迎接煤炭新周期 - 库存再降与预期升温 20260201 摘要 原油价格上涨及地缘政治风险提升煤炭配置性价比，历史数据显示煤炭 和原油价格长期趋同，当前煤炭价格被低估，具备上涨潜力。 中国神华 2025 年业绩符合预期，预计 2026 年集团资产注入后业绩将 增长 10%，市值有望达到 1 万亿元，股息率在 A 股和 H 股分别为 4.4% 和 4.7%。 山西焦煤 2025 年业绩同比下降，但预计 2026 年炼焦煤价格将提升， 业绩拐点可期。盘江股份 2025 年业绩超预期，四季度盈利接近 4 亿元， 未来发展潜力看好。 2026 年煤炭行业整体业绩预期乐观，煤价小幅上涨预期下，产销情况 将显著改善。国资委对上市公司市值管理的考核也将激励管理层释放业 绩。 近期动力煤价格上涨，炼焦煤价格持平，产地煤价普遍上涨，反映出需 求向好。电厂库存下降，日耗水平上升，黄骅港库存下降，均利好煤炭 价格。 二月份寒潮预计将维持电厂高日耗，供应端收窄将加剧供需错配，利好 动力煤和炼焦煤价格，短期内反弹趋势有望延续。 看好中国神华全年价值，推荐兖矿能源作为年度金股，关注淮北矿业等 成长性强且具有确定性拐点的公司，以及受益于市 ...

迎接煤炭新周期 - 煤价分化与龙头并购解读 20251221 摘要 中国神华拟收购资产包，交易对价 1,335.98 亿元，包含对化工公司增 资 49.27 亿元，整体溢价率 59.52%，剔除增资部分溢价率约 50%， 市净率约为 1.5 倍，低于上市公司 A 股当前 2.0 倍的 PB 水平，收购价 格相对合理。 支付方案中，70%以现金支付（约 93.935 亿元），30%通过发行股份 支付（总金额 400.8 亿元，发股价格 29.4 元），配套募资不超过 200 亿元，即使满额募资，摊薄比例仅约 3%，对每股收益影响有限。 并购完成后，预计公司市值将达 9,000 亿左右，有望在 2026 年超过 1 万亿，煤炭可采储量增加 97.71%，显著提升公司内在价值，未来市值 至少应达到 1.5 万亿，资源储备增加超预期，对长期增长具有重要意义。 大股东持股比例从 69.58%提升至 71.53%，增强分红稳定性和确定性。 该草案明确了收购范围和对价，估值水平偏低，即使考虑配套募资也不 存在摊薄风险，且伴随可采储量大幅增加，将显著超预期增长。 本周动力煤港口价格降至 703 元，下跌 42 元，降幅加快； ...

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing strong performance, with companies like Dayou Energy, Antai Group, and New Dazhou A hitting the daily limit, while Yunmei Energy rose over 7% [1] - Year-to-date performance shows significant increases in stock prices for major coal companies, with Dayou Energy up 212.93%, Antai Group up 172.68%, and New Dazhou A up 84.90% [2] - The market is optimistic about coal prices due to a tight supply-demand balance, with expectations of continued strong pricing trends into 2026 [1][3] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities highlights that coal prices have exceeded expectations since the fourth quarter, with a year-on-year increase in thermal power generation of 7.3% in October [1] - The report indicates that inventory levels across various segments remain below last year's figures, suggesting a potential for price increases as seasonal demand rises in late November [1] - Zhongtai Securities recommends a three-pronged investment strategy for the coal sector, focusing on high dividend, low valuation stocks, companies with growth potential, and those benefiting from improved profitability in coking coal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates a positive outlook for the coal industry in 2026, suggesting a new cycle for coal with both short and long-term investment strategies [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on three main lines: - The increasing investment value of coal due to "high dividends and low valuations," encouraging active allocation towards stocks with strong dividend attributes [1] - Emphasizing companies with growth in production capacity and significant profit elasticity, highlighting those that can benefit from the resonance of alpha and beta [1] - Identifying coking coal as a potential beneficiary due to bottoming coal prices and improving profitability, particularly focusing on companies experiencing a turnaround from difficulties [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal industry, driven by supply-demand improvements and price stabilization [3][5][10] - Coal prices showed a significant decline in the first half of 2025 but began to recover in June, with the average price for thermal coal (Q5500) at 695 CNY/ton, down 19% year-on-year, and coking coal at 1497 CNY/ton, down 28% year-on-year [4][5] - The report anticipates a sustainable improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a potential reduction in domestic coal supply exceeding 100 million tons due to the exit of pre-approved production capacity [5][49] Group 2 - The demand for coal is expected to rebound, particularly in the electricity sector, with a projected growth in coal consumption if electricity generation increases by over 3% in 2026 [7][9] - The chemical sector is also expected to maintain strong coal consumption growth, supported by China's strategic focus on coal chemical development [9] - The steel industry is projected to see increased coal demand due to government initiatives aimed at stabilizing growth, with an average annual increase of around 4% in value added expected from 2025 to 2026 [9] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with high dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua Energy and Zhongmei Energy, which are expected to benefit from the new coal cycle [11] - Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Huayang Co. are highlighted for their potential due to their own capacity growth and significant profit elasticity [11] - The report suggests that companies in a turnaround situation, particularly in the coking coal sector, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Pingmei Shenma Energy, are likely to benefit from improved profitability [11]

