Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing a new cycle with multiple favorable catalysts leading to prices exceeding expectations. The latest data shows coking coal port prices rising to 1,710 RMB, indicating strong demand post-National Day holiday, contrary to earlier predictions of a demand drop [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Coal Price Trends**: Recent significant price increases have been observed, with Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal thermal coal prices rising by 39 RMB this week, marking the largest weekly increase this year. Coking coal prices at ports have increased by 80 RMB [2]. - **Inventory Levels**: As of October 16, power plant inventories across 25 provinces are approximately 130 million tons, down 1.5% year-on-year. The inventory at Bohai Rim ports has also decreased, but the overall inventory situation is neutral to optimistic due to the upcoming heating season [4]. - **Import and Supply Dynamics**: September coal imports fell by 3.3% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 11.1% over the first nine months. The fourth quarter is expected to see lower import volumes compared to the previous year, indicating potential supply tightness [6][7]. - **Challenges in Supply**: The fourth quarter faces challenges such as increased safety inspections and adverse weather conditions, which may tighten supply further [9]. - **Demand Factors**: Industrial electricity demand remains strong due to companies rushing to meet deadlines ahead of new tariffs on Chinese goods. Non-electric coal demand, particularly from the steel industry, is also robust [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Energy Market Impact**: Despite a decline in Brent and WTI crude oil prices, coal futures in Europe have risen, indicating a supportive trend for the domestic market [5]. - **Hydropower Performance**: Hydropower has shown improvement since September, but is expected to decline as it enters a dry season, reducing its impact on thermal power [8]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to increase positions in coal stocks, shifting focus from leading blue-chip stocks to more elastic stocks. Key companies to watch include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and Lu'an Environmental Energy [12][13]. Specific Company Recommendations - **Thermal Coal**: Recommended companies include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group, Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. Yanzhou is highlighted for its strong performance in both A and H shares and its growth potential from new mining projects [13][15]. - **Coking Coal**: Lu'an Environmental Energy is recommended for its significant earnings elasticity in coking coal, along with Pingmei Shenma Group, Huaibei Mining, and Shanxi Coking Coal, which have high growth potential [14]. Conclusion - The coal market is poised for a strong performance in the coming months, driven by robust demand and tightening supply. Investors are encouraged to capitalize on this opportunity by focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential.

迎接煤炭新周期 - 反内卷预期再催化 20250921 摘要 非电用煤需求回升是近期煤价上涨的主要驱动力，尤其是在三伏天结束 后，下游需求复工对煤炭价格形成支撑，港口主焦煤价格上涨 130 元/ 吨。 北方港口煤炭库存仍处于低位，预计 10 月下旬大秦线检修结束前难以 明显回升，加剧供应紧张，为价格上涨提供条件，但全国电厂库存季节 性回升。 水电发电量增加对火电形成替代效应，以及进口煤环比增长 20%，可能 对国内煤炭市场产生一定压力，但高品质动力煤的结构性紧缺缓解有限。 7 月和 8 月全国原煤产量同比降幅收窄，但山西省产量降幅扩大，受强 安监和产能核查影响，预计四季度山西省原煤供应仍偏紧。 中央环保督查强化山西省环保、安全和合规生产要求，预计下半年山西 省原煤产量同比不会明显增加，进一步收紧供给。 内蒙古能源局通报 299 处煤矿产能核查情况，发现 93 处存在超能力生 产问题，但短期整改对整体生产干扰有限，长期来看，部分预核增产能 的民营矿井可能面临退出风险。 陕西省加强煤矿安全监察，联动山西和内蒙收缩供给，叠加需求恢复， 预计国内煤炭供应趋紧，若明年需求不疲软，价格中枢将抬升，对未来 一段时间煤炭价格 ...

价格寻底，布局右侧 - 迎接煤炭新周期 20250824 摘要 煤炭价格涨幅放缓，当前价格为 704 元/吨，但前期产能核查政策预期 见顶，叠加部分上市公司中报业绩不佳，导致资金抛压增加，板块承压。 主产地 7 月煤炭产量环比下降明显，晋陕蒙新等地减量 3,507 万吨，同 比下降 11.3%，新疆地区产量亦有接近 30%的降幅，安全检查趋严及 降雨天气亦限制供给。 尽管面临日耗回落、政策预期见顶及业绩不佳等短期利空，但逆向思维 下，利空出尽或是配置良机，A 股整体行情向好背景下，板块配置性价 比提升。 煤炭主产地降雨量显著增加，叠加矿难及阅兵活动安检趋紧，短期内煤 炭供给将持续收紧，进口煤增加或部分抑制价格上涨。 长江中下游高温持续，电煤日耗需求维持高位，水电出力下降支撑火电 需求，非电用煤需求亦保持高位，预计 9 月非电需求恢复将推动煤价偏 强运行。 推荐优先选择弹性标的，炼焦煤关注潞安环能、华北矿业、平煤股份和 山西焦煤，动力煤关注兖矿能源，其次是三梅国际、进矿煤业和陕西煤 业。 物流总包模式强化规模效应，大型主体受益，国铁公司与重点企业签订 大量物流总包合同，发改委规范铁路运输合同，均利好大型煤炭企业 ...