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 6.07% this week, indicating strong performance in the sector [10][17] - The cancellation of tariffs on fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. is expected to benefit apparel exports, which may positively impact the chemical fiber market [21][22] - The U.S. has signed an executive order recognizing the strategic value of phosphorus chemical products, which may lead to a reassessment of their market value and price increases in the long term [5][33] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index reported a 7.15% increase this week, with 86.61% of stocks in the sector rising [10][17] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) increased by 0.02%, reaching 4041 points [12][20] Key Product Tracking - Urea prices have risen, with the average price at 1799 CNY/ton, up 29 CNY/ton from the previous period [38] - Phosphate rock prices remained stable, with 30% grade averaging 1016 CNY/ton [39] - The average price of ammonium phosphate (industrial grade) is stable at 6506 CNY/ton [40] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical [7] - Beneficiary stocks include Yantai Chemical and Dongfang Shenghong [7][22]

Group 1: Construction and Building Materials - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the resumption of work after the holiday, with expectations for a strong start in Q1 2026, driven by the release of projects and investment growth [2][7] - Historical analysis of previous five-year plans indicates that infrastructure investment typically shows a pattern of "high at the beginning, stable later," with the first half of the "14th Five-Year Plan" demonstrating this clearly [2][7] - In Q4 2025, Honglu Steel Construction achieved a production volume of 1.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.94%, indicating a significant return on the past three years of investment in automation [8] Group 2: Non-Banking Financial Institutions - China Life Insurance reported a 54.8% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 91.5% increase in net profit for Q3, reaching 298.7 billion yuan and 126.9 billion yuan respectively [12][13] - The company’s new business value (NBV) grew by 41.8% year-on-year, reflecting strong sales performance and improved sales capabilities [14][15] - The total investment return rate increased by 104 basis points to 6.42%, attributed to a rise in equity investments and successful participation in market opportunities [15] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Exchange - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported a 37% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 45% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 21.9 billion HKD and 13.4 billion HKD respectively [19][20] - The average daily trading amount (ADT) for stock securities products increased by 150% year-on-year, indicating strong market activity [20] - The exchange continues to implement strategic measures to enhance market vitality, including the introduction of new trading facilities and adjustments to trading fees [21][22] Group 4: Basic Chemicals - Sanyou Chemical is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 0.91 billion yuan in 2025, a decline of 82% year-on-year due to falling prices of soda ash, caustic soda, and organic silicon [26][27] - The report highlights the potential recovery in the viscose staple fiber industry, with no new capacity added in recent years and a significant increase in profitability expected from price increases [27][28] - The report suggests that the profitability of soda ash and caustic soda may have bottomed out, with market dynamics indicating a potential recovery in the future [29][30] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Hongchuan Wisdom is expected to report a net loss of 4.4 to 4.7 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting challenges in the chemical storage business due to decreased demand [31][32] - The chemical industry is showing signs of recovery, with increased production activity and improved demand expected to enhance profitability in the future [33] - The company is positioned as a leader in chemical storage, with ongoing capacity expansion through self-built and acquired facilities [34]