Report Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆ (Predicted to trend upwards with the trend fermenting on the market) [1] - **Silicon Ferros**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] Core Views - The steel market has small supply - demand contradictions, with the market sentiment being cautious, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and their prices are likely to fluctuate strongly due to market expectations of coal - related policies [4][6]. - The silicon manganese market has a fragile balance in manganese ore port inventory, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - The silicon ferros market is relatively strong due to policy influence, and demand remains resilient. It is also recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures market continued to fluctuate narrowly. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded, production slightly declined, and the inventory accumulation slowed. The demand for hot - rolled coils improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and molten iron increased in the short term, but its sustainability is to be observed. From the downstream industries, real estate investment decline continued to expand, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall. The overall domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports reached a new high in December [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remained high in the short term, and port inventory continued to increase. The structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off - season improved month - on - month, some blast furnaces that had regular maintenance before resumed production, and molten iron production increased from a low level. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased continuously but was still at a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment still exists. The sentiment in the commodity market was volatile, and the fundamental situation of iron ore was relatively loose [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. The coke transaction price increased sporadically, the coking profit was average, and the daily production increased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Attention should be paid to whether the downstream procurement volume will increase next week, and the purchasing intention of traders was average. Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the current demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing down raw material prices is still strong. The coke futures price is at a premium, but the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,519 trucks. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the resumption of production after the New Year's Day was good. The spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the transaction price increased slightly driven by the rising futures price. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly, with the production - end inventory rising sharply. Similar to coke, the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron is likely to bottom out and rebound. The current demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level, the steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing down raw material prices is still strong. The coking coal futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. Driven by the futures market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The spot transaction prices of manganese ore increased last week. On the demand side, the molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [7]. Silicon Ferros - The silicon ferros price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee increased, and there were certain expectations of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has resilience. The supply of silicon ferros decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES provides operation ratings for various commodities on January 13, 2026. The ratings are as follows: Threaded steel (★★★), Hot-rolled steel (★★★), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Silicon manganese (★★☆), Silicon iron (★★☆) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of range-bound oscillation. The demand for downstream industries is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient, but there is still support below [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation still exists. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a strong - oscillation state. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to buy on dips. The silicon manganese has a structural problem in port inventory, and the silicon iron is affected by relevant policies and has certain demand resilience [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillates. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declines, and the inventory accumulates. The demand for hot - rolled steel falls, and the inventory is slowly depleted. The steel mill's profit is marginally repaired, and the blast furnace is gradually restarted. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the range - bound oscillation pattern may continue [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillates. The global shipment decreases seasonally, the domestic arrival volume increases, and the port inventory accumulates. The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the iron - water production is at the bottom, and it is difficult to resume production significantly in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increases, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation exists. The market sentiment is volatile, and the short - term oscillation is expected [3] Coke - The coke price oscillates downward during the day. The transaction price rises sporadically, the coking profit is average, and the daily output slightly increases. The inventory hardly changes. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillates downward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1520 vehicles. The coking coal mine output slightly decreases, and the spot auction transaction improves. The total inventory increases significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillates. Driven by the futures rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises. There is a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory. The iron - water production decreases seasonally, the weekly output of silicon manganese slightly decreases, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price oscillates. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production rebounds, the export demand decreases, and the secondary demand increases marginally. The supply decreases significantly, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron Ore: ★★☆, representing a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, meaning a long bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a long bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★★☆, representing a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is still optimistic, but the weak demand restricts the upside space. The steel market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern, and the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be strongly volatile, while silicon manganese and silicon iron are recommended to buy on dips [1][2][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market rebounded today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread continued to decline, production slightly increased, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined, production continued to increase slightly, and inventory was slowly depleted. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces were gradually restarted, and hot metal production increased in the short term, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The overall market sentiment is optimistic, and the market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market rose slightly today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally and were still strong year - on - year. Brazilian shipments decreased significantly, Australian shipments were basically flat, and the volume sent to China increased. The supply from non - mainstream regions improved. Domestic port inventory increased significantly last week and is expected to continue to accumulate. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, blast furnaces that had regular maintenance have restarted, and hot metal production increased last week. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has been increasing continuously, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated upward during the day. Coke transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. The carbon element supply is abundant, downstream hot metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and currently, the demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong. Coke prices on the market are at a premium, and prices are likely to be strongly volatile [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated upward during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,252 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the resumption of production after the New Year's Day was good. Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and transaction prices increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, downstream hot metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and currently, the demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong. Coking coal prices on the market are at a premium to Mongolian coal, and prices are likely to be strongly volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices dropped significantly during the day. Driven by the market rebound, manganese ore spot prices increased. There is a structural problem with manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon - manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The manganese ore spot transaction prices increased last week. On the demand side, hot metal production decreased seasonally. Silicon - manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices dropped significantly during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, prices are relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a certain decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. On the demand side, hot metal production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand is still resilient. Silicon - iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]