国家发改委近期在价格竞争方面采取了哪些措施？ 国家发改委价格司在周四召开了一次价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。会议 指出，目前低价格或扰乱市场价格秩序的问题依然存在，并强调政府将持续推 进相关工作，以治理企业无序竞争行为，维护市场良好秩序，助力企业高质量 国际市场大宗商品期货价格上涨，天然气和原油价格下降，北半球供暖 季支撑能源需求，南半球多雨影响印尼、澳大利亚出货，加剧全球供应 不确定性，支撑国内煤炭需求及定价。 随着封航解除，北港现货煤紧缺情况将迅速反映到价格上，从供需和库 存端来看，煤炭价格预计将进一步走强，建议关注具有较大弹性的标的 如兖矿能源、潞安环能等。 发展。这表明政策端对低价或无序竞争状态容忍度较低，并具有一致性。这一 事件也让我们对行业未来合同产能退出及明年（2026 年）产能减少的不确定 性有所打消，预计未来对产能控制仍将严格。 迎接煤炭新周期 - 港口煤价震荡，需求提升可期 20251130 摘要 主要煤炭产地如山西、内蒙古和新疆的产量受多种因素影响，预计 11 月、12 月起不会有明显增加，其中山西存在大量问题产能难以释放，内 蒙古面临产能指标退出难题，导致供给收缩预期增强。 国家发改 ...

迎接煤炭新周期 - 超跌布局时点？20251123 摘要 2026 年煤炭长协机制更加市场化，允许浮动定价和供需双方自主协商， 取消年度最低要求，但长协企业享有运力优先配置权。煤炭企业在高煤 价时盈利弹性增加，但在煤价下行时利润保障减弱。 焦煤期货价格大幅回落受基本面和技术面双重影响，包括国内矿井复产、 进口量增加、钢厂利润下滑及大商所交割标准调整。技术因素是主导， 预计明年 1 月后可能缓解并迎来再次上涨。 本周港口动力煤价格持平，焦煤价格下跌，动力煤坑口价格上涨，炼焦 煤价格回落，反映出不同环节供需不一致。需关注各环节供需一致性。 全国 25 省样本电厂库存与去年同期基本持平略低，可用天数下降，日 耗水平上升。环渤海港库存增加，但年同比仍下滑，船舶数量同比高增， 短期累库无需过度担心。 国际动力煤期货价格小幅上涨，原油期货价格下降。北方供暖需求对动 力煤价格形成利好。 11 月上旬水电同比增速下降，火电同比增速转负，清洁能源挤占火电空 间。总发电量增速放缓也拖累了火电竞争力。 冬季用电高峰将至，需求预计快速增长，但超产核查等因素抑制产能利 用率，供给端偏紧格局未变。预计未来几个月动力煤价将继续上涨，涨 幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is entering a new upward cycle, with significant improvements in financial performance, driven by flexible pricing mechanisms and a favorable market environment [1][6]. Price Dynamics - The trend of bottom recovery in coal prices is clear, with a narrowing year-on-year decline. The average spot price of thermal coal in Q3 was 672 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 20.7% year-on-year but an increase of 6.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average spot price of coking coal was 1562 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 17.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.8% [1]. Long-term Contract Prices - Long-term contract prices have completed their bottoming out, with thermal coal contract prices averaging 669 CNY/ton in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [2]. - Coking coal long-term contract prices averaged 1448 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 29.6% [2]. Production and Sales - There is a notable divergence in the production and sales of self-produced coal among listed companies. For instance, Yongtai Energy saw an increase of 8.2% in production, while Lanhua Sci-Tech experienced a significant decline of 69.8% [3]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased year-on-year, with the lowest decline at 5.7% for Lu'an Huanneng and the largest at 34.1% for Yongtai Energy [3]. Financial Performance - The coal sector's revenue decreased by 11.1% year-on-year but increased by 12.1% quarter-on-quarter. The thermal coal segment had the smallest year-on-year decline at 6.7% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 24.0% year-on-year but rose by 21.3% quarter-on-quarter, with thermal coal showing the least decline [4]. Fund Holdings - The fund holdings in the coal sector increased to 0.65% in Q3, with a slight quarter-on-quarter rise. The coal sector's market value accounted for 1.50% of the total market value, showing a decrease of 0.18% [5]. - China Shenhua holds the largest market value among individual stocks in the coal sector, with Lu'an Huanneng showing the highest growth rate in holdings [5]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is recommended for active allocation as it enters a new cycle, with both trading and fundamental aspects resonating positively [6]. - Specific stocks recommended include Yancoal Energy, Shanxi Coal International, and China Shenhua for value investment [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][27]. Core Viewpoints - The new upward cycle in the coal industry has been confirmed, with the profitability of thermal coal improving faster than that of coking coal [9]. - The current coal market is characterized by a clear trend of price recovery, with significant narrowing of year-on-year declines [9][13]. - The financial performance of the coal sector has shown substantial improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with revenue, profit, and operating cash flow all increasing [7][19]. Price Dynamics - Spot prices for thermal coal have shown a clear rebound trend, with the average price in Q3 being 672 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5% [5]. - Coking coal prices averaged 1562 RMB/ton in Q3, with a year-on-year decline of 17.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.8% [5]. - Long-term contract prices for thermal coal averaged 669 RMB/ton in Q3, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5][17]. Production and Sales - There is a notable divergence in the production and sales of self-produced coal among listed companies, with some companies like Yongtai Energy showing a significant increase in production (up 8.2% year-on-year) while others like Lanhua Sci-Tech saw a drastic decline (down 69.8% year-on-year) [6][19]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal has decreased year-on-year across the board, with the lowest decline seen in Lu'an Huaneng (down 5.7%) and the largest in Yongtai Energy (down 34.1%) [6]. Financial Performance - The coal sector's revenue decreased by 11.1% year-on-year but increased by 12.1% quarter-on-quarter, with thermal coal showing the smallest year-on-year decline of 6.7% [7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 24.0% year-on-year but rose by 21.3% quarter-on-quarter, with thermal coal experiencing a smaller decline of 16.3% year-on-year [7]. Holdings and Market Position - Fund holdings in the coal sector increased to 0.65% in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.10 percentage points [8]. - China Shenhua holds the largest market value in coal sector holdings, while Lu'an Huaneng has shown the highest growth in holding value [8][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively allocating resources in the coal sector, highlighting stocks such as Yancoal, Shanxi Coal International, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry as having strong potential [8].

