Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with a forecast to return to the levels seen in Q3 2024 [1][2]. Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the average price of thermal coal was 675.7 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8%. The lowest price in Q2 2025 was 631.6 yuan/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year and 12.43% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - From late June to late August 2025, prices rebounded from 609 yuan/ton to 704 yuan/ton due to increased summer demand and reduced supply [1]. Industry Outlook - Since mid-April 2025, production cuts have been observed in domestic regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, as well as in Indonesia, with monthly imports decreasing by approximately 10 million tons [2]. - The ongoing supply-side policies are expected to further tighten production, with a theoretical impact on supply estimated at around 400 million tons [2]. - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is anticipated to see a gradual release of non-electric demand, particularly in the coal chemical sector, which has maintained over 10% year-on-year growth in coal consumption [2]. Fund Holdings Situation - In Q2 2025, most coal sector listed companies saw a year-on-year decline in fund holdings, with the largest drop recorded by Gansu Energy and New Energy [3]. - However, compared to Q1 2025, most companies in the coal sector experienced an increase in fund holdings, with the largest increases seen in Huabei Mining, New Energy, and Haohua Energy [3]. Mid-Year Report Summary - In Q2 2025, the coal sector's operating revenue decreased by 20.1% year-on-year and 4.06% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.7% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Operating cash flow decreased year-on-year, and financing cash outflows increased, with a slight rise in the asset-liability ratio [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high spot price elasticity stocks, stable growth companies, and those benefiting from production recovery, including specific companies like Lu'an Huanneng, Jinko Coal Industry, and China Shenhua [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector experienced a decline of 2.20% last week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel down 2.58% and long products down 2.32% [3][11] - Iron water production increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.8% for blast furnaces as of June 20, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.21 percentage points [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products rose, with a total consumption of 884.2 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 16.08 million tons [3][37] - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 913.1 million tons, down 14.37 million tons week-on-week, and down 28.19% year-on-year [3][45] - The average price of ordinary steel decreased slightly, with the comprehensive index at 3361.1 yuan/ton, down 3.71 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][51] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces increased to 155 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, while electric arc furnace profits remained negative at -357.04 yuan/ton [3][59] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector underperformed the market, with a 2.20% decline compared to a 0.45% drop in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [11][13] 2. Supply - As of June 20, the average daily iron water production was 2.4218 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.57% [26] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 54.5%, down 2.19 percentage points week-on-week [26] 3. Demand - The total consumption of five major steel products reached 884.2 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16.08 million tons [37] - The transaction volume of construction steel was 97,000 tons, down 0.22% week-on-week [37] 4. Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 913.1 million tons, down 1.55% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory was 425.8 million tons, down 0.30% week-on-week [45] 5. Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3361.1 yuan/ton, down 0.11% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.81% week-on-week [59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing intense supply and demand dynamics, with short-term fluctuations expected [3] - Despite the challenges in the steel industry, including prominent supply-demand conflicts and overall profit decline, the implementation of "stabilization growth" policies is anticipated to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [4] - The industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, benefiting from high-end steel products and companies with strong cost control and scale effects [4] Supply Summary - As of June 13, 2025, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4161 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.19 thousand tons, but a year-on-year increase of 5.86 thousand tons [26] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.6%, down 0.07 percentage points week-on-week [26] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.486 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 225.2 thousand tons, or 2.92% [26] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.681 million tons as of June 13, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 140.7 thousand tons, or 1.59% [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 100 thousand tons, down 6.18% week-on-week [35] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 148.3 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 66.1 million square meters [35] Inventory Summary - The social inventory of five major steel products was 9.275 million tons as of June 13, 2025, down 3.53 thousand tons week-on-week, or 0.38% [43] - The factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.271 million tons, down 5.72 thousand tons week-on-week, or 1.32% [43] Price Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,364.8 yuan/ton as of June 13, 2025, down 19.23 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 0.57% [48] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,616.8 yuan/ton, down 7.72 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 0.12% [48] Profit Summary - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 135 yuan/ton as of June 13, 2025, an increase of 36.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 36.36% [56] - The average profit margin for 247 steel enterprises was 58.44% as of June 13, 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [56] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Shandong Steel and Hualing Steel [4] - Companies with excellent growth potential and restructuring capabilities, such as Baosteel and Maanshan Steel, are also recommended [4] - Special steel enterprises benefiting from the new energy cycle, such as Jiuli Special Materials and Fangda Special Steel, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has faced a decline of 0.18% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments showing varied performance [3][11] - The report indicates a decrease in iron and steel production, with a notable drop in the utilization rates of both blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces [3][25] - Steel consumption has also decreased, with a significant drop in the five major steel products [3][30] - Inventory levels for steel products have declined, both in social and factory inventories, indicating a tightening supply [3][43] - Steel prices have shown a downward trend, with both common and special steel price indices decreasing [3][50] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was a decline of 0.18%, while the broader market (CSI 300) increased by 0.88% [11] - Specific segments such as special steel and plate steel saw declines of 0.28% and 0.77%, respectively, while long products increased by 0.14% [3][13] 2. Supply Data - As of June 6, the average daily molten iron production was 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 thousand tons week-on-week [25] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.7%, down by 0.04 percentage points, while electric arc furnaces were at 58.7%, down by 0.33 percentage points [25] - The total production of the five major steel products was 7.711 million tons, a decrease of 0.49% week-on-week [25] 3. Demand Data - The consumption of the five major steel products was 8.822 million tons, down by 3.46% week-on-week [30] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 106,000 tons, showing a slight increase of 4.33% week-on-week [35] 4. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of the five major steel products was 9.31 million tons, down by 0.16% week-on-week [43] - Factory inventory was 4.328 million tons, also down by 0.06% week-on-week [43] 5. Price Trends - The common steel price index was 3,384.0 CNY/ton, down by 0.33% week-on-week [50] - The special steel price index was 6,624.5 CNY/ton, down by 0.16% week-on-week [50] 6. Profitability - The average molten iron cost was 2,201 CNY/ton, a decrease of 37.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [57] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 99 CNY/ton, an increase of 11.24% week-on-week [57] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite current challenges, the steel industry may see a recovery due to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [4] - Companies with strong cost control and high gross margins, such as Shandong Steel and Hualing Steel, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a slight increase of 0.13% this week, underperforming compared to the broader market, which rose by 0.59% [11] - The report indicates that the production of iron and steel has decreased slightly, with a daily average iron output of 2.4012 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.10 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 15.37 tons [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products has increased, with a total consumption of 9.486 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 48.10 thousand tons [3][37] - Social inventory of five major steel products has decreased, with a total of 11.248 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 51.90 thousand tons [3][45] - The price of ordinary steel has decreased, with a comprehensive index of 3,457.7 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 25.06 yuan/ton [3][51] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was 0.13% increase, lagging behind the market [11] - The special steel sector increased by 1.74%, while the long product sector rose by 1.06% [13] 2. Core Data - Iron and steel production has decreased slightly, with a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.2% [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products increased by 5.34% week-on-week [32][37] - Social inventory decreased by 4.41% week-on-week [45] 3. Price and Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,457.7 yuan/ton, down 0.72% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 73 yuan/ton, down 32.41% week-on-week [59] 4. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating various earnings and P/E ratios [76]