智通财经APP获悉，民生证券发布研报称，2025年上半年，动力煤价格持续下降，25H1动力煤均价为 675.7元/吨，同比下降22.8%。进入7月后迎峰度夏需求旺盛，叠加供给端有所收缩助力煤价反弹，价格 自6月下旬的609元/吨反弹至8月下旬的704元/吨。当前煤价处于淡旺季交界，贸易商拿货情绪较低，预 计未来一到两周煤价或保持小幅震荡，但伴随港口库存持续下降，叠加供给在查超产政策下继续收缩， 基本面持续改善下煤价将再次进入上行通道，有望淡季延续涨势，回到24Q3水平。 民生证券主要观点如下： 市场回顾：25H1动力煤价持续下行 从煤炭板块上市公司的基金持仓份额来看，上半年大多数上市公司基金持仓份额同比下降，其中降幅最 大的公司为甘肃能化、新集能源、恒源煤电。环比25Q1来看，煤炭板块大部分上市公司持仓份额环比 提升，仅山煤国际、淮河能源、永泰能源三家持仓下降；持仓份额环比提升最多的三家公司为淮北矿 业、新集能源、昊华能源。 中报总结：25Q2板块盈利同环比下滑 25Q2，煤炭板块营业收入同比下降20.1%，环比下降4.06%；归母净利润同比下降36.7%，环比下降 16%；期间费用同比下降，环比增长、费率同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector experienced a decline of 2.20% last week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel down 2.58% and long products down 2.32% [3][11] - Iron water production increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.8% for blast furnaces as of June 20, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.21 percentage points [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products rose, with a total consumption of 884.2 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 16.08 million tons [3][37] - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 913.1 million tons, down 14.37 million tons week-on-week, and down 28.19% year-on-year [3][45] - The average price of ordinary steel decreased slightly, with the comprehensive index at 3361.1 yuan/ton, down 3.71 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][51] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces increased to 155 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, while electric arc furnace profits remained negative at -357.04 yuan/ton [3][59] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector underperformed the market, with a 2.20% decline compared to a 0.45% drop in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [11][13] 2. Supply - As of June 20, the average daily iron water production was 2.4218 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.57% [26] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 54.5%, down 2.19 percentage points week-on-week [26] 3. Demand - The total consumption of five major steel products reached 884.2 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16.08 million tons [37] - The transaction volume of construction steel was 97,000 tons, down 0.22% week-on-week [37] 4. Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 913.1 million tons, down 1.55% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory was 425.8 million tons, down 0.30% week-on-week [45] 5. Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3361.1 yuan/ton, down 0.11% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.81% week-on-week [59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing intense supply and demand dynamics, with short-term fluctuations expected [3] - Despite the challenges in the steel industry, including prominent supply-demand conflicts and overall profit decline, the implementation of "stabilization growth" policies is anticipated to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [4] - The industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, benefiting from high-end steel products and companies with strong cost control and scale effects [4] Supply Summary - As of June 13, 2025, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4161 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.19 thousand tons, but a year-on-year increase of 5.86 thousand tons [26] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.6%, down 0.07 percentage points week-on-week [26] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.486 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 225.2 thousand tons, or 2.92% [26] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.681 million tons as of June 13, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 140.7 thousand tons, or 1.59% [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 100 thousand tons, down 6.18% week-on-week [35] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 148.3 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 66.1 million square meters [35] Inventory Summary - The social inventory of five major steel products was 9.275 million tons as of June 13, 2025, down 3.53 thousand tons week-on-week, or 0.38% [43] - The factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.271 million tons, down 5.72 thousand tons week-on-week, or 1.32% [43] Price Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,364.8 yuan/ton as of June 13, 2025, down 19.23 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 0.57% [48] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,616.8 yuan/ton, down 7.72 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 0.12% [48] Profit Summary - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 135 yuan/ton as of June 13, 2025, an increase of 36.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 36.36% [56] - The average profit margin for 247 steel enterprises was 58.44% as of June 13, 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [56] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Shandong Steel and Hualing Steel [4] - Companies with excellent growth potential and restructuring capabilities, such as Baosteel and Maanshan Steel, are also recommended [4] - Special steel enterprises benefiting from the new energy cycle, such as Jiuli Special Materials and Fangda Special Steel, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has faced a decline of 0.18% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments showing varied performance [3][11] - The report indicates a decrease in iron and steel production, with a notable drop in the utilization rates of both blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces [3][25] - Steel consumption has also decreased, with a significant drop in the five major steel products [3][30] - Inventory levels for steel products have declined, both in social and factory inventories, indicating a tightening supply [3][43] - Steel prices have shown a downward trend, with both common and special steel price indices decreasing [3][50] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was a decline of 0.18%, while the broader market (CSI 300) increased by 0.88% [11] - Specific segments such as special steel and plate steel saw declines of 0.28% and 0.77%, respectively, while long products increased by 0.14% [3][13] 2. Supply Data - As of June 6, the average daily molten iron production was 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 thousand tons week-on-week [25] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.7%, down by 0.04 percentage points, while electric arc furnaces were at 58.7%, down by 0.33 percentage points [25] - The total production of the five major steel products was 7.711 million tons, a decrease of 0.49% week-on-week [25] 3. Demand Data - The consumption of the five major steel products was 8.822 million tons, down by 3.46% week-on-week [30] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 106,000 tons, showing a slight increase of 4.33% week-on-week [35] 4. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of the five major steel products was 9.31 million tons, down by 0.16% week-on-week [43] - Factory inventory was 4.328 million tons, also down by 0.06% week-on-week [43] 5. Price Trends - The common steel price index was 3,384.0 CNY/ton, down by 0.33% week-on-week [50] - The special steel price index was 6,624.5 CNY/ton, down by 0.16% week-on-week [50] 6. Profitability - The average molten iron cost was 2,201 CNY/ton, a decrease of 37.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [57] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 99 CNY/ton, an increase of 11.24% week-on-week [57] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite current challenges, the steel industry may see a recovery due to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [4] - Companies with strong cost control and high gross margins, such as Shandong Steel and Hualing Steel, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a slight increase of 0.13% this week, underperforming compared to the broader market, which rose by 0.59% [11] - The report indicates that the production of iron and steel has decreased slightly, with a daily average iron output of 2.4012 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.10 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 15.37 tons [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products has increased, with a total consumption of 9.486 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 48.10 thousand tons [3][37] - Social inventory of five major steel products has decreased, with a total of 11.248 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 51.90 thousand tons [3][45] - The price of ordinary steel has decreased, with a comprehensive index of 3,457.7 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 25.06 yuan/ton [3][51] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was 0.13% increase, lagging behind the market [11] - The special steel sector increased by 1.74%, while the long product sector rose by 1.06% [13] 2. Core Data - Iron and steel production has decreased slightly, with a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.2% [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products increased by 5.34% week-on-week [32][37] - Social inventory decreased by 4.41% week-on-week [45] 3. Price and Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,457.7 yuan/ton, down 0.72% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 73 yuan/ton, down 32.41% week-on-week [59] 4. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating various earnings and P/E ratios [76]