刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 2026 年 03 月 03 日 焦炭：宽幅震荡 焦煤：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发酵，宽幅震荡 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2605 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 1094 | 涨跌(元/吨) 0. 5 | 涨跌幅 0. 0% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1652 | 16. 5 | 1.0% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 896153 | 545543 | -4204 | | | | 12605 | 18576 | 40374 | 230 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1520 | 1520 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫王佳 | 1483 | 1483 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1120 | 1120 | 0 | | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 焦炭：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 焦煤：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1096 | 15. 5 | 1.4% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1 655 | 6. 5 | 0. 4% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 898934 | 499345 | -2636 | | | | 12605 | 18752 | 36738 | 1564 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1500 | 1500 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1403 | 1403 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1153 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market is in a state of shock and stability, waiting for new drivers. The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with potential iron - water production stabilization in January. The coking coal and coke market is still weak, with increased game for the fourth round of price cuts. The iron ore market has a stable iron - water production and rising port inventory, and the price range is expected to be limited [3][5][68][119] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron - water production decline narrows, with a weekly increase of 0.03 to 226.58wt. Scrap steel daily consumption decreases slightly. Steel mill production profits improve slightly in December compared to November. There may be some resumptions of production in January, but the scale will not be large [5] - **Demand**: From an industrial data perspective, the supply - demand structure is weak. From a market perception perspective, speculative demand is light. After January, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils improves slightly, medium - and cold - rolled plates are stable, and building material demand is weaker than the same period [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products continues to decline, mainly due to the stable decline in steel production. The inventory - to - sales ratio of rebar and wire rod is stable, hot - rolled coils improve, and medium - and cold - rolled plates remain stable. The inventory of plate products is slow to decline [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils shrinks, and that of rebar remains the same. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 122; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 13, a weekly decrease of 14 [5] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits rise slightly, but the profitability is still low. The profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a weekly increase of 1.3% [5] - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage. The industrial relative valuation is neutral [5] - **Macro and Risk Preference**: Commodities have shown good performance recently. The black metal market has signs of stabilization [5] - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Unilateral trading can follow a shock - based approach. After January, the market capital is expected to be more abundant, and the cash - and - carry arbitrage of hot - rolled coils can be rolled [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Use a range - based approach. Arbitrage: Consider widening the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar when it is below 150. Cash - and - carry: Roll the cash - and - carry arbitrage of hot - rolled coils [5] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The steel market has weak supply and demand, which is unfavorable to furnace materials. However, the weakening trend slows down, and inventory is still being depleted. The profitability rate of steel mills rises, and iron - water production shows signs of stabilization [68] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Some coal mines reduce production after completing their annual plans in mid - December. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and port inventory exceeds 3.8 million tons. Seaborne coal prices continue to rise, and the price gap between domestic and foreign markets widens [68] - **Coke Supply**: Coking production is stable, and profits are around the break - even point. There is still a game for the fourth round of price cuts [68] - **Inventory**: All links of coking coal and coke have inventory accumulation. Downstream procurement is cautious [68] - **Basis/Spread**: The third - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation for the fourth round. The Mongolian coal basis cost is around 1100 [68] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23% (a weekly increase of 1.30%), and coking profit is - 18 (a weekly decrease of 34) [68] - **Summary**: The black metal sector is in shock, and coking coal and coke are still weak. The market is expected to be in shock, and the willingness of funds to participate is weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production of domestic coal mines in January [68] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Wait and see. Arbitrage: Wait and see [68] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipping volume rebounds by 39.5 tons per day to 5.13 million tons per day. The arrival volume in China rebounds by 18,000 tons per day [119] - **Demand**: Steel mill iron - water production remains stable, and the profitability ratio rises slightly. According to the maintenance plan, iron - water production is expected to be stable, with a demand for increase in January [119] - **Inventory**: The daily average port - clearing volume of 47 ports decreases slightly, but the arrival pressure is large, and port inventory rises by 1.1406 million tons, hitting a new high for the year [119] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are at a low level [119] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [119] - **Summary**: Iron - water production shows signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. Under the influence of supply and demand, port inventory will continue to rise, and the upward pressure on price is obvious. The price range is expected to be limited [119] - **Investment View**: Neutral [119] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Wait and see. Arbitrage: Wait and see [119]

财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-11-24 煤矿缓慢复产，双焦期价大幅下跌 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1103，周跌幅 7.47%，现货市场主流地区报价偏 弱运行。 研究员 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1614.5，周跌幅 3.29%，现货市场主流地区报价 第四轮提涨 50-55 元/吨落地。 姓名：申伟光 【基本面分析】 焦煤： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 86.9%，环比上升 0.6%； 精煤日均产量 75.8 万吨，环比增加 0.1 万吨。全国 314 家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 37.6%，环比上升 0.2%；精煤日均产量 27.6 万吨，环比增加 0.2 万吨。上周，煤矿 主产地安全监管及环保督察等方面依然较严格，国内前期停限产的煤矿开始逐渐复 产，产量逐渐回升，部分地区原煤供应小幅增加。库存方面，近期焦煤价格偏弱， 市场情绪降温影响，下游拉运积极性下降，炼焦煤矿山和独立洗煤厂精煤库存开始 累库，特别是炼焦煤矿山精煤库存大幅累库。 需求端：钢厂高炉开工率仍维持相对高位，焦钢企业仍有补库需求，对炼焦煤 刚性需求仍存。焦炭第四轮 ...

财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-11-03 煤矿端供应持续收紧，双焦期价震荡偏强 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2601 合约周五收于 1286，周涨幅 3%，现货市场主流地区报价偏强运 行。 研究员 需求端：焦炭第二轮提涨落地，对焦煤价格有支撑作用，虽钢厂高炉开工率下 降但仍维持相对高位，焦钢企业仍有补库需求，对炼焦煤刚性需求不减。焦化企业 近期有所限产，焦企产能利用率略有下降，独立焦企焦煤库存继续累库。但焦钢企 业盈利状况不佳，多数仍维持按需采购为主。从焦煤线上竞拍来看，焦煤成交价格 上为主涨，成交率较高。 综合看：上周焦煤供应及需求小幅下降，从盘面看，上周焦煤 2601 合约震荡 偏强运行，短期关注 1330 附近压力位。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 数据来源：同花顺、wind，mysteel、财达期货研发部 第 1 页 共 5 页 F03088716 投 资 咨 询 号 ： Z0019628 财达期货｜ 焦煤焦炭周报 上周焦炭 2601 合约周五收于 1777，周涨幅 1.11%，现货市场主流地区报价提 涨 50-55 元/吨落地。 姓名：申伟光 从 业 资 格 号 ： 【基本面分析】 焦煤： 供应 ...