Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].

煤炭行业：原煤和陕晋蒙三省国有 重点煤矿煤炭月度产量均下降，三 大港口库存继续减少 国内动力煤和澳洲价格环比上月继续上涨，南非和欧洲三港动力煤离岸价格环 比上月继续下跌。截至 8 月 22 日，秦皇岛动力煤山西优混 5500 平仓价格 702.00 元/吨，环比上月涨 63 元/吨，涨幅为 9.86%。截至 8 月 22 日，澳大利 亚纽卡斯尔港 NEWC 动力煤离岸价格 110.80 美元/吨，环比上月上涨 1.60 美 元/吨，涨幅为 1.47%；南非理查德 RB 动力煤离岸价格 89.70 美元/吨，环比 上月下跌 4.20 美元/吨，跌幅为 4.47%；欧洲三港 DES ARA 动力煤离岸价格 98.70 美元/吨，环比上月下跌 3.70 美元/吨，跌幅为 3.61%。 7 月，原煤月度产量环比同比下降；陕晋蒙三省国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量环 比均下降；晋蒙同比下降，陕同比上升。7 月，原煤月度产量为 38098.70 万 吨，环比下降 4008.7 万吨，降幅为 9.52%；国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量：陕 西产 2065.20 万吨，同比上升 64 万吨，涨幅为 1.26%，环比下降 182.8 万吨， ...

煤炭ETF跟踪的是中证煤炭指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从A股市场中选取涉及煤炭开采、 加工及相关业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映煤炭行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数 聚焦于煤炭行业的配置，覆盖了行业内不同规模的企业，具有显著的行业代表性和市场影响力。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国海证券指出，动力煤方面，高温天气加持下，煤炭供需关系延续优化，港口煤炭库存保持去化，港口 煤价继续上涨。生产端，山西地区样本煤矿产能利用率延续收紧；运输端受产地到港发运倒挂影响，市 场发运环比下降。进口煤方面，印尼煤价格优势有所恢复，终端对低卡印尼煤招标增加；澳煤货源偏 紧，报价上涨且回国成本倒挂，进口约束短期依旧存在。需求端，迎峰度夏之际电厂继续补库，高温天 气促进日耗与火电需求陡峭提升，利好动力煤消费和价格提升。炼焦煤方面，本周供应回升，样本煤矿 产能利用率环比提升；进口端，蒙煤市场通关延续低位运行。需求端铁水产量仍处高位，刚需有一定支 撑，焦企对性价比较高的资源适当提库。库存方面，焦煤生产企业库存去化显著。整体来看，炼焦煤供 需格局短期有所改善、煤价有所上涨，但后续在煤矿预期恢复生产与钢材淡季之下，预计焦煤 ...