Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a continued increase in coking coal prices in China and Australia, driven by supply and demand dynamics in the market [1][4]. Price Trends - As of August 18, 2025, the comprehensive coking coal price index in China reached 1357.36 CNY/ton, an increase of 157.43 CNY/ton or 13.12% month-on-month [1][2]. - The price for Australian premium coking coal at the Jing Tang Port was reported at 1530.00 CNY/ton as of August 22, 2025, up by 110.00 CNY/ton or 7.75% from the previous month [1][2]. - The Platts price index for hard coking coal at the Peakview Mine was 203.00 USD/ton, reflecting a rise of 14.40 USD/ton or 7.64% month-on-month [1][2]. - Coking coal futures prices increased to 1162 CNY/ton as of August 22, 2025, up by 113.5 CNY/ton or 11% from the previous month [2]. Inventory Levels - The total coking coal inventory at three ports (Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian) decreased to 254.99 million tons as of August 22, 2025, down by 30.85 million tons or 10.79% month-on-month [2][5]. - The inventory of coking coal at 247 steel mills increased to 812.31 million tons, up by 12.80 million tons or 1.60% month-on-month [2]. Independent Coking Plants - The inventory of coking coal at 230 independent coking plants decreased to 823.94 million tons, down by 17.27 million tons or 2.05% month-on-month, but up by 178.56 million tons or 27.67% year-on-year [3]. - The average available days of coking coal at these plants fell to 11.80 days, a decrease of 0.40 days or 3.28% month-on-month [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises rose to 74.42%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points month-on-month [3]. Production Data - In July, the monthly production of coke reached 41.855 million tons, an increase of 15.2 thousand tons or 0.36% month-on-month [3]. - The monthly production of pig iron was 70.7974 million tons, down by 110.77 thousand tons or 1.54% month-on-month [3]. - The monthly production of crude steel decreased by 4.24% month-on-month [3]. Conclusion - The report concludes that coking coal prices in China and Australia continue to rise, with futures prices showing a significant rebound from 719 CNY on June 3 to 1162 CNY on August 22, marking a cumulative increase of 61.6% [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The price index for coking coal in China has increased, with a reported price of 1357.36 CNY/ton as of August 18, 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 157.43 CNY/ton, or 13.12% [9][10] - Coking coal inventory at three major ports has decreased, totaling 2.5499 million tons as of August 22, 2025, down by 308,500 tons, or 10.79% from the previous month [17][20] - The production capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises has risen to 74.42%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points month-on-month [2][28] Summary by Sections Coking Coal Prices - The comprehensive coking coal price index in China reached 1357.36 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 157.43 CNY/ton, or 13.12% as of August 18, 2025 [9] - Prices for coking coal from major sources, including Australian coking coal, have also risen, with the price at 1530.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7.75% increase [12][13] Inventory Levels - The total coking coal inventory at three major ports (Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian) has decreased to 2.5499 million tons, a reduction of 308,500 tons, or 10.79% month-on-month [17][20] - Independent coking plants have reported a total coking coal inventory of 8.2394 million tons, down by 172,700 tons, or 2.05% month-on-month [2][20] Production Metrics - The average available days of coking coal for independent coking plants decreased to 11.80 days, down by 0.40 days, or 3.28% month-on-month [2][20] - Coking enterprises' production capacity utilization rate increased to 74.42%, up by 0.97 percentage points month-on-month [2][28] - Coking production in July reached 41.855 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 15,200 tons, or 0.36% [28][32]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the coal industry, specifically focusing on the thermal coal market in China for 2025 and beyond [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the thermal coal market is expected to have a loose supply, with coal mine supply recovering faster than downstream demand post-Spring Festival, leading to a rapid price drop in February [1][2]. - As of April 2025, the CCI 5,500 thermal coal price at ports was 657 RMB/ton, which is 22 RMB/ton lower than the medium to long-term contract price, marking a four-year low for pit coal prices [1][2]. - The total coal production capacity is projected to reach 6.3 billion tons by the end of 2024, with thermal coal accounting for 4.9 billion tons, ensuring supply security [1][4]. - In March 2025, national raw coal production increased by 9.6% year-on-year, with key regions (Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia) contributing 81.73% of the total [1][4]. Price Trends - The overall trend for thermal coal prices in 2024 was a stepwise decline, with prices expected to remain under pressure in the second half of 2025 due to weak demand and high inventory levels [2][4]. - The average price for thermal coal in 2025 is projected to be around 680 RMB, with potential short-term rebounds due to production resumption and increased output [12][13]. Import and Export Insights - In 2024, coal imports reached a record high of 543 million tons, a 14% increase year-on-year, with thermal coal imports at 420 million tons [6]. - For 2025, total coal imports are expected to decrease to approximately 525 million tons, a 3.4% decline from the previous year [6]. Inventory Levels - As of April 2025, inventory levels across various sectors are high, with 345.4 million tons held by 100 key enterprises, a 9.65% increase year-on-year [10]. - Northern ports reported a 30.42% increase in inventory, while coastal provinces showed a slight decrease of 2.62% [10]. Sector-Specific Demand - The demand from the cement industry continues to decline, while the chemical sector shows better performance, driven by new capacity for products like methanol [8][9]. - The share of thermal power generation is expected to decrease from 70% in 2023 to 61% by 2025, as non-fossil energy sources grow [3][7]. Additional Important Insights - The coal mining sector is experiencing a significant increase in production, but the phenomenon of "quantity compensating for price" is not widespread [5]. - The profitability of coal mines varies by region, with some areas like Shanxi facing higher production costs leading to losses, while others like Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia remain profitable [11][21]. - The relationship between inventory levels and coal prices is complex, with high inventory levels currently exerting downward pressure on prices [15][16]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the coal industry, focusing on supply-demand dynamics, price trends, import/export data, inventory levels, and sector-specific demand changes.