Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have continued to rise, exceeding 830 CNY/ton, but a short-term peak may be reached [1] - The core reason for the recent coal price increase is a fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics since May [1] - The coal production for October was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly due to government intervention against "involution," with production from July to October showing a continuous decline [1] - The total electricity consumption in August and September increased by 4.6%, a significant recovery from the 2.5% growth in Q1, indicating strong demand [1] - Despite entering the typical demand off-season, demand has remained unexpectedly high, particularly in East China [1] Group 3: Market Insights - As of November 14, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 837 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the previous week [2] - The focus on domestic supply stability and reduced imports is expected to maintain a steady decline in total supply for the year [2] - The operating rate of major coking enterprises was reported at 79.18%, indicating a slight increase [2] Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [3] - Other recommended companies include Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that coal prices are nearing a short-term peak, with a slight decline expected as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited. The coal production in China has shown a continuous year-on-year decline from July to September, influenced by the government's intervention in the coal sector [1]. Supply Side - The coal production in China for July, August, and September was 380 million, 390 million, and 410 million tons respectively, showing a year-on-year decline. For Q4, production is expected to slightly decrease due to "overproduction checks," maintaining a monthly output of 390-400 million tons from October to December, with an annual production estimate of around 4.75 billion tons, down by 30-50 million tons year-on-year [1]. Demand Side - The total electricity consumption in society from August to September has increased to 4.6%, a significant rise from the 2.5% growth in Q1. The annual growth rate is expected to exceed 5%. Despite entering the typical demand off-season in September and October, demand has shown unexpected strength, with daily consumption in East China reaching the highest level in the past five years [2]. Thermal Coal - As of October 31, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port in Northern China was 778 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week. Domestic supply is stable while imports continue to decline. The overall supply is expected to maintain a steady decline, while demand has significantly improved, leading to a potential rebound in Q3 profitability [3]. Coking Coal - As of October 31, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Daily iron and steel production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain strong despite the off-season [4]. Industry Review - As of October 31, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton (0.0%), while the price of port-level coking coal was 1718 yuan/ton (3.3%). The total inventory of coking coal across three ports was 2.837 million tons (5.4%), with a utilization rate of 73.44% for coking enterprises with inventories over 200,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The offshore price of Q5500 coal at Newcastle Port in Australia increased by 1 USD/ton (2.0%), while the cost of domestic Q5500 coal was 15 yuan/ton higher than that of imported coal [5].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in the second quarter of 2025, with a reversal in the supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Since the price increase began on September 15, coal prices have exceeded 770 yuan per ton as of last week, showing an unexpected upward trend driven by multiple favorable factors [1] - From a short-term perspective, current coal prices are nearing a short-term peak, and a slight decline may occur as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited [1] Group 2: Weather Impact - The specific trend of coal prices during winter will require continuous monitoring of this year's weather conditions, as weather intensity will directly affect short-term price fluctuations [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The core reason for the recent rise in coal prices is a fundamental reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will not change [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in the supply-demand pattern and sufficient release of downside risks [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short-term supply and demand factors have led to an unexpected rise in coal prices, which exceeded 770 RMB/ton as of last week, marking a significant upward trend since September 15 [2] - The coal supply has contracted significantly due to government intervention against "involution," with national production figures for July to September at 380 million, 390 million, and 410 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline [2] - Demand has rebounded sharply, with total electricity consumption growth reaching 4.6% in August and September, compared to only 2.5% in Q1, and is expected to exceed 5% for the year [2] Price Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 778 RMB/ton, reflecting a 4.7% increase from the previous week [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 RMB/ton, up 3% week-on-week, indicating a rebound in both futures and spot markets [3] Industry Review - As of October 24, 2025, the price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 3%, while the inventory of coking coal across three ports decreased by 7.7% [4] - The offshore price of Newcastle Q5500 coal rose by 2 USD/ton, while the cost of domestic coal remains lower than that of imported coal by 10 RMB/ton [4]