Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the coal sector, maintained for the next 3-6 months [5]. Core Insights - Domestic thermal coal prices and Australian coal prices have continued to rise month-on-month, while South African and European coal prices have decreased [3][15]. - In July, the monthly production of raw coal decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with significant declines in the production from key state-owned coal mines in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi [2][17]. - The total coal inventory at the three major ports has continued to decline month-on-month, while the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has increased [2][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of August 22, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 702.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 63 CNY/ton, or 9.86% month-on-month [9][10]. - The price of thermal coal from Inner Mongolia and Shanxi also saw month-on-month increases [9][10]. 2. Production - In July, the monthly production of raw coal was 38,098.70 million tons, a decrease of 4,008.7 million tons, or 9.52% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 937.9 million tons, or 2.40% [17]. - Key state-owned coal mines in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi reported mixed results, with Shanxi and Inner Mongolia showing declines while Shaanxi saw a slight increase [19]. 3. Inventory - As of August 22, the total coal inventory at the three major ports was 12,344,000 tons, a decrease of 988,000 tons, or 7.41% month-on-month, but an increase of 796,000 tons, or 6.89% year-on-year [28]. - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 940,400 tons, an increase of 58,200 tons, or 6.60% month-on-month [36]. 4. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs have continued to rise, with the CBCFI from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai reporting 31.30 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 10.21% [3][43]. - International shipping costs have also increased, with the coal shipping cost from Newcastle, Australia to China at 15.60 USD/ton, a rise of 10.64% month-on-month [3][43].

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) saw a net inflow of over 570 million yuan yesterday, indicating strong investor interest in the coal sector [1] - In the thermal coal market, high temperatures have led to an optimized supply-demand relationship, with port coal inventories continuing to decrease and port coal prices rising [1] - Production in Shanxi region shows a tightening capacity utilization rate, while transportation is affected by the cost inversion from production areas to ports, leading to a decrease in market shipments [1] Group 2 - The price advantage of Indonesian coal has recovered, with increased tenders for low-calorie Indonesian coal, while Australian coal remains tight with rising prices [1] - Power plants are continuing to replenish inventories in response to high temperatures, which boosts daily consumption and thermal power demand, positively impacting thermal coal consumption and prices [1] - For coking coal, supply has rebounded this week with an increase in capacity utilization rates, while iron and steel production remains high, providing some support for demand [1] Group 3 - Coking coal prices have seen some increases, but future price growth is expected to be limited due to anticipated production recovery in coal mines and the seasonal downturn in steel demand [1] - Coking enterprises are experiencing cost increases due to rising coking coal prices, which has led to a decrease in production enthusiasm [1] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises have significantly decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [1] Group 4 - The coal ETF tracks the China Securities Coal Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and related businesses [2] - The index is representative of the coal industry and covers companies of various sizes, showcasing significant market influence [2]