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing a new cycle with multiple favorable catalysts leading to prices exceeding expectations. The latest data shows coking coal port prices rising to 1,710 RMB, indicating strong demand post-National Day holiday, contrary to earlier predictions of a demand drop [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Coal Price Trends**: Recent significant price increases have been observed, with Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal thermal coal prices rising by 39 RMB this week, marking the largest weekly increase this year. Coking coal prices at ports have increased by 80 RMB [2]. - **Inventory Levels**: As of October 16, power plant inventories across 25 provinces are approximately 130 million tons, down 1.5% year-on-year. The inventory at Bohai Rim ports has also decreased, but the overall inventory situation is neutral to optimistic due to the upcoming heating season [4]. - **Import and Supply Dynamics**: September coal imports fell by 3.3% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 11.1% over the first nine months. The fourth quarter is expected to see lower import volumes compared to the previous year, indicating potential supply tightness [6][7]. - **Challenges in Supply**: The fourth quarter faces challenges such as increased safety inspections and adverse weather conditions, which may tighten supply further [9]. - **Demand Factors**: Industrial electricity demand remains strong due to companies rushing to meet deadlines ahead of new tariffs on Chinese goods. Non-electric coal demand, particularly from the steel industry, is also robust [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Energy Market Impact**: Despite a decline in Brent and WTI crude oil prices, coal futures in Europe have risen, indicating a supportive trend for the domestic market [5]. - **Hydropower Performance**: Hydropower has shown improvement since September, but is expected to decline as it enters a dry season, reducing its impact on thermal power [8]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to increase positions in coal stocks, shifting focus from leading blue-chip stocks to more elastic stocks. Key companies to watch include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and Lu'an Environmental Energy [12][13]. Specific Company Recommendations - **Thermal Coal**: Recommended companies include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group, Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. Yanzhou is highlighted for its strong performance in both A and H shares and its growth potential from new mining projects [13][15]. - **Coking Coal**: Lu'an Environmental Energy is recommended for its significant earnings elasticity in coking coal, along with Pingmei Shenma Group, Huaibei Mining, and Shanxi Coking Coal, which have high growth potential [14]. Conclusion - The coal market is poised for a strong performance in the coming months, driven by robust demand and tightening supply. Investors are encouraged to capitalize on this opportunity by focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential.