智通财经记者 | 龙力 "本来打算满仓过节的，但是这几天市场的波动有点大，所以又有些动摇了。"资深投资者郑先生对智通财经表示。 十一小长假将至，"持股还是持币过节"成为摆在许多投资者面前一道艰难的选择题。 作为A股市场上最重要的参与者之一，私募们将维持怎样的仓位来过节？ "不做仓位调整，接近满仓过国庆小长假。"华辉创富投资总经理袁华明对智通财经表示。 "节前仓位可能依旧保持5-7成"，小禹投资基金经理黎仕禹对智通财经谈到，"当前市场处于震荡行情，倘若仓位过轻可能会出现踏空行情的情况；而仓位过 重可能在市场杀跌回调时候比较'受伤'，所以'半仓做滚动，适当进行高抛低吸'可能是当前阶段比较合适的策略。" 维持较高仓位过节是很多私募的共识。 智通财经统计了过去十年（即2015年至2024年）万得全A指数在十一假期之后不同时间段内的表现情况。 数据显示，过去十年间，万得全A指数节后1日、5日、20日上涨概率均为70%，节后10日上涨概率为80%，但是不同年份节后各个时间段内的涨跌情况并不 完全一致。以2024年为例，万得全A指数节后首日大涨7.14%，节后5日反而下跌1.57%，节后10日和节后20日分别上涨0.06% ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to show a strong trend with trading sentiment remaining high, driven by active capital inflow and favorable policies, resulting in a trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for several consecutive days [2][3] Private Equity Fund Activity - Private equity funds are expressing optimism for the market's future through significant capital investments, with the billion-yuan private equity position index rising by 8.16 percentage points to 82.29%, marking the largest weekly increase of the year [2][3] - The stock private equity position index has also increased for the second consecutive week, reaching 74.86%, indicating a growing willingness among private equity to increase their positions [3] Position Distribution - Over 50% of stock private equity funds are fully invested, with the proportion of fully invested billion-yuan private equity rising sharply from 37.16% to 61.97%, an increase of 24.81 percentage points [4][7][9] - The distribution of positions shows a slight increase in fully invested private equity funds, while medium and low-position private equity funds have seen a decrease, reflecting an overall increase in risk appetite among private equity institutions [4][7] Future Market Outlook - The future of the A-share market is expected to be influenced by both domestic and international factors, with supportive macro policies and a potential influx of foreign capital due to the valuation advantages of A-shares [10] - The market is anticipated to experience a balanced style, with opportunities in both growth and value sectors, as well as a focus on core assets with clear growth logic and strong cash flow [11]

Core Insights - The A-share market continues to show a strong upward trend, driven by high trading volumes and positive policy support, with transaction volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan for multiple consecutive trading days [2][3] - Private equity funds are increasingly optimistic about the market outlook, as evidenced by a significant rise in the positions of large private equity funds, with the billion-yuan private equity position index increasing by 8.16 percentage points to 82.29%, marking the largest weekly increase of the year [2][3][4] - The overall sentiment among private equity institutions is shifting from cautious to aggressive, as indicated by the increase in full-position private equity funds from 37.16% to 61.97%, a rise of 24.81 percentage points [7][9] Market Dynamics - The stock private equity position index has risen for two consecutive weeks, reaching 74.86%, indicating a growing willingness among private equity to increase their positions [3][4] - The influx of retail investor capital, along with rising financing balances and active personal investment account openings, has contributed to the sustained upward momentum in the A-share market [3][10] Position Adjustments - The distribution of positions among private equity funds shows that 54.80% are fully invested, while medium and low positions have slightly decreased, reflecting an overall increase in risk appetite among private equity institutions [4][9] - The adjustment pattern of "reducing medium positions while increasing full positions" among billion-yuan private equity funds indicates a strong bullish sentiment [9][10] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is poised for a "bull market second half," supported by domestic macro policies aimed at stabilizing growth and improving corporate profitability [10][11] - The market is expected to attract foreign capital due to its valuation advantages, especially as global conditions improve with the end of U.S. interest rate hikes [11][